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Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade

  • #13,041
  • Feb 12, 2015 11:41am Feb 12, 2015 11:41am
Quoting Matts Micro
{quote} Nah, I was thinking about it pretty hard though. My PRZ was one level too high, it was my mistake not the "system". I missed a few recent levels and once I put them it was a bit of a slap on the forehead lol. Despite not trading it it is always good to see confirmation of what is supposed to happen. I can even see really nice PA close at the top that I would have entered on.
Would have taken profit on this trade. It is good to see confirmation of the system, now all I need to do now is figure out my trade management.

Would have been around a 200 pip TP
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As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #13,042
  • Feb 12, 2015 4:49pm Feb 12, 2015 4:49pm
Quoting PipTrendz
I have had an absolute nightmare today!! Everything seems to have gone against any decision I make and I have to say I am really really annoyed!! I know emotion should not take part in trading but it has annoyed me. I think every SL has been hit and then price reverses within a pip or 2 back into profit, and yeah my stops were correct. Or I am in profit, move my stops above structure, price spikes and hits then goes down to my TP another 25 pips down. Well I have blown over 100 pips and my account is now about useless. So that is me out for this...
Hi PipTrendz,

I'm really sorry to read that

One of your previous posts mentioned trying to trade the news. I think that is a really difficult skill set all by itself.
For me on the time frame that I trade, I know I can't ignore fundamentals so I try to keep a keen eye on it. In fact, that is the main reason I only trade one pair.

That being said, I still don't trade news; I just have a healthy respect for how it can really ruin my day. Perhaps the best way to put it would be: As a rule, I wouldn't enter a trade because of the news, but I would avoid a trade because of the news. And if the news supports my normal analysis, it's just another point of confluence. (I'll admit there have been some exceptions, but they were getting onboard with the news, rather than fighting it).

I'm sure you're feeling pretty low right now, but I'm confident you can pick yourself up and get back on the proverbial horse. Have you thought about having a loss limit for the day? e.g. after x consecutive losses, you stop for the rest of the trading day. Can you drop your lot size right down and continue with what is left in your trading account?

I hope I haven't rubbed any salt in your wounds, and I hope to see you back on top soon
  • #13,043
  • Feb 12, 2015 6:10pm Feb 12, 2015 6:10pm
Quoting Matts Micro
{quote} Would have taken profit on this trade. It is good to see confirmation of the system, now all I need to do now is figure out my trade management. Would have been around a 200 pip TP {image}
Making the right trading decisions in the PRZ zone is a high level skill in itself.

Something that we all would like to master.

Having the confidence to open a trade and let it run for 200 pips implies that the TP level has many factors going for it.

50% of that move would have been fantastic.........

Masterrmind............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #13,044
  • Feb 12, 2015 6:25pm Feb 12, 2015 6:25pm
Quoting Masterrmind
Also Long GU prior to news will post chart after I close the trade out. +20 pips at present but that can change fast! Masterrmind...........
The GU trade from yesterday for +22 pips (strong bullish strength - news related in this case)

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Masterrmind.........
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #13,045
  • Feb 12, 2015 7:00pm Feb 12, 2015 7:00pm
Is this thread losing its direction?

