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  • #421
  • Jan 8, 2015 11:49am Jan 8, 2015 11:49am
  •  eggs
  • | Joined Nov 2011 | Status: Everybodys A Central Banker Here... | 819 Posts
Absolutely everything aside on the subject of your trade I just wanted to illustrate the accuracy FIB Extensions can have. The FIBO in the chart below is the same one posted from yesterday & is zoomed out to the furthest expansion I have of 423.6

I'll let you decide if the fact that it lies neatly at 109.36 the same price of the 1st breakout impulse candle on OCT 31st which took us to the most recent highs of 121.50 in a couple of months.

Again.. no predictions here I just happen to think it's pretty cool.
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  • #422
  • Jan 8, 2015 1:48pm Jan 8, 2015 1:48pm
Quoting eggs
Absolutely everything aside on the subject of your trade I just wanted to illustrate the accuracy FIB Extensions can have. The FIBO in the chart below is the same one posted from yesterday & is zoomed out to the furthest expansion I have of 423.6 I'll let you decide if the fact that it lies neatly at 109.36 the same price of the 1st breakout impulse candle on OCT 31st which took us to the most recent highs of 121.50 in a couple of months. Again.. no predictions here I just happen to think it's pretty cool. {image}
Its almost like magic isn't it? One has to ask if it is just naturally that way (ie. fibonacci is part of our genetic make up) or if it is a self fulfilling prophecy...or perhaps a little of both....however if I trade using one method and you trade using another method and we both look for the same level, I think that could be described as synergy...
  • #423
  • Jan 29, 2015 7:58am Jan 29, 2015 7:58am
Hello all...its been awhile since I posted...as I mentioned a couple of months ago, I had some personal issues to attend to. However I am back home again and will try to be more frequent with my updates.

So to put us up to date.
GBP/AUD: I am still holding three long positions and currently the aggregate (average entry) is positive over 800 pips. I have moved the stop on two of these positions to lock approximately 1.7x risk and have the third position as just break even. My intent is to hold the first to positions to limits that are set at 1.97877 and 2.0214 respectively. I will hold the 3rd position for as long as possible under the current conditions and will manage THAT trade on the weekly time frame.

GBP/USD: I have entered two short positions on retest of the current resistance. The aggregate is just about break even at present. So nothing spectacular to report for the moment.

USD/JPY: I have entered two long positions at the bottom of a current range that has been in place now for 7 days. I was previously short on this range but am anticipating a break higher. We'll see. Both of the current positions are positive at present, and as soon as price moves to the top of the current range I will move the stop in to break even.

That's it for now. I am also stalking a gold long but must be patient with this one as the retrace has only just started.
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  • #424
  • Jan 29, 2015 8:36am Jan 29, 2015 8:36am
Hello all,

Further on the gold trade I am currently stalking.

Gold has made a series of higher highs and higher lows over the past two months. A clear and obvious trend has developed on this time frame. Price is currently retracing and appears to be gathering selling strength for the moment. I have placed a wide area (shaded in blue) on the below chart to indicate the area where I think buyer might be interested in coming into the market. As it happens this area is also confluent with the major Fibonacci levels...ALL of them. So this is a pretty wide area indeed.

I will need to pay careful attention for signs of buying strength to enter with any precision on this. One of the first signs that this is happening will be a small range that forms on the daily chart. I will watch for this to occur and update when/if I see it. I suspect this may take another 1-2 weeks to show.
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  • #425
  • Jan 29, 2015 9:16pm Jan 29, 2015 9:16pm
Been snoopin' around and waiting for your posting G, simple yet powerfull. This is the right way to trade the way i see it.

Always a fan, regards
  • #426
  • Jan 30, 2015 7:00am Jan 30, 2015 7:00am
Quoting zebedeus
Been snoopin' around and waiting for your posting G, simple yet powerfull. This is the right way to trade the way i see it. Always a fan, regards
Thank you for your confidence and kind words Zeb. I hope you will find something of value in this thread. Please feel free to contribute as you see fit.
  • #427
  • Feb 1, 2015 10:51am Feb 1, 2015 10:51am
Hello all...I've been looking at the gold market over the week end and as I stated last month I am going to start trading this from a much larger time frame perspective. Mostly because I am thinking that the daily chart may just be a bit to "noisy" for my taste and the monthly and weekly charts seem to show the market flow more readily.

In so doing, I believe my outlook on this market has changed somewhat. The below screen shot shows a "triple screen" arrangement with the monthly, weekly and daily charts. Working from the "top-down":
Monthly Chart: A clear range has been in place for the last year and a half. A range with descending tops, and last October, broke and closed below the range. After two months of yet more volatile ranging, price finds itself closing back inside the monthly range. False break? I don't know for sure.
Weekly Chart: The weekly chart shows a more detailed view of the ranging that occurred below the break of the monthly range that finally broke higher and this week has stalled, producing a hanging man candle. This occurs at a critical area inside the monthly range where excess supply came in during September of 2014 and pushed prices down and outside the monthly range.
Daily Chart: The daily chart shows a more detailed view of what occurred during the formation of the weekly hanging man. Prices ranged for 6 days and broke lower on Thursday. This last friday traders took price higher to test the bottom of the break out and closed there.

Conclusions: This is one of those situations where a salient argument can be made for buying AND selling at the open of this week. From the buying side, as my last post on this showed, The daily chart appears to be making higher highs and higher lows producing a bullish trend. From the selling side, the monthly and weekly charts are showing a stall in price at a critical area where sellers came in last time.

I have decided to trade this short at the open for the following reasons:

  1. The monthly and weekly charts all seem to still show a bias toward selling and have not made a higher high (from the monthly point of view).
  2. Weekly prices show a bearish candle formation that has been shown to have a 60% success rate
  3. Daily chart (while currently showing higher highs and higher lows), is starting a retrace which should take prices down at least into the 1235 area.

Plan: I will enter a short at the open and allow price to move downward watching very closely for signs of a bullish reversal. If those signs appear I will stop and reverse into the developing bullish trend...if they do NOT appear I will be in good position to hold down through another break lower. Stop will be deep to allow for the monthly candles to play out.

This trade will not be for the faint of heart.

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  • #428
  • Feb 1, 2015 3:31pm Feb 1, 2015 3:31pm
Quoting gspajon
Conclusions: This is one of those situations where a salient argument can be made for buying AND selling at the open of this week.. This trade will not be for the faint of heart. {image}
It sounds as though there isn't a clear trade setup?
Maybe, I'm misinterpreting but if its not for the faint-hearted, it suggests you're kind of forcing a trade-setup and I thought your approach was about simple uncomplicated (obvious) trading.

Either way it will be interesting to see how this plays out.
  • #429
  • Feb 1, 2015 5:09pm Feb 1, 2015 5:09pm
Quoting livindaylite
{quote} It sounds as though there isn't a clear trade setup? Maybe, I'm misinterpreting but if its not for the faint-hearted, it suggests you're kind of forcing a trade-setup and I thought your approach was about simple uncomplicated (obvious) trading. Either way it will be interesting to see how this plays out.
You are absolutely right about that...it is new for me to be out on such long time frames...from the monthly perspective it does seem clear and/or "obvious", but entering a trade with a 1,600 pip stop is un-nerving for me as is adding in if prices rise another 500 pips or so.

What seems more clear to me right now is that the daily chart will retrace and from there I will manage the trade based on what I see forming...just trying to take a more "global" view and be patient.
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  • #430
  • Feb 1, 2015 9:13pm Feb 1, 2015 9:13pm
Last update before I go to bed;
USD/JPY: Luck was with me today even though this market gapped below the current range, it missed my stop by only 5 pips. With the current run up I was able to add to longs at a lower point and close out the biggest loser with a couple of pips profit. So, NOW I can move my stop up to break even on the aggregate position here and not worry too much if price breaks lower overnight.

The gap below the range has me concerned that price still has some downward movement to go before resuming the bullish trend. Should that occur I will look for the next opportunity as it time permits.
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  • #431
  • Feb 2, 2015 2:50pm Feb 2, 2015 2:50pm
Update on USD/JPY; As I suspected last evening. I was stopped out on my longs at break even. It looks like price will just barely be able to close back inside the current range today.

I have reversed my position to shorts on this. The lower entry was an error in "button pushing"...I HATE THAT.

But I have two more sell limit orders set and one looks like it may trigger in a short while. (in fact as I write I see it did trigger). The fact that price couldn't push up to the top of the range last night (I think) is a clue of more selling pressure to come.

So we are short AGAIN! Patience...patience...patience...I need much
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  • #432
  • Feb 2, 2015 2:53pm Feb 2, 2015 2:53pm
update on GBP/USD; Price has been "flirting" with breaking lower, but seems rather buoyant at this bottom. I have moved my stop on this short to the top of today's trading. This brings the aggregate to about break even. This may to be too aggressive a stop however, I think it is always a good policy to eliminate risk as soon as feasible.
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  • #433
  • Feb 2, 2015 9:42pm Feb 2, 2015 9:42pm
Update on GBP/AUD:
Getting a nice push higher now during an Aussie news announcement (RBA just dropped rates by a 1/4%). I have moved the stop up on the upper two positions to lock in 2:1 on the aggregate entry.
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  • #434
  • Feb 3, 2015 7:28am Feb 3, 2015 7:28am
Update GBP/AUD:
Decided to take profit on the first position here at this level. I still have two other positions on this trade that I intend to hold. If luck is with me, I will take profit on the 2nd position as (if) price breaks above this "trend resistance" line. The 3rd position I will hold through the next retrace.
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  • #435
  • Feb 3, 2015 7:33am Feb 3, 2015 7:33am
update on GBP/USD:
I was stopped out of my aggregate position for a small gain of 74 pips. Look like we may get a reversal soon...who knows?
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  • #436
  • Feb 3, 2015 4:17pm Feb 3, 2015 4:17pm
New Trade Opportunities:

Both of these trade opportunities are counter trend trades. To take these trades one would need to thing (as I do) along the lines that the dollar strength has been over done and it is now time for a retrace.

EUR/USD: Clearly a very long downward move has been in place for several months with out even a whisper of a significant pull back. In my experience the longer this happens the more "significant" the pull back is. Price has come off its lows and ranged for 5 days. Now price broke above the range high and closed.

GBP/USD: A very similar story except that the bottom has been more volatile (as is typical for this market). A more defined target area is visible in the 1.55 area.

A look at the monthly charts on both of these pairs shows signficant bottoming areas which (I expect) will break the next time prices move down into this area, but I anticipate on both of these that some form a retrace is in the works.

I have place pending buy orders as seen on these charts and we'll see if they get triggered.
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  • #437
  • Feb 3, 2015 4:52pm Feb 3, 2015 4:52pm
Quoting gspajon
New Trade Opportunities: Both of these trade opportunities are counter trend trades. To take these trades one would need to thing (as I do) along the lines that the dollar strength has been over done and it is now time for a retrace. EUR/USD: Clearly a very long downward move has been in place for several months with out even a whisper of a significant pull back. In my experience the longer this happens the more "significant" the pull back is. Price has come off its lows and ranged for 5 days. Now price broke above the range high and closed. GBP/USD:...

Looks nice theory. Indeed, looking for pull-back too. However I'm still unable to lock down a nice RRR trajectory with SL & Targets on this scenario. I saw new low on price, and new low on MACD. I would have been happy to rush into with you if I could see at least a bit more of divergence. That's just my 2 cents and I could be completely wrong. But I like the idea. But I'm not in yet, too much uncertainty for me at this stage and not enough evidence for a very good retrace. But please share if you collect more evidences.

Cheers and good luck
  • #438
  • Feb 3, 2015 5:36pm Feb 3, 2015 5:36pm
Quoting Delta1One
{quote} Looks nice theory. Indeed, looking for pull-back too. However I'm still unable to lock down a nice RRR trajectory with SL & Targets on this scenario. I saw new low on price, and new low on MACD. I would have been happy to rush into with you if I could see at least a bit more of divergence. That's just my 2 cents and I could be completely wrong. But I like the idea. But I'm not in yet, too much uncertainty for me at this stage and not enough evidence for a very good retrace. But please share if you collect more evidences. Cheers and good...
Thanks Delta1One. I'm not in yet either...I would need these trade to trigger their longs...it may be that they just skyrocket and don't give me a chance to participate. If that happens, I will be stalking the short side again...

One is forced to ask who is still willing to sell at these lows.
  • #439
  • Edited 10:57am Feb 4, 2015 10:45am | Edited 10:57am
Update on GBP/AUD:
I have moved the stop up on the 2nd position to just below today's low. The intraday charts look like they are "stair-stepping" their way up and when that starts to happen I usually suspect a run downward into a retrace area. Further, The intraday charts are showing a stall in price at the highs seen here...I guess all the buyers are in

This stop protects approximately 700(+/-) pips
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  • #440
  • Feb 4, 2015 3:23pm Feb 4, 2015 3:23pm
EUR/USD:
My buy limit order was just filled a few minute ago. So we are off to the races. I have placed a second buy order at the lower portion of this range. Hopefully the buyers will come in again and push prices higher.
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