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Dragon Riders GBP/JPY

  • #3,081
  • Jan 30, 2015 11:42am Jan 30, 2015 11:42am
Quoting Hickson
{quote} Yes, same for me. My job is not stupid but has little realistic hope to get a decent salary. Have to accept reality and hone my skill in more profitable fields of life as long as I am still relatively young.
Me too, then I leave and stop making money for other men and make it for myself.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #3,082
  • Jan 30, 2015 5:49pm Jan 30, 2015 5:49pm
it's going with W. D. Gann's favorite reversal day....early next week we should be ready for a sharp spike down.....buyin' the crud out of it.....
  • #3,083
  • Jan 30, 2015 5:55pm Jan 30, 2015 5:55pm
Quoting Gbp/jpy
it's going with W. D. Gann's favorite reversal day....early next week we should be ready for a sharp spike down.....buyin' the crud out of it.....
Why?
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #3,084
  • Jan 30, 2015 8:44pm Jan 30, 2015 8:44pm
Think here. There are 52 weeks in a year and only a few are over. The USD is in the start of an upward reversal from a 12 year downtrend. Risks from Greece's Syriza party are major ones. Contemplate Lehman Brothers X10. Interest rates are gonna rise in the U.S. and no new stimulus from Japan with no rate rises from the BOE either. GDP in the U.S. first estimate is is much lower than previously thought. Downward revisions in earnings. 5 year bull market wih 17,000 on the DOW tested 4 times now. It will break and GJ with it. Bank Black Box algos hate uncertainty.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #3,085
  • Jan 30, 2015 9:36pm Jan 30, 2015 9:36pm
Quoting Hickson
{quote} Why?
Hey Hickson, it's historical......like last year on Feb. 4.....
It was Gann's biggy date......
  • #3,086
  • Jan 30, 2015 9:40pm Jan 30, 2015 9:40pm
Quoting Temujin
Think here. There are 52 weeks in a year and only a few are over. The USD is in the start of an upward reversal from a 12 year downtrend. Risks from Greece's Syriza party are major ones. Contemplate Lehman Brothers X10. Interest rates are gonna rise in the U.S. and no new stimulus from Japan with no rate rises from the BOE either. GDP in the U.S. first estimate is is much lower than previously thought. Downward revisions in earnings. 5 year bull market wih 17,000 on the DOW tested 4 times now. It will break and GJ with it. Bank Black Box algos hate...
Excellent information....thanks for that post sir!!.............and the last line up there!!!
  • #3,087
  • Jan 31, 2015 9:55am Jan 31, 2015 9:55am
Quoting Gbp/jpy
{quote} Hey Hickson, it's historical......like last year on Feb. 4..... It was Gann's biggy date......
I am not sure of the value of Gann's analysis. Maybe because I have not seen the market as long as you did. Elements of Astrology mixed with ancient mathematics ... then these Gann-fans ... lots of messy line on a chart where it could go anywhere and then if hit one can afterwards say: oh, it hit the level

Then again, even if you think it will spike down based on historic data. You have to know when and how far for a good entry and SL, otherwise this has not much value in my view. Fibonacci tells me more about levels to get a decent Risk Reward, maybe I am just missing out on old Gann, it is rather mysterious to me ... a chart would be nice fo better understanding of your view.

My take on a technical level: Sentiment change in January saw Geppy short term bearish, but let's not forget it is still bullish since May 2012 (I was playing on a basketball court and finishing my graduation at that time, not knowing I would ever get into this business )

For illustration: I am considering this in a range after bearish continuation. The question now is: Will the buyers show up or will this test lower levels first? I assume the latter. From all Fibo targets, the one I left in the chart sticks out to me. It is likely that we will test this in my view. Could go even lower! This is crazy Geppy.

