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  • #20,741
  • Jan 29, 2015 4:27am Jan 29, 2015 4:27am
Quoting PariCovek
Copper price down 2.5%. Gold price down 0.6%. AUD getting slaughtered by USD. Gold has more bearing, but whenever copper is sold down heavily the AUD follows (despite it only being 3% of Aust exports). Over-reaction,
What do u think about possible rate cut? As trimmed mean went up, it looks unlikely. And yes copper is correlated to AUD.
  • #20,742
  • Jan 29, 2015 4:38am Jan 29, 2015 4:38am
Quoting T@rantula
{quote} What do u think about possible rate cut? As trimmed mean went up, it looks unlikely. And yes copper is correlated to AUD.
I sit in the camp of no rate cut. I could be wrong, but the last couple of rate cuts were not fed through in full by the Banks to the customers/borrowers. RBA is aware of that being a possibility again.

There is no public noise about interest rates being too high, so I don't believe there is pressure on the RBA to cut rates, despite bank economists looking for the cut. The housing bubble is also known to the RBA.

Pure fundamentals of the commodities prices are driving the AUD lower without any need for rate cut at the moment.

Bond markets have 50bps of a rate cut priced in, so that is worst case.

RBA has announced a target to get 7500.

I think they may sit on the fence this month, so I plan to sit ready for that announcement and take a long position that day.
  • #20,743
  • Jan 29, 2015 4:53am Jan 29, 2015 4:53am
Quoting T@rantula
{quote} Hmm, i dont know. Not sure about which horizontal line? S/R or?
yes
Trend Is Friend
  • #20,744
  • Jan 29, 2015 4:56am Jan 29, 2015 4:56am
OK fellow traders - this is improved camarilla indicator. I have received this indicator from a friend who respects my work and who made it specially for me. Thanks to Milivoje from Croatia!

I will share the indicator for you, this is yet another contribution to our beloved FF and all traders who are contributing to our growing family here on Spider's Den.

Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 Pivot2.ex4   37 KB | 614 downloads
  • #20,745
  • Jan 29, 2015 4:58am Jan 29, 2015 4:58am
Quoting PariCovek
{quote} I sit in the camp of no rate cut. I could be wrong, but the last couple of rate cuts were not fed through in full by the Banks to the customers/borrowers. RBA is aware of that being a possibility again. There is no public noise about interest rates being too high, so I don't believe there is pressure on the RBA to cut rates, despite bank economists looking for the cut. The housing bubble is also known to the RBA. Pure fundamentals of the commodities prices are driving the AUD lower without any need for rate cut at the moment. Bond markets...

I concur. Nothing to be gained by lowering rates when other factors are doing the job so nicely. There may be an opportunity on Tuesday for a bit o a bounce, but longer term would expect the same direction for a bit yet, that being the year probably. I think .72's are in the picture as part of the larger move.
  • #20,746
  • Jan 29, 2015 5:08am Jan 29, 2015 5:08am
Quoting T@rantula
OK fellow traders - this is improved camarilla indicator. I have received this indicator from a friend who respects my work and who made it specially for me. Thanks to Milivoje from Croatia! I will share the indicator for you, this is yet another contribution to our beloved FF and all traders who are contributing to our growing family here on Spider's Den. {file}
Much obliged, thanks (once more)
  • #20,747
  • Jan 29, 2015 5:12am Jan 29, 2015 5:12am
Quoting PariCovek
{quote} I sit in the camp of no rate cut. I could be wrong, but the last couple of rate cuts were not fed through in full by the Banks to the customers/borrowers. RBA is aware of that being a possibility again. There is no public noise about interest rates being too high, so I don't believe there is pressure on the RBA to cut rates, despite bank economists looking for the cut. The housing bubble is also known to the RBA. Pure fundamentals of the commodities prices are driving the AUD lower without any need for rate cut at the moment. Bond markets...
I think the same! Thanks for insights!
  • #20,748
  • Jan 29, 2015 7:07am Jan 29, 2015 7:07am
Quoting T@rantula
NZDUSD has confirmed the downtrend on dovish RBNZ statement and we can see that there is a huge drop in pair. POC1 stands around 7350 and
Where do you see the kiwi bottoming out in the short/mid term? I'm long since .7274 and this looks like in the consolidation phase for now.
Lost....
  • #20,749
  • Jan 29, 2015 7:12am Jan 29, 2015 7:12am
Quoting T@rantula
OK fellow traders - this is improved camarilla indicator. I have received this indicator from a friend who respects my work and who made it specially for me. Thanks to Milivoje from Croatia! I will share the indicator for you, this is yet another contribution to our beloved FF and all traders who are contributing to our growing family here on Spider's Den. {file}
works fine thanks for sharing ...
very nice and good work ; )
Scalping
  • #20,750
  • Jan 29, 2015 7:12am Jan 29, 2015 7:12am
Quoting gespiri
{quote} Where do you see the kiwi bottoming out in the short/mid term? I'm long since .7274 and this looks like in the consolidation phase for now.
We might get NZDJPY long soon. Look at the 4h candle.
  • #20,751
  • Jan 29, 2015 7:15am Jan 29, 2015 7:15am
Quoting T@rantula
{quote} We might get NZDJPY long soon. Look at the 4h candle.
Thanks, T. I'm planning to ride this all the way to .7400 - .7420 at the most.