It appears that we in our own ways have loosely adopted Mr Pips methodology, although I do not believe that it has yet been fully comprehended by any member on this thread thus far. I know that I still have a lot of learning to do. The entire method from entries to rules to money management have been provided for our benefit on this thread. This is valuable to me for the simple fact that by following the rules I have been able to make profit overall. The more obvious and simple trade setups are always the better ones. Each time I deviate from the rules I end up taking a loss. In the past I have found myself becoming unreasonably emotional during trading- once a trade has been placed live my decision making ability becomes impaired, I get either overly upset due to a loss or euphoric due to a gain. The only way I have been able to combat these emotions of mine is by setting the rules before I click buy/sell.
I have spent time trading multiple time frames and multiple pairs, but the change to smaller time frames and one pair per session has been highly beneficial. I cannot monitor my computer all the time and I do not like missing setups that I have been waiting for. I used to think that I was capable of monitoring all the pairs but I now see that there is plenty of profit opportunity on one pair, and I only need to be mentally in tune with one at a time.
Trading patterns where the AB=CD component is the focus and not entering just because a pattern is present has helped also. Understanding how to see structure and set expectations. To only expect price rotation or reversals when we see order flow breakdown is another important aspect. We need to continue and further our education.
Our focus on this thread needs to be on refining, developing and continuing this methodology and not just spamming random comments and personal trade journals. There are plenty of other garbage threads for that.
We have an incredibly valuable resource with this thread, so lets improve it. Lets grow our trading education.
  • #13,046
  • Feb 12, 2015 7:46pm Feb 12, 2015 7:46pm
Quoting Masterrmind
{quote} The GU trade from yesterday for +22 pips (strong bullish strength - news related in this case) {image} Masterrmind.........
This does not show me why you entered or exited, what were you confluences?, what was your thinking behind the successful entry? Were your expectations met? How do you control your stop losses? I already know that you are a good trader, I want to learn why and how you do what you do.
  • #13,047
  • Feb 12, 2015 8:24pm Feb 12, 2015 8:24pm
GU long M1 Chart +6 pips

Trading an M1 chart makes it a little difficult to post pre TP.

Reversal zone anticipated after a 1:1 on an ABCD close to the DO.

PA on entry candle suggested a break to the upside and then st OF followed with an anticipated TP close to the previous sT High.

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Trade closed out very well!

Just follow OF and don't exit unless there is a reason too!
Use anticipated TP zone or alternatively a break down in bull or bear strength as the case may be.

Onto the next trade............simple!

Masterrmind............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #13,048
  • Feb 12, 2015 8:28pm Feb 12, 2015 8:28pm
Quoting PipTrendz
I have had an absolute nightmare today!! Everything seems to have gone against any decision I make and I have to say I am really really annoyed!! I know emotion should not take part in trading but it has annoyed me. I think every SL has been hit and then price reverses within a pip or 2 back into profit, and yeah my stops were correct. Or I am in profit, move my stops above structure, price spikes and hits then goes down to my TP another 25 pips down. Well I have blown over 100 pips and my account is now about useless. So that is me out for this...
You have done some awesome trades previously, don't worry about a bad day. It is only money. We make some we lose some and we learn. You cannot begin to judge your performance as a trader in the first couple of years. We have to lose money to learn about those emotions. This is how demo trading can create a false sense of accomplishment with strategies etc. when the real battle is with our emotions toward gaining and losing actual money. Euphoria from profiting is just as misleading as negative emotions are from a loss. These thoughts you are having are part of the process of learning.
  • #13,049
  • Feb 12, 2015 8:37pm Feb 12, 2015 8:37pm
Quoting Masterrmind
GU long M1 Chart +6 pips Trading an M1 chart makes it a little difficult to post pre TP. Reversal zone anticipated after a 1:1 on an ABCD close to the DO. PA on entry candle suggested a break to the upside and then st OF followed with an anticipated TP close to the previous sT High. {image} Trade closed out very well! Just follow OF and don't exit unless there is a reason too! Use anticipated TP zone or alternatively a break down in bull or bear strength as the case may be. Onto the next trade............simple! Masterrmind............
Awesome, I can see your reasoning.
  • #13,050
  • Feb 12, 2015 9:00pm Feb 12, 2015 9:00pm
Quoting Masterrmind
{quote} Making the right trading decisions in the PRZ zone is a high level skill in itself. Something that we all would like to master. Having the confidence to open a trade and let it run for 200 pips implies that the TP level has many factors going for it. 50% of that move would have been fantastic......... Masterrmind............
This area is still a little grey in this system for me. I am happy as a whole on my entries with a lot of good trades at good levels but am failing to capitalise on a lot of positive pips due to the profit range not being met and I end up with a lot of B.E.'s and missed profit. I am beginning to think that I am going to use my larger trades as a guide to positive indication for Order Flow and confluence for st OF and trade the smaller charts. I am going to try testing this during the weekend and just possibly a 200pip TP range could become a 300-400 pip profit range and the ability to close trades with a better exit strategy.
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #13,051
  • Edited 9:39pm Feb 12, 2015 9:11pm | Edited 9:39pm
Quoting Matts Micro
{quote} This area is still a little grey in this system for me. I am happy as a whole on my entries with a lot of good trades at good levels but am failing to capitalise on a lot of positive pips due to the profit range not being met and I end up with a lot of B.E.'s and missed profit. I am beginning to think that I am going to use my larger trades as a guide to positive indication for Order Flow and confluence for st OF and trade the smaller charts. I am going to try testing this during the weekend and just possibly a 200pip TP range could become...
Mastering the PRZ entry and TP zone is vital.

