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Dragon Riders GBP/JPY

  • #3,801
  • Edited 7:10pm Feb 12, 2015 6:45pm | Edited 7:10pm
Quoting Ironman777
{quote} I think GREED! is fucking with your head.
Yes, is greed, but not the one you think. I thirst for knowledge. See am very used to be poor, I actually dont need cash . I just want to be right in my analysis.

I agree on the hard ass rules. I always have many scenarios and leverage/deleverage on more pairs as waves go. Always have set technically worst case scenario when things go real bad, and this scenario is usually BE . But as a philosopher, I believe mind is a very strong weapon and if used properly can raise your profits hard. Speaking of such things as RR 30:1 homeruns and stuff. You gotta be in sync with market to catch that one, and hard to know what markets gonna do huh?

Edit: Speaking of waves, now again mostly UJ long - and preparing to load few more Geppys. K, I shoot. Is scalp entry with stops real close 182,981
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #3,802
  • Edited 7:28pm Feb 12, 2015 7:16pm | Edited 7:28pm
Umm, I know this will go a bit against the grain, but Sterling Yen has actually not confirmed (yet) as bearish. Price swings of the last few hours and the resulting price formation can also be interpreted as a bullish continuation.

To be bearish, I would suggest it would drop out of 182 and into 181/181.2 again then maybe retest 182/181.8 before heading to lower targets of 179 or 177 in extension - or just plain dump again.

To be bullish it would retest the highs (roughly) then maybe retest back into 183 or 183.4 (something like that). Should the high hold, then, rather than 300ish pips to the downside, its much the same to the upside.

All we really know is that it broke major resistance earlier in the week and now is up against more. Whilst I favour the short side (basically as a weekly end rejection below that resistance turned support in yesterday's big fall) ... and daily candles suggest rejection, as may the weekly candle right now .... , but it really has not yet confirmed. The more time it sits above the 182.6/7 pivot area gives it a chance of not being bearish.
  • #3,803
  • Feb 12, 2015 7:27pm Feb 12, 2015 7:27pm
Quoting Mpt
Umm, I know this will go a bit against the grain, but Sterling Yen has actually not confirmed (yet) as bearish. Price swings of the last few hours and the resulting price formation can also be interpreted as a bullish continuation. To be bearish, I would suggest it would drop out of 182 and into 181/181.2 again then maybe retest 182/181.8 before heading to lower targets of 179 or 177 in extension. To be bullish it would retest the highs (roughly) then maybe retest back into 183 or 183.4 (something like that). Should the high hold, then, rather than...
Just wait and see, I guess. More importantly, we're probably going to rest the 38.2 retracement from yesterday's highs (183) one more time, or somewhere near that anyway.

Bulls need to see a bounce from that to 183.40 to get anything going, while bears need to keep below that and retest the 50% retracement (your pivot area of 182.60). As for whether the bulls or bears have the advantage, I can't say anything with my own analysis yet either. Keep in mind that my analysis riht now is only the "first" gate that any bias has to go through before becoming a more clear trend in the market.

Update: We hit 183.02. It's round one of bulls vs bears.
  • #3,804
  • Feb 12, 2015 7:28pm Feb 12, 2015 7:28pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} Yes, is greed, but not the one you think. I thirst for knowledge. See am very used to be poor, I actually dont need cash . I just want to be right in my analysis. I agree on the hard ass rules. I always have many scenarios and leverage/deleverage on more pairs as waves go. Always have set technically worst case scenario when things go real bad, and this scenario is usually BE . But as a philosopher, I believe mind is a very strong weapon and if used properly can raise your profits hard. Speaking of such things as RR 30:1 homeruns and...
It's a fact bro! No one knows where the market is headed next!

We can only make an educated guess based on past trades that have worked for us, so when we see the patterns the markets show us, we act on those based on our beliefs cause we've seen that happened b4. Only screen time and participating in the markets is what makes all of us better.

