150206EURUSD:
nice trade done from a RT: gain some 140pips+
I guess the ride down is not over yet
nice trade done from a RT: gain some 140pips+
I guess the ride down is not over yet
Yvon
4 Hour Strategy (MACD)
- #28,742
- Feb 6, 2015 1:35pm Feb 6, 2015 1:35pm
{quote} Great stuff Yvon (as usual!)Im loaded up long on the EurUsd at the moment, looking at the Dollar Index it looks set for a move to the 89sma in the 4h having broken the 21ema and pulled back. Looks like the could be a bit of a snap back in the Eur/Usd up to the 1.15412 level perhaps Looking for break of 30 min and pull back to confirm it. I will also look to add to it there as well. What's your view of this the moment? Thanks
I am usually inclined to give my view on pairs that I usually trade. Because it takes quite some time to get familiarized with them. In the case of the EURUSD, when I know the trend’s direction, I get in trades, but I don’t show all the results, since they are usually a continuation trades and lots differ, will change greatly the results..
Some pages back you can see that my view on the EURUSD doesn’t change: bearish.
(post 28729), even earlier that that!
I mentioned On the montly chart the pair broke the neckline( on some page back on this tread) which is , by itself, shows a change of trend, about 985 pips down, just on the first candle below that neckline! It is an impressive move! I wouldn’t even look at taking a trade against that trend, I would just look at bearish opportunities only.- or getting on a pullback, on a peak if you prefer.
There is no need for me to look at many pairs at the time, I just need to concentrate on one or two pairs only. I just load the trades with more lots, it is easier for me. It gets the best result for me.
Just like the last post about the EURUSD pair: a trade done on a RT, some 140 pips on that one. But I am consistent by taking the RT while going with the trend since EURUSD in going down.- I just took it on a correction ( on a pullback). The RT is taken usually after 4 bars,( sometime more that). By taking that RT, it wasn’t just taking the formation called RT, but the anticipation of a gain, I knew what the possible gain was before taking that RT, and it is by the Strategy’s rules.
As you can see also that the EURUSD just broke the channel it was in…sure I have positions already…It could be seen as continuation; target? I wouldn’t be surprised if it reached 1.11000. but it is still a view.
Have a nice weekend, comments are welcome,
Yvon
- #28,744
- Feb 9, 2015 6:49am Feb 9, 2015 6:49am
150209EURUSD:
as the pair is making a "move away", a nice TC just got made on the macd. The SL is above the 21ema.
the target could be low at about 1.0600 or so. that is about the range of the channel( between the horizontal line above and the entry below .( dotted lines)
the range between the 8 and 21 ema is widening.
as the pair is making a "move away", a nice TC just got made on the macd. The SL is above the 21ema.
the target could be low at about 1.0600 or so. that is about the range of the channel( between the horizontal line above and the entry below .( dotted lines)
the range between the 8 and 21 ema is widening.
Yvon
- #28,745
- Feb 9, 2015 6:58am Feb 9, 2015 6:58am
150209EURUSD HS
Or the same trade could be seen as a Head and Shoulder with a projection range of about 200 pips lower. so I should expect a strong candle at the break of neckline... let see what will happens.
Or the same trade could be seen as a Head and Shoulder with a projection range of about 200 pips lower. so I should expect a strong candle at the break of neckline... let see what will happens.
Yvon
- #28,746
- Feb 9, 2015 7:24am Feb 9, 2015 7:24am
150209USDCAD
There was first the H1, so price was expected to go down and making a strong candle (going down) but the pair moved the opposite way, by making H2 but still made his strong candle (going up). Now the pair is making the pullback to the neckline, then should move away up, probably with a strong candle ( but just a possibility) the target is at the H1 level, some 275 pips away. It is just a view.
The 21ema(blue) as well as the 8 ema(red) is getting about flat, so price could move both side of them, maybe touching the neckline before moving away up since the pair is above the 89sma(purple) But will see…
There was first the H1, so price was expected to go down and making a strong candle (going down) but the pair moved the opposite way, by making H2 but still made his strong candle (going up). Now the pair is making the pullback to the neckline, then should move away up, probably with a strong candle ( but just a possibility) the target is at the H1 level, some 275 pips away. It is just a view.
The 21ema(blue) as well as the 8 ema(red) is getting about flat, so price could move both side of them, maybe touching the neckline before moving away up since the pair is above the 89sma(purple) But will see…
Yvon
- #28,747
- Feb 9, 2015 11:25am Feb 9, 2015 11:25am
AUDNZD:
On the weekly, the price broke the 21 ema(in blue) pulled back to it and started to move down.
On the daily, the price broke the 21 ema(in blue) pulled back to it and started to move down.
