Simple Uncomplicated (obvious) trading | Page 25 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

SIMPLE EA for a simple method needed!! 2 replies

Trading Made Simple the right way, and other trading lessons 334 replies

Trading is this Simple? Finally Explained simple and clearly! 46 replies

Stating The Obvious and The Quest For Wisdom 1,361 replies

Despair means - obvious 14 replies

Attachments: Simple Uncomplicated (obvious) trading
Exit Attachments

Simple Uncomplicated (obvious) trading

  • Linked: Simple trading method | Demo Account XXXXXX25
  • Expand
  • Last Sync: Apr 26, 2015
Apr 26, 2015
Last Sync: Apr 26, 2015
Apr 26, 2015
Last Sync: Apr 26, 2015
Apr 26, 2015
Last Sync: Apr 26, 2015
Apr 26, 2015
Last Sync: Apr 26, 2015
to
No trading activity in this period.
  • #481
  • Feb 12, 2015 10:51am Feb 12, 2015 10:51am
Looks like all this USD selling is causing this market to threaten my stop. I have moved it in just a little tighter to lock 1,300 pips. It looks like a shooting star is now forming which may signal the beginning of the end of this move.
Attached Image
  • #482
  • Feb 12, 2015 12:31pm Feb 12, 2015 12:31pm
Quoting gspajon
Update on GBP/USD: FINALLY!! Some movement on the pound. we have made a new high and confirmed a higher low. I have moved my stop up to just about break even on this trade which is now currently positive about 150 pips. I will hold this for now as it is only the one position and anticipate some selling to come in around the 1.5525 area....have to wait and see. {image}
It seems that the pair is forming engulfing bar... Probably it's time to go long. Especially if today's bar will close above the RL.

What do you think?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD.jpg Size: 290 KB
  • #483
  • Feb 12, 2015 12:57pm Feb 12, 2015 12:57pm
Quoting sergzav
{quote} It seems that the pair is forming engulfing bar... Probably it's time to go long. Especially if today's bar will close above the RL. What do you think? {image}
Engulfing candle is satisfied. Should we wait for the next candle to determine if it's break or not?
  • #484
  • Feb 12, 2015 1:08pm Feb 12, 2015 1:08pm
What about this?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture.PNG Size: 28 KB
  • #485
  • Feb 12, 2015 1:44pm Feb 12, 2015 1:44pm
Quoting sergzav
{quote} It seems that the pair is forming engulfing bar... Probably it's time to go long. Especially if today's bar will close above the RL. What do you think?
Sergzav and f1demon; The best point for entering long on this trade was about 190 pips ago...but I suspect there will still be some buying into tomorrow and next week.

As opposed to buying right here, perhaps you might want to consider placing a buy limit order somewhere in the area indicated below. Your choice of course.

Keep in mind this is a retrace I am trading here...that is by definition a counter trend trade. I suspect selling to return in earnest around the 1.55 area or even a little lower...Thus I want you to consider that when you start placing your buy orders that the market flow may start to work against you in the next 100 pips or so. What we are seeing here is just stops from short positions getting hit...ie: the people holding short just got their stops hit and thus a flood of buying has come into the market driving prices higher...it remains to be seen whether NEW buying is yet in play...once all the stops are hit and no other new buyers come in, price may stall and fade...

Keep it in mind as you consider longs from this level.
Attached Image
  • #486
  • Feb 12, 2015 1:53pm Feb 12, 2015 1:53pm
Quoting f1demon
What about this?
Ah, USD/JPY...

Take a good hard look at this market on the screen shot you showed me. Forget about those imaginary lines you have drawn...

Can you see the confusion in this market?...its at a top, it retraced, it bounced and ranged for two weeks, accelerated up to ALMOST the high but didn't make a new high, now (along with all the other USD pairs), is selling USD...

I cannot see a clear direction on this market and I am confused by looking at it.I was long but was stopped out last night with about 70 pips or so...

I am thinking of letting this market "settle" into something I recognize...it is NOT obvious to me.
  • #487
  • Feb 12, 2015 2:00pm Feb 12, 2015 2:00pm
Quoting gspajon
{quote} Ah, USD/JPY... Take a good hard look at this market on the screen shot you showed me. Forget about those imaginary lines you have drawn... Can you see the confusion in this market?...its at a top, it retraced, it bounced and ranged for two weeks, accelerated up to ALMOST the high but didn't make a new high, now (along with all the other USD pairs), is selling USD... I cannot see a clear direction on this market and I am confused by looking at it.I was long but was stopped out last night with about 70 pips or so... I am thinking of letting...
Thanks buddy. I agree with you, too much uncertainties on this pair. I better avoid this pair and let see what happen next week. Thank you, still have alot things can learn from you
  • #488
  • Edited 5:06pm Feb 12, 2015 2:42pm | Edited 5:06pm
update on Gold (short):

Gold buying was apparent today but in opposition to the rest of the FX, the day ended with USD buying and Gold selling...I suspect the real dollar sell off hasn't yet hit this market yet.

I am seeing some interest in buying, as was anticipated at this level. I have moved my stop down to protect approximately 480+ pips. This stop is now inside the weekly range, which makes me uncomfortable, however, if I am stopped out tomorrow, I suspect more gold buying to continue and I will look for a long entry point.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Trade5-6.png Size: 27 KB
  • #489
  • Feb 12, 2015 6:36pm Feb 12, 2015 6:36pm
Dont stop posting bro, im watching this thread daily, I just dont have anything to contribute atm.

A question I have though is you mentioned this in post#485 "...it remains to be seen whether NEW buying is yet in play...once all the stops are hit and no other new buyers come in, price may stall and fade..."

How do you know what is NEW buying?? Candlestick pattern on Weekly/monthly chart?

Cheers
  • #490
  • Feb 12, 2015 6:42pm Feb 12, 2015 6:42pm
Very nice trading, sir. I think you should increase your leverage. Not anything crazy, but you have proven that you deserve more than 1:1 or 2:1.

With almost 5,000 pips in the bank, I'd think you would have doubled your money by now.
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #491
  • Edited 8:25pm Feb 12, 2015 8:04pm | Edited 8:25pm
Quoting rexxen
Dont stop posting bro, im watching this thread daily, I just dont have anything to contribute atm. A question I have though is you mentioned this in post#485 "...it remains to be seen whether NEW buying is yet in play...once all the stops are hit and no other new buyers come in, price may stall and fade..." How do you know what is NEW buying?? Candlestick pattern on Weekly/monthly chart? Cheers
Hello Rexxen...first of all thank you for your words of support they are greatly appreciated.

In answer to your question, there is one sure way to know what is new buying, and that is the commitment of traders report that the CFTC puts out every week end. Except that report is always about 5 days behind, as it take that much time to process the data. Thus it is always lagging information and reflects what is already seen in the charts.

I go by what I see on the chart and as such neither I nor anyone can actually tell you precisely but it can be surmised by learning to "see" the order flow in the price action...it goes something like this...assuming a bullish market like that of the GBP/USD...

Long drawn out selling naturally presumes that some participants...perhaps a majority are holding short positions taken several weeks or months ago. So think about it...where would your stops be if you were holding short? Pretty much any of the longer term charts you look at would have you stopped out, and thus the first "wave" of buying from the bottom is usually stops being triggered...

Now that all the stops are triggered if no new buying comes in...there is nothing left to drive prices higher...and price will stall and create a "false break"... This will be evident if prices fade here and start to range again...for a very clear picture of that, look at the EUR/USD over the past week...prices stopped out the shorts but there are still no new longs coming into the market in any volume to drive prices higher...

So the "second wave" of buying will produce a distinctive rally that most people will recognize and jump on...this is the "new buyers" coming to market...once this wave slows you will have the first retrace...as the late buyers on this wave get stopped out...if this retrace produces a higher low...we are off to the races and have a new trend in the opposite direction...

A rather lengthy explanation, but that's how I "read" the price action and use it to my advantage.
  • #492
  • Feb 12, 2015 8:19pm Feb 12, 2015 8:19pm
Quoting smash1820
Very nice trading, sir. I think you should increase your leverage. Not anything crazy, but you have proven that you deserve more than 1:1 or 2:1. With almost 5,000 pips in the bank, I'd think you would have doubled your money by now.
Thank you your compliments mean a great deal...The deal with the leverage was that I wanted to experiment with holding trades longer and how that effects MY psychology, thus I have held risk to around 1%. From there, what ever the trade makes...it makes...Lately I have not place any limits on the trades just to see how far they can go, assuming I don't choke it off with a stop that's too tight.

