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Secret footprint in the markets

  • #101
  • Jan 14, 2015 5:34pm Jan 14, 2015 5:34pm
This is what I like about looking at the internals or intra day and building a daily indicator around it. Whilst the Aussie and Euro are basically tracking sideways ( on a daily TF) it still shows on the Capflow that net buying is happening every day hence swinging my indicator around from red to blue. It's still not there yet on the 12 day average, the six day is very much blue (take buy triggers) though. I have to wait for the 12 day one to turn, as evidenced by my losing pre-emptive trade in the Kiwi and Aussie above.

It's like the inta-day activity of Aussie and Euro is saying, "yes I may appear directionless, but actually my activity is very subtly buying and soon this buying pressure will manifest in higher prices" Wishful thinking maybe... we'll see.
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  • #102
  • Jan 14, 2015 5:57pm Jan 14, 2015 5:57pm
i got my secret decoder ring. it says find instruments that have a hurst exponent above .5 so that i can predict the direction of the market easier. random walk down main street.
  • #103
  • Feb 2, 2015 8:00pm Feb 2, 2015 8:00pm
My footprint indicator is telling me that ONE more day of Selling in USD/JPY in the New York session only, will turn it to a sell.
The Box still blue but if the above conditions are met, new red box will be present...

I am placing pre-emptive sell stops to enter shorts below the market at 116.50 and adding on at 115.00.
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  • #104
  • Feb 2, 2015 11:38pm Feb 2, 2015 11:38pm
I have been consistently loosing at forex trading for 7years and counting, so I guess you can call me an expert at failing

My take on the "Secret footprint" you are searching for is this.

1. Almost all indicators work perfect. The problem comes from each traders interpretation and expectations [GREED/FEAR], your attempt to find the "Secret footprint" is merely an attempt to quantify the GREED and FEAR of all traders (an impossible task).

2. Why do I say all indicators work? Because if you had a billion dollars and traded 0.01 lots only, would you blow the account? Yes? Okay make it 100 billion. I guess not. Its an exaggeration but it properly reflects capitalization and profit. An indicator gives a signal, some take at 2pips others at 200pips others at a loss of -20 pips and in between, neither is perfect/wrong as no one can say for sure what happens after a trade is taken [which is the really important part] the traders greed and fear decides. Which brings us to Developing a Trading System.

3. Trading Systems are incomplete without proper money management, I dare say, traders need to spend more time developing a sound money management strategy than the more popular [pattern finding buy/sell system]. Now in developing a system, I also notice most people make a set of RIGID rules, that cripples the system before its even put to use. In developing a system no part should be rigid (including MM). Your system should accommodate varied market behaviors, why?, because market behavior changes. If you don't go with the flow you break (either your account breaks or your psyche breaks), leaving you on the wrong end of our two greatest enemies & friends (dear Greed and Fear).

So to conclude the "Secret footprint" is no secret at all, candle sticks, chart patterns, M.A the indicator you built, all show when the market is about to move in a certain direction, most are right 51-99% of the time. The real problem is how to use it.

Just like a car, bicycle, plane, helicopter, boat, motorcycle and even your legs will take you from point A to point B, BUT you have to know how to use it.

For those looking for a good trading system I suggest the Sonic R System, its both rigid and flexible, my opinion is when you loose using Sonic R you know its your fault.
  • #105
  • Feb 3, 2015 4:05pm Feb 3, 2015 4:05pm
Capflow has changed to Sell for Gold. Red box applied. USD/JPY still hasn't turned but needs a good up day to stop it from turning Red (sell).
Aussie and Kiwi are doing a good job of changing colour but not there yet.
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Click to Enlarge Name: Capflow Feb 4th.JPG Size: 346 KB
  • #106
  • Feb 4, 2015 3:32pm Feb 4, 2015 3:32pm
Finally, Yen change given. Sell USD/JPY, Red box in place. We'll see....
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  • #107
  • Feb 5, 2015 1:17pm Feb 5, 2015 1:17pm
Change now in EUR/USD and GBP/USD to blue (Buy).

AUD/USD and NZD/USD only one day or two from changing also but remain red for now.

