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Dragon Riders GBP/JPY

  • #3,901
  • Feb 13, 2015 9:35am Feb 13, 2015 9:35am
Quoting AllyB
{quote} not feeling real confident with this short ... patience lady patience
Yeah its slow, already took partials, had a decent week nonetheless. I think next week will probably give more opportunities. Up or down.
  • #3,902
  • Feb 13, 2015 9:36am Feb 13, 2015 9:36am
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} Yeah its slow, already took partials, had a decent week nonetheless. I think next week will probably give more opportunities. Up or down.
I kept 1 open also
  • #3,903
  • Feb 13, 2015 9:44am Feb 13, 2015 9:44am
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} Ray, what are the odds that the usd/jpy and gbp/jpy fall to their main supports TODAY? (i.e. gbp/jpy falling to around 181, usd/jpy falling to 117.20) Because after another leg down, it's pretty much a 100pip+ freefall from there from what I can see on the charts, and straight to 181/117.20
Daily time elapsed: ~960min
Daily current range: 80Pips
Daily target time: ~480min
Daily target Range: 240Pips

(960/80)/(480/240) * 100= 16.6666% for 181.00 today before weekend
  • #3,904
  • Feb 13, 2015 9:49am Feb 13, 2015 9:49am
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} Time elapsed: ~960min Current range: 80Pips Target time: ~480min Target Range: 240Pips (960/80)/(480/240) * 100= 16.6666% for 181.00 today before close
so the formula is

(Time Elapsed/current range)/(time remaining/main target distance) ?

So the odds of retesting yesterday's lows (182.30) would be.....

(960/80)/(480/50) x 100 = 125%? That's a bit weird.
  • #3,905
  • Feb 13, 2015 9:51am Feb 13, 2015 9:51am
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} so the formula is (Time Elapsed/current range)/(time remaining/main target) ? So the odds of retesting yesterday's lows (182.30) would be..... (960/80)/(480/50) x 100 = 125%?
Exactly, these are all 'should' figures, means you cant calculate odds at all

Add: Anyway, even if a event has a probablity of 100%+ doesnt necessarily mean it has to happen. Thats a fallacy.
  • #3,906
  • Feb 13, 2015 9:59am Feb 13, 2015 9:59am
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} Exactly, these are all 'should' figures, means you cant calculate odds at all Add: Anyway, even if a event has a probablity of 100%+ doesnt necessarily mean it has to happen. Thats a fallacy.
Wait-maybe my values for the variables were wrong. Did i get them right?

time elapsed=time elapsed since start of new trading day (...5pm est?)

Current range = range between current daily high and low

Time remaining = time remaining on trading day before we reach next one

target range = Distance to target price from current price
  • #3,907
  • Feb 13, 2015 9:59am Feb 13, 2015 9:59am
Meanwhile G/J is goin'...
  • #3,908
  • Feb 13, 2015 10:00am Feb 13, 2015 10:00am
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} Wait-maybe my values for the variables were wrong. Did i get them right? time elapsed=time elapsed since start of new trading day (...5pm est?) Current range = range between current daily high and low Time remaining = time remaining on trading day before we reach next one target range = Distance to target price from current price
Your calculation was right. Dont get too much into it because assuming time is infinite any event has a probability of 100%. Probability calculation are nonsense.

Add: You can know the odds of everything but not the outcome.
  • #3,909
  • Feb 13, 2015 10:13am Feb 13, 2015 10:13am
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} Your calculation was right. Dont get too much into it because assuming time is infinite any event has a probability of 100%. Probability calculation are nonsense. Add: You can know the odds of everything but not the outcome.
I'm guessing this general formula applies to all pairs? Or does it only apply to the gbp/jpy?
  • #3,910
  • Feb 13, 2015 10:17am Feb 13, 2015 10:17am
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} I'm guessing this general formula applies to all pairs? Or does it only apply to the gbp/jpy?
Its just a general formular, its nonsense to calculate probabilities in markets, there are none.
  • #3,911
  • Feb 13, 2015 10:17am Feb 13, 2015 10:17am
Anyway im done for this week, hope everyone had a great one. Nice weekend
  • #3,912
  • Feb 13, 2015 10:34am Feb 13, 2015 10:34am
Quoting FX-Ray
Anyway im done for this week, hope everyone had a great one. Nice weekend
laters and enjoy your weekend also
  • #3,913
  • Feb 13, 2015 10:41am Feb 13, 2015 10:41am
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} Its just a general formular, its nonsense to calculate probabilities in markets, there are none.
Would that not mean that trading is totally random and more luck than skill?
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #3,914
  • Feb 13, 2015 10:57am Feb 13, 2015 10:57am
Quoting Hickson
{quote} Would that not mean that trading is totally random and more luck than skill?
Thats what theory of effective markets says. All informations available are instantly absorbed by price, so the movement in essence is random and you cant make more than market benchmark.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #3,915
  • Feb 13, 2015 11:43am Feb 13, 2015 11:43am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} Thats what theory of effective markets says. All informations available are instantly absorbed by price, so the movement in essence is random and you cant make more than market benchmark.
It depends who has the information at what time
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #3,916
  • Feb 13, 2015 11:49am Feb 13, 2015 11:49am
Quoting Hickson
{quote} It depends who has the information at what time
In real life yes, but one of bases of this theory is all informations are available. Though we know it is not true, theory can be applied to measure effectivity of markets. It goes like this: The more informations about market you can find, the more effective market becomes. So thanks to this is much harder to make cash on market everyone watches, like Eur/Usd for example, when compared to analysis of informations not so available to the public .
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #3,917
  • Feb 13, 2015 11:51am Feb 13, 2015 11:51am
Quoting Hickson
{quote} It depends who has the information at what time
Knowledge is power.
  • #3,918
  • Feb 13, 2015 11:57am Feb 13, 2015 11:57am
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} Knowledge is power.
Guess who got the knowledge in this market ...
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #3,919
  • Feb 13, 2015 11:58am Feb 13, 2015 11:58am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} In real life yes, but one of bases of this theory is all informations are available. Though we know it is not true, theory can be applied to measure effectivity of markets. It goes like this: The more informations about market you can find, the more effective market becomes. So thanks to this is much harder to make cash on market everyone watches, like Eur/Usd for example, when compared to analysis of informations not so available to the public .
You do not think the market makers have better information than the retailers on the main markets?
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #3,920
  • Feb 13, 2015 12:07pm Feb 13, 2015 12:07pm
Quoting Hickson
{quote} You do not think the market makers have better information than the retailers on the main markets?
You didnt read what I have written, did you?

So let me explain. You can measure effectivity of market with underlying input beeing informations. The more informations available, the more effective market. Ofc not all informations are not available, but nevertheless you can measure availability of infos. Get it? So if you are smart you analyze infos not so well know to public to dodge margets effectivity and beat benchmark. Thats it.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
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