I don't think I will ever feel at ease risking enough to double my money in so short a time as 3-4 months...But as time goes on, perhaps I will gain more comfort with that concept.

The next step is to mine this data and come up with some usable stats that I can use to form a cogent "modified" trading plan.
  • #493
  • Feb 12, 2015 11:48pm Feb 12, 2015 11:48pm
Quoting gspajon
I don't think I will ever feel at ease risking enough to double my money in so short a time as 3-4 months
No worries. To each his own.

I don't trade with a lot of money, so it seems fitting for me to be aggressive in my trading right now. If I were trading with millions of dollars, I'd probably be more like you too.
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #494
  • Feb 13, 2015 12:27am Feb 13, 2015 12:27am
Nice trades, try 2:1 now. and keep posting or open a live Skype room or so so that we can join :-)
  • #495
  • Feb 13, 2015 1:05am Feb 13, 2015 1:05am
Quoting gspajon
{quote} Hey Ken...I was wondering where you had gotten off to. I'm glad to see I hadn't "bored" you to death.
Hi gs.

Not bored at all. Always watching.......and waiting.

Had second thoughts on NZDUSD. Now watching 0.7500-0.7530 for a short. Not entirely convinced but will look for a signal in that area. Too much sideways movement with wicks, and little momentum, but worth a try maybe.

Well done with the thread. True PA is always worth reading.
  • #496
  • Feb 13, 2015 7:07am Feb 13, 2015 7:07am
Quoting attilafx
Nice trades, try 2:1 now. and keep posting or open a live Skype room or so so that we can join :-)
Thank you Atilla. I haven't crunched all the data yet, but I suspect that many of these trades are greater than 5:1 actual risk. All the trades here are done on Day charts and I post them as I enter the pending orders so those who wish to follow can do so. (No guarantees...as always)

The majority of the trades take roughly 12-24 hrs to trigger so there is plenty of time to duplicate as you so chose. A live skype room would just drive me crazy with all the chatter...I need to concentrate when I trade...I don't even listen to the news, when I am doing futures trading...just too much noise and it is distracting.
  • #497
  • Feb 13, 2015 8:56am Feb 13, 2015 8:56am
update on Gold (short):
Price is now threatening stop...looks like the dollar selling has come into this market as well...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Trade5-7.png Size: 27 KB


As soon as I posted...I was stopped for 488 pips...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Trade5-8.png Size: 26 KB
  • #498
  • Feb 13, 2015 3:13pm Feb 13, 2015 3:13pm
Quoting gspajon
update on Gold (short): Price is now threatening stop...looks like the dollar selling has come into this market as well... {image} As soon as I posted...I was stopped for 488 pips... {image}
And I'm going to watch (hopefuly) how the price will go further down...
  • #499
  • Feb 15, 2015 1:59pm Feb 15, 2015 1:59pm
Quoting gspajon
{quote} Hello Rexxen...first of all thank you for your words of support they are greatly appreciated. In answer to your question, there is one sure way to know what is new buying, and that is the commitment of traders report that the CFTC puts out every week end. Except that report is always about 5 days behind, as it take that much time to process the data. Thus it is always lagging information and reflects what is already seen in the charts. I go by what I see on the chart and as such neither I nor anyone can actually tell you precisely but it...
Thanks for the explanation, makes perfect sense.
  • #500
  • Feb 15, 2015 8:18pm Feb 15, 2015 8:18pm
Quoting gspajon
{quote} Sergzav and f1demon; The best point for entering long on this trade was about 190 pips ago...but I suspect there will still be some buying into tomorrow and next week. As opposed to buying right here, perhaps you might want to consider placing a buy limit order somewhere in the area indicated below. Your choice of course. Keep in mind this is a retrace I am trading here...that is by definition a counter trend trade. I suspect selling to return in earnest around the 1.55 area or even a little lower...Thus I want you to consider that when...

Hello gspajon...thx you for all your insight within this thread. This is one of only a few threads that i follow that i enjoy seeing new information and posts in. Please keep up the good work as I am learning tons from your information. Thanks for sharing and thanks for the insight. It is much appreciated.
Be Patient....
2 traders viewing now