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  • #17,141
  • Feb 2, 2015 10:51pm Feb 2, 2015 10:51pm
finally break 175.70...lets hope for 100 to 200 pips fall
  • #17,142
  • Feb 2, 2015 10:51pm Feb 2, 2015 10:51pm
Quoting Vermillion
We briefly hit 175.50. I wonder what that means..
we broke 175.7x no significant bounce clear move down and likely hold below 200 MA on Daily we're going down. Maybe retest of 176.2x at the 200 MA then down. I see 174.8-7 as next support level. Watch for GBP news in few hours bad PMI and we could be testing lower relatively quickly, but i'm off to bed.
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  • #17,143
  • Feb 2, 2015 11:15pm Feb 2, 2015 11:15pm
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} Not at all; thanks for taking the time to explain. But in your own words, the next move down ONLY "is not allowed to move past the previous low." As long as it hits the exact same area and pops back up, doesn't that mean it's still valid? *not: I use waves only as general indicators, so I never learned the exact specifics
sorry to interrupt basically when ever break High or Low of any previous candle ..it wont go down or up directly the reason is lot of stop loss are keep there so it will try to attempt to clear those stop loss ..when the stop loss order clear and go down these stop loss orders will also join into the direction so that it iwll go fast into same direction...


in elliot wave theory even if its break by one pip consider as a break... even i am also not much using elliot wave..i used to use elliot wave as a primary indicater however after i learn ichimoku..i taken ichimoku as primary and Elliott wave as additional indicator..i wont use any other indicator..i started from Jan 2015 with ichimoku with EW and i am happy with my returns....still i have to learn both indicators deeply
  • #17,144
  • Edited 12:46am Feb 3, 2015 12:26am | Edited 12:46am
Just a possibility - Sterling Yen has long been known for its precision - it's ability to observe Trend Lines. I wrote earlier that I thought most of its support was exhausted. So what can it do to get around that problem? It makes its own. A strong bounce from 173 could get as far as meeting the blue TL at 180.6. The assumption would be that it couldn't pass, therefore forming a H&S. But the daily cloud is non existent at that point and price could get though.

If these things happen and that is its 'will'. At the least, a window, no matter how unlikely. Out of 173 it begins to take the form of the first stage of a possible reversal.

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Such a formation would explain the strange moves at 182.5 some 60 days ago. By extension, into 172 also 'fits' the pattern, but the lower it goes before bounce means its more likely to meet resistance again around 180.
  • #17,145
  • Edited 3:13am Feb 3, 2015 2:51am | Edited 3:13am
​But, really this is possibly about undoing the damage caused by boj et al. Many years ago a bunch of us agreed that gj could get to about 145. Some folks said that was too high. Above there we had easings and all sorts of stuff/shit. Maybe it's heading back. Undoing the damage. For what it's worth, 145 would be a full 61.8 retracement.

Interestingly, 175.5 was the last place that price tested after the BOJ hit it with another easing. That was its most recent low.

170.8/9 was when some dickhead at the fomc said something stupid.

These may well be good numbers.

