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Geppy's Geppy Thread (GBP/JPY)

  • #17,161
  • Feb 4, 2015 9:48pm Feb 4, 2015 9:48pm
Quoting Mpt
{quote} What? It's taken you this long to work out they're all a bunch of time wasters? But I admit, the Europeans do tend to 'shine'.
If by "shine", you mean "being utterly reprehensible and ill-timed cunts", then yes, I candidly agree.

I have two longs at 177.80 and 177.90 respectively. But even with adding new longs, The loss I had from the Greek surprise still stunng. Still in the game though, and it seems that my prediction a few horus earlier was right.

We retained our bullish momentum. Waiting for the targets I listed in previous posts.

Good luck, everyone.
  • #17,162
  • Feb 4, 2015 9:52pm Feb 4, 2015 9:52pm
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} previously, the gbp/jpy tried to end the NY session with a support on 178.50, with an attempt to go higher, but it was then rejected by the surprise ECB rejection of the Greek bonds. The announcement came at the last 30 minutes of the NY session

Honestly, this FALL was unnatural, given that it was caused by a sudden event (and the fall took place during the limbo hour between markets, since NY ended when much of the drop happened). I'd rather wait and see than to hedge bets right now.
Well, for the time being, my forex analysis is still on the mark. It's good to know that even surprise events like the Greek bond rejection didn't invalidate my analysis.

....Still wish they didn't force me to take losses and leave for the time being, though. That cost me a good chunk of this week's profit. Then again, sitting on losing trades isn't my style. Meh.
  • #17,163
  • Feb 4, 2015 10:21pm Feb 4, 2015 10:21pm
Should it break back over 178.8/179 again, I'll buy it big. Otherwise, at this time of the day, (2-20 pm here and similar times in Japan/Singapore/europe still asleep) I always view such moves as corrective.

It's present structure (and for the past 36 hours) has it operating about 178.3, which is today's daily pivot. Above or below that pivot determines its immediate future.
  • #17,164
  • Feb 5, 2015 1:30am Feb 5, 2015 1:30am
Quoting Mpt
Should it break back over 178.8/179 again, I'll buy it big. Otherwise, at this time of the day, (2-20 pm here and similar times in Japan/Singapore/europe still asleep) I always view such moves as corrective. It's present structure (and for the past 36 hours) has it operating about 178.3, which is today's daily pivot. Above or below that pivot determines its immediate future.
And by that, I refer to the chart. When you see a price pattern that looks a bit like this, it suggests a breakup or down is close. The break out point is usually retested, especially if certain TFs are a bit stretched. Whilst they can break out and fail, the NORMAL expectation is that price will travel at least the height of the formation.

If nothing really breaks significantly either way and just goes sideways, it tends to argue in favour of a continuation.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #17,165
  • Feb 5, 2015 5:58am Feb 5, 2015 5:58am
It broke out and stopped thus far at the fib 88 retracement, which is where exhaustive but failed waves will terminate. Ideally it will hold at or above 178.8. Only a 4hr close under there would suggest failure.
  • #17,166
  • Feb 5, 2015 6:44am Feb 5, 2015 6:44am
Quoting Mpt
It broke out and stopped thus far at the fib 88 retracement, which is where exhaustive but failed waves will terminate. Ideally it will hold at or above 178.8. Only a 4hr close under there would suggest failure.
Got it in one, Mpt. See you in 179.40/20.
  • #17,167
  • Feb 5, 2015 7:59am Feb 5, 2015 7:59am
Quoting Mpt
{quote} And by that, I refer to the chart. When you see a price pattern that looks a bit like this, it suggests a breakup or down is close. The break out point is usually retested, especially if certain TFs are a bit stretched. Whilst they can break out and fail, the NORMAL expectation is that price will travel at least the height of the formation. If nothing really breaks significantly either way and just goes sideways, it tends to argue in favour of a continuation. {image}
Formation height 163 pips. Distance travelled to 179.8 from breakout at 178.8 is 103 pips = height x 0.618. Otherwise 180.3.
  • #17,168
  • Feb 5, 2015 8:11am Feb 5, 2015 8:11am
Quoting Mpt
{quote} Formation height 163 pips. Distance travelled to 179.8 from breakout at 178.8 is 103 pips = height x 0.618. Otherwise 180.3.
We'll see that number eventually. Currently in pullback mode.
  • #17,169
  • Feb 5, 2015 9:48pm Feb 5, 2015 9:48pm
At this point, I go back to my much earlier chart - now updated.

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  • #17,170
  • Feb 5, 2015 10:18pm Feb 5, 2015 10:18pm
This monthly chart explains why I keep a bullish bias in my mind about GJ. It looks like it is rejecting a retest of broken SMA200 resistance. I would say we are going to make another try at that 50 fib line around 185.

