Trading is as simple as ABCD

Hi Clive
You have unleashed a demon in me, have spent most of the night churning what you said.

then the light bulb goes of in my head when I get out my pit.

If you can have the 15 min represented as the 100lwma,why not the 5min with a 33 or 34lwma .

Further still the 400lwma to represent the I hr.

I know that your main objective is the momentum runs picked out on the 100lwma and verified trend strength on the TTindy min >30 and that is fantastic and works really well .

What I have come up with is a ribbon ma based on the 100 and 34Lwma and a Bi colour ma to represent the 400lwma.
A picture being worth a thousand words I have posted a chart I picked a reasonably strong trending pair to represent what I think is a good scenario to trade.

have to go on a quest for roses chocolate and wine, I will be hanging on your response.

have a great day

My friend you have really got the bit between your teeth now, your line of thought is spot on, you are thinking along the same lines as the Japanese when they came up with their ICHIMOKU Charts, you should be very proud of yourself how logical you think, to me their is no limit to your trading if you keep going this way. Clive as certainly turned the light bulb on in a few of us. Brilliant thinking mate WELL DONE

Hi Dave
maybe I should get you some roses for your comments,
But perhaps a bottle of wine suits more.
Thank you for the support

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=446654

guys im checking this out

trading clives method with pending orders can be down by using the break out option

Hi geanies101

That set up would have signalled on Clive's system as is, so not sure what this is adding? Unless its a better 'picture' for you to see trades? From what I can see Clives method would have signalled the previous abcd also.

No need for Roses or wine but the chocolate is always welcome but I'm more a real ale person if I'm honest......

I know where you're coming from with the light bulb moments after sleeping on something... I use it all the time now when I have a problem or something to work out. Just go to bed thinking about it and as you sleep you're subconscious mind works on it for you so that when you wake up, hey presto , its solved...

Glad to see I've provoked some thoughts that may help you with your trading, thats exactly what this thread is all about helping each other trade better....I'm certainly taking on board your Orphan philosophy so its a 2 way street for sure..

As for using MAs to show the higher timeframe trends , yep Im on board with that for sure. Now what you have to do is find an MA period that you feel reflects the trend most closely on most charts. Now for me thats the 35 lwma. Have a look at the 35lwma on any timeframe I think you will agree its a pretty good number to use as it shows the type of trades we're after, so if I want to see what the other timeframes are doing I just put multiples of the 35lwma on my 1 minute chart, so I would use the following...

1 min trend 35 lwma
5 min trend 35x5=175lwma
15 min trend 35x15= 525lwma
1 hr trend 35x60=2100lwma

Now the theory is that you trade when they all line up. Heres a 1 minute chart of EURUSD showing just that...



Now look a little closer and ask yourself do we really need all those other MAs?? If we're only after 10 or so pips then surely its enough to monitor just one or maybe two at the most?? Eg when the 175 and the 35 line up its pretty good isn't it?? Something else to remember its the actual price thats creating those longer timeframe MA's not the other way round.

But heres something else to look at, when the 175lwma is steepest isn't it almost impossible to get it wrong??? When its steep the price is just moving up strongly , isn't it?? Couldn't you easily extract 10 pips from those steep moves??? Also notice when the moves happen too. Most times its just after the market opens... Bear in mind we're looking at EURUSD here which in fact rarely appears in my TTindy top 3.

Heres what I'm saying, if you're only interested in 10 pips ? Why even worry what the higher timeframes are doing?? price can only go up or down regardless of what timeframe you're looking at, up or down??? Its all the same price action we are trading no matter what timeframe you look at. All we are trying to do is work out whether its going up or down and how likely is it to continue moving up or down..

I use the 100lwma for that purpose if its sloping up steeper than any other pair then it must be trending strongly or at least its our best bet. Therefore I'm interested in it. If I see a slight pullback in the trend I'm looking to enter when price returns back with the trend...

OK so I'm gonna try to summarise where I'm coming from with this strategy and exactly what I'm basing it on...Firstly let me tell you the philosophy behind the strategy.

We are going to follow the money as it comes to the table. We can't beat the big money boys, we certainly don't want to be the other side of their trades thats for sure, so we must just follow them and jump on the back of their trades. We do this by following the strongest trending 1 minute trends that form around market opens like LO and NYO.

So thats the philosophy now heres how I currently propose that we do it...

1) Price can only go up or down, find a chart that is clearly either going up or down so that you have no doubt when you look at it which way to trade. Trade pairs in top 3 of TTindy and over 30+ on trend strength reading. Look for one currency to dominate the TTindy with 3 or 4 pairs or more in the top 8.

2) Confirm with your chart reading skills that the trend that has brought this pair to the top of the TTindy is still in place eg last drive up/down (AB move) took out the previous drive up/down. Just be aware that trends come to an end so check for signs of trend exhaustion, failed drives, break in market structure eg I want to see HHHL's in an uptrend , LLLH's in a downtrend. Any other sequence and I'm suspicious about my trend continuig and so tread carefully..

3) Once you're happy the trend is still intact, look for a pullback (BC move) to support for your entry. I love break and retest of previous support and resistance works very well in strong trenders. In fact it's another confirmation your trend is still in tact. Use CCI signals off of our key levels for entry.

4) Exit is up to you but I'm veering towards the "Hug an Orphan" school of thought whereby we just grab whatever the current move gives us. The secret is to suck out as much as you can from the move until it falters, hopefully due to trading strong trenders this should be higher than normal 1 minute scalping. I'm looking for 10 pips plus most times.

5) The other exit option is when theres strength across the board on one currency, lets say GBP for example. Then we can expect a far bigger move and sometimes hold until the 100lwma slope changes or if we hit some higher timeframe support or resistance level. eg yesterdays High,low or close for instance or weekly,daily pivots.

Heres an example of an ideal type trade I'm looking for from yesterdays LO....




Bottom line is use whatever works for you but just remember it can only go up or down , trade charts where its painfully obvious which way to trade and make sure they are trending strongly and personally if you're only interested in 10 pips or so, why worry what the higher timeframes are doing, thats old news you need to know whats happening right now to grab your 10 pips...

Hi Geanies

Just thought I'd post a chart same as yours to see how the trades showed up , I've also added a chart using Heiken Ashi candles too as I've always liked the simplicity of either up or down. Heiken Ashi candles seem to define that even clearer than normal candlesticks. If we combine a CCI signal with a change of HA candle colour then it looks very good indeed, just seems to add that extra confirmation for entry. I've also found it keeps me out of some bad entries too. Theres an example of this here ,do you see the first CCI signal doesn't cause a HA colour change so keeps us out??





Not sure if AUDUSD was in TTindy at the time but the sloping 100lwma with the price firmly below it is a good sign anyway...

Hi Clive.
Got the valentine goodies and am at this time savouring a nice champagne.
Your post as always gives me food for thought.

I would like to take a bit of time to digest your information probably overnight.
Thank you for all that lovely input as I can usually find a diamond or two within it.

I just want to reply to Mr V quickly and get back to my Lady
All the Best

Hi Mr V
Thank you for your comments.
I like the white charts as they are printer friendly, being a Scott I really should be saving on printer ink, Guess its in my dna.
Having read many of your posts on this thread you have my respect as to your understanding of this trading mallarki.

Confluence is what I see from the one minute up to the one hour the only one I haven't addressed is the half hour which the insersion of a 200lwma would fix.

I think it is cool that Clive has motivated me and others to use our grey matter and arrive at the same destination having taken a different bus.

Hope you are enjoying valentines Day.

Best regards

Morning Clive.
Bit hung over this morning
I have to say that I couldn't manage a thread as you do, all the time you have been on here I have never seen you lose your cool.
Even the strangest of characters (I include myself in that group) get your even handed approach you go that extra mile to ensure whoever it is understands what you are saying. That's the Hallmark of a good teacher. I am not ass kissing I am just telling it as I see it.

My apologies to Mr V I couldn't resist having a bite at him, and him only watching your back.

My original idea was to open my own thread, I am so glad that I didn't . I would have been tarred and feathered within a week.
I am going to fade back into the background.

I guess what I am saying and you have been saying all along is that when its trending strongly who cares a fig what indicators you are using they are all going to show the same thing. Its not the indicators its the trend that you are trading.

When the band is marching up the hill just fall in behind it.
Many thanks to you

Good morning Geanies101

Great post , you summed it up in a nutshell.....

All our indicators,CCI,RSI,stochastics , super indy ,itchimoku clouds, Hirenko charts, range bars, moving averages, price action, fibonacci levels, support and resistance you name it they all work far better in a strong trending pair....

Bad entries turn good and good entries turn excellent when you're trading with a strong trend....

All I'm doing is finding strong trends then buying the dips in uptrends or selling the peaks in down trends...Strong trends appear on all timeframes but I just like the 1 minute because they appear everyday throughout the day, but especially around market opens and just after high differential news releases.

I hope you hang around and by all means use the indicators that suit you best to trade the strongest trenders..

Gonna sign off now with my favourite trading saying with my own little twist.

"The Trend is your friend but the strongest trends are your best friend"

so there it is in a nutshell....can we move onto step2? Trend continuation...we are clear in our method to enter the market.....so lets say we have made an entry on a pair....and we have moved stops to break even asap.....how are we determining trend continuation...as in knowing when to let it run

Hi Jason

Ha Ha, as you well know, thats the million dollar question we've been trying to answer here for the last 6 months, "Hold em or fold em" question.