Even if it were in a large retracement, it will do it in three moves. Determining the bottom of the first move is the issue here
  • #17,146
  • Feb 3, 2015 8:13pm Feb 3, 2015 8:13pm
Assuming the last leg of a triangle, it should start to fail around here (178.8 or so) Anything over 179.5 would attempt 180 again
  • #17,147
  • Feb 3, 2015 8:25pm Feb 3, 2015 8:25pm
Quoting Mpt
Assuming the last leg of a triangle, it should start to fail around here (178.8 or so) Anything over 179.5 would attempt 180 again
Fundamentally looking at USD and GBP / JPY failing soon to prepare for volatility events coming soon. And those events will validate any short term trends coming next week. A fail now gives better momentum both to the upside or down.
Luck shines on the positive.
  • #17,148
  • Feb 3, 2015 8:39pm Feb 3, 2015 8:39pm
Quoting YvetteTeo
{quote} Fundamentally looking at USD and GBP / JPY failing soon to prepare for volatility events coming soon. And those events will validate any short term trends coming next week. A fail now gives better momentum both to the upside or down.
Yes, that view would be consistent with the 'reversal ' idea. However, remain cautious of any significant break up from here and over 179.5, as it it could well run up to 180 or 180.6. In that event, it is entirely possible that in a fall back, 178.8 and 177x could provide support for a move north.
  • #17,149
  • Feb 3, 2015 9:13pm Feb 3, 2015 9:13pm
Quoting Mpt
{quote} Yes, that view would be consistent with the 'reversal ' idea. However, remain cautious of any significant break up from here and over 179.5, as it it could well run up to 180 or 180.6. In that event, it is entirely possible that in a fall back, 178.8 and 177x could provide support for a move north.
Yes, and that will be the long term 'trend' idea. Which I maintain upside bias especially for GBP. Hope it gives me a chance to add long on retracement lows.
Luck shines on the positive.
  • #17,150
  • Feb 4, 2015 12:57am Feb 4, 2015 12:57am
It must now break down quickly below 178.2 and preferably 177.3. Otherwise, the bearish/consolidation 'triangle' runs the risk of having got morphed into a bullish triangle. If it ever was a triangle.
  • #17,151
  • Feb 4, 2015 6:19pm Feb 4, 2015 6:19pm
​Based on the assumption that this was a triangle, we have possibly completed five legs with the run up to 179.2. Accordingly, gj should now be entering the final leg of the downtrend.
​
​I admit though that the whole move up to 179 looked a bit strange.
  • #17,152
  • Edited 6:44pm Feb 4, 2015 6:28pm | Edited 6:44pm
Quoting Mpt
​Based on the assumption that this was a triangle, we have possibly completed five legs with the run up to 179.2. Accordingly, gj should now be entering the final leg of the downtrend. ​ ​I admit though that the whole move up to 179 looked a bit strange.
Really? The initial triangle on the 4hour chart is, in my opinion, invalidated. I expected the movement to 179.30/20, followed by either 180.20/00 or a pulldown to retest the descending triangle trendline. After that would depend on dominant intraday trend.

I wouldn't hedge my bets on a short to be "guaranteed"; previously, the gbp/jpy tried to end the NY session with a support on 178.50, with an attempt to go higher, but it was then rejected by the surprise ECB rejection of the Greek bonds. The announcement came at the last 30 minutes of the NY session

Honestly, this FALL was unnatural, given that it was caused by a sudden event (and the fall took place during the limbo hour between markets, since NY ended when much of the drop happened).

I'd rather wait and see than to hedge bets right now.
  • #17,153
  • Feb 4, 2015 6:45pm Feb 4, 2015 6:45pm
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} Really? The initial triangle on the 4hour chart is, in my opinion, invalidated. I expected the movement to 179.30/20, followed by either 180.20/00 or a pulldown to retest the descending triangle trendline. After that would depend on dominant intraday trend. I wouldn't hedge my bets on a short to be "guaranteed"; previously, the gbp/jpy tried to end the NY session with a support on 178.50, with an attempt to go higher, but it was then rejected by the surprise ECB reection of the Greek bonds. The announcement came at the last 30 minutes of...
A move now under 177.3/4 area (weekly pivot) and under 176.9 (the 61.8 retracement) is now required to confirm. Yes, the Triangle. It remains open to interpretation as to its structure or authenticity. The thrust up from 175 (assuming the triangle theory) was either the penultimate e leg, or only the c leg in an even broader structure. We won't know until it hits the bottom again. Should it fall straight out, we know it's over. Should it bounce strongly again, it could run higher than 179.

For what its worth, we have assumed a triangle - and the final e leg of a triangle will usually break out of the 'pattern' to a new high. This happened, but it could still suggest an even broader consolidation. We wont know until it falls below those mentioned levels and, if so, what happens at the bottom. If it does fall back to bottom and bounces, but only achieves a 50/61.8 retrace, we know it's bearish. Multiple possibilities.
  • #17,154
  • Feb 4, 2015 6:56pm Feb 4, 2015 6:56pm
Quoting Mpt
{quote} A move now under 177.3/4 area (weekly pivot) and under 176.9 (the 61.8 retracement) is now required to confirm. Yes, the Triangle. It remains open to interpretation as to its structure or authenticity. The thrust up from 175 (assuming the triangle theory) was either the penultimate e leg, or only the c leg in an even broader structure. We won't know until it hits the bottom again. Should it fall straight out, we know it's over. Should it bounce strongly again, it could run higher than 179. For what its worth, we have assumed a triangle -...
Nicely put. A retest of 175.70 has a good chance of being "the one" for bulls/bears. You've summarized my current stance in one paragraph. Well done. It's nice knowing that someone knows exactly what I was saying (and more) without having to spend a lot of time explaining. It makes things so much easier to respond.

Unfortunately for both of us, the market right now is open season for guesses and false hopes-but no clear trend. I expect it'll take the latter half of Tokyo / start of London to get things going.
  • #17,155
  • Feb 4, 2015 7:01pm Feb 4, 2015 7:01pm
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} Nicely put. A retest of 175.70 has a good chance of being "the one" for bulls/bears. You've summarized my current stance in one paragraph. Well done. It's nice knowing that someone knows exactly what I was saying (and more) without having to spend a lot of time explaining. It makes things so much easier to respond. Unfortunately for both of us, the market right now is open season for guesses and false hopes-but no clear trend. I expect it'll take the latter half of Tokyo / start of London to get things going.
Ha, I've often been criticized for being verbose. I do find words, though, are easier than charts or graphics.
  • #17,156
  • Feb 4, 2015 7:05pm Feb 4, 2015 7:05pm
One final comment - if this is really the new down trend starting here, it will not muck around. It will be on its way, Asian session or not.
  • #17,157
  • Feb 4, 2015 7:13pm Feb 4, 2015 7:13pm
Quoting Mpt
{quote} . I do find words, though, are easier than charts or graphics.
Agreed 100%. I see so many traders filling their charts with all these lines, formations, and indicators (half of which I don't use or have never even heard of before). I find an overly complicated chart to be the worst thing to explain forex, not only for others but also yourself.

I mean, at least words can be understood, no matter how archaic or verbose the linguistics used, so long as you can look the words up on a dictonary. But charts? I keep having to ask what this indicator is, what those series of lines mean, how these indicators were formulated, and it goes on and on. Funny thing is, the best traders I see on FF keep a simple, organized chart when they post (if they post images at all). I wonder why.
  • #17,158
  • Feb 4, 2015 8:40pm Feb 4, 2015 8:40pm
It's trying very hard to not fall under 177.7 - and 'thinks' it's in a continuation (north) pattern
  • #17,159
  • Feb 4, 2015 8:52pm Feb 4, 2015 8:52pm
Quoting Mpt
It's trying very hard to not fall under 177.7 - and 'thinks' it's in a continuation (north) pattern
We need to retest 178.60/40 to see the bulls gaining a slight advantage over bears. The Greece bond news, however, has really dampened bullish movements. Without it, i would have anticipated a retest of upper 178s/179.00 by now. A shame really. We had a good potential set up for longs (followed by a downturn in preparation for Friday), or at least a retest of 179.20/00. But alas, ECB and Draghi could not hold their tongues in check for just one more day.

There is no form of linguistics in human civilization that can sufficiently nor eloquently express the fullest extent to which I despise the ECB today, but suffice it to say that the first words out of my mouth would begin as follows:

F*** you, ECB.
  • #17,160
  • Feb 4, 2015 9:23pm Feb 4, 2015 9:23pm
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} We need to retest 178.60/40 to see the bulls gaining a slight advantage over bears. The Greece bond news, however, has really dampened bullish movements. Without it, i would have anticipated a retest of upper 178s/179.00 by now. A shame really. We had a good potential set up for longs (followed by a downturn in preparation for Friday), or at least a retest of 179.20/00. But alas, ECB and Draghi could not hold their tongues in check for just one more day. There is no form of linguistics in human civilization that can sufficiently nor eloquently...
What? It's taken you this long to work out they're all a bunch of time wasters? But I admit, the Europeans do tend to 'shine'.
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