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Dragon Riders GBP/JPY

  • #3,561
  • Feb 10, 2015 1:08pm Feb 10, 2015 1:08pm
So then people, I get the impression it was a reasonably good day for most people.

What are your thoughts for tomorrow...bearing in mind its a bank holiday in Japan. I'm new to this currency so have no experience of how this would change things.
  • #3,562
  • Feb 10, 2015 1:10pm Feb 10, 2015 1:10pm
Quoting anima999
So then people, I get the impression it was a reasonably good day for most people. What are your thoughts for tomorrow...bearing in mind its a bank holiday in Japan. I'm new to this currency so have no experience of how this would change things.
Bank holiday = lack of significant movement up or down = range trading. If you can find a pattern in the chart movements, you should be able to actively scalp them without too much trouble.

And meanwhile, BOC's annnouncement made the USD/CAD overbought to hell and back. I have a short at 1.2620. Should be interesting. Trying to sneak a few dozen pips; nothing too big.
  • #3,563
  • Feb 10, 2015 1:27pm Feb 10, 2015 1:27pm
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} Bank holiday = lack of significant movement up or down = range trading. If you can find a pattern in the chart movements, you should be able to actively scalp them without too much trouble. And meanwhile, BOC's annnouncement made the USD/CAD overbought to hell and back. I have a short at 1.2620. Should be interesting. Trying to sneak a few dozen pips; nothing too big.
Imo has also second impact. Yet again conspiracy, but already happened to me once in EU trade when I have felt safe on US Veterans day, but EU politicians abused the fact US markets are on hollidays and released some serious BS. I dont remember what kind of BS was that, but remember I lost bout 8% bcos of it. It is a pair, USD flow still open and we got G20 and Russia charging Ukraine heavy. Imo pretty possible they´r gonna come up with sanctions = thus blocking world trade and putting stocks down. Nevertheless, European feckers should attack! Am ashamed for my state we aint defending Ukraine - stupid sanctions when people are dying.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #3,564
  • Feb 10, 2015 1:36pm Feb 10, 2015 1:36pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} Imo has also second impact. Yet again conspiracy, but already happened to me once in EU trade when I have felt safe on US Veterans day, but EU politicians abused the fact US markets are on hollidays and released some serious BS. I dont remember what kind of BS was that, but remember I lost bout 8% bcos of it. It is a pair, USD flow still open and we got G20 and Russia charging Ukraine heavy. Imo pretty possible they´r gonna come up with sanctions = thus blocking world trade and putting stocks down. Nevertheless, European feckers should attack!...
The effects would be somewhat mitigated though for the yen pairs. That's the beauty of it; the movements will be a reflection of other pairs, but its movements will be more controlled.

Still, unexpected things can happen; that's why I said "if you can find a pattern, you should be be able to." That's one of the reasons why I won't have open positions for western pairs tomorrow, since we have Greece trying to hammer out a deal that day.

The Eurozone meeting will be big, and I feel much safer waiting for a confirmed signal from its announcement rather than going in the market before.

Now then, here's the question of the week: Greece vs Germany- who will prevail?!
  • #3,565
  • Feb 10, 2015 1:44pm Feb 10, 2015 1:44pm
Quoting Vermillion
The effects would be somewhat mitigated though for the yen pairs.
Hehehe yeah, I think generally UJ long best hedge for European moves, thats why I have hidden here. Was my theory for ECB QE, which failed..., but can apply it for whatever major shift in European cash flow . Love simplifying, here goes:
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
USD,EUR and Yen are the most traded currencies and every central bank as well as other banks has plenty of it so in case of any shift they can operate these three currencies the easiest to rebalance.
USD long term Bull trend Yen long term Bear trend
Now lets imagine these simplified scenarios:
ECB eases: They´r gonna sell EUR. But against what? Imo best to sell it against bullish USD. So thats USD++, UJ ++. ECB doesnt ease: They´r gonna buy EUR. Against what? Imo best to sell some of those Yen..
Ofc simmilar for USD goes for GBP, but a bit different as closer to Europe, so output in mess+Carney.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #3,566
  • Feb 10, 2015 1:53pm Feb 10, 2015 1:53pm
I would like to think Germany.

If I: took out a loan and couldn't pay it back I then got angry, had a riot and trashed my capital city... When I got help from my mates (also all strapped for cash) who write some of my debt off, I then decided I didn't want to pay them back... meanwhile I elected someone who thinks not wearing a tie and promising to give two fingers to my mates is a good idea...I made a pact with a far right, anti-immigration party...

I don't think it would go down very well if I then toured my friends houses looking for people to invest more money in me...again not wearing a tie.

I know its simplified but its how everyone I know feels. I don't think there will be much give from Germany...therefore a Greek exit and Eurozone turmoil remians possible. I'd hate to think of the spreads on the Drachma if it ever comes to it.

The people I feel sorry for is the German people.
  • #3,567
  • Feb 10, 2015 1:59pm Feb 10, 2015 1:59pm
Quoting anima999
I would like to think Germany. If I: took out a loan and couldn't pay it back I then got angry, had a riot and trashed my capital city... When I got help from my mates (also all strapped for cash) who write some of my debt off, I then decided I didn't want to pay them back... meanwhile I elected someone who thinks not wearing a tie and promising to give two fingers to my mates is a good idea...I made a pact with a far right, anti-immigration party... I don't think it would go down very well if I then toured my friends houses looking for people to...
You may be right, but think may overestimate politicians. All they can do is release BS, nothing else. Market and people always beat them in long run coz they´r generally just cowards who want to get reelected. Let them bicker bout nonscence and focus on CBs and major world powers, Russia, thats where the problem is now, also Middle East, check wtf is happening there. All hail Jordan king! Really screw Tsipras. Saw our president? Lol.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #3,568
  • Edited 4:27pm Feb 10, 2015 3:17pm | Edited 4:27pm
181.20 will be a point of contention in Tokyo session. I'm hitting the sack with a short, SL in place. Good luck, everyone.

