Spider's Den | Page 1041 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread
Attachments: Spider's Den
Exit Attachments

Spider's Den

  • #20,801
  • Feb 3, 2015 4:48am Feb 3, 2015 4:48am
Quoting polatok
{quote} i am confused how to use use this indicator. please if anyone can explain that will be good. thanks.
If your broker is NY Closing time, just attach it to your chart
  • #20,802
  • Feb 3, 2015 4:56am Feb 3, 2015 4:56am
Quoting PariCovek
Technology/Electronics/Cars - All under the Manufacturing umbrella definitely. Also, Construction PMI as well. Just an example, Copper in cars many years ago didn't exceed more than 3kg. Now a conventional car contains 15kg of copper on average, hybrid cars contain 30-40kg, and a full electric vehicle, 60kg. Chinese electronic grid is going to require massive amounts of copper in the future, same when India goes on a similar Investment binge once their economic reforms are complete. As they say there is tight supply, it was no wonder that many Copper...
Interesting analysis, thanks for that. On the same but completely different topic, what are your thoughts on silver? It seems to me to be at a bit of a crossroads at the moment.
  • #20,803
  • Feb 3, 2015 5:03am Feb 3, 2015 5:03am
Quoting Greeny
{quote} Interesting analysis, thanks for that. On the same but completely different topic, what are your thoughts on silver? It seems to me to be at a bit of a crossroads at the moment.
Silver seems to be at the top end of pricing when you compare it on the Gold / Silver ratio (refer to 10 Year chart).

http://www.kitco.com/Gold_Silver_Rat...io-charts.html

I posted some thoughts on Gold late last week, and I believe Gold is on a downward trend, if it breaks north of USD1320/oz+ within the next 2 weeks then the Gold Bugs may come out in force.

Most Equities Markets seem to be fully priced, so its literally setup for another Gold run, but I think the QE and Rate Cutting will spur Equities for a bit longer and Gold will retreat. Silver follows Gold, although it may have a harding landing because it seems to be on the higher end of the Gold/Silver ratio in my opinion.

I haven't analysed Silver mines before, so I'm not sure what the average cost of producing Silver is, which generally is the longer term floor to its price.
  • #20,804
  • Feb 3, 2015 5:17am Feb 3, 2015 5:17am
Quoting PariCovek
{quote} Silver seems to be at the top end of pricing when you compare it on the Gold / Silver ratio (refer to 10 Year chart). http://www.kitco.com/Gold_Silver_Rat...io-charts.html I posted some thoughts on Gold late last week, and I believe Gold is on a downward trend, if it breaks north of USD1320/oz+ within the next 2 weeks then the Gold Bugs may come out in force. Most Equities Markets seem to be fully priced, so its literally setup for another Gold run, but I think the QE and Rate Cutting will spur Equities for...
Thanks for that. I agree re gold heading south and also with your comments re equity markets. We seem to be going through some "different" times at the moment so some of the things we are used to appear to be a bit "uncoupled". Most producers are quoting their production cost around $18 some to $20, so at current levels, no joy. Their predictions for the average price for the coming year are around $22.50. Seems like a very lacklustre market after a few years of rise and fall. Some pundits are making the "brave" call of silver performing better than gold this year. i don't think that is really a bold call, like you, I see it transitioning down.
Always nice to hear someone else's thoughts...especially with the right accent!.
  • #20,805
  • Feb 3, 2015 5:40am Feb 3, 2015 5:40am
Quoting PariCovek
Technology/Electronics/Cars - All under the Manufacturing umbrella definitely. Also, Construction PMI as well. Just an example, Copper in cars many years ago didn't exceed more than 3kg. Now a conventional car contains 15kg of copper on average, hybrid cars contain 30-40kg, and a full electric vehicle, 60kg. Chinese electronic grid is going to require massive amounts of copper in the future, same when India goes on a similar Investment binge once their economic reforms are complete. As they say there is tight supply, it was no wonder that many Copper...
Thanks for explanation! Much useful!
  • #20,806
  • Feb 3, 2015 5:54am Feb 3, 2015 5:54am
AUDUSD dropped heavily after RBA decided to cut rates by 0.25 %. 7625 is the daily low and there is a possibility of a second retest where the break of 7625 would aim for 7600. 7720-30 is POC where we see a nice confluence of previous low, 50.0 fib and L5 which acts as a resistance. This spot is a good place to short it towards 7625-00. We can also see a descending trendline which has confirmed the downtrend after the rate cut.


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-02-03_12-45-38.jpg Size: 182 KB
  • #20,807
  • Feb 3, 2015 7:43am Feb 3, 2015 7:43am
What's going on with the EUR/USD pair?
  • #20,808
  • Feb 3, 2015 7:46am Feb 3, 2015 7:46am
Quoting PariCovek
What's going on with the EUR/USD pair?
EURUSD intraday uptrend + http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2015/0...-a-quick-move/

Also adding recent comments about Greek debt. Still it was meant to go higher according to technical analysis.


