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Simple Uncomplicated (obvious) trading

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  • #461
  • Edited Feb 12, 2015 9:03am Feb 11, 2015 5:43pm | Edited Feb 12, 2015 9:03am
Smikster and Sergzav...thanks for your support...I appreciate that someone out there finds value in what I am doing.

Sergzav: I too was watching AUD/USD today, but I have to say that I would feel a lot more comfortable with a short if this market had retraced some. Having said that; it doesn't appear that this market has retraced significantly in several months. Instead it always seems to want to "fall out of the bottom"... in which case your trade will most likely do well...I'm just not there...I want to see the buyers come in and do something, then have the sellers take over...to me selling near the low goes against my grain...but that is a personal issue and says nothing about the probability of your trade working. Besides I am already participating in and AUD short by holding long GBP/AUD.

BTW...not that I'm any good a reading indicators...but your MAC-D is giving a bullish divergence signal...yet another reason why I don't bother with them anymore.
  • #462
  • Feb 11, 2015 6:19pm Feb 11, 2015 6:19pm
New Trade Opportunity:

NZD/USD (Short): I have to thank Sergzav for bringing this to my attention...this is not my typical entry but I will try to elaborate. As posted here, price seems to indicate a balanced order flow that has been drifting sideways for six days. However yesterday a very small change occurred the tickled my "spidy-sense". Tuesday's daily range was very small and near the upper part of the over all range. Today, sellers came in (as expected at the top of the range), and pushed prices down to close below yesterday's low, and formed what is essentially a bearish engulfing bar.

My sense is that this shows the seller's willingness to come and drive prices down...I have placed a sell limit along the lower body of the small ranged candle, which will allow price to drift back up toward the top of the range and trigger at a more reasonable price. I have placed the stop well outside the range to just above where sellers came in last time. I am hoping I won't need that much of a stop.

In case you are wondering, price has NOT "officially" broken the range but I am detecting a "disturbance in the force"...we'll see what happens.
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  • #463
  • Feb 11, 2015 6:43pm Feb 11, 2015 6:43pm
Update on GBP/AUD:

Aussie Unemployment numbers are bringing more sellers into the AUD, thus pushing prices higher here. I am keeping a tighter stop on this market now. This stop locks almost 1,300 pips.
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  • #464
  • Feb 11, 2015 6:57pm Feb 11, 2015 6:57pm
OK...last post for this evening then I'm going to bed...

Can anyone explain what's up with the EUR? I understand ranging conditions...blah, blah, blah...but WTF man??!!

I remember days when 150-200 pips was a "normal" daily range.
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  • #465
  • Feb 11, 2015 7:10pm Feb 11, 2015 7:10pm
Ya~ This pair entering consolidation squeeze, but overall lookout still bearish,
waiting for consolidation period to end before long term selling of the EUR i suppose,
great thread, simple, elegant and uncomplicated, green pips to you and have a great day, god bless.
One Punch, One Kill
  • #466
  • Feb 11, 2015 7:24pm Feb 11, 2015 7:24pm
Quoting gspajon
OK...last post for this evening then I'm going to bed... Can anyone explain what's up with the EUR? I understand ranging conditions...blah, blah, blah...but WTF man??!! I remember days when 150-200 pips was a "normal" daily range.
Sure, this guy can !!!

http://www.jarrattdavis.com/trading-...k-11-feb-2015/
It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #467
  • Feb 11, 2015 10:32pm Feb 11, 2015 10:32pm
Hello gspajon,

Sorry for not posting anything on here. A bit lazy in that respect I guess. But I follow your posts with great interest.

Would love your input on this CADJPY trade I have placed a sell order on 4 HR. Entry 94.91 Stop 95.88 Target 93.50


Appreciate all you have done mate.

DD
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CADJPY 4 HR 12 FEB 15.png Size: 44 KB
  • #468
  • Feb 11, 2015 10:46pm Feb 11, 2015 10:46pm
Hello GSPAJON.
I like these simple trades very much.

Salute for your discipline term, in page #1:
So the discipline is this...(1) Find the set up; (2) set the trade and wait for it to trigger; (3) DON'T touch it; (4) When profit gets to 70% of goal, move stop to Break Even; (5) Don't touch anything else until either stopped out or limited out. (6) Rinse/Repeat.

May I know about how to get "GOAL" in point (4)?
Are TP and SL those kind of GOALS?

Thanks.
  • #469
  • Feb 12, 2015 1:20am Feb 12, 2015 1:20am
Quoting gspajon
New Trade Opportunity: NZD/USD (Short): I have to thank Sergzav for bringing this to my attention...this is not my typical entry but I will try to elaborate. As posted here, price seems to indicate a balanced order flow that has been drifting sideways for six days. However yesterday a very small change occurred the tickled my "spidy-sense". Tuesday's daily range was very small and near the upper part of the over all range. Today, sellers came in (as expected at the top...
God morning Gspajon, good morning everybody!

I was looking at NZDUSD too and have set my sell stop order under Support level at 0.73123. So will wait for break through down. Will see...

Have a nice day!
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  • #470
  • Feb 12, 2015 3:19am Feb 12, 2015 3:19am
Hi GS.

Value this thread highly, as I am sure many do, despite lack of postings. Your analysis is most insightful, and I think everyone benefits from it.

