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Geppy's Geppy Thread (GBP/JPY)

  • #17,101
  • Jan 29, 2015 5:08am Jan 29, 2015 5:08am
Quoting IveGotQuads
{quote} Hey men how are you doing !!! long time right, hows trading treating ya.
Quads, how goes, hopefully the dragon is being better to you than it has to me the last 2 days.
  • #17,102
  • Jan 29, 2015 5:11am Jan 29, 2015 5:11am
And we start to drop down from about one hour before the US unemployment (178.90/179=>178.40).

I wonder if we'll hit 178 in the next 19 minutes before the news comes out (178 seems to be the new ascending triangle support, if you can call it that.)
  • #17,103
  • Jan 29, 2015 5:16am Jan 29, 2015 5:16am
Quoting Vermillion
And we start to drop down from about one hour before the US unemployment (178.90/179=>178.40). I wonder if we'll hit 178 in the next 19 minutes before the news comes out (178 seems to be the new ascending triangle support, if you can call it that.)
By the same way I determine GU support, GJ support around 178.36. Looks tenuous again.
  • #17,104
  • Jan 29, 2015 5:22am Jan 29, 2015 5:22am
Quoting Mpt
{quote} By the same way I determine GU support, GJ support around 178.36. Looks tenuous again.
Yeah, the area 178.34/45 tends to be a bit of a uncertain area for me as well. Could go either way there. I'm not making any predictions about up or down until I see the unemployment claims come out and see the price reactions.
  • #17,105
  • Jan 29, 2015 5:24am Jan 29, 2015 5:24am
Quoting mrcreosote
{quote} yes the wicks in that area were interesting as well.... lol, pray tell more about your S&R methodology.....
It's almost bedtime here. I'll post an image tomorrow.
  • #17,106
  • Jan 29, 2015 5:33am Jan 29, 2015 5:33am
USD unemployment is extremely positive compared to previous weeks. good chance of usd/jpy making a new high and the gbp/jpy might follow. Still, we'll have to wait and see market reactions for now.
  • #17,107
  • Jan 29, 2015 5:45am Jan 29, 2015 5:45am
I think I wrote the other day that we'll have no FOMC, BOE or BOJ to take us up and 'over the line' as in the past. This time, I really believe it has to be both Yen and Pound together in tandem. Correlation takes a while to come together. Presumably, that GU support will hold as well.
  • #17,108
  • Jan 29, 2015 6:16am Jan 29, 2015 6:16am
Quoting mrcreosote
{quote} GU support at 1.5117?
Nice bounce from there, wrong thread, doh
used to be undecided but nowadays can't make my mind up
  • #17,109
  • Jan 29, 2015 10:35pm Jan 29, 2015 10:35pm
GU fell out of area I nominated as support. That took GJ down. Right now, GU is closing in on reclaiming that level (also it daily pivot). UJ has fallen back half way into its small triangle mess and sits on its own weekly pivot. GJ is still teetering about the weekly pivot, 50% retracement and the FOMC low.

Maybe it is still bearish and will go lower, but the creeping moves down thus far appear more corrective than impulsive.

Until proven otherwise, I remain of the view that GJ completed at the 61.8 retracement area. (which is odd for GJ as it more often goes to the 76.4 area) In wave terminology, a wave 2.

Meanwhile, I wait. But this is just my view - my personal take on the situation. Right now it's all terribly 'pivotal'.
  • #17,110
  • Jan 29, 2015 11:16pm Jan 29, 2015 11:16pm
Quoting Mpt
GU fell out of area I nominated as support. That took GJ down. Right now, GU is closing in on reclaiming that level (also it daily pivