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NZD/USD

  • #8,661
  • Edited Feb 14, 2015 12:25am Feb 13, 2015 4:46pm | Edited Feb 14, 2015 12:25am
Quoting Sifufx
{quote} Hello Roger, Do you trade these setups? If so how? They don't tell me much at all.
See timeframes of the charts for the hints.
(also see some of my old posts on this forum NZD/USD).
  • #8,662
  • Edited 2:54am Feb 14, 2015 1:21am | Edited 2:54am
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If this is a sequence of sand dunes, imagines your hand push from the right hand side show the effect for the current position group as the below chart.
For Asian session (my trading session), the chart on Monday will lose several hours (that belong to Pacific timezone : NZ and AUS) that means it will be gap down to the minimum of the day as the last Monday (maybe) or reversal already (maybe) (not sure at this moment.).

For this week(9-13feb2015), the minimum is about 0.7312 (please help me to check for more accurate value), on my old post, the coming week will be red candle and the tail-end can be as low as this week's tail-end (the minimum=0.7312)(blue circle on my old post #8,644).

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  • #8,663
  • Feb 14, 2015 4:36am Feb 14, 2015 4:36am
Quoting roger44
{quote} See timeframes of the charts for the hints. (also see some of my old posts on this forum NZD/USD).
Cheers. I understand candle formations pretty well having studied them beyond Nison University level for several yrrs

NZDUSD trade set-up for next week.

Inside Candle setup. Strategy is identify inside candles. For trends just use a 21sma, Daily chart, Entry is 6 pips below the inside candles low +spread.

Sell Stop 7403 Stop 7478 Target 1 7340 Target 7217

Most likely be selling EU and a few others with similar setups.

Have attached a couple of older chart trades. Just for viewing. I liked the way i traded that move.. Had 6 full lots on that trade. Stops were 25 pips on first entry.
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Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: NZUSDupd3.PNG Size: 50 KB
  • #8,664
  • Feb 14, 2015 5:26am Feb 14, 2015 5:26am
Would love to see a retest of 7673 breakout area to short to next fib and M-200ema at 6960 area
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSDMonthly.png Size: 34 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSDWeekly.png Size: 44 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSDDaily.png Size: 30 KB
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #8,665
  • Feb 14, 2015 6:55am Feb 14, 2015 6:55am
Quoting roger44
{quote} {image} The above chart is NZD/USD 1hour chart (last year) for 19sep-26sep2013 (similar week to this year), which also had some repeating cycles (not draw yet but if you already read my previous thread, you should understand).
where is your previous thread. I cant find it
  • #8,666
  • Edited 3:39pm Feb 14, 2015 3:06pm | Edited 3:39pm
Quoting trader2745
{quote} where is your previous thread. I cant find it
I think you had read a very old post that was a long time ago and it might have some mistakes frequently at that moment, please forget it (as I am not quite remember at this moment and I am not good in English.).
I am not good on talking using words and I think it should be better using charts for communications (please accept it)(and of course, mistakes cannot be avoided I think : nobody is perfect. I am not perfect : I am sure).
  • #8,667
  • Edited 6:43pm Feb 14, 2015 4:56pm | Edited 6:43pm
Quoting trader2745
{quote} where is your previous thread. I cant find it
Another thing to be aware of with the Kiwi is the 7185 was actually formed by the Christchurch earthquake on the 22/2/2011. Knowing that I don't put alot of weight on that low. .Ideally, would like to see the market hold below 0.7371-0.7470 (last weeks diary)in order to maintain the integrity of the double top structure formed oct 2011 to june 2012 (especially into a weekly close), If this structure proves to be correct it gives a target all the way down to 5900 area.
The only slight concern here is the fact that there has been a bullish key day reversal which formed on the lows. In order for this pattern (and its positive implications) to be invalidated , the market needs to break Tuesdays low at 0.7360.


Dollar Index. DXY The next big level to overcome is 95.86. Also 61.8 retrace from July 2001 high to Mar 2008 low. Seems momentum is still in place although showing monthly oscillators being in overbought territory. COB report is largely still positive dollar although there was small dollar sellers from commercials.
  • #8,668
  • Feb 14, 2015 5:24pm Feb 14, 2015 5:24pm
Gidday NZ

I been taking longs AUD/NZ from the low

been busy in the NZ cross pairs,but the fake outs,random retraces can turn green to dust in a heart beat.

pretty sure NZ will be sold off,they would like below 0.70

Down to bite size trades,longs from low points.

Been hard for my greedy bastard take all gambling style

So used to catching the explosive solar system moves

these retraces are killing me
  • #8,669
  • Feb 14, 2015 6:45pm Feb 14, 2015 6:45pm
Quoting eliteincome
Gidday NZ I been taking longs AUD/NZ from the low been busy in the NZ cross pairs,but the fake outs,random retraces can turn green to dust in a heart beat. pretty sure NZ will be sold off,they would like below 0.70 Down to bite size trades,longs from low points. Been hard for my greedy bastard take all gambling style So used to catching the explosive solar system moves these retraces are killing me
No reason to be long Aussie , especially with that awesome prime minister.. Tony RedNeck Abbott..lol
  • #8,670
  • Feb 14, 2015 7:33pm Feb 14, 2015 7:33pm
Quoting Sifufx
{quote} Cheers. I understand candle formations pretty well having studied them beyond Nison University level for several years

NZDUSD trade set-up for next week. Inside Candle setup. Strategy is identify inside candles.

