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  • #7,061
  • Feb 3, 2015 11:20pm Feb 3, 2015 11:20pm
look what AAPL did at the green dojis on 12/3, 12/29...are we there again? The AAPL Feb2/Feb $109/$108 put spread risks $0.12 to make max $0.69 at around $109.35 - $110.00
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,062
  • Edited Feb 4, 2015 12:01am Feb 3, 2015 11:43pm | Edited Feb 4, 2015 12:01am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} No fill on YUM, may roll the bones on an earnings trade or 2, maybe not.
looking next week, 2/10: Z; 2/11: CSCO, FEYE; 2/12: GRPN
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,063
  • Feb 3, 2015 11:45pm Feb 3, 2015 11:45pm
CSCO dbl calendar, get in for <$0.05, maybe $0.02
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,064
  • Feb 4, 2015 8:56am Feb 4, 2015 8:56am
looking to do a vertical call spread on SPY, I can get 207/50 for 5c now but looking a little lower 206.50/207

SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
-NYSEArca
204.27 https://s.yimg.com/lq/i/us/fi/03rd/down_r.gif 0.57(0.28%) 14:55 - Nasdaq Real Time Price

just waiting for ISM numbers
  • #7,065
  • Feb 4, 2015 9:10am Feb 4, 2015 9:10am
Quoting Cecil Gee
looking to do a vertical call spread on SPY, I can get 207/50 for 5c now but looking a little lower 206.50/207 SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) -NYSEArca 204.27 {image} 0.57(0.28%) 14:55 - Nasdaq Real Time Price just waiting for ISM numbers
gonna wait on this to see what market really wants to do
  • #7,066
  • Feb 4, 2015 9:20am Feb 4, 2015 9:20am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Well, SPY is up $5.50 in the last 1-1/2 trading days! I know I don't have to remind you how vicious these index melt-ups can be. So, Mar expiry is just a long ways off, and if we crash up thru $210 well before then, the $210/$211 call diagonal will be in loss. If SPY keeps going up and goes out beyond the b/e, you are on the death slide & have to make a decision about what to do. That's the major risk. I like to play these with less dte, or more room, or both. My Feb1/Feb2...
Hey TF...
1) So, what is a b/e point for those 210/211 that we have ? ...

2) Yeah, I start to imagine what is really tricky about diagonals - you have to be directionally right, but also to time the expected move correctly... In case of vertical debit spread, you don't care if it is half a buck ITM or $5 ITM... hm... Less dte, and more room. Like these same strikes, but lets say Feb2/Feb3...
If price just go trough your diagonal, beyond b/e point, you can wait and pray for pullback or close with the loss...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,067
  • Feb 4, 2015 9:25am Feb 4, 2015 9:25am
crude inventory data up in a few minutes, WTI on the bubble around $50, up or down, oil the big black booger in the room
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,068
  • Feb 4, 2015 9:33am Feb 4, 2015 9:33am
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} Hey TF... 1) So, what is a b/e point for those 210/211 that we have ? ... 2) Yeah, I start to imagine what is really tricky about diagonals - you have to be directionally right, but also to time the expected move correctly... In case of vertical debit spread, you don't care if it is half a buck ITM or $5 ITM... hm... Less dte, and more room. Like these same strikes, but lets say Feb2/Feb3... If price just go trough your diagonal, beyond b/e point, you can wait and pray for pullback or close with the loss...
b/e on mine is almost $213, I entered actual $0.00, I was just a little nervous about the time. Yeah, since the profit potential for diagonals (calendars, too) really only intensifies in the last dte's, it's nice to play them shorter
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,069
  • Feb 4, 2015 9:37am Feb 4, 2015 9:37am
Quoting The Fool
crude inventory data up in a few minutes, WTI on the bubble around $50, up or down, oil the big black booger in the room
print bigger than forecast, no surprise...we'll see if wti can put in a good dip below $50 in coming days, but I suspect sub $45 was the bottom
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,070
  • Feb 4, 2015 9:42am Feb 4, 2015 9:42am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} print bigger than forecast, no surprise...we'll see if wti can put in a good dip below $50 in coming days, but I suspect sub $45 was the bottom
almost seems to be oil is the swing indicator these days - weak oil/strong dollar, not vice versa
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,071
  • Feb 4, 2015 9:54am Feb 4, 2015 9:54am
Quoting StrayDog
GILD, CMG and DIS in AH. I don't like any of those.......
Outlier moves on GILD, DIS, even MRK... I did none of those potential ER's trades, and didn't even look at CMG.