Good to have more views on the NZDUSD. I am hoping for a retrace to ~0.7450 for my Limit short.

Regards
  • #471
  • Feb 12, 2015 7:06am Feb 12, 2015 7:06am
Quoting stadi
... May I know about how to get "GOAL" in point (4)? Are TP and SL those kind of GOALS? Thanks.
You may recall that I was testing the idea of 2xR (2 times risk) with this thread. I have since learned that moving out onto the day chart the 3-to-4xR is a very reasonable objective assuming the trend stays going in your direction.

I calculated my target based on the entry signal I was using to enter. Example: If my entry signal was an engulfing bar, my target was the range of the engulfing bar added to my entry point. It was the same with all the signals, except the inner bar which was 2x the range (as they are very small bars).

I have come to rethink that idea. I now hold into a trend and try and have multiple positions going so as to take profit at fibnoacci targets along the way...however. That doesn't work as well as I wanted either.

So I have resigned myself to trading only areas of market imbalance. Once I see the market becoming balanced again, I tighten my stop in anticipation of a reversal...if the market become unbalanced in my favor again, I hold until the next balance...This take a bit more thought and is not for everyone...

Using targets as described above will ensure a greater win percent...but those wins will be smaller...

Allowing the prices to move as they do, may produce more stop outs and thus a lower win percent, but the wins will be much larger. The choice is yours
  • #472
  • Feb 12, 2015 7:07am Feb 12, 2015 7:07am
Quoting ken911
Hi GS. Value this thread highly, as I am sure many do, despite lack of postings. Your analysis is most insightful, and I think everyone benefits from it. Good to have more views on the NZDUSD. I am hoping for a retrace to ~0.7450 for my Limit short. Regards
Hey Ken...I was wondering where you had gotten off to. I'm glad to see I hadn't "bored" you to death.
  • #473
  • Feb 12, 2015 7:16am Feb 12, 2015 7:16am
Quoting Dildubai
Hello gspajon... Would love your input on this CADJPY trade I have placed a sell order on 4 HR. Entry 94.91 Stop 95.88 Target 93.50 Appreciate all you have done mate. DD}
Dildubai...I'm looking at this market and I have to say I really don't like it right now...it looks very similar to GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY.

Below I have posted my "triple screen" with weekly daily and 4 hr charts side-by-side. All you need to do is look at the weekly chart.

Note a higher high and a lower low...This tells me that the order flow is confused. While the daily chart may look a little more organized, this current retrace from the also shows a confused and very balanced order flow...meaning this: The buyers and sellers seem willing to fight over every pip of ground. Currently the buyers appear to be making headway, but are met with selling at every stage, thus you see range, break, range again.
So the first question for you is: Which way will you trade? For me this does not seem clear or obvious at all. I might be inclined to take this short if I saw a lower high form on the weekly chart...so far I don't see this...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #474
  • Feb 12, 2015 7:17am Feb 12, 2015 7:17am
Quoting KeroroQ
Ya~ This pair entering consolidation squeeze, but overall lookout still bearish, waiting for consolidation period to end before long term selling of the EUR i suppose, great thread, simple, elegant and uncomplicated, green pips to you and have a great day, god bless.
Hello KeroroQ Thank you for your kind words...please feel free to post any time you like.
  • #475
  • Feb 12, 2015 7:21am Feb 12, 2015 7:21am
Update on GBP/USD:

FINALLY!! Some movement on the pound. we have made a new high and confirmed a higher low. I have moved my stop up to just about break even on this trade which is now currently positive about 150 pips. I will hold this for now as it is only the one position and anticipate some selling to come in around the 1.5525 area....have to wait and see.
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  • #476
  • Feb 12, 2015 8:19am Feb 12, 2015 8:19am
NZD/USD Triggered Short...so we are off to the races...
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Click to Enlarge Name: Trade1-1.png Size: 22 KB
  • #477
  • Feb 12, 2015 10:08am Feb 12, 2015 10:08am
Hi Gspajon, as a newbie i'm really appreciate your way of trading because it's just simple and profitable. I'm looking forward to learn more from this thread.
  • #478
  • Feb 12, 2015 10:19am Feb 12, 2015 10:19am
Quoting f1demon
Hi Gspajon, as a newbie i'm really appreciate your way of trading because it's just simple and profitable. I'm looking forward to learn more from this thread.
Thank you so much...I truly appreciate that you can find value in this thread. Please feel free to contribute as you see fit...please don't be "afraid" we all learn at different rates (believe me, I am the slowest there is).
  • #479
  • Feb 12, 2015 10:22am Feb 12, 2015 10:22am
Update on EUR/USD: (long)

FINALLY!! here too we are starting to see some movement back up into something that might look like a retrace. I have reduced risk in this position to approximately 58 pips risk on the aggregate (average) entry price.

Nothing left to do but sit on my hands...
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  • #480
  • Feb 12, 2015 10:30am Feb 12, 2015 10:30am
Update on NZD/USD:

I have closed this trade for a 36 pip loss

I don't like the apparent power that the buyers are showing here. An engulfing bar is forming and while it hasn't closed as such yet, I'm not liking it. (Guess my "spidy-sense" isn't all that good). It also appears that the entire USD complex (all USD pairs) are falling, thus giving a push to some of the other pairs I've been trading...

I decided to let this one go at a loss, and catch the next trade, whenever that might be.
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