On the 4hrs , price broke the 21 ema(in blue) pulled back to it and started to move down.
Target is about 170 pips lower, could go lower, will see…
On the weekly, the price broke the 21 ema(in blue) pulled back to it and started to move down.
On the daily, the price broke the 21 ema(in blue) pulled back to it and started to move down.
On the 4hrs , price broke the 21 ema(in blue) pulled back to it and started to move down.
Target is about 170 pips lower, could go lower, will see…
Yvon
- #28,750
- Feb 11, 2015 8:16am Feb 11, 2015 8:16am
{quote} AUDUSD: That pair has been in consolidation for quite some time now. Fundamentally the USd is getting better,(my view) and on the daily chart some tails pushing the price down can be seen. Technically longer the consolidation greater the range will be when this will break. So looking lower for that pair is in the cards but it is not broke yet. The 8 and the 21ema are kind of flat, price could still go both side of the consolidation. the 3 bumps or sisters are low momentum, so is it strong enough to pull that pair out of consolidation? on...
Please see chart below. Price has moved passed and closed below the TL. Is it time to pull the trigger? How would you enter this one?
- #28,751
- Feb 11, 2015 9:01am Feb 11, 2015 9:01am
USDCAD :
For those who took the trade this was not an easy one to Trade since 2 possibilities were on the table but It finally broke the neckline and now possibly heading to 1.2760
There was a break of the 21ema(blue) at the strong candle, a pullback to the 21 ema as well as to the 89sma(purple), went a bit below the 89sma, then moved away by crossing the neckline up then gain speed by going just above the 8ema. Now the price being around 1.2635.It is standing above the 8ema which is a fast market now. H1 is the next target that could be reached.
comments are welcome,
For those who took the trade this was not an easy one to Trade since 2 possibilities were on the table but It finally broke the neckline and now possibly heading to 1.2760
There was a break of the 21ema(blue) at the strong candle, a pullback to the 21 ema as well as to the 89sma(purple), went a bit below the 89sma, then moved away by crossing the neckline up then gain speed by going just above the 8ema. Now the price being around 1.2635.It is standing above the 8ema which is a fast market now. H1 is the next target that could be reached.
comments are welcome,
Yvon
- #28,752
- Feb 11, 2015 9:42am Feb 11, 2015 9:42am
Audusd:
On the monthly we can see the break , the pull back( making a RT at the same time) and the move away. A Head and Shoulders can be seen also. The right shoulder made a TC, making a divergence between the shoulders at the same time. The target, by the rule is way down at the last dip on the left. Could it reach that level? Why not! But for sure it couldn’t make it in few minutes!
On the 4hrs chart: again there is 3 RT, the last one is also the right shoulder. A divergence also can be seen, expecting a possible move down. At point A: already the target was known if it was going to be a Head and Shoulders figure which happened later. Some 60 pips done already.
comments are welcome
On the monthly we can see the break , the pull back( making a RT at the same time) and the move away. A Head and Shoulders can be seen also. The right shoulder made a TC, making a divergence between the shoulders at the same time. The target, by the rule is way down at the last dip on the left. Could it reach that level? Why not! But for sure it couldn’t make it in few minutes!
On the 4hrs chart: again there is 3 RT, the last one is also the right shoulder. A divergence also can be seen, expecting a possible move down. At point A: already the target was known if it was going to be a Head and Shoulders figure which happened later. Some 60 pips done already.
comments are welcome
Yvon
- #28,753
- Edited 10:13am Feb 11, 2015 10:02am | Edited 10:13am
AUDNZD:
There was RT and pullback: just applying the rules here, I sold it on the first pulback, then sold it later, both at profit.
above 100 pips gain already.
+++ I am expecting a strong bar down...will it happens? will see...
There was RT and pullback: just applying the rules here, I sold it on the first pulback, then sold it later, both at profit.
above 100 pips gain already.
+++ I am expecting a strong bar down...will it happens? will see...
Yvon
- #28,754
- Feb 11, 2015 11:39am Feb 11, 2015 11:39am
{quote} YVON, Please see chart below. Price has moved passed and closed below the TL. Is it time to pull the trigger? How would you enter this one?{image}
Nic73,
AUDUSD:
Sorry for being late answering your question. I just saw it. But I guess my view on the pair AUDUSD I just wrote on post 28752 could help you about the direction of the pair.
As you can see, most of the time I look for history about a pair, I am not always right, but it gets better on the way. In this case, the history helps me a lot while the 4hrs macd strategy confirms the trade. The strategy supplies the appropriates instruments to get the least pain for the patient on the operating table!
