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AUD/USD

  • #88,821
  • Feb 2, 2015 11:34pm Feb 2, 2015 11:34pm
Quoting Greeny
{quote} Yep, I think that was always the direction regardless of the rate decision...the cut is just going to make things worse for those of us living here in Oz. Poor economics, but we've got used to that from this RBA Board. I think mid .72s are probably where it's headed longer term.
Why does rate cut make things worse for those of us living here? It's cheaper to borrow money - benefits all with a mortgage or looking to start / run a business. It makes things more expensive to import, giving incentive to make locally - all designed to boost the economy. Understandably not so great if you are only renting to be in housing lead recovery....
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #88,822
  • Feb 2, 2015 11:35pm Feb 2, 2015 11:35pm
Quoting belgeran
hmmss.. i took a long at 0.76643... not a good idea it seems...
Hmm, oops...I hope you had a reciprocating short on to cover that one, always a good idea around these announcements.
  • #88,823
  • Feb 2, 2015 11:37pm Feb 2, 2015 11:37pm
Quoting Greeny
{quote} The cut is just going to make things worse for those of us living here in Oz. Poor economics, but we've got used to that from this RBA Board.
What did you expect with the complete and utter clowns elected to lead us? One thinks we'll live to 150, the other, only God knows what he thinks and the stooge in the RBA just collapsed our currency as fast as some third world banana republic. Heaven forbid you were trying to close some deal with the AUD's strength in mind. Along comes this walking cadaver and lowers interest rates to thwart your best laid plans.
  • #88,824
  • Feb 2, 2015 11:42pm Feb 2, 2015 11:42pm
lowers interest rates to thwart your best laid plans.[/quote]

.25 seems mostly symbolic
Learn THEN Unlearn
  • #88,825
  • Feb 2, 2015 11:44pm Feb 2, 2015 11:44pm
Quoting dab
{quote} Why does rate cut make things worse for those of us living here? It's cheaper to borrow money - benefits all with a mortgage or looking to start / run a business. It makes things more expensive to import, giving incentive to make locally - all designed to boost the economy. Understandably not so great if you are only renting to be in housing lead recovery....
Don't listen to the left leaning media.It feeds inflation, makes things more expensive, fuels a housing bubble and encourages unsustainable debt that at some stage has to be unwound. Not to mention that those who do happen to have some cash just get belted and have to try to find somewhere to make it work better.
Things will never be made locally as labour and infrastructure costs are to high, we need to accept we are a small economy dependent on imports and exporting raw material/food. As for those wanting to start with a mortgage, nope, it just pushes housing prices up, so any benefit there is wiped out, in the end you just borrow more to pay for the same property you could have had yesterday for less. There is no such thing as a housing lead recovery, that is an ideal recent media commentators have brought in. Housing is a lagging indicator, can only increase on the back of people having more income wanting to spend on housing.
Some may disagree with me, time will tell, but history has shown this to be the way every time. The RBA is so worried about deflation they are trying to spur controlled inflation to avoid it, has always ended in tears before. I'd love to see a change at the RBA, bring in some new thinking.
  • #88,826
  • Feb 2, 2015 11:46pm Feb 2, 2015 11:46pm
Quoting hrwn47
{quote} I'll add to short at 0.7730 if it get there
Well that was a good day for you...

$29,898.40 for 152.0 pips

  • #88,827
  • Feb 2, 2015 11:57pm Feb 2, 2015 11:57pm
Quoting Greeny
{quote} Hmm, oops...I hope you had a reciprocating short on to cover that one, always a good idea around these announcements.
ahh.. the position is only taken after the initial downswing.. thought it might bounce to around 800s.. for a 15pip scalp.... 500s seem to be holding so far.. although as more time passes, i will have to assume downswing is more likely to happen and i'll be stop out at SL.

all good, will just watch and see.
  • #88,828
  • Feb 3, 2015 12:00am Feb 3, 2015 12:00am
Quoting Macdon
{quote} What did you expect with the complete and utter clowns elected to lead us? One thinks we'll live to 150, the other, only God knows what he thinks and the stooge in the RBA just collapsed our currency as fast as some third world banana republic. Heaven forbid you were trying to close some deal with the AUD's strength in mind. Along comes this walking cadaver and lowers interest rates to thwart your best laid plans.
The elected leaders are a different issue, but we are between a rock and a hard place there. There are some decent options though, so I wish the media and do-gooders would get out of the way and let the process happen rather than trying to force it on their terms.
As far as our esteemed RBA goes though, you are spot on, they are without doubt the most hapless board we have ever had...being led from the front. He just feels compelled to respond to the public all the time, that's not his job and results in these sorts of decisions. Oh well, we've been through it before and we'll get it again, I just hope he doesn't back it up again soon!