Update: Ascending triangle with 181.20 as main resistance/decision point is close to completion. I expect a breakout up or down within a few hours or maybe sooner.
  • #3,569
  • Feb 10, 2015 6:15pm Feb 10, 2015 6:15pm
GBPJPY possible 182.00 to 181.50 if breaking below the 182.00 level.
Good luck.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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If u luv happiness, start w/ discomfort, make friends w/ pain and failure.
100 Hits 0 Miss All Time Return: 35.8%
  • #3,570
  • Feb 10, 2015 6:40pm Feb 10, 2015 6:40pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} Its basically like this, but currently am not mining all data desired, coz had little time because of school, so my analysis only like 70% finished. Doesnt stop me from trading though as my FA bias finished well enough. {quote} This is EU, but system is the same: {quote} I actually cant write it all here. I plan to make an attempt to post whole my tradingplan on FF, but it would need me to write a lots of english text. And although I really like you guys, I just dont have time. Till UJ breaks, then I will have lots of time. And this is my...
UUhhhh....ggrrrreeeeee
We see this run-up the same....buddy!!!!................u/j to hit 130.00 bet cash money.....that was the plan all along.....nothing can stop them.....Japan is too important, the second largest economy two years ago....
  • #3,571
  • Feb 10, 2015 6:40pm Feb 10, 2015 6:40pm
GBP/JPY may be eyeing even lower; both the 30min and hourly chart ichimoku indicate the pivot point (180.80) as the prime support. I'm eyeing 181.40/30 to be the main area of contention given previous spike upwards from there.

If we break 182/181.90, I expect a small bounce up before further movement down for the next few hours. If not, and we break above 182.20 with it holding as support, then move to the next resistance, I suppose.

Currently testing 5min. ichimoku kumo cloud.
  • #3,572
  • Feb 10, 2015 7:03pm Feb 10, 2015 7:03pm
For those who are interested, here's my chart (I used 5min chart for a larger picture). So many bright lines. It's so colorful.

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  • #3,573
  • Feb 10, 2015 7:15pm Feb 10, 2015 7:15pm
Skirting higher along ascending short term trendline. If it doesn't break down below 182 soon I'll be closing shorts.
Luck shines on the positive.
  • #3,574
  • Feb 10, 2015 7:18pm Feb 10, 2015 7:18pm
Quoting Vermillion
For those who are interested, here's my chart (I used 5min chart for a larger picture). So many bright lines. It's so colorful. {image}
Update: Currently cruising near breakout point. Manual close for shorts ready to trigger. Guess they want to go up(?). Might see one last retest of 182.20. Edit: Closed shorts.

Let's just go with the flow. Thankfully, the geppy's volatility is enough to allow for profiting even if you get in a bit late.
  • #3,575
  • Feb 10, 2015 7:22pm Feb 10, 2015 7:22pm
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} Update: Currently cruising near breakout point. Manual close for shorts ready to trigger. Guess they want to go up(?). Might see one last retest of 182.20. Edit: Closed shorts. Let's just go with the flow. Thankfully, the geppy's volatility is enough to allow for profiting even if you get in a bit late.
True that, hope I get a good chance to exit before hitting my SL target.
Luck shines on the positive.
  • #3,576
  • Feb 10, 2015 7:53pm Feb 10, 2015 7:53pm
Hi All,

First Post here.

Am long . Reason 30 min break of 182.25 consol zone. . long at 182.42 stop 181.96 target open to 186.00 zone. Am aware of minor resistance zones also.

Price does look a bit extended all the same at present.
  • #3,577
  • Feb 10, 2015 10:48pm Feb 10, 2015 10:48pm
Quoting Sifufx
Hi All, First Post here. Am long . Reason 30 min break of 182.25 consol zone. . long at 182.42 stop 181.96 target open to 186.00 zone. Am aware of minor resistance zones also. Price does look a bit extended all the same at present.
That price extended just has to keep extending....I have my heart set on it....!! Welcome in here, Sifufx
  • #3,578
  • Feb 10, 2015 11:11pm Feb 10, 2015 11:11pm
Damn Greece. The nervousness over the Greek debt issue today is causing Asian markets to do absolutely nothing.

By the time we get things going somewhere, we'll probably have the Eurozone meetings, and we might just see prices suddenly tipping to the opposite direction of what we're trading at.

My guess is that we'll be doing nothing for the remainder of Tokyo. I can't say anything about London either.
  • #3,579
  • Feb 11, 2015 1:28am Feb 11, 2015 1:28am
Quoting Gbp/jpy
{quote} That price extended just has to keep extending....I have my heart set on it....!! Welcome in here, Sifufx
Thanks.

On the daily and weekly time periods GY certainly looks up. 4hr showing some MACD divergence so am weary, especially with the doji style candles present, bit of a rising wedge also. Risk and position size is all in ok, so nothing to worry about.
  • #3,580
  • Feb 11, 2015 3:43am Feb 11, 2015 3:43am
Hey Dragon Riders why so quiet everyone here? Such a nice move this London session and no comments, maybe everyone are sitting on shorts and praying for retracement?
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