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Geppy's Geppy Thread (GBP/JPY)

  • #17,121
  • Jan 30, 2015 8:42am Jan 30, 2015 8:42am
if its break 175.70 then go down....waiting for that
  • #17,122
  • Jan 30, 2015 8:43am Jan 30, 2015 8:43am
Yup still ranging, possible LL coming up we shall see. Will try another long 176 though, although odds are we are breaking lower this coming week if we break and hold below 177 on the daily.

176.2 looks like nice spot
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  • #17,123
  • Feb 2, 2015 11:48am Feb 2, 2015 11:48am
Quoting praviiii
{quote} yes what you said is correct....the beauty of elliout wave is we can count in different way..as long as rules not break every count is correct.. you took wave count from the down so your count is valid till wave 1 low not broke..i took my wave count from top as per me wave 4 ( c wave or else wave 2 in with in wave 5... i am using both ichimoku and wavecounting ( i am not expert in these to yet..still learning) here i am attaching which i already posted couple of days back...its not new one... {image}

waiting for low break for more down falllllllllllllllll
  • #17,124
  • Feb 2, 2015 12:07pm Feb 2, 2015 12:07pm
Quoting thegmann
Yup still ranging, possible LL coming up we shall see. Will try another long 176 though, although odds are we are breaking lower this coming week if we break and hold below 177 on the daily. 176.2 looks like nice spot {image} {image}
I'd be careful about all longs. The price seems interesting in bringing bull traps, just like the previous 176.20 bounce. I don't expect to reach beyond 177.70/50 if the price is planning on breaching 175.70 at last.

I'll also take a long, but I don't expect to get more than 40-50 pips at the most. Or maybe I should give up on letting profits run for now and just pay it safe at all key points.

I hope the price doesnt move out of the hourly chart range though. It'd make Friday even more potentially profitable.
  • #17,125
  • Feb 2, 2015 12:27pm Feb 2, 2015 12:27pm
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} I'd be careful about all longs. The price seems interesting in bringing bull traps, just like the previous 176.20 bounce. I don't expect to reach beyond 177.70/50 if the price is planning on breaching 175.70 at last. I'll also take a long, but I don't expect to get more than 40-50 pips at the most. Or maybe I should give up on letting profits run for now and just pay it safe at all key points. I hope the price doesnt move out of the hourly chart range though. It'd make Friday even more potentially profitable.
yeah there's some profit to be made playing the small bounces around 176-176.2. Worse case scenario i'm in for the long haul at 176 anyways and will scale in lower around 173.60. Just don't over leverage take small positions and see what sticks, at least that's my plan. This is my supply area i've been watching for several weeks now and have no problem taking positions here that I can hold and add to later on if price does decide to break lower towards the 173 and worst case scenario 168 support levels where, at that point the whole uptrend would be in serious contention and we would most likely be experiencing huge shifts in the world where everything would be out the window.
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  • #17,126
  • Feb 2, 2015 12:32pm Feb 2, 2015 12:32pm
Quoting thegmann
{quote} yeah there's some profit to be made playing the small bounces around 176-176.2. Worse case scenario i'm in for the long haul at 176 anyways and will scale in lower around 173.60. Just don't over leverage take small positions and see what sticks, at least that's my plan. This is my supply area i've been watching for several weeks now and have no problem taking positions here that I can hold and add to later on if price does decide to break lower towards the 173 and worst case scenario 168 support levels where, at that point the whole uptrend...
Ah, the yearly chart. If only I had a few ten thousand dollars more in my account. I'd just buy one lot right here, keep adding on the lowers, and leave it for the next 3 months. Guaranteed profit in the thousands if not tens of thousands.

Sadly, I don't have that much to spend on forex yet.

I don't see 168 yet though; I'm looking for 175.00/174.70, followed by 173~173.50, 171/170 for key points right now. Anything else would depend on the chart movements and the resulting fib numbers from said shifts in prices. What numbers are you looking for?
  • #17,127
  • Edited 7:14pm Feb 2, 2015 6:45pm | Edited 7:14pm
So, out of nominal 175.7 /175/174 ish support, I really can't see too much to hold it up. Yes, 173.2/173.5 might offer support, but through there it's 172.2/171 ish.