Regards
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Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #3,088
  • Edited 12:10pm Jan 31, 2015 11:53am | Edited 12:10pm
Quoting Gbp/jpy
{quote} Excellent information....thanks for that post sir!!.............and the last line up there!!!
Now Feb. 28 is the deadline for Greece to reach a deal so damage is being contained and this will be put in the background until then. I also read the dollar bulls will take a breather this week now that the FOMC is done. Morgan Stanley has a target on GBP/USD of 1.38 but it has nothing to do with this week. 1.50 has been defended strongly just like the 176 zone on GBP/JPY. There can be some big upside this week. I'm thinking this because The monthly is one big red but we are supported on the 200 EMA zone on the weekly chart.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #3,089
  • Jan 31, 2015 12:25pm Jan 31, 2015 12:25pm
Hi guys,
noone wants to help me with my GBP trade, so have come here to ask for help . My main trades now are in UJ, simply bcos of fact am long term bearish on Yen and bullish on USD for several reasons. Have bailed out of Europe pre ECB, but now feel prices will settle down within next week and would like to a) continue shorting Yen b) Buy few GBPs, as I think GBP beeing the most long term stable hard currency and no matter Carneys QE, think ECB action should push some liquidity to the Brittains. So is a short term invest like for a month. Am totally lost when it comes to technicals of this pair as I ve never traded it. Will really appreciate any thoughts,
Thanks,
Tom
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #3,090
  • Jan 31, 2015 3:09pm Jan 31, 2015 3:09pm
Quoting Hickson
{quote} For illustration: I am considering this in a range after bearish continuation. The question now is: Will the buyers show up or will this test lower levels first? I assume the latter. From all Fibo targets, the one I left in the chart sticks out to me. It is likely that we will test this in my view. Could go even lower! This is crazy Geppy. Regards {image}
First off, I assume we'll retest 175.70 soon. and by soon, I mean by Sunday or Monday soon. Reason is that it's the key support, and the fact that the gbp/jpy bounced up slowly without clear direction right at the closing hours of Friday seems to indicate a last minute test of 177.20/00~177.50 before testing the lower leg. It is VERY rare in a bearish momentum where the bears would refuse to test a crucial support that has been tested twice before. It's like dangling a nice, big juicy steak in front of a famished dog. The dog isn't going to just sit there and watch its meal wander off. We've also had previous cases where price bounced from around 176.20 to 177.20/00 only to fall down to 175.70. History tends to repeat itself in forex.

We are also likely to see a bounce after hitting 175.70. But this is a bit troublesome, since there's only 2 real scenarios by that point.

1) The bounce lasts for the next 24 hours and possibly more until we retest the descending triangle resistance shown on the 4 hour chart. If you don't know what I'm talking about, look it up. Look for somewhere in the 178s for optimal profit taking. A good break above 179 leads to 180.20/00. We break above 180.20/00, look for testing previously yearly highs. A rejection at the upper 178s/lower 179s would mean retesting lower supports, and possibly 175.70 again. In other words, range trading.

2) We have a small bounce, only to get rejected somewhere on the next 1-2 minor resistances or so, and falls down. After sometime, it penetrates the 175.70 and heads down. In that case, I look for somewhere between 175 and upper 174s to provide some support. That's the former resistance that held until the BOJ surprise QE pushed the price to new highs. However, I'm also looking for lower areas.

173.50 will either provide a small support that's respected and then breached, or outright ignored and served to act as a catalyst for further movement down to retest 173.

173 is going to be a point of contention for me. There's a very real possibility of testing 171/170, but we might see a bounce at 173 before that happens.

Anyone have similar points? It doesn't matter whether you're favoring a bounce back up from 175.70 or further downward movement. I'm open to constructive criticism.

As for the news about China, it shouldn't be a deal-breaker for any established movements, but we might see an erratic movement to a support/resistance more than usual. If we do have major complications, then I'll have to readjust my strategy accordingly.
  • #3,091
  • Jan 31, 2015 3:32pm Jan 31, 2015 3:32pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Hi guys, noone wants to help me with my GBP trade, so have come here to ask for help . My main trades now are in UJ, simply bcos of fact am long term bearish on Yen and bullish on USD for several reasons. Have bailed out of Europe pre ECB, but now feel prices will settle down within next week and would like to a) continue shorting Yen b) Buy few GBPs, as I think GBP beeing the most long term stable hard currency and no matter Carneys QE, think ECB action should push some liquidity to the Brittains. So is a short term invest like for a month. Am...

Zdravim Prahu taky tam je tolik sněhu ? From technical i think GbpYen can go more lower if it be able to break and close under 176,00 area if not and PA breaks Kumo UP at H4 can go back to uptrend
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  • #3,092
  • Jan 31, 2015 4:25pm Jan 31, 2015 4:25pm
Quoting Petr.K
{quote} Zdravim Prahu taky tam je tolik sněhu ? From technical i think GbpYen can go more lower if it be able to break and close under 176,00 area if not and PA breaks Kumo UP at H4 can go back to uptrend {image} {image}
yes, the chikou span looks bullish....supported even
( that trailing line )
looking for a momentum change in the 8H chart.....or daily
I've got my heart set on seeing a spike down ....then up and off to the moon!!.....like this week

ETAdd ...that spike....not a regular one this time.....a true " spike from hail "
  • #3,093
  • Jan 31, 2015 4:30pm Jan 31, 2015 4:30pm
Hey, Vermillion, constructive critics.....no. Your post is really complete,,,,makes me feel all organised after reading it....ha
  • #3,094
  • Feb 1, 2015 10:30am Feb 1, 2015 10:30am
Quoting Gbp/jpy
{quote} yes, the chikou span looks bullish....supported even ( that trailing line ) looking for a momentum change in the 8H chart.....or daily I've got my heart set on seeing a spike down ....then up and off to the moon!!.....like this week ETAdd ...that spike....not a regular one this time.....a true " spike from hail "
That's one of my questions: how far do you think we'll "spike down" before we go back up to 180s and beyond?
  • #3,095
  • Feb 1, 2015 12:51pm Feb 1, 2015 12:51pm
Quoting Petr.K
{quote} Zdravim Prahu taky tam je tolik sněhu ? From technical i think GbpYen can go more lower if it be able to break and close under 176,00 area if not and PA breaks Kumo UP at H4 can go back to uptrend {image} {image}
Also UJ seems may correct lower. Monthly is attempting to break 117,23, which could easily lead us to test 15th Jan low @ 116,5. Ok I wait till mid of week and watch PA and then shoot test minilot if we form some kind of H1 bottom. If I fack up will send you a bill . Btw, there is almost never snow in Prague for longer time brother, usually like a week, then it melts up in smog and dust into some kind of brownish mud. Would need to keep on snowing, hope that happens, I love snow.

Thanks a lot for thoughts,

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #3,096
  • Feb 1, 2015 1:06pm Feb 1, 2015 1:06pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} Also UJ seems may correct lower. Monthly is attempting to break 117,23, which could easily lead us to test 15th Jan low @ 116,5. Ok I wait till mid of week and watch PA and then shoot test minilot if we form some kind of H1 bottom. If I fack up will send you a bill . Btw, there is almost never snow in Prague for longer time brother, usually like a week, then it melts up in smog and dust into some kind of brownish mud. Would need to keep on snowing, hope that happens, I love snow. Thanks a lot for thoughts, T
Bill ? maybe beer :-) Oh yes a want go live to Prag i like the view from some apartments but im sick from smog etc... when i have lived in munich last year never ever ever smog Maybe i move back there .
  • #3,097
  • Feb 1, 2015 1:09pm Feb 1, 2015 1:09pm
Speaking of which, I think this is due to people slowly acknowledging Oil may be, well, not bottoming, but is approaching 2008 low so could/should bounce. And due to neg USD correlation USD could bounce as well. See, during ECB move I was speculating the´r gonna do QE but I was afraid volatility in Europe. I have expected once they shoot, money will flow out of Europe to USA - possibly some to Brittains. I wasnt expecting money will flow also in Yen, which is what happened. For some reason, think investing public started to view Yen as short term safe haven and I think it may be due to that possible bounce in Oil. Really not sure here, as is only technical, pretty hard for me to see into Oil. Anyway, SNB and ECB action produced quited some panic flow into Yen, unfortunately. Think this is what got us stuck in UJ down and is affecting this pair as well. But due to the fact it was just fast speculative money repositioning after move, think mid and long term investors wont be buying those Yens.
T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #3,098
  • Feb 1, 2015 1:10pm Feb 1, 2015 1:10pm
Quoting Petr.K
{quote} Bill ? maybe beer :-) Oh yes a want go live to Prag i like the view from some apartments but im sick from smog etc... when i have lived in munich last year never ever ever smog Maybe i move back there .
Yy, was a typo, I meant beer ofc
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #3,099
  • Feb 1, 2015 1:11pm Feb 1, 2015 1:11pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} Yy, was a typo, I meant beer ofc
  • #3,100
  • Feb 1, 2015 8:52pm Feb 1, 2015 8:52pm
Vermillion....320 pips in one shot, more than 215 pips, anyway!!
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