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  • #7,081
  • Feb 4, 2015 3:22pm Feb 4, 2015 3:22pm
Quoting StrayDog
PBR Petrobras management quits, race on to find replacements RIO DE JANEIRO (Reuters) - The chief executive and other senior management at Brazil's Petrobras resigned on Wednesday amid a festering corruption scandal, setting off a scramble to find replacements capable of restoring investor confidence in the state-run oil company....
yup, rumors of this since last week, when the news helped jack up the share price. Management sacked, share price goes up, not good... I didn't get in PBR trades I was thinking of. But there are people who bought the shares at <$6 who will make an easy double in the next year, I'd bet.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,082
  • Feb 4, 2015 3:25pm Feb 4, 2015 3:25pm
Quoting The Fool
lol, Greece news a feeble bugle call in the graveyard where the bond vigilantes are buried....you can't kill the Boogey Man, what I heard....
Nope. Because he is just like Jason from Friday the 13th....
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,083
  • Feb 4, 2015 3:29pm Feb 4, 2015 3:29pm
Quoting The Fool
lol, Greece news a feeble bugle call in the graveyard where the bond vigilantes are buried....you can't kill the Boogey Man, what I heard....
slap down that uppity euro, too
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,084
  • Feb 4, 2015 3:34pm Feb 4, 2015 3:34pm
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} Nope. Because he is just like Jason from Friday the 13th....
we'll see. I heard Jason had retired and was working in the back of a bowling alley, but he's still got the hockey mask, I bet. Will watch the other "peripheral" sovereign bonds. Maybe the "peripheral" minions of Greece will tighten up and get with the program?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,085
  • Feb 4, 2015 3:46pm Feb 4, 2015 3:46pm
Quoting The Fool
Maybe the "peripheral" minions of Greece will tighten up and get with the program?
all minions tighten up

Inserted Video
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,086
  • Feb 4, 2015 3:49pm Feb 4, 2015 3:49pm
Quoting The Fool
look what AAPL did at the green dojis on 12/3, 12/29...are we there again? The AAPL Feb2/Feb $109/$108 put spread risks $0.12 to make max $0.69 at around $109.35 - $110.00
no doji, AAPL touched $120....there are easier short equity pullback trades to be found...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,087
  • Feb 4, 2015 10:01pm Feb 4, 2015 10:01pm
EXPE double calendar. Difference between front and back week options iv is 40-50%
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,088
  • Feb 4, 2015 10:09pm Feb 4, 2015 10:09pm
EXPE double calendar. Difference between front and back week options iv is 40-50%. I don't like EXPE bid/ask spreads, though......
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Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-02-04_expe.png Size: 65 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,089
  • Feb 5, 2015 1:02am Feb 5, 2015 1:02am
I looked at SPY, IWM, will look at Q's, ... can not find a $1 put spread for credit, have to go $2 and even then no credit or if it's there, small, typically $2 spreads are @ small debit...put side iv's almost 2 x comparable otm call side options iv's...

IWM been ranging $6-7 since Halloween, could do a $122/$123 for $0.09 credit, but I'd be afraid...I still think US equities can push up new highs in Q1 if Greece wicket not too sticky.
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Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-02-04_iwm2.png Size: 58 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,090
  • Feb 5, 2015 2:22am Feb 5, 2015 2:22am
I still say oil bottomed @ sub $45

see USO call diagonals, 2 mo out, otm $1 spread gets free entry
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,091
  • Feb 5, 2015 5:44am Feb 5, 2015 5:44am
Quoting The Fool
I still say oil bottomed @ sub $45 see USO call diagonals, 2 mo out, otm $1 spread gets free entry
When you say 2 months out, you mean the short strike should be there? Like Apr/May?
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,092
  • Edited 9:11am Feb 5, 2015 8:57am | Edited 9:11am
Quoting StrayDog
I did this short strangle as earnings play.... GMCR Feb6 102/142 for 1.09 CR, stock traded at $122.30 {image}
Closed the put side right after open (sold for $0.47, closed for $0.20), afraid of possible follow-trough of the down move... To be honest, I lack the nerves to watch stock dancing on the edge of the expected move.

Now closed call side for $0.01, that I sold yesterday for $0.62. (note the inverted skew... meaning equidistant calls were more expensive... well... )

This gives me total of $85 per strangle, after comms. Finally a winner.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,093
  • Feb 5, 2015 10:02am Feb 5, 2015 10:02am
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} When you say 2 months out, you mean the short strike should be there? Like Apr/May?
right, Apr/May $24/$25, for instance, $0.03 debit now, I want it for credit...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,094
  • Feb 5, 2015 10:04am Feb 5, 2015 10:04am
Quoting StrayDog
This gives me total of $85 per strangle, after comms. Finally a winner.


Days like today will freak ya out on the SPY diagonal we are in, but there is time still...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,095
  • Feb 5, 2015 10:11am Feb 5, 2015 10:11am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Days like today will freak ya out on the SPY diagonal we are in, but there is time still...
Yeah, even if it goes trough b/e point, there will be time for pullback...

I didn't expected such a strong pullback on GMCR... could bought back the put for $0.05... never-mind.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,096
  • Feb 5, 2015 11:13am Feb 5, 2015 11:13am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} right, Apr/May $24/$25, for instance, $0.03 debit now, I want it for credit...
$0.01 credit now @ mid-point...

That would imply a 30% rally in 2 months to achieve max profit? This $24 price on USO, it is like ~%65 on /CL?
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,097
  • Feb 5, 2015 12:29pm Feb 5, 2015 12:29pm
Thinking about ER's today... .TWTR, LNKD, GPRO, P...

Interested in short strangle on TWTR... like 34 / 50... it is about $0.50 credit for weeklies, and $1.05 credit for Feb monthly options...

This is loger term version, with 15 DTE
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: TWTR_FebSS.PNG Size: 486 KB


Maybe even put orders for stock itself on 1.5 SD move... both for long / short. In case of yet another crazy move, like 20-30%, it will give back at least 1/3 of it...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,098
  • Feb 5, 2015 12:53pm Feb 5, 2015 12:53pm
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} $0.01 credit now @ mid-point... That would imply a 30% rally in 2 months to achieve max profit? This $24 price on USO, it is like ~%65 on /CL?
USO $25 would take WTI (/CL) around $65/bbl
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,099
  • Edited 2:19pm Feb 5, 2015 2:05pm | Edited 2:19pm
LNKD...

This is what she did...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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This is what I did ... LNKD Short Strangle Feb6 200/270 for $1.56 CR
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: LNKD-ER-SS.PNG Size: 490 KB


Estimated move is about $18... well I did 2x that, very wide (hoping it is wide enough)

Interesting thing... when you enter position as strangle, you get m/l equal price on both options, but individually - now calls are 2x the put price... hmm... market expecting an up move... (but "they" expected the up move on GMCR also, just saying)
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,100
  • Feb 5, 2015 3:16pm Feb 5, 2015 3:16pm
Pandora....

Attached Image


YELP also has ER's... forgot about it...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
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