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Dragon Riders GBP/JPY

  • #3,961
  • Feb 16, 2015 12:05pm Feb 16, 2015 12:05pm
I agree with FX-Ray... watching exactly: 181.52, we could get stack or return from there..

Happy Trades
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #3,962
  • Feb 16, 2015 12:06pm Feb 16, 2015 12:06pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} Still think was a bad idea and I should have been out already, but Tsipras currently playing in my hand with Greece drama. Thats SL , classics. Low 181,777 now. I know its gonna hit me before I click post, coz Nikkei semms to start falling, but, was a nice feeling for a second. Edit: Yes, am out here. Well, not out, but deleveraged a bit. {image}
Sorry buddy, I think unless the inflation number comes out positive and better than expected tomorrow, GBP won't go beyond the 68.2%.

Quoting anima999
Agreed except I'm looking for 182.35 as the trigger for a down move.
Looks like we do have a leg down already.
If u luv happiness, start w/ discomfort, make friends w/ pain and failure.
100 Hits 0 Miss All Time Return: 35.8%
  • #3,963
  • Feb 16, 2015 12:09pm Feb 16, 2015 12:09pm
Quoting FXSayWhat
{quote} I thought you were gonna go take a holiday, too, and I think you should have done that. Sorry buddy, I think unless the inflation number comes out positive and better than expected tomorrow, GBP won't go beyond the 68.2%.
Am kinda having a holliday. No rough trades here. And loaded quite heavy on Eur/Gbp shorts. So far rolling well. But Yen part of my portfolio not behaves. I knew Yen is gonna screw me, but sold it just from habit. I like selling Yen
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #3,964
  • Feb 16, 2015 12:10pm Feb 16, 2015 12:10pm
it's all up to usd/jpy. The damn 118.30 won't give in. Seriously, that thing is in need of a permanent penetration. Just look at the chart.

Despite it being a US holiday, I'll still be willing to bet that it was room to fall. It's just such a precarious position.
  • #3,965
  • Feb 16, 2015 12:15pm Feb 16, 2015 12:15pm
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} Hope you are still in Ally, am watching 181.60/50; with a break I'll aim 179.80/70
taking partials at next test 181.60/50, with remaining stop above 182.40/30, next target 179.80/70. Im out, take care
  • #3,966
  • Feb 16, 2015 12:17pm Feb 16, 2015 12:17pm
Quoting Vermillion
it's all up to usd/jpy. The damn 118.30 won't give in. Seriously, that thing is in need of a permanent penetration. Just look at the chart. Despite it being a US holiday, I'll still be willing to bet that it was room to fall. It's just such a precarious position.
In my charts is a consolidation mid @ 118,185- 118,695. Very hard to break on both sides. Think this zone makes a mid of chop till market decides if BoJ hike rumour or not.

K, last thrust down cleared my G/J longs. Finally. I really hate Yen , luck rest of portfolio behaves.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #3,967
  • Feb 16, 2015 12:39pm Feb 16, 2015 12:39pm
Original post here by putting the perspectives in line on last Friday, 2/13.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...01#post8066701
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Price action says it might not be going beyond the 68.2% level, 183.00
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...01#post8066701
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...03#post8071103
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In NY section, and here we goes...
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GBP CPI due 15 hours. Good luck.
If u luv happiness, start w/ discomfort, make friends w/ pain and failure.
100 Hits 0 Miss All Time Return: 35.8%
  • #3,968
  • Feb 16, 2015 12:40pm Feb 16, 2015 12:40pm
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} Hope you are still in Ally, am watching 181.60/50; with a break I'll aim 179.80/70
I sure am

I am lookin at 179.80 ... strong resistance level there
  • #3,969
  • Feb 16, 2015 12:41pm Feb 16, 2015 12:41pm
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} taking partials at next test 181.60/50, with remaining stop above 182.40/30, next target 179.80/70. Im out, take care
ah sorry I missed you but had to have some lunch
  • #3,970
  • Feb 16, 2015 12:56pm Feb 16, 2015 12:56pm
The inflation number will be out 15 hours. GJ would most likely stay around the 181.00 level before the CPI releases.
Sure, if the CPI dips again, we would most likely put the 181.00 level behind us.

Now, what if the inflation number comes out better than expected?

