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Dragon Riders GBP/JPY

  • #3,201
  • Feb 4, 2015 9:37am Feb 4, 2015 9:37am
Quoting Vermillion
And me being a scalp addict, I find this to be very....very...tempting.
Hi Vermillion
What spread do you get on GJ?
I'm practicing spotting tight entries on 15min wicks but the spread on this thing can be a bit of a pita....
Cheers
used to be undecided but nowadays can't make my mind up
  • #3,202
  • Edited 10:05am Feb 4, 2015 9:45am | Edited 10:05am
Quoting mrcreosote
{quote} Hi Vermillion What spread do you get on GJ? I'm practicing spotting tight entries on 15min wicks but the spread on this thing can be a bit of a pita.... Cheers
Depends on the broker, but the one I'm using right now to trade the geppy is very sensitive to volatility. When we have a massive movement, spreads can be as high as 8.3pips, but generally, it's 2-3 pips (4 pip spread for moderate volatility with movements in dozens of pips within half an hour). But their leverage is high, and with trade size management, it's still profitable. I find this one to be best for intraday trend trading, when taking spreads, commission, reliability, and leverage into consideration.

Right now it's 2 pips.

Charts seem to be heading down. Bears are testing the last bit of bull strength, maybe? We'll see a 100pip movement in one direction soon enough.

We have EUR/USD on the 1.14 support, so there's trouble there; we have the gbp/usd currently near resistance on the 4 hourly, and many other pairs seem to be testing key areas. Great. It's a cork waiting to pop.

Update: Bullish trendline held for now. Better retest 179.20, or I'm just leaving.
  • #3,203
  • Feb 4, 2015 12:14pm Feb 4, 2015 12:14pm
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
{quote} Maybe this is it then.. price already started to fall..
I think this is only a retrace and not a reversal. No significant resistance until 180.40 which is the near the 50 EMA on the Daily chart. This goes along with GBP/USD hitting a wall at 1.5350. This is where I have failed in the past and I believe it is the same failure of the 95%. In my early days I would place a sell order here and get blown away because I did not understand multiple time frames and especially the daily chart. I would always get half of the picture correct but not the other. GBP/JPY however has a much wider range and even the retraces are trades themselves.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #3,204
  • Edited 12:44pm Feb 4, 2015 12:31pm | Edited 12:44pm
Look for retest of the broken descending triangle resistance (now support). If it bounces, we're probably going to retest 179.20/00 and 180.20/00 if the former is breached. If it's not tested at all and still goes up back to 179.20/00, the same thing applies.

If the resistance becomes support, more chances of shorting. Major support (once again) at 175.70, but the entire range is up for grabs between bulls and bears.

We're probably going to see 180.20/00 before we go down to 175.70 and/or below, if that happens.

More concerned about Friday, which could possibly re-ignite the entire bullish trend to the 180s and beyond. If it's dovish however, then more choppy range trading & downward momentum.
  • #3,205
  • Feb 4, 2015 12:55pm Feb 4, 2015 12:55pm
166.50 end of month
  • #3,206
  • Feb 4, 2015 2:20pm Feb 4, 2015 2:20pm
Hey guys...looking at GJ daily...we are at the top of the consolidation range...we have the UK rate decision tomorrow morning and I have a feeling it could propel us up out of this range, with NFPs on Friday we could see a potential target hit at the DTL around 180.xx. I have a small position this morning open at 179.00. Only targeting top of 15 minute consolidation range at 179.20(10 pips below the high). Once this is hit I will look for a better opportunity tomorrow morning.
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Good luck and may the odds be ever in your favor!
  • #3,207
  • Feb 4, 2015 2:42pm Feb 4, 2015 2:42pm
Quoting dbutton1990
Hey guys...looking at GJ daily...we are at the top of the consolidation range...we have the UK rate decision tomorrow morning and I have a feeling it could propel us up out of this range, with NFPs on Friday we could see a potential target hit at the DTL around 180.xx. I have a small position this morning open at 179.00. Only targeting top of 15 minute consolidation range at 179.20(10 pips below the high). Once this is hit I will look for a better opportunity tomorrow morning. {image}
We seem to be seeing a last minute rejection of the 178.50 fib point in the NY session. If this pattern continues, yes-180.20/00 will be the next target. Any further choppy movements would only delay the inevitable as long as the pattern remains intact

However, it won't be long before we see at least a small pullback in the 180s. From here, it's touch and go. I have no further outstanding biases at the moment in terms of intraday predictions; 180.20 is my last goal for the week. It's not so much as the data about the U.K. that concerns me so much as the approaching Friday, which will be the lynchpin for next week.

I imagine at least 20% of people who trade on Friday prior to news announcement will lose a good chunk of their accounts. Better to be late in a market than caught in a bull/bear trap.