The history starts by observing a chart higher than the chart you base your trade on. In this case we are talking about the 4 hrs chart as the base. Phillip Nel used the daily chart to give direction on the 4hrs chart for the coming week.
In the case shown on post 28752 I used the monthly since I saw a better evidence of a bearish direction on it. Sure there is some loose in the steering, not precise by the numbers to the target,but the general view is stronger! My view is that the pair could tend to go down.
As you know, there is no absolute on my view since the market has and will always have the last word on it. The only thing a trader can do is to anticipate. And in order to anticipate is to know history: what is the tendency of the market? What is the rhythm? Does the candles are making figures as per the strategy? What are the anticipated results could a trader expect out of them? Is there a RT, RB, HS? Then I should expect a move up/down…and so on.
I am glad that you ask the question because there are also other people that could benefit from it too…well! I hope that people can understand me!
Comments are welcome,
Yvon
- #28,755
- Feb 11, 2015 3:01pm Feb 11, 2015 3:01pm
AUD/USD, The Break We’ve Been Looking For
The chart above shows the support level created by several bounces and now broken by today’s candle. Traders looking to participate in this break can place a market order after 5pm ET (Daily candle close) or can set an entry order to sell around 0.8640. A market order will guarantee that we are entered into a trade where as an entry order would give us a better entry price for a more conservative trader.
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Download over 2900 forex robots and indicators for 100% FREE at: http://mt4talk.com/
The chart above shows the support level created by several bounces and now broken by today’s candle. Traders looking to participate in this break can place a market order after 5pm ET (Daily candle close) or can set an entry order to sell around 0.8640. A market order will guarantee that we are entered into a trade where as an entry order would give us a better entry price for a more conservative trader.
------------------SIGNATURE-----------------------
Download over 2900 forex robots and indicators for 100% FREE at: http://mt4talk.com/
- #28,756
- Edited 7:15pm Feb 11, 2015 4:11pm | Edited 7:15pm
I hate loosing money on pullbacks so I got out on all positions temporary.
edit: too bad! I just skip about 60 pips of profit! I had to move away and this what happened! crazy! I should Have stayed in the trades! I guess it is part of learning not mixing trades with (food) recipes!
edit: too bad! I just skip about 60 pips of profit! I had to move away and this what happened! crazy! I should Have stayed in the trades! I guess it is part of learning not mixing trades with (food) recipes!
Yvon
- #28,757
- Feb 12, 2015 8:42am Feb 12, 2015 8:42am
{quote} Nic73, AUDUSD: Sorry for being late answering your question. I just saw it. But I guess my view on the pair AUDUSD I just wrote on post 28752 could help you about the direction of the pair. As you can see, most of the time I look for history about a pair, I am not always right, but it gets better on the way. In this case, the history helps me a lot while the 4hrs macd strategy confirms the trade. The strategy supplies the appropriates instruments to get the least pain for the patient on the operating table! The history starts by observing...
Thanks for your reply.
Yes I agree with you that we could only anticipate the market but the market will always have the last words. I have been thinking how to tie in the different time frame and you kind of answered me here. I need time to digest the above... with reference to charts and I could come back to you with more questions.
But one question I have now, back on AUDUSD. Here the price broke out of the TL so the anticipation is that after the breakout, price could continue its direction (south in this case) BUT price could also stall or pullback to the TL or 21ema? How likely is that to happen. And how likely is price to continue south?
Below, I have a chart of GBPUSD which moved tonight i.e. broke the TL. It move rather quickly, within the 1hr candle. I have the same question as above, is price likely to continue north, stall or pullback? If I was watching this move and do I buy the moment price broke the TL. My concern is could it pullback or stall? How do I tell?
- #28,759
- Feb 12, 2015 8:43pm Feb 12, 2015 8:43pm
Audusd: On the monthly we can see the break , the pull back( making a RT at the same time) and the move away. A Head and Shoulders can be seen also. The right shoulder made a TC, making a divergence between the shoulders at the same time. The target, by the rule is way down at the last dip on the left. Could it reach that level? Why not! But for sure it couldnt make it in few minutes! On the 4hrs chart: again there is 3 RT, the last one is also the right shoulder. A divergence also can be seen, expecting a possible move down. At point A: already...
- #28,760
- Feb 13, 2015 12:36am Feb 13, 2015 12:36am
{quote} YVON, Re: post 28752 - where was your entry in this trade..... after the pull back or after price breakout from the TL? {image}
I took It at the forth arrow on the right.
Reason: it was the 3rd sister or the right shoulder. As you can see that candle broke the neckline and since it was the shoulder or RT , I took the trade. But I needed patience since the pair moved back inside. Patience was supported by the negative divergence between the shoulders:big possibility that the pair would go down. Profit came later.
Yvon