I would like to have everyone keep this in mind that what we are having is just the FIRST dip in the month of Feb. after a nine-day worth of rally.

Keep this in mind tho, rate hike is still on the table although Carney himself (not BOE) might have somewhat hinted a rate cute last week.

Bull momentum has yet ended unless the 183.00 level is tested again.
Attached Image
If u luv happiness, start w/ discomfort, make friends w/ pain and failure.
100 Hits 0 Miss All Time Return: 35.8%
  • #3,971
  • Feb 16, 2015 12:59pm Feb 16, 2015 12:59pm
Quoting AllyB
{quote} ah sorry I missed you but had to have some lunch
Bon apptit!
  • #3,972
  • Feb 16, 2015 1:00pm Feb 16, 2015 1:00pm
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} Bon apptit!
um um good!!
  • #3,973
  • Feb 16, 2015 1:10pm Feb 16, 2015 1:10pm
181.70 holding good

whoops I stand corrected
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  • #3,974
  • Feb 16, 2015 1:12pm Feb 16, 2015 1:12pm
Quoting AllyB
171.70 holding good {image}
*181.70
  • #3,975
  • Feb 16, 2015 1:15pm Feb 16, 2015 1:15pm
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} *181.70
thank you for keeping an eye on me ... I need it
  • #3,976
  • Feb 16, 2015 3:39pm Feb 16, 2015 3:39pm
Quoting AllyB
{quote} thank you for keeping an eye on me ... I need it
You're welcome
  • #3,977
  • Feb 16, 2015 3:45pm Feb 16, 2015 3:45pm
Quoting FXSayWhat
The inflation number will be out 15 hours. GJ would most likely stay around the 181.00 level before the CPI releases. Sure, if the CPI dips again, we would most likely put the 181.00 level behind us. Now, what if the inflation number comes out better than expected? I would like to have everyone keep this in mind that what we are having is just the FIRST dip in the month of Feb. after a nine-day worth of rally. Keep this in mind tho, rate hike is still on the table although Carney himself (not BOE) might have somewhat hinted a rate cute last week....
I think the chances of the inflation number coming out better than expected is fairly slim...possible but unlikely.
Carney seemed to be prepping the nation for bad news. A rate hike is way off now; the BOE board were unanimous (two members swung) in voting to keep the interest rate unchanged last time round.

I do have a question though: the forecast is 0.3% which is already 0.2% less than the last figure of 0.5%. If the figure came out as say 0.4%; better than forecast but still down on the previous figure, is that good or bad?
  • #3,978
  • Feb 16, 2015 4:32pm Feb 16, 2015 4:32pm
Quoting anima999
{quote} I think the chances of the inflation number coming out better than expected is fairly slim...possible but unlikely. Carney seemed to be prepping the nation for bad news. A rate hike is way off now; the BOE board were unanimous (two members swung) in voting to keep the interest rate unchanged last time round. I do have a question though: the forecast is 0.3% which is already 0.2% less than the last figure of 0.5%. If the figure came out as say 0.4%; better than forecast but still down on the previous figure, is that good or bad?

And this is exactly why it could happen ... nobody knew what would happen in the EUR/CHF in January ... well, I had a bad feeling about this, but did I know for sure? No ...
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #3,979
  • Feb 16, 2015 4:45pm Feb 16, 2015 4:45pm
I take your point.

Both UK and the Swiss have an election this year - UK May, Swiss October. I think the odds of the BOE hiking rates only days after saying that "inflation is decreasing and may do for some time" just before the election would probably sink the current governement's chances of a re-election. The BOE are supposed to be impartial so for this reason I think they would probably try and sit on any hikes until after the election to try and avoid any alegations of political interference. The Swiss election is a bit further ahead. But as always anything is possible...just unlikely.

Edit:
The government are doing everything they can to get people to spend: letting people cash out pensions but only letting them re-invest a limited ammount in bonds, house purchasing programmes...etc. Raising rates and giving people an excuse to save their money again would counter their policy.
  • #3,980
  • Feb 16, 2015 4:57pm Feb 16, 2015 4:57pm
Quoting anima999
I take your point. Both UK and the Swiss have an election this year.
Think these are very valid arguments, I totally agree. Politicians are cowards, they wont do anything what could screw their reelection. Moreover, to get reelected, think they should be posting some good numbers eh? Also these justify hike laterz.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
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