Lots of outlier moves recently... I wonder is it because it is a first cycle for the year? But now is not the time for every company to report for 2014, right? Fiscal years can differ from calendar years in US?
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,072
  • Feb 4, 2015 9:56am Feb 4, 2015 9:56am
Quoting StrayDog
... hm... Less dte, and more room. Like these same strikes, but lets say Feb2/Feb3... If price just go trough your diagonal, beyond b/e point, you can wait and pray for pullback or close with the loss...
I didn't see any Feb2/Feb call diagonals that looked doable for very low debit or small credit. If I'm gonna tie up a chunk of margin I want to get in as close to free as possible.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,073
  • Feb 4, 2015 10:32am Feb 4, 2015 10:32am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I didn't see any Feb2/Feb call diagonals that looked doable for very low debit or small credit. If I'm gonna tie up a chunk of margin I want to get in as close to free as possible.
Yeah, absolutely my friend, there are no cheap stuff in that period, I just used it as a reference for less dte... I looked also, couldn't find anything cheap.

Looks like /ES wants to go to 2048/50 today... did a small short from 2040 to 2036.75, but missed the long from 2034...

Re those SPY diagonals... well if we smell trouble, I will close all or half for small loss. There are things to learn about them.
These recent frequent ER's outlier moves are giving me cold feet to enter, although I had good ideas for YHOO, FB, some other names...
GMCR, FOXA, YUM - today in AH...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,074
  • Feb 4, 2015 10:37am Feb 4, 2015 10:37am
@SDog, yeah, we'll see on SPY ... $213 is up there ... there will be some battles @ $208-$210, 3/20 is a ways out but there will be some slow days, maybe pullbacks. I am shopping SPY puts for a diagonal on the other end
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,075
  • Feb 4, 2015 10:40am Feb 4, 2015 10:40am
Quoting Cecil Gee
looking to do a vertical call spread on SPY, I can get 207/50 for 5c now but looking a little lower 206.50/207 SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) -NYSEArca 204.27 {image} 0.57(0.28%) 14:55 - Nasdaq Real Time Price just waiting for ISM numbers
decided on a whole dollar vertical, I'm long 207 and wrote 208 for net 12c and SPY real time price

SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
-NYSEArca
204.99 https://s.yimg.com/lq/i/us/fi/03rd/up_g.gif 0.15(0.07%) 4:39PM GMT - Nasdaq Real Time Price

SPY Feb 2015 207.000 call (SPY150206C00207000)
-OPR
0.17 https://s.yimg.com/lq/i/us/fi/03rd/down_r.gif 0.08(32.00%) 16:17

SPY Feb 2015 208.000 call (SPY150206C00208000)
-OPR
0.05 https://s.yimg.com/lq/i/us/fi/03rd/down_r.gif 0.05(50.00%) 16:21
  • #7,076
  • Feb 4, 2015 12:28pm Feb 4, 2015 12:28pm
PBR

Petrobras management quits, race on to find replacements

RIO DE JANEIRO (Reuters) - The chief executive and other senior management at Brazil's Petrobras resigned on Wednesday amid a festering corruption scandal, setting off a scramble to find replacements capable of restoring investor confidence in the state-run oil company....
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,077
  • Feb 4, 2015 2:24pm Feb 4, 2015 2:24pm
I did this short strangle as earnings play....

GMCR Feb6 102/142 for 1.09 CR, stock traded at $122.30

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GMCR-ER-SS.PNG Size: 480 KB
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,078
  • Feb 4, 2015 2:50pm Feb 4, 2015 2:50pm
ah...

Greece May Run Out of Cash as Early as March


Quoting StrayDog
....Looks like /ES wants to go to 2048/50 today...
Yup. "They" let the ES goes right to resistance, and then WHAM!
What a news / resistance synchronization...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,079
  • Feb 4, 2015 3:09pm Feb 4, 2015 3:09pm
lol, Greece news a feeble bugle call in the graveyard where the bond vigilantes are buried....you can't kill the Boogey Man, what I heard....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,080
  • Feb 4, 2015 3:19pm Feb 4, 2015 3:19pm
Quoting StrayDog
I did this short strangle as earnings play.... GMCR Feb6 102/142 for 1.09 CR, stock traded at $122.30 {image}
looks like a good one, so far...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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