Simple Uncomplicated (obvious) trading

I'm in too. Just got a bit more confidence @61.8. Let see. Could finally lock down a trajectory compliant with my minimum RRR policy.

WOW...your charts are very complex. I had to kind of squint to see the price bars. But I finally saw what you are referring...

Shall we hold hands together and sing "Kumbaya"?

Anyway we'll know quite quickly if this area holds or not. On the other direction I had a nice immediate target as well @1.095x...but not playing it. So yes, let's sing "Kumbaya" !

Looks like the Brittish are running a "shut out". Still waiting to get filled on my long order...but I may not get the chance.

I had added a second buy limit at the top of the range seen here. Waiting...waiting...waiting...

Not much joy on Gold either...but stop is now locking a few pips...on an extremely small position size...

I have also cancelled the other sell limit order

Oh well..."nothing ventured nothing gained."

maybe there's something to this singing thing..."Kumbaya...oh lord...kumbaya"

Small lead on the EUR/USD, lets hope we can maintain that...NFP tomorrow...I've decided to keep my stop where it is and allow for some volatility...maybe that's a mistake...we'll see tomorrow morning.

update USD/JPY:

Not looking good for my shorts here...NFP has not been kind to this...but frankly this market was causing me to lose my patience, with the endless range...it should stop fairly soon.

, "and now, the end is near, and so we draw, the final curtain..."

Update on GBP/AUD:

Price is having a difficult time breaking a trend resistance barrier...(sellers are balancing the excess demand).

I have moved the stop up on the 2nd position to just below the low for the past couple of days. This locks in approximately 800 pips or so. I have also moved the stop up on the 3rd (and final) position to this week's low. This will lock approximately 700(+/-) pips.

As the order flow seems to be coming in balance, I am no longer willing to hold any positions at risk and want to protect as much profit as possible while simultaneously allowing for more demand to push prices higher...

Update on Gold:

Friday gave a nice push downward into the area where one might anticipate that buyers will come in. I will be very attentive to this trade this week and tighten stops (even perhaps do a stop and reverse) to see if we get another push higher or see prices collapse down to the bottom of the monthly channel spoken about here.

Update on GBP/AUD:

After ranging over the past few days at the top of the channel seen here, the second position on this trade has been stopped out for 890 pips. I still have one more position left that now as the stop at the bottom of last week's low. That is protecting approximately 700 pips...

Assuming we are starting a retrace, I will try to either exit this trade as high as possible on the retest of the top range, or hold it through the next retrace (assuming the trend stays intact...many assumptions I know. So for now I have another position left with profit locked in...

Dear GSpajon,

First of all I'd like to thank you for the very interesting thread. It's very useful

I'd like to hear your opinion about NZDUSD pair. It seems the price is near the end of its retrace?..

Many thanks in advance

Sergzav, Thank you for your inquiry. Your find here could be a good one...

I like to look at the market across multiple time frames as seen here to get a sense of where I think the buying and selling might be. What you see below is a side by side comparison of weekly, daily, and 4 hr charts

The weekly shows a clear direction...I don't think you need an indicator to tell you that. Note how the last time the buyers came into the market the indecision lasted 15 weeks!! Something to keep an eye on this time as well wouldn't you say?

The daily chart shows that buyers did overwhelm sellers and push prices higher into the area where sellers came in last time. And now for the last four days, buyers and sellers are squaring off. Neither has been able to take the field, and in the order flow seems to be balanced between the two black lines.

The 4 hr chart shows even more detail of this area. Of note is that when ever price reached either extreme, top or bottom, prices stall and reverse, as they seem to be doing here.

Is this the end of the retrace? I honestly don't know, nor can anyone else say for sure. It would appear that buyers and seller have balanced the order flow leaving a directionless market, does that mean the retrace is over? It could mean that, or it couldn't. If you want to be a seller your choices are these:

1. Enter short at the top of this range and hold to see if the range breaks the bottom...if it does not, exit quickly and keep a small profit. (The obvious risk would be that prices break higher and you have a small loss)
2. Enter short at the bottom of the range AFTER prices break and close. In other words enter if/when prices break and then come back to retest this range. (The risk of this is that prices DON'T come back to retest and you are left wondering how to get in).

It all boils down to this: Will price break this small range? And which way will it break? Anyone who can consistently answer that question is a genius. I don't know which way the price will break, neither does anyone else...so you must decide how to trade by what you see happening NOW...Right NOW, prices are stuck in a small range and for me that is not part of my trading plan...while I have learned a little better to utilize ranging conditions to my advantage, I rarely trade inside them until I am stuck in one, meaning I try to exit as close to the most favorable side as possible.

My personal preference is to wait for the break and close and then get in on the retest of the range. This is not without its risk either, but I have at least the view point that sellers will have shown their ability to overwhelm buyers and unbalance the market again. The advantage of waiting for the break is also that I don't have to "guess" which side will "win" this buying/selling battle. And for me that gives a little more certainty.

I hope this answers your question. My opinion (such as it is) is that prices may move up a bit more, and perhaps even give a "FU stop" on the upward boundary before continuing lower...but that is just speculation. You may even see prices go back to the area where buyers held prices for 15 weeks as a "retest" of that area before continuing lower.

Dear Gspajon,

Thank you very much for such in-depth and detailed analysis!
Will wait for more clear picture.

Have a nice day!

I hope you were able to find something of value in my point of view. It is important (I think) to try and see the market as a whole and not one small little piece.

Good trading to you

update on GBP/AUD:
This run looks like it may be coming to an end. The ranging here at the top of this channel suggests the sellers have balanced the buying order flow. While there is still the possibility that prices may break higher, I want to lock in as much as I can. I have moved the stop on this last position up to lock 1,000 pips.

Update on Gold (short):
It appears that buyers are coming in at the anticipated level to balance the selling that came in on Friday. While it appears that more selling may be coming in I have moved my stop down to protect approximately 350 pips.

From here I anticipate more buyers may be interested in coming in and may further stall price or push higher. IF some heavy selling comes in I also anticipate that prices will drop below the low shown here where long stops may be in place.

Update on Gold (short):

Price have given me a gift today in that we pushed lower down into the 61.8 fibonacci area. Again I anticipate that there may be buyers down in this area as well, so I will be vigilant to watch for signs of buyers coming into the order flow. For now the position is moving well.

As side note...It appears as though I am a "one man show" here...I invite anyone to post but if there seems like there is no interest I will stop posting I feel like I'm talking to myself.

Aww! One man show. I think not. I'm always interested in this thread even though I'm too shy to post my views.

Hi gspajon,

No, you're not only one! I'm here and reading all your posts. It's very interesting and useful for me to learn more from you.
So please don't stop posting!

BTW, I entered to short in XAUUSD today as well. Also I opened sell on AUDUSD. What do you think abou it?

Thanks