Remember it is a monthly chart, it does not have to happen today.
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  • #17,171
  • Feb 6, 2015 2:15am Feb 6, 2015 2:15am
Previous position taken out at BE... Another short in progress....
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80% effort, 20% luck
  • #17,172
  • Edited 1:14am Feb 9, 2015 12:38am | Edited 1:14am
Whilst it has broken up, it still looks somewhat precarious. I'm half expecting more upside, but would not be surprised to see failure at or around 182.2/3/4. A good hold over 182.5/6 and it's up - again. It's either genuinely bullish now, or nearing exhaustion.

Of course, it may have already completed, but to some extent my ASSUMPTION about a marginal new high is predicated on UJ also making a slight new high to finish the fourth leg of a triangle. I suspect GU has finished its correction. So these assumptions tallied together suggest it's either topped, or has a very small distance yet to travel.
Again, over 182.5/6 it continues up.
  • #17,173
  • Feb 9, 2015 1:18am Feb 9, 2015 1:18am
Quoting Mpt
Whilst it has broken up, it still looks somewhat precarious. I'm half expecting more upside, but would not be surprised to see failure at or around 182.2/3. A good hold over 182.5/6 and it's up - again. It's either genuinely bullish now, or nearing exhaustion. Of course, it may have already completed, but to some extent my ASSUMPTION about a marginal new high is predicated on UJ also making a slight new high to finish the fourth leg of a triangle. I suspect GU has finished its correction. So these assumptions tallied together suggest it's either...
Should continue to show range bound characteristics meaning a clear retracement coupled by a move further up. There is a clear support turned resistance at 182.2/3 like you said which if broken should be clear enough for a broader uptrend to continue.

IMO if you have already got off the train moving up, wait for a better level to re-enter.
Luck shines on the positive.
  • #17,174
  • Feb 9, 2015 2:17am Feb 9, 2015 2:17am
Regardless as to whether it extends to a new high or not, I expect it to fail soon. GJ bounced from the 61.8 retracement area. GJ hardly ever bounces much from there - in a correction, it always targets the 76 area minimum. Eventually, the down trend returns. It remains on the line (that it broke) ............


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  • #17,175
  • Edited Feb 10, 2015 12:38am Feb 9, 2015 11:51pm | Edited Feb 10, 2015 12:38am
The apparent correlation between GU and UJ is interesting. More so, the hold at 180.2, being the 38 retracement of the move 177.5/181.8 - and the 23.6 retrace for the whole move up from 175.5
  • #17,176
  • Feb 10, 2015 1:13am Feb 10, 2015 1:13am
Quoting Mpt
The apparent correlation between GU and UJ is interesting. More so, the hold at 180.2, being the 38 retracement of the move 177.5/181.8 - and the 23.6 retrace for the whole move up from 175.5
Yeah, I see it. Do you think this bounce to 180.80 is a sign to head back higher? Or is it a last minute peak before falling down below? Because for the love of me, I can't tell.

180.80 is around the 23.6 retracement as well, so it already touched the "resistance", so to speak. (Edit: The next place left is to go back to 181.30/20, which is the next resistance.)

We've had a lack of clear direction for nearly 20 hours; London better give us something.
  • #17,177
  • Feb 10, 2015 1:30am Feb 10, 2015 1:30am
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} Yeah, I see it. Do you think this bounce to 180.80 is a sign to head back higher? Or is it a last minute peak before falling down below? Because for the love of me, I can't tell. 180.80 is around the 23.6 retracement as well, so it already touched the "resistance", so to speak. We've had a lack of clear direction for nearly 20 hours; London better give us something.
Yes, i think it will at least have a go up to 181.1/2 (or break up????). Re the correlation, notice how almost every move is the same on the other pair. It's been happening for a few days - but may not last. GU could well fail right here. The only minor problem I have with them is that I can't tell if they're really bullish. I still anticipate that UJ will make a new high - at least in it's possible triangle. On that topic, if UJ is a 5 leg triangle, it will fall back into 117x - then rise. If it's a 3 wave triangle it only falls back into 119 ish before higher.

Have a long running right now, but really don't know where it might go.
  • #17,178
  • Feb 10, 2015 2:58am Feb 10, 2015 2:58am
My preference here is for fail and run down to 178.5 ish
  • #17,179
  • Feb 10, 2015 5:11am Feb 10, 2015 5:11am
And the TL holds so far. Can be broken by NFP (last week), FOMC, BOE and BOJ. Otherwise, only broken decisively once by 'the general market' in 172 weeks (the launch up from 159)- and then it spent 40 weeks trying to back underneath. Maybe it'll break right now? I have no idea .... but it's a toughie.
  • #17,180
  • Feb 10, 2015 5:28am Feb 10, 2015 5:28am
Quoting Mpt
Regardless as to whether it extends to a new high or not, I expect it to fail soon. GJ bounced from the 61.8 retracement area. GJ hardly ever bounces much from there - in a correction, it always targets the 76 area minimum. Eventually, the down trend returns.


I hope you are talking about the Monthly chart though.

Because otherwise, it's still bullish.
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