Over the past few months, it has attempted to get down, but was always held up, then pushed up again by (a) the Scottish election (b) the BOJ. It seems to me at least that nearly every potential support has been already tested or used up. The other week, it would have been reasonable for the top of the daily cloud at 181 to hold, but it sliced through it. The top of the weekly cloud is at 172.2. Nearby monthly cloud support expired last month and it falling away rapidly, indeed plumeting. That means one of two things (i) it's not significant anymore (ii) it will be tested further down.

Technical support may be lacking in its defence. Only a massive change in sentiment will possibly hold it up. Unless there's some hidden support that we haven't yet identified.

Above 180 and 181 it's up again.
  • #17,128
  • Feb 2, 2015 7:00pm Feb 2, 2015 7:00pm
Quoting Mpt
So, out of nominal 175.7 /175/174 ish support, I really can't see too much to hold it up. Yes, the 173 area might offer some support, but through there it's 172/171. Over the past few months, it has attempted to get down, but was always held up, then pushed up again by (a) the Scottish election (b) the BOJ. It seems to me at least that nearly every potential support has been already tested or used up. The other week, it would have been reasonable for the top of the daily cloud at 181 to hold, but it sliced through it. The top of the weekly cloud...
What are you basing this supposed huge sell off in GBP and buying of JPY on? Fundamentally GBP is stronger than JPY, what would cause a large scale trend reversal at this level? This larger style sell off is based a lot on the USDJPY sell off/correction. In order for the yen to get to the levels your talking about USDJPY would have to break below 112 which I just don't see happening. I could see 173.6 worst case 168 but anything below that would signify a serious shift in central banking policy. The fact of the matter is the BoJ is printing and the BoE is not. Especially if the FED raise rates (I personally dont see this happening anytime soon but the market sure does) we will see a huge shift in money out of Japan and further devaluing of the yen.
  • #17,129
  • Feb 2, 2015 7:05pm Feb 2, 2015 7:05pm
I have a more immediate question: When ARE we going to test 175.70? It's been pounding 176.20/00 for the third time in the past 4 trading days.

And it's not as though it wants to go up; if it was a bouncing back to the top of the trading range, I'd understand. But we get a comparatively small movement up for about 100-150 pips before sinking right back down.

It's frustrating, I tell you. I can't have a dedicated long since a breach of 175.70 opens new frontier below, but this range is sticking right to the middle, and it's killing me.
  • #17,130
  • Feb 2, 2015 8:51pm Feb 2, 2015 8:51pm
I am holding this short with a target of 173.00
Hopefully H4 down trend will found strong support at 173.00
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80% effort, 20% luck
  • #17,131
  • Feb 2, 2015 9:02pm Feb 2, 2015 9:02pm
OK, I'm not saying it's definitely going anywhere just yet. Using my argument from late last week, 175.7 should never be touched again, or in any event broken, but the failure at 178.9 was a little disheartening. What I was trying to say was this remains a significant place for GJ, where it turns on sentiment ... or not. And should it turn down aggressively, I was just suggesting that technical support below may be totally lacking.

If it gets up over 176.9/177 again, next would be 177.8, then an attempt at 178.2 or 178.7. That would suggest a consolidation triangle. Only if the latter breaks could it attempt 180 again. Even so, only a break over 180 and over 181 would return it to being bullish

UJ has been attempting to stay with a triangle (of sorts) and it teeters. Should that triangle/wedge fail, then UJ tumbles. It really must hold above 117