I really appreciate all your analyses (as well as the other contributors). Keep it up.
Lost....
  • #20,752
  • Jan 29, 2015 7:28am Jan 29, 2015 7:28am
EURUSD still rejecting. 1250 SL was never hit...Interesting. Its definitely due to big ATR + bullish daily patterns last 2 days.
  • #20,753
  • Jan 29, 2015 7:48am Jan 29, 2015 7:48am
hey t

​its been a wile since I've visited the den. (FF was still using the vouch system ) glad to see your still helping out the little guys. wile i don't use the camarilla system .the isight that the den gives you is priceless. good traders always find their way here. to all you new traders, take a second to look at T's first post on the forum (trading is like trapping) that one post helped me better understand the psychology of the market. there a far better traders than myself on the forum so i won't bore you with my analysis. but i feel i can offer help in the psycological aspect of trading.(as we all know is half of the trading battle ). So young traders feel free to post your trade plan wile you trade (entry: stop loss: take profit: and reason for taking the trade)(with T's permission of corse) if it goes wrong and you want to know why i can help and T thank you for your help in making me a better trader. next time your in miami give me a ring. got a cold one with your name on it


green pips to all,
Sy
  • #20,754
  • Jan 29, 2015 8:30am Jan 29, 2015 8:30am
Quoting T@rantula
NZDUSD has confirmed the downtrend on dovish RBNZ statement and we can see that there is a huge drop in pair. POC1 stands around 7350 and it is a zone where we could start searching for short opportunities towards 7270. In the case of greater pullback 7410-7430 zone is providing another opportunity to go short towards 7270. In the case 7270 breaks to the downside we can try to trade one of 3 possible breakout setups ( TH,BR,BPC) towards 7220. {image}
looks like 7270 is being taken right now ...
  • #20,755
  • Jan 29, 2015 8:49am Jan 29, 2015 8:49am
Quoting syliss592
hey t ​its been a wile since I've visited the den. (FF was still using the vouch system ) glad to see your still helping out the little guys. wile i don't use the camarilla system .the isight that the den gives you is priceless. good traders always find their way here. to all you new traders, take a second to look at T's first post on the forum (trading is like trapping) that one post helped me better understand the psychology of the market. there a far better traders than myself on the forum so i won't bore you with my analysis. but i feel...

Hi Syliss....fellow trader from south Florida...nice to see other trader kinda near me to toss ideas..I have been following the markets for over 7 years but just now getting series about trading...Camarillo Pivots really peaked my interest and am new to using them...(made a trade on demo in Eur/USD from the H3 line....watched Candle stick engulf prior bar and close above H3 after testing it numerous times... and went long to just under H4 line)...... heard great things in this room....
Let me know if it is alright to get ahold of you and by what means.

Look forward to learning the Cammarillo from T...Thx T for all you do to teach us.


C
  • #20,756
  • Jan 29, 2015 9:31am Jan 29, 2015 9:31am
EU is currently moved back to daily open.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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On daily chart it still showing a bearish trend, i would like to see head & shoulder forming on 4H chart and testing the previous 1.113x area if daily closed below 1.1254x.
Attached Image
  • #20,757
  • Jan 29, 2015 12:42pm Jan 29, 2015 12:42pm
Quoting T@rantula
NZDUSD has confirmed the downtrend on dovish RBNZ statement and we can see that there is a huge drop in pair. POC1 stands around 7350 and it is a zone where we could start searching for short opportunities towards 7270. In the case of greater pullback 7410-7430 zone is providing another opportunity to go short towards 7270. In the case 7270 breaks to the downside we can try to trade one of 3 possible breakout setups ( TH,BR,BPC) towards 7220. {image}
Nice 35 pips potential from breakout setup trade
  • #20,758
  • Jan 29, 2015 1:38pm Jan 29, 2015 1:38pm
Quoting T@rantula
{quote} Nice 35 pips potential from breakout setup trade
got taken out at BE, I could have done about 30 pips but got greedy I think...

at least no harm no foul I didn't lose any money
  • #20,759
  • Jan 29, 2015 5:46pm Jan 29, 2015 5:46pm
daily making lower lows 4h give this simple entry and a taket trying to see paterns it is a good one T ope e falls all way down
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usd jpy price move.png Size: 96 KB
Scalping
  • #20,760
  • Jan 30, 2015 12:52am Jan 30, 2015 12:52am
EURNZD is having a strong uptrend. As we can see previous running triangle has been broken and the price has continued with up momentum.A pullback to 5470 zone could give us fresh buying. 38.2, ex breakout buyers and L4 zone should stands for POC in uptrend.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-01-30_9-45-39.jpg Size: 237 KB
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