Have attached a couple of older chart trades. Just for viewing.
RE: your chart of the previous trade - you did really well with that, it was at the end of a much longer trend

Certainly agree, those Inside Days can point the way to success, all the best
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 15-02-2015 11-29-52 AM.png Size: 36 KB
It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #8,671
  • Feb 14, 2015 7:58pm Feb 14, 2015 7:58pm
Quoting Erebus
{quote} RE: your chart of the previous trade - you did really well with that, it was at the end of a much longer trend Certainly agree, those Inside Days can point the way to success, all the best {image}
Cheers,

I was actually short from 87 also, but had closed those trades prior entering new ones.

Inside days on the daily charts are very powerful once you have the right strategy and trade management. I find trading the break of the inside candle is best in the direction of the daily trend. Have tried using it on lower time periods without as much success. I know why.
  • #8,672
  • Feb 15, 2015 12:07pm Feb 15, 2015 12:07pm
NZDUSD looks bearish to me unless price will be able to come back to the descending channel, test 0.76-0.7650 zone, move down and bounce from lower boundry at 0.75 to test 0.78

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSD DAILY CHANNGEL.png Size: 44 KB
Value is nothing, Price is everything
  • #8,673
  • Feb 15, 2015 3:06pm Feb 15, 2015 3:06pm
Most likely get a spike in retail sales today. Xmas was the highest amount spend in history. Wouldn't be surprised that being the case it goes a bit higher, but won't be enough to cause any major trend change.
  • #8,674
  • Feb 15, 2015 3:12pm Feb 15, 2015 3:12pm
Quoting Sifufx
{quote} Cheers, I was actually short from 87 also, but had closed those trades prior entering new ones. Inside days on the daily charts are very powerful once you have the right strategy and trade management. I find trading the break of the inside candle is best in the direction of the daily trend. Have tried using it on lower time periods without as much success. I know why.
Yes...love those inside bars....

Reminds me of 500+ (!!!) page thread on the technique here: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=86766

...and that was a continuation thread from this post: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...61#post1898361

Remember, our beloved prime minister, John Key was a currency trader for Merrill:

He began a career in the foreign exchange market in New Zealand before moving overseas to work for Merrill Lynch, in which he became head of global foreign exchange in 1995, a position he would hold for six years. In 1999 he was appointed a member of the Foreign Exchange Committee of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York until leaving in 2001.

I wouldn't be surprised if the guy isn't building a massive short position as we speak!!

Cheers, Motu
  • #8,675
  • Feb 15, 2015 5:15pm Feb 15, 2015 5:15pm
Quoting motu
{quote} Yes...love those inside bars.... Reminds me of 500+ (!!!) page thread on the technique here: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=86766 ...and that was a continuation thread from this post: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...61#post1898361 Remember, our beloved prime minister, John Key was a currency trader for Merrill: He began a career in the foreign exchange market in New Zealand before moving overseas to work for Merrill...
Hi Motu,

Can you imagine that while the Key government was floating Mighty River and Genesis, Key and all his mate were short 1000 + contracts on the NZD. They would have made a killing. while the share holder of MP and G were lucky to break even. He should have got the whole country to short the NZD. Then he would be a rock star.
  • #8,676
  • Edited 8:20pm Feb 15, 2015 7:19pm | Edited 8:20pm
******
I will wait for Tuesday for the maximum (I mean today late night NZD/USD continue gap-up : between now and gap-up still have some slide down drops.)

Today 's maximum I expect is 0.757x-0.759x (mind on EUR trade balance).
Tomorrow's maximum I expect is 0.762x-0.764x(mind on AUS Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes).
Wednesday : NZD RBNZ Governor Wheeler Speaks in Auckland, USA Building Permits and other Housing data.

And then narrow between Tuesday and Wednesday-morning and then be careful about the minutes of USA : start to drop and down to 0.7370 as channel floor and then at the end of this week may be up to about 0.7420 as channel top.
(Friday EURO zones and USA Manufacturing PMI.)
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As Chinese Lunar New Year is from Thursday, I will take a break from Thursday to the end of this week : see you on the next Monday.)
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  • #8,677
  • Feb 15, 2015 8:23pm Feb 15, 2015 8:23pm
I don't know how I read USD trade balance on the calendar, anyway EUR trade balance should come out positive, EUR/USD did fall a lot in dec.
k
  • #8,678
  • Edited Feb 16, 2015 12:29am Feb 15, 2015 8:29pm | Edited Feb 16, 2015 12:29am
Quoting Karpa
I don't know how I read USD trade balance on the calendar, anyway EUR trade balance should come out positive, EUR/USD did fall a lot in dec. k
Sorry, I use another web site for more data:
http://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar

There are a lot difference from different web site, sorry!
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Tomorrow, We have the most important thing :
GDT PRICE Index .
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  • #8,679
  • Feb 15, 2015 8:32pm Feb 15, 2015 8:32pm
Quoting roger44
{quote} Sorry, I use another web site for more data: http://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar There are a lot difference from different web site, sorry!
Thanks
Sorry for the confusion
  • #8,680
  • Feb 16, 2015 1:31am Feb 16, 2015 1:31am
Quoting Karpa
{quote} Thanks Sorry for the confusion
Forexlive is a great site, keep using them.
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