Quoting T@rantula
EURUSD has formed a bullish daily pattern and broke through 1400 and in the context of intraday trading we can assume intraday is bullish. 1300-1325 is a POC confluence zone. If the price gives us a proper pullback we could start searching for long opportunities. Target for the move is 1465- bottom of the flat bottom triangle and resistance and if it breaks 1490. Longs are invalidated below 1252. {image}
January 28th analysis.
  • #20,809
  • Feb 3, 2015 8:05am Feb 3, 2015 8:05am
Quoting T@rantula
{quote} EURUSD intraday uptrend + http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2015/0...-a-quick-move/ Also adding recent comments about Greek debt. Still it was meant to go higher according to technical analysis. {quote} January 28th analysis.
Nice work... I missed that one. Do you think its going to consolidate at those levels or will the USD strengthen? Very sharp change.

Was happy with my Gold fire sale trade just earlier
  • #20,810
  • Feb 3, 2015 10:43am Feb 3, 2015 10:43am
Quoting T@rantula
AUDUSD dropped heavily after RBA decided to cut rates by 0.25 %. 7625 is the daily low and there is a possibility of a second retest where the break of 7625 would aim for 7600. 7720-30 is POC where we see a nice confluence of previous low, 50.0 fib and L5 which acts as a resistance. This spot is a good place to short it towards 7625-00. We can also see a descending trendline which has confirmed the downtrend after the rate cut. {image}
what would the SL be for this setup ?
  • #20,811
  • Feb 3, 2015 12:36pm Feb 3, 2015 12:36pm
Quoting EternalNewB
{quote} what would the SL be for this setup ?
30 pips initially ( 7752 ). My SL got hit. AUDUSD has erased all rate cut losses.
  • #20,812
  • Feb 3, 2015 12:39pm Feb 3, 2015 12:39pm
Quoting PariCovek
{quote} Nice work... I missed that one. Do you think its going to consolidate at those levels or will the USD strengthen? Very sharp change. Was happy with my Gold fire sale trade just earlier
Thanks! This what was happening now is so called stop grabbing. Price goes through all weaker stops collecting it. Each close of the sell ( manually or through stop losses ) is an auto buy into the market. That shouldn't afraid intraday traders as stops are usually 30-35 pips + spreads with 0.5 % -1 % proper risk . Now all that has its meaning unless traders trade without a proper risk management which is of utmost importance.
  • #20,813
  • Feb 3, 2015 6:29pm Feb 3, 2015 6:29pm
Quoting bolehbah69
EU is currently moved back to daily open. {image} On daily chart it still showing a bearish trend, i would like to see head & shoulder forming on 4H chart and testing the previous 1.113x area if daily closed below 1.1254x. {image}
after the structure changed today, if daily closed above1.155xx the previous support zone and making a higher low, i will no longer seeing this as bearish, otherwise im still with the selling forces.. caution with this pair, NFP is on coming Friday.
  • #20,814
  • Feb 4, 2015 2:32am Feb 4, 2015 2:32am
GBPJPY has broken through an inner trend line and we can spot a nice confluence at 177.40-50. As POC zone we see 38.2 fib, DPP,L3 and inner trend line.The zone should give us potential longs towards 179.05. If 179.05 is broken 179.40 and 179.90 is the next.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-02-04_9-19-11.jpg Size: 187 KB
  • #20,815
  • Feb 4, 2015 2:48am Feb 4, 2015 2:48am
Quoting T@rantula
{quote} 30 pips initially ( 7752 ). My SL got hit. AUDUSD has erased all rate cut losses.
i think AUD pair has rallied due to the strength in commodities. No other logic behind it.
  • #20,816
  • Feb 4, 2015 4:38am Feb 4, 2015 4:38am
AUD might be trading between 0.7500-0.7600 by next week.. i might be wrong, PBOC just cut its rates... I am loading my shorts
i am feeling a pump on the aud.. am waiting for the dump.. but am also cautious, price is still unnatural for me
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #20,817
  • Feb 4, 2015 4:52am Feb 4, 2015 4:52am
Quoting RelaxRay
AUD might be trading between 0.7500-0.7600 by next week.. i might be wrong, PBOC just cut its rates... I am loading my shorts i am feeling a pump on the aud.. am waiting for the dump.. but am also cautious, price is still unnatural for me
Interesting is it a signal they are slowing down, as their currency is pegged to US and wouldn't have been a reaction to the currency wars of other floating exchanges. Could this be seen as booster though to AUD and commodities medium term?

I agree - Psychologically, AUD seems most at home around 7500 in this environment.

Btw.. Gold spiked north USD8/oz on announcement.

I am very bearish on Iron Ore - China has oversupply of residential housing for the next 8 years, however, I don't expect a hard landing, more a soft landing
  • #20,818
  • Feb 4, 2015 4:53am Feb 4, 2015 4:53am
Hi T,
EU possible M patern on H1?
  • #20,819
  • Feb 4, 2015 5:19am Feb 4, 2015 5:19am
Quoting T@rantula
GBPJPY has broken through an inner trend line and we can spot a nice confluence at 177.40-50. As POC zone we see 38.2 fib, DPP,L3 and inner trend line.The zone should give us potential longs towards 179.05. If 179.05 is broken 179.40 and 179.90 is the next. {image}
some times y get a little confuse on this you are 95% acurate profissional . i´m beginer traing to understend this whit your help .
i will sit on hands till a have a break of this descending triangle
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp usd.png Size: 76 KB
Scalping
  • #20,820
  • Feb 4, 2015 5:21am Feb 4, 2015 5:21am
Quoting Mihai10
Hi T, EU possible M patern on H1?
i think we might see another long trade around 1400-10 placing stops around 1355
5 traders viewing now