No-one can do this perfectly....no one!

So what we try to do is to take 50 to 70% of that leg in the direction of our TP....that's what we need to master!

You do a great job of determining your PRZ so that's a plus.

Just wondering for the times that you got stopped out was it because your SL was too tight (need to analyse this)

If yes then you might want to look at reducing your lot size and giving your SL a little more breathing space.

Of course if you truly believe your SL is set where it should be then you might need to work on your actual entry level.

It might just be a little bit of tweaking here and there to make a world of difference.

It would be awesome to see you posting pre trade setups and then post TP shots where you have hit 100 pips..........

EDIT: Going for 300-400 pip TP's would be for much longer time frames and perhaps wider stops and they are not easy to hit.

Hope this helps and have a great trading day,

Masterrmind............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #13,052
  • Feb 12, 2015 9:30pm Feb 12, 2015 9:30pm
Quoting PipTrendz
I have had an absolute nightmare today!! Everything seems to have gone against any decision I make and I have to say I am really really annoyed!! I know emotion should not take part in trading but it has annoyed me. I think every SL has been hit and then price reverses within a pip or 2 back into profit, and yeah my stops were correct. Or I am in profit, move my stops above structure, price spikes and hits then goes down to my TP another 25 pips down. Well I have blown over 100 pips and my account is now about useless. So that is me out for this...
Sorry to hear this. I had a crappy day yesterday too, though I did manage to scratch some pips back in the end. It sounds like you have the same problem I struggled with for a very long time and occasionally still have relapses. I have found that when I was having a bad day I would continue to trade past extreme losses and not give up. Imo the trading day needs to viewed the same as setting a SL on a trade; if you can't walk away from a market that doesn't accept your system's premise for that day due to what ever reasons then your account will suffer.

Some days just do not work for me, I haven't been able to discover the reason behind it, it's like there is too much money in the market and they have the ability to move it where ever they like. They're not stupid and if you read a few of the threads here about institutional traders you will find that after 10-20 years+ in the industry they do know where peoples stops live and they do chase them. I figure on these bad days these traders are very active.

My only advise is to set a limit for the day and then walk away, the market will be here again tomorrow. It's a hard lesson to learn but it's part of the risk management that needs to be addressed when trading in the FX world.

Hope that you can recover and can come back a better trader for the experience
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #13,053
  • Feb 12, 2015 10:07pm Feb 12, 2015 10:07pm
Quoting Masterrmind
{quote} Mastering the PRZ entry and TP zone is vital. No-one can do this perfectly....no one! So what we try to do is to take 50 to 70% of that leg in the direction of our TP....that's what we need to master! You do a great job of determining your PRZ so that's a plus. Just wondering for the times that you got stopped out was it because your SL was too tight (need to analyse this) If yes then you might want to look at reducing your lot size and giving your SL a little more breathing space. Of course if you truly believe your SL is set where it should...
Cheers mate I agree and "tweaking" is the key word for me atm.

I do need to address my SL and or entry level to a degree but this isn't such a problem as taking profits. The reason I use short stops is because if I am using the suggested SL levels, I have found that the R:R is quite poor with an average of just above 1:1 and sometimes even less. Additional to this the PRZ is often in corroboration with my other system and on that system I use those small stops. In my experience a large percentage of those stops either hold but if broken the market continues in the original trend direction with no reversal. I know I haven't demonstrated that very well in the trades that I have posted but I will show you a couple of examples.

the first chart is an EU trade last night. My calculated PRZ was at the falling TL and my stop was about 5-10 pips above. If that TL had of been broken then I believe PA would have had a high risk of shooting higher on the BO and continued on the trend. The trade went 30-40+ pips before being stopped out on a trailing stop and it is one of the instances where I need to ask myself a few questions about taking profit. One thought is that if against OF perhaps take at 50% fib.