Update: Back to square one. We've only 16 minutes in NY session, by the way.
  • #3,208
  • Feb 4, 2015 2:51pm Feb 4, 2015 2:51pm
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} We seem to be seeing a last minute rejection of the 178.50 fib point in the NY session. If this pattern continues, yes-180.20/00 will be the next target. Any further choppy movements would only delay the inevitable as long as the pattern remains intact However, it won't be long before we see at least a small pullback in the 180s. From here, it's touch and go. I have no further outstanding biases at the moment in terms of intraday predictions; 180.20 is my last goal for the week. It's not so much as the data about the U.K. that concerns me...
Be careful ECB are playing a game of chicken with Greece.....
used to be undecided but nowadays can't make my mind up
  • #3,209
  • Feb 4, 2015 2:57pm Feb 4, 2015 2:57pm
Quoting mrcreosote
{quote} Be careful ECB are playing a game of chicken with Greece.....
Obviously. It shouldn't affect gbp/jpy to a new support/resistance, though. NY session is done for, and after that we'll have a lull period which would lead to furious volatility but little headway due to news. That's my take, at least.
  • #3,210
  • Feb 4, 2015 3:28pm Feb 4, 2015 3:28pm
178 is it now support?
Soar on my wings, you'll touch the hand of God, he'll make you King.
  • #3,211
  • Feb 4, 2015 3:36pm Feb 4, 2015 3:36pm
Quoting whatever007
178 is it now support?
No. All bets are off; we're hitting old supports right now. tere's bank run fear in greece.
  • #3,212
  • Feb 4, 2015 4:28pm Feb 4, 2015 4:28pm
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} No. All bets are off; we're hitting old supports right now. tere's bank run fear in greece.
Ah Greece again. Still held 177.80 which was the morning low.
Soar on my wings, you'll touch the hand of God, he'll make you King.
  • #3,213
  • Feb 4, 2015 5:30pm Feb 4, 2015 5:30pm
Quoting whatever007
{quote} Ah Greece again. Still held 177.80 which was the morning low.
Depending on the tokyo chart movement, I may long once more.

Honestly, we had a fair chance for an upwards movement (we held the 178.50 right up to end of the NY sesssion) when it suddenly fell. Rather impressive when you considered that much of the fall occured after NY session closed, and we were essentially trading in between the markets.

Right now though, best to wait how Asia reacts. Key support/resistance is same as before, but I don't know about the descending triangle trendline.
  • #3,214
  • Feb 4, 2015 5:33pm Feb 4, 2015 5:33pm
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} Obviously. It shouldn't affect gbp/jpy to a new support/resistance, though. NY session is done for, and after that we'll have a lull period which would lead to furious volatility but little headway due to news. That's my take, at least.
Oh wow. No new support or resistance. What a surprise. Actually impressed by the extent of the fall, however. The end of NY session would have likely aided in a fall right here to 177.80. NY investors pulled back as there was little volatility time left to move it up, and within a market limbo, even the slightest tremor could send prices tipping.
  • #3,215
  • Feb 4, 2015 8:21pm Feb 4, 2015 8:21pm
Quoting whatever007
{quote} Ah Greece again. Still held 177.80 which was the morning low.
Try a long here from 80, action doesn't looks so hot that's for sure.
Soar on my wings, you'll touch the hand of God, he'll make you King.
  • #3,216
  • Feb 4, 2015 8:57pm Feb 4, 2015 8:57pm
Quoting whatever007
{quote} Try a long here from 80, action doesn't looks so hot that's for sure.
A good price. I recommend you get ready to close your positions in case things go sour. If you keep a good eye on the charts, you shouldn't lose more than 30,40 pips.
  • #3,217
  • Feb 4, 2015 9:13pm Feb 4, 2015 9:13pm
Thanks, took some partials here as we approach 20. Keep a tight leash on the rest.
Soar on my wings, you'll touch the hand of God, he'll make you King.
  • #3,218
  • Feb 4, 2015 9:40pm Feb 4, 2015 9:40pm
fresh news may have a place for my spike down I keep posting about......Greece anouncement so i loaded up a buy order way down there......
  • #3,219
  • Feb 4, 2015 9:49pm Feb 4, 2015 9:49pm
Quoting Gbp/jpy
fresh news may have a place for my spike down I keep posting about......Greece anouncement so i loaded up a buy order way down there......
I'm going to keep adding longs. Already got longs at the 177.80/70 support, and just added another one. Probably going to TP at yesterday's high and then reload for potential movement up.
  • #3,220
  • Feb 4, 2015 9:53pm Feb 4, 2015 9:53pm
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} I'm going to keep adding longs. Already got longs at the 177.80/70 support, and just added another one. Probably going to TP at yesterday's high and then reload for potential movement up.
Siding with your analysis, considering that USD/JPY has more headroom to grow, it might help bring GBP/JPY higher.
Good luck!
Luck shines on the positive.
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