Just recently I've been swaying towards just taking what the move gives you , our "Orphan hugging" system, however I have started to hold when theres some strength or weakness across the board, then I'm looking to hold through a couple of pullbacks. Even add if the trend moves forward strongly...

The very best way looking back after a session would appear to be hold on the 100lwma slope changes but that is very difficult to do as I then end up going 20 to 30 pips up only to see it all go back again to BE. Again as you well know. Also even when we look back at these bigger moves you can see plenty of times when the 1 minute would come back take us out at BE then forage on with the higher timeframe trend.

Now I've heard you regularly talk about entering on the 1 minute and holding on a higher timeframe eg 5 min or 15 min even hrly but the problem is again that looks great after the fact but very hard to identify at the time of entry, but hey whats your thoughts?? How do you think we can identify what to hold and what to fold???

I've provided the entry system how about you work out the ideal exit system??? Of course the problem is its not going to work out perfect every time, theres gonna be plenty of times you're get knocked out at BE so the real question is, is it even worth working out?? Would we make more in the long run by Orphan hugging and be done with it???

See what you've started again Jason??? Just when I was coming to terms with Orphan hugging , now you've started me off again trying to squeeze a little bit more out of each trade.....

But seriously Mate if you can find a way of identifying we've caught a longer term trend then great...lets have it, I'm all ears....

Just a few words from the Rolling Stones,
I've told you once and I've told you twice,
but you never listen to my advice, ah ah
This could be the last time, This could be the last time, ah ah

Well funny you mention that lol

ive been scratching heads and researching and have 3 methods.
you.could use fib extentions of abc as targets...check your email clive for link to youtube video.
there is of course putting stops.on prior swing low/high and move along each time a new swing high/low is made

or there is using an indicator ..eg your 100lwma or 150 lwma etc plus 5 pips as a trailing stop

other indicators im sure could work...maybe bigger timeframe cci?
So your 1min cci(14) and maybe 15min (210) or 1hr (840) and you only trade in confluence with each other.....use 14 cci asnentry and 210norn840 etc cci as your exit....obv entry only if.both are in sync

Its all cool, no bad was intended by me and none taken with your reply.

take a look guys

been studying this for a while and looking to put this abcd method into this as one

you can trade as a basket or as a single pair trade

cci has now been programmed and i think if you set it right you can trade clive cci method with this

watch this video

Clive

Thank you for steering me over here from Divergence's thread. I just finished reading the first 137 posts of this thread. Not sure how you've done w/ this system since then.

The rules you laid out over on Divergence's thread today are closer to the way I trade than the way Divergence laid his system out. While I am a big believer in getting confirmation from a higher TF b/c it will increase the win rate, I do not see the value in the 210 CCI, as this amounts to a large 15x difference between the smaller (14) and larger (210) TFs. Imo this is not a tight enough correlation. I have found that the optimal difference is 3x. Even 5x (the difference between daily TF and weekly TF, for example) is not a tight enough correlation for me. So for example, when I swingtrade other markets on D1, I will use a three-day bar chart as my higher TF.

I did spend some time backtesting this system without the 210CCI, and using bars instead of Heiken's, and there is a positive expectancy w/ this system. Something you said was memorable, b/c you are the only one I've ever heard say this, and that is that whichever ob/os oscillator you choose -- RSI, stoch, %R, CCI -- is not key. The key is trend strength. That is what truly matters. And that means that successful trend trading requires trading only the strongest trends, whichever way you want to identify them. I learned this several years ago. Then, I noticed that trends which were contained by the 10 ema on an M1 or M5 chart -- i.e. my definition of a strong trend, e.g. the LO moves -- were invariably the ones that you could enter on the pullback and come out with at least a 1R win. Also, entering closer to your moving average so that price is not extended will improve results, as will focusing entries on the 1st and 2nd pullbacks in a new trend. These are your higher probability trades.

One thing I noticed with this thread was the tendency for some people to want to overcomplicate things. At its heart, this is a simple pullback strategy w/ positive expectancy. An MA, an oscillator. Resist the urge to add other indi's and things. More important to the bottom line is the discipline to only take those trades with the better trends.

Also, imo there is no "ideal exit," which I saw you mention a post or two above this one. One exit type such as an x-bar trailing stop will work best for a few trades, and then the next trade or two will work better with another exit type, e.g. a break of an MA, etc. Of course, you won't know which exit will work best ahead of time. Find something you are comfortable with and stick with it. I will be int'd to track your progress from here on out.

Good trading to all

Mentioned in the skype room that I was watching the gbp weakness across several pairs, top 4 positions in TT. Sold gbpnzd as that was top 2.05399.

Had a small pullback and test of the W M2 pivot I have at 2.0535, fallen again and stop now at BE.