Another trade on the GU at a PRZ and again I had thoughts if PA hit my SL then PA will continue up and it appears to be doing that. The trade might turn back in the intended direction another 40-50 pips higher but I can't justify risking that much when I could just try a re-entry at that level if hit.

I did get taken out of the EA yesterday that I posted however due to a news spike so you are correct that my SL's do need addressing and needs further analysis.

Hope you have green pip day

PS sorry a bit long winded

Edit: Sorry original post had wrong GU chart.
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As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #13,054
  • Feb 12, 2015 11:51pm Feb 12, 2015 11:51pm
Currently long EU. I am going to try to employ my new profit taking system. My expectations are to reach the top PRZ via the hrly charts. I have broken the trade down however and have a smaller PRZ on the 5m. I will watch PA behaviour at this zone and will exit the trade if the candles give an indication of reversal. Because my sentiment (OF) is bullish I wont try to sell this area but rather look for where the correction may end and try to re-enter the long trade.

Need to reach that 1st zone yet.....
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As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #13,055
  • Feb 13, 2015 12:22am Feb 13, 2015 12:22am
Quoting Matts Micro
Currently long EU. I am going to try to employ my new profit taking system. My expectations are to reach the top PRZ via the hrly charts. I have broken the trade down however and have a smaller PRZ on the 5m. I will watch PA behaviour at this zone and will exit the trade if the candles give an indication of reversal. Because my sentiment (OF) is bullish I wont try to sell this area but rather look for where the correction may end and try to re-enter the long trade. Need to reach that 1st zone yet..... {image}
I like what I'm reading...........very good!

Masterrmind...........
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #13,056
  • Feb 13, 2015 12:24am Feb 13, 2015 12:24am
Quoting Masterrmind
{quote} I like what I'm reading...........very good! Masterrmind...........
Thnx mate

I just got stopped out +15. Looks like I may have miscalculated the st PRZ, will work on that. I Will look for a PRZ on the correction to re-enter my long as I am still with the lt OF.
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #13,057
  • Feb 13, 2015 12:27am Feb 13, 2015 12:27am
Quoting Matts Micro
{quote} Thnx mate I just got stopped out +15. Looks like I may have miscalculated the st PRZ, will work on that. I Will look for a PRZ on the correction to re-enter my long as I am still with the lt OF.
15 pips in the bag...........great start!

Masterrmind............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #13,058
  • Feb 13, 2015 12:48am Feb 13, 2015 12:48am
Quoting Masterrmind
{quote} 15 pips in the bag...........great start! Masterrmind............

Heres my next PRZ for further upside. Franky coming online....
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As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #13,059
  • Feb 13, 2015 1:40am Feb 13, 2015 1:40am
Quoting Matts Micro
{quote} Heres my next PRZ for further upside. Franky coming online.... {image}
Update:
With those GDP numbers out of Germany combined with bullish OF I thought there was going to more reaction than there was and even the news report has been upgraded from orange to red on the front page. PA then challenge my PRZ but used it as support which is interesting.

I have seen this many times since starting this type of trading. The PRZ I draw tends to be used as a S/R zone, which it obviously is. I am thinking I might start drawing a secondary box just before the PRZ to watch candle action within these zones as often the PRZ only gets hit with a wick before turning. It may mean I need to extend my SL a little from entry... will think on it. PA may still yet enter my zone (or go through it hehe).

PA still hasn't decided but London open could be interesting.
(SL's aren't formal yet was just protecting st position)
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As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #13,060
  • Feb 13, 2015 1:44am Feb 13, 2015 1:44am
Quoting Matts Micro
{quote} Heres my next PRZ for further upside. Franky coming online.... {image}
Did you take the trade.

It pretty much entered your PRZ went up about 18 pips then dropped down again.

Now its @1.14220 (thereabouts)

Likely to go UP - mini double bottom.....hmmm

Ive been looking into GU too.......

Masterrmind.........
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
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