I had a mentor for a while b4 and this guy would not mess around, after the initial phase from his teachings (all the book stuff and literature) when it was time to get into the charts and start trading, he made me paper trade blocks of 20 trades with the whole journal and screen shots and all 3 times and that I think was the best lesson I've ever had cause I was able to see afterwards every little mistake I made (jumped the gun early, went to a different time frame from where I entered, moved my stop loss or exit early, lot size too big to recoup losses, revenge trades after losses) and he made sure I wouldn't trade again unless I fixed the issue.

About them home runs I'll say fuck em!

A home run to me is a trade where it worked out just as I planned it with the desire outcome. Think about it 3 trades a day as a day trader and you have a hit, double and a triple where you have 2 runs and a man on third base as oppose to a single home run...

You will get the knowledge you want by staying alive trading and treating that account with respect. The money will work itself out...

Well I'm done for tonight got to go...Be well, Trade well !
  • #3,805
  • Feb 12, 2015 7:29pm Feb 12, 2015 7:29pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} I also love to trade manually. But unfortunately got mental issues, especially overinflated ego when things go good - meaning I wont cover that partial and wait till I loose my entries. So I always set fixed entry/exits so I dont totally screw up, but is like 50/50. 50 set, 50 manual.
Hey, you mentioned overinflated ego when things go good.......
I have a brother!!!!.....glad to know ya! I have a bunch of questions if I ever get over there for that beer I owe ya!! I want visit the yellow circle...no no the red one, too!!

Do you guys over in the heartland listen to rock....?....Neil Young....Uriah Heep?
  • #3,806
  • Feb 12, 2015 7:32pm Feb 12, 2015 7:32pm
[quote=Gbp/jpy;8066242]{quote} Hey, you mentioned overinflated ego when things go good....... I have a brother!!!!.....glad to know ya! I have a bunch of questions if I ever get over there for that beer I owe ya!! I want visit the yellow circle...no no the red one, too!![/quo

Go for the rainbow.. We all know what that means...lol
  • #3,807
  • Feb 12, 2015 7:32pm Feb 12, 2015 7:32pm
Nikkei starts to drop heavy. Well m15 chart, but you know how it starts
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #3,808
  • Feb 12, 2015 7:34pm Feb 12, 2015 7:34pm
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} Just wait and see, I guess. More importantly, we're probably going to rest the 38.2 retracement from yesterday's highs (183) one more time, or somewhere near that anyway. Bulls need to see a bounce from that to 183.40 to get anything going, while bears need to keep below that and retest the 50% retracement (your pivot area of 182.60). As for whether the bulls or bears have the advantage, I can't say anything with my own analysis yet either. Update: We hit 183.02. It's round one of bulls vs bears.
Yes, wait is correct if one is cautious. I still favour a large rejection (sitting above the weekly TL now at 181.2/3 is not natural for the pair) but it always has a habit of doing the opposite (only six times last week!)
  • #3,809
  • Feb 12, 2015 7:37pm Feb 12, 2015 7:37pm
Quoting Mpt
{quote} (sitting above the weekly TL now at 181.2/3 is not natural for the pair) but it always has a habit of doing the opposite (only six times last week!)
You're forgetting that it's 2015. It' the year of Forex surprises, Bank shocks, and high impact world events.

Honestly, things haven't been this hectic for me in a long time.
  • #3,810
  • Feb 12, 2015 7:39pm Feb 12, 2015 7:39pm
Quoting Mpt
Umm, I know this will go a bit against the grain, but Sterling Yen has actually not confirmed (yet) as bearish. Price swings of the last few hours and the resulting price formation can also be interpreted as a bullish continuation. To be bearish, I would suggest it would drop out of 182 and into 181/181.2 again then maybe retest 182/181.8 before heading to lower targets of 179 or 177 in extension - or just plain dump again. To be bullish it would retest the highs (roughly) then maybe retest back into 183 or 183.4 (something like that). Should the...
I like it! I guess we have a trade, you go long and if my price gets hit I'll go short. That's what makes a market I have my reasons to put on my trades and so do you. We shall just wait and see if you will take my pips or I will yours...
  • #3,811
  • Feb 12, 2015 7:45pm Feb 12, 2015 7:45pm
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} You're forgetting that it's 2015. It' the year of Forex surprises, Bank shocks, and high impact world events. Honestly, things haven't been this hectic for me in a long time.
I like that word "hectic"
I live to see this kind of markets cause it creates lots of opportunities for all of us the bears, the bulls but careful with being a pig...if not careful one can get slaughtered...