Gold and USD/JPY red (Sell mode)

I am playing the USD/JPY only with sell stop entries below the market because I just don't enter a momentum trade in the middle of such a strong range, preferring to take the break out in the direction of Capflow (Red)

EUR/USD on the other hand is fine to "go with". I'll run my projected ranges next Monday and place orders on the dip that dictates. Hopefully by then Aussie and Kiwi will have changed to Buy as well...
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  • #108
  • Feb 6, 2015 1:52pm Feb 6, 2015 1:52pm
One such footprint: Trade the stop loss of others (or where you would have placed yours)
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  • #109
  • Edited 11:01am Feb 7, 2015 1:06am | Edited 11:01am
Quoting Hyperion
Maybe there is hidden information stored in certain bars that broadcast it's direction. I wonder if there are only certain bars that are the actual footprint of the market and everything else in between should be ignored. Maybe it's a naive question. Any Autistics out there want to help find them? (no offence intended, most good traders I know are a bit OCD and people with Autism see movement and recognise patterns twice as quickly as others) What might these tell tail signs look like? I realise most candlesticks people or price action people think...
Ok, yeah. Actually i dont have autism or asberger or OCD. Some say im smart, some people think im strange, maybe im just fucked in the head. But anyway:

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If this is as good as it seems, and im still looking for evidence that its NOT so good, i will probably be shot in the head for discovering it. But i dont give a fuck any more, ive had it all, i think i can handle a little discrete paranoia/existent or non existent bullet to the head.

Way i see it, the millions is just lying around waiting for the person to trade/make an EA out of this. Until i find evidence to the controary.

Anyway, i couldnt sell this information. The way it looks anybody who understands it and have a few million would pay up a million $ to get it. But noone would believe me if i called them and said: "Hey assholes, i have info thats worth at least a million, so gimme a friggin million and i will send you one .jpg picture thats going to explain it all if you have half a brain." Nobody would believe it. I dont have "The connections". I was born in a working class family here in Sweden, im not a friggin insider or anything. I do like a good challenge for the brain though, and this is what i have come up with.

I want to be sort of humble about it: Sure i could be wrong. But the more i look at the charts, the more i see it works. The money management and that stuff is easy peasy. Probably it would take a month to code for someone who arent stupid. A week or so to work out good MM. Two weeks to backtest and make optimal settings. Still its a 10-30.000 $ job to do. Add to that EXTREME secure information structure. I figure it doesnt matter the info is here, it will drown in the rest of the ABSOLUTE shit info of the internet and people are generally to stupid and sheep like to notice or care.
My signature is: "Classified".
  • #110
  • Feb 7, 2015 6:21am Feb 7, 2015 6:21am
Agree with Tunera. No offense, it happens to all of us but your brain is completely conditioned in a wrong way. Furthermore the only prove your charts show is wishful thinking; some of your setups are not valid unless your consider a 6:1 risk reward a good bet, and you did not point out a few trades that broke previous 4h after a down move by a few pips..
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  • #111
  • Feb 7, 2015 6:38am Feb 7, 2015 6:38am
Quoting HiddenGap
While I would not call them hidden, nor would I say everything else can be ignored, I believe Relative Aggression Bars are the type of thing you are looking for. Aggression moves the market. By definition, a transaction can only take place when there is a buyer and a seller. Therefore, when you hear things like "the market went down because there were more sellers than buyers", that information is incorrect. The market went down, because the sellers were more enthusiastic, or aggressive, than the buyers. Take a look at the chart below. I'll point...



Relative Aggression Bars : how do you tell if its a 3 or 2 or 1?
I would be safe in saying a 3 is superior to a 2 or 1?
are you still trading this system?

Thank you
  • #112
  • Edited 10:59am Feb 7, 2015 10:37am | Edited 10:59am
Quoting Robertk
Agree with Tunera. No offense, it happens to all of us but your brain is completely conditioned in a wrong way. Furthermore the only prove your charts show is wishful thinking; some of your setups are not valid unless your consider a 6:1 risk reward a good bet, and you did not point out a few trades that broke previous 4h after a down move by a few pips.. {image}
Oh yeah i saw i missed a few. It went pretty good anyway i think. Did you read the moneymanagement i suggested? 100 pip is maximum 0.5% of the account. Or maybe 0.3% of the account could be 100 pip. I dunno.

I will consider any risk as long as it works. I dont see ANY loss on that chart, so its a 0 risk thing. I could consider a 20:1 risk if a had good data to suggest its worth it. As long as it plays this way of course. Not saying it will, but on the other hand, im not saying this is the ONLY smart thing to put some money on. Preferably i would want to have eyes on price 24/7 for this. But that would of course take a multi person, multi million venture over a few years say... 4. But also, multiple pairs is possible.

Well it doesnt matter. Im not here go argue anything. I dont give a damn. Doesnt matter. Go do what ever you want and ignore this post.
My signature is: "Classified".
  • #113
  • Feb 7, 2015 5:23pm Feb 7, 2015 5:23pm
Quoting yaed
{quote} Ohd a few. It went pretty good anyway i think. Did you read the moneymanagement i suggested? 100 pip is maximum 0.5% of the account. Or maybe 0.3% of the account could be 100 pip. I dunno. I will consider any risk as long as it works. I dont see ANY loss on that chart, so its a 0 risk thing. I could consider a 20:1 risk if a had good data to suggest its worth it. As long as it plays this way of course. Not saying it will, but on the other hand, im not saying this is the ONLY smart thing to put some money on. Preferably i would want to have...
Keep us updated if you want. I am just a bit skeptical for now. Nothing personal.
  • #114
  • Edited 2:18am Feb 8, 2015 1:53am | Edited 2:18am
Quoting Robertk
{quote} Keep us updated if you want. I am just a bit skeptical for now. Nothing personal.
If risk reward is 1:6 and if it wins 6 times out of 7, then its profitable. Or make it 7 wins of 8 to beat the spread and slippage.
My signature is: "Classified".
  • #115
  • Feb 8, 2015 5:33am Feb 8, 2015 5:33am
Quoting yaed
{quote} If risk reward is 1:6 and if it wins 6 times out of 7, then its profitable. Or make it 7 wins of 8 to beat the spread and slippage.
The problem with that theory Yaed is that you do not have a MAX deviation implemented. The 6:1 + risk:reward was just for the sake of illustration. It will get messy, reall messy in notime on rare occasions. Last week i found a similar money management method on these forums ( grid matrix trading ) ( http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=518257 ).

While at first it looks different they also enter on a trend change ( in your case 4H break above previous high/low ) with no max deviation implemented.
Look at the drawdown they are getting. While its rare eventually you will meet the inevitable.

Why dont you simply work with a 1:1 for example, accept your losses. If a break of 4H after a down/upmove has a higher chance of continuation, then you at least have a clear edge.
  • #116
  • Feb 8, 2015 6:01pm Feb 8, 2015 6:01pm
Quoting yaed
{quote} Ok, yeah. Actually i dont have autism or asberger or OCD. Some say im smart, some people think im strange, maybe im just fucked in the head.
I have built similar systems into an ea and unfortunately I highly doubt it will work in the LONG run (no one knows 100% until you test it, but I am 99% sure).
The issue is the Drawdown. When you keep opening positions as price moves against you it very quickly compounds. The only pair that is balanced enough to handle this type of thing is the EU, but how would you strategy have handled the recent Sell rally? Not very well. For you to recover the loss on the first trade in the sequence then the last few trades would have to be much larger, and you can see where that is heading right? Big ol margin call. If you don't use larger positions its not likely you will make money at all.
Also in real life being 60%+ in drawdrawn is not that easy to handle. Watching your last few months of profit disappear in a single move against you is pretty tough.
It will work for a few months and then crash. Sorry.


Anyway, everyone please continue with the thread. Secret footprints... (great topic)
What's it all about? It's all about money.
  • #117
  • Feb 9, 2015 5:53am Feb 9, 2015 5:53am
Quoting Robertk
{quote} The problem with that theory Yaed is that you do not have a MAX deviation implemented. The 6:1 + risk:reward was just for the sake of illustration. It will get messy, reall messy in notime on rare occasions. Last week i found a similar money management method on these forums ( grid matrix trading ) ( http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=518257 ). While at first it looks different they also enter on a trend change ( in your case 4H break above previous high/low ) with no max deviation implemented. Look at the drawdown they...
Well its a basic idea, not something i would trade ONLY that, real money. Its insane to ignore even the most obvious S/R, such as:

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Thats E/U H4. But i mean, the basic idea i presented is still there in my head. Im watching. Thinking. I dont think any mechanical strategy of such simple math could be enough, but its an interesting thing that nobody is discussing. That i know.
My signature is: "Classified".
  • #118
  • Edited 6:37am Feb 9, 2015 5:55am | Edited 6:37am
Quoting Innate
{quote} I have built similar systems into an ea and unfortunately I highly doubt it will work in the LONG run (no one knows 100% until you test it, but I am 99% sure). The issue is the Drawdown. When you keep opening positions as price moves against you it very quickly compounds. The only pair that is balanced enough to handle this type of thing is the EU, but how would you strategy have handled the recent Sell rally? Not very well. For you to recover the loss on the first trade in the sequence then the last few trades would have to be much larger,...
Erh, well there should and must be a way to decide if its selling or buying that is the thing. If the switch occurs when positions are open, they must be closed of course. My idea was to propose a basic idea here, one that i think is good. And an idea that i havent seen people discuss. So if its a "Secret"? I dunno, maybe. If noone thought of it, its not a secret, or maybe someone did and there is something to it in which case it IS a secret.

I think its a matter of sort of getting with the program. What is posted on FF in general is a sort of "quality" or lack thereof depending on how you see it, that fits here. Presenting that is... well better would NOT fit for... well uuuh... many reasons i guess. This is at least my experience with the countless systems here, once i add them to a chart and have a look at them. Yet some peaple seem to endorse such things that clearly are... well crap. Mathematical nonsense.
My signature is: "Classified".
  • #119
  • Feb 9, 2015 7:01am Feb 9, 2015 7:01am
Quoting Proximus
Hey i`ve transformed the price (removed as much noise as possible without distorting the accuracy of the candles) {image} Does it look less random than the one shown @ post 28 Can you spot any patterns here, it should be more relevant since i removed all the noise i could, including spikes ,etc. If not then the patterns are more subtle than your conscious mind can handle and discretionary "price action" trading will will be proven to be a useless BS. If yes then can you...
I see letters, other symbols, heads, trees, roots, plants, people jumping, keys and such things.
My signature is: "Classified".
  • #120
  • Edited 11:14am Feb 9, 2015 7:29am | Edited 11:14am
Quoting Hyperion
Hmmmm, please don't show me candles, indicators and the like, there are plenty of other forums that cover those. I am talking about the subconscious collective nudge that causes large traders to all do the same thing. I have worked with many large traders and whilst they do talk to each other from time to time, they would often act in the same way without any prior discussion. What was it? The moon?, their numerology? they all got the same number of red lights on the drive to work? Some other personal cycle or rhythm? I wasn't necessarily the charts...
Well yeah, i think so too. This is the sort of thing i have been thinking for many years, i think there is what you could call "A subtle signal". I think time isnt really important, but the levels are. I mean that a bunch of people all over the world are seeing the same thing in the charts. A lot of people are waiting for price to get to a certain level and then they act. Let me take a recent example. Im using M1 for this since it fits the purpose for this.

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Have a look at this: Wait for Price to touch purple bands. Enter position in the same direction as it touch EMA 21. TP... well 4-6 pips, SL sort of equal. A person could probably make a living out of that given some screen time and perhaps some basic idea of how to read S/R. You probably shouldnt take every signal, and often you can get 20 instead of 4-6 if you just watch the PA and wait until it sort of stops. Compared to 99% of the "Systems" here... well lets just say you do the math. Dont think i could give instructions to code an EA out of it though. Need a pretty good broker.

Also, there is the EMAs im using here, the EMA 21 and the EMA 89.

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Is it reacting to the EMA 1440 on a subconsious level or are people looking at it and trading depending on where it is at?
Its not a simple thing though, you cant just buy/sell when it hits the thing if it has been away from it.

Do those MAs matter? Maybe. Sometimes. Have a look for yourself if it seems interesting.

If anyone is interested, here is the template. ONLY for E/U M1.


Attached File(s)
File Type: tpl m1.tpl   4 KB | 388 downloads


We could go on talking about levels and what happens next time price gets to a level it was rejected at and such things. But it depends on interest. Maybe not the place for it, or maybe it is. Though i must say, i have ideas akin to the originator of the thread.
My signature is: "Classified".
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