It's pretty much make or break time. A bullish triangle, a broader consolidation triangle, or a bearish one. I think we will now know within hours.
  • #17,132
  • Feb 2, 2015 9:29pm Feb 2, 2015 9:29pm
Quoting Mpt
OK, 175.7 should never be touched again, or in any event broken..
Why shouldn't 175.70 be touched? I don't see a fundamental reason for merely touching it to be a death sentence for short term bullish movement

also, the Aussies cut the cash rate. USD will strengthen, so wem ight see a rise in gbp/jpy and usd/jpy. Myabe. We'll have to wait an hour to see a clearer direction.
  • #17,133
  • Feb 2, 2015 9:55pm Feb 2, 2015 9:55pm
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} Why shouldn't 175.70 be touched? I don't see a fundamental reason for merely touching it to be a death sentence for short term bullish movement also, the Aussies cut the cash rate. USD will strengthen, so wem ight see a rise in gbp/jpy and usd/jpy. Myabe. We'll have to wait an hour to see a clearer direction.
It comes down to wave theory. Sorry if I bore you ... the second move up from 175.7 had a 5 sub wave structure. Accordingly, an interpretation of that move could be that it was, in fact, the first move up in a new sequence. Following on from there, the next move down cannot and is not allowed to move past the previous low. That retracement would normally track down 61.8/76, but it's gone further. OK, it hasn't moved below yet, but the window of opportunity is closing fast.
  • #17,134
  • Feb 2, 2015 10:00pm Feb 2, 2015 10:00pm
Quoting Mpt
{quote} It comes down to wave theory. Sorry if I bore you ... the second move up from 175.7 had a 5 sub wave structure. Accordingly, an interpretation of that move could be that it was, in fact, the first move up in a new sequence. Following on from there, the next move down cannot and is not allowed to move past the previous low. That retracement would normally track down 61.8/76, but it's gone further. OK, it hasn't moved below yet, but the window of opportunity is closing fast.
Not at all; thanks for taking the time to explain. But in your own words, the next move down ONLY "is not allowed to move past the previous low." As long as it hits the exact same area and pops back up, doesn't that mean it's still valid?

*not: I use waves only as general indicators, so I never learned the exact specifics
  • #17,135
  • Feb 2, 2015 10:07pm Feb 2, 2015 10:07pm
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} Not at all; thanks for taking the time to explain. But in your own words, the next move down ONLY "is not allowed to move past the previous low." As long as it hits the exact same area and pops back up, doesn't that mean it's still valid? *not: I use waves only as general indicators, so I never learned the exact specifics
Yes. But 1 pip break is still a break.
  • #17,136
  • Edited 10:42pm Feb 2, 2015 10:16pm | Edited 10:42pm
well it didnt break ...At least not yet. Long from 175.797

I'm OUT we broke 175.7 down we go.
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  • #17,137
  • Feb 2, 2015 10:18pm Feb 2, 2015 10:18pm
Quoting Mpt
{quote} Yes. But 1 pip break is still a break.
Given that it's the geppy we're talking about (one of the most volatile pairs in forex), I can't imagine that a single pip below previous price would invalidate the entire wave altogether. I'm sorry, but since market volatility often causes price to fluctuate 10-30 pips even on very significant support/resistances, I think you're over-exaggerating things.

Of course, because it's volatile, I can be wrong as well. We may see a breach below 175.70 soon. But I don't think it'll happen today, since we only have 3 hours until London opens up.

London will be the make-or break for the geppy. Especially when you consider that the pound sterling is the state currency of the U.K.
  • #17,138
  • Feb 2, 2015 10:27pm Feb 2, 2015 10:27pm
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} Given that it's the geppy we're talking about (one of the most volatile pairs in forex), I can't imagine that a single pip below previous price would invalidate the entire wave altogether. I'm sorry, but since market volatility often causes price to fluctuate 10-30 pips even on very significant support/resistances, I think you're over-exaggerating things. Of course, because it's volatile, I can be wrong as well. We may see a breach below 175.70 soon. But I don't think it'll happen today, since we only have 3 hours until London opens up....
0.1 pip invalidates. If it were to fall 1 pip below then recover, all that means is that the original interpretation was wrong and it would possibly be in a broader consolidation. There are many wave related rules that are flexible. That is not one of them.
  • #17,139
  • Feb 2, 2015 10:28pm Feb 2, 2015 10:28pm
make or break here. We either get a wick testing 175.7 area and the start of a bullish monthly and upward move. Or we break 175.7 and 173.6 is where we will end the month. Let's see...
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  • #17,140
  • Feb 2, 2015 10:48pm Feb 2, 2015 10:48pm
We briefly hit 175.50. I wonder what that means..
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