As you can see there's bulls out there that might provide us with much desire entry and find out our fate...lol

Talking shit now, need a break...later
  • #3,812
  • Feb 12, 2015 7:46pm Feb 12, 2015 7:46pm
One minute and five minute ichimoku charts seem to offer a surprising degree of information on areas of struggle between bulls and bears. Normally I prefer to take a more long term view, but this is an exception, i guess.

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  • #3,813
  • Feb 12, 2015 7:46pm Feb 12, 2015 7:46pm
Had a meet-up with my buddy.....he says upside.......so get ready....tonite is the number one volatility day of the week......been that way for a decade or two.......long about the London Open.....findin' a place to get long....
  • #3,814
  • Feb 12, 2015 7:48pm Feb 12, 2015 7:48pm
Quoting Mpt
Umm, I know this will go a bit against the grain, but Sterling Yen has actually not confirmed (yet) as bearish. Price swings of the last few hours and the resulting price formation can also be interpreted as a bullish continuation. To be bearish, I would suggest it would drop out of 182 and into 181/181.2 again then maybe retest 182/181.8 before heading to lower targets of 179 or 177 in extension - or just plain dump again. To be bullish it would retest the highs (roughly) then maybe retest back into 183 or 183.4 (something like that). Should the...
Agreed GJ is still from my chart in the weekly up channel and we are sitting about mid channel atm,, the daily has a down channel working within the weekly atm tops/line formed from 189.69, 187.32, and todays 184.14. we could bust through my daily line and up up and away we go, or it could fail as it has on the previous points and fall back towards the bottom of that weekly channel which today is 173.40 and rising. I personally if it does drop don't see it below 181 ish or back to the 50ma on my chart and the longer it hangs around that daily upper down channel line on my chart the less confidence I have with shorting todays top.
  • #3,815
  • Feb 12, 2015 7:50pm Feb 12, 2015 7:50pm
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} You're forgetting that it's 2015. It' the year of Forex surprises, Bank shocks, and high impact world events. Honestly, things haven't been this hectic for me in a long time.
It comes down to one's interpretation of the hectic moves. Yesterdays move was either the precursor to another drop, or the fast recovery and relatively sideways movement is the precursor to another move up. I will post a chart, but maybe only a few will get where I'm coming from.
  • #3,816
  • Feb 12, 2015 7:50pm Feb 12, 2015 7:50pm
Quoting Gbp/jpy
Had a meet-up with my buddy.....he says upside.......so get ready....tonite is the number one volatility day of the week......been that way for a decade or two.......long about the London Open.....findin' a place to get long....
See, thats again example where ego plays intraday. I buy it now .

That nikkei, though looking down now, is still within that flag ya know?
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #3,817
  • Feb 12, 2015 8:04pm Feb 12, 2015 8:04pm
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  • #3,818
  • Feb 12, 2015 8:09pm Feb 12, 2015 8:09pm
Stiff struggle. We keep swapping back and forth between 183. The move from here, wherever it may go, will be big and fast.
  • #3,819
  • Feb 12, 2015 8:10pm Feb 12, 2015 8:10pm
Been away for a few days but things seemed to have played out about how i imagined they would. Closed out longs from 175.7 and have entered a short at 183.30. I still feel we have a test of around 174-173 in store and USDJPY seems to be supporting that. Of course we shall see long term my bias is still upwards to 200 but I don't think this down move is over yet.
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  • #3,820
  • Feb 12, 2015 8:17pm Feb 12, 2015 8:17pm
Quoting thegmann
Been away for a few days but things seemed to have played out about how i imagined they would. Closed out longs from 175.7 and have entered a short at 183.30. I still feel we have a test of around 174-173 in store and USDJPY seems to be supporting that. Of course we shall see long term my bias is still upwards to 200 but I don't think this down move is over yet. {image} {image}
207 to be precise.
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