Haha,"Banana Republic" it seems we heard that a number of years ago ( showing my age now) , and yet they still don't learn.
  • #88,829
  • Feb 3, 2015 12:04am Feb 3, 2015 12:04am
Quoting HighFivve
lowers interest rates to thwart your best laid plans.
.25 seems mostly symbolic [/quote]
You are right .25 isn't going to make a world of difference (to the currency), the move was on anyway so why bother. Where it makes a difference is in the economy where things react entirely differently. Big picture...which seems lost on this bunch at the moment.
  • #88,830
  • Feb 3, 2015 12:25am Feb 3, 2015 12:25am
From a practical perspective, may I know what is the effect on AUD for China cutting their rate? Thanks
  • #88,831
  • Feb 3, 2015 12:26am Feb 3, 2015 12:26am
Quoting diegosilva
From a practical perspective, may I know what is the effect on AUD for China cutting their rate? Thanks
In reality nothing, as it is pegged to USD. It is only if it has the flow on effect to the economy. If it stimulates, good for aud, if not, wasted. However, we know that stimulus from rate cuts is not effective....Japan for two decades now, Europe, USA...not the answer.
  • #88,832
  • Feb 3, 2015 12:29am Feb 3, 2015 12:29am
Quoting Greeny
{quote} In reality nothing, as it is pegged to USD. It is only if it has the flow on effect to the economy. If it stimulates, good for aud, if not, wasted. However, we know that stimulus from rate cuts is not effective....Japan for two decades now, Europe, USA...not the answer.
Well we noticed that in November AUD boomed for almost 1% (~0.87) for China RRR cuts. Some rumours said that PBOC is contemplating for another rate cut this month.
  • #88,833
  • Feb 3, 2015 1:49am Feb 3, 2015 1:49am
Quoting RBlackburn
{quote} Well that was a good day for you... $29,898.40 for 152.0 pips
O o p s

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  • #88,834
  • Feb 3, 2015 1:49am Feb 3, 2015 1:49am
Quoting FXSayWhat
{quote} This bearish flag would takes us all the way down to target zone 0.7580-0.7600 from its current 38.2% level. If AUD decide to cut rate in 2 hours, AUDUSD would mostly likely have a lag down. RBA also pointed out they wanted the AUDUSD to be at the 0.7500 and 0.7600 level which is also in line with this technical analysis. {image} Dano12, too bad you spotted the pattern, but failed to point out the target zone properly. Thanks for sharing tho.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...0&d=1422551119

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...36#post8033036
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  • #88,835
  • Feb 3, 2015 2:27am Feb 3, 2015 2:27am
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  • #88,836
  • Feb 3, 2015 2:35am Feb 3, 2015 2:35am
Quoting diegosilva
{quote} Well we noticed that in November AUD boomed for almost 1% (~0.87) for China RRR cuts. Some rumours said that PBOC is contemplating for another rate cut this month.
But look where it has ended up. People involved with AUD are over sensitive to Chinese data and announcements, it usually returns to it's trend though. If PBOC cuts AND it does stimulate their economy, which would be debatable, you may see some short term action on the AUD, but the fotces all around are driving it down. Stronger USD, commodities, local and global economy and narrow sighted RBA. There were more factors than Chinese rates at play then too.
  • #88,837
  • Feb 3, 2015 2:41am Feb 3, 2015 2:41am
I am keep selling CNY and buying AUD recent weeks, price under 0.78 to me is like free lunch
  • #88,838
  • Feb 3, 2015 2:43am Feb 3, 2015 2:43am
Quoting zew
I am keep selling CNY and buying AUD recent weeks, price under 0.78 to me is like free lunch
What spread you got with CNY

You mean USDCNY or USDCNH or AUDCNY
  • #88,839
  • Feb 3, 2015 2:56am Feb 3, 2015 2:56am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} What spread you got with CNY You mean USDCNY or USDCNH or AUDCNY
Actually, I'm selling CNY to buy USD(real money without leverage), then buy AUDUSD(with leverage). because my platform doesn't have AUDCNY.
  • #88,840
  • Feb 3, 2015 4:02am Feb 3, 2015 4:02am
Thanks AUD for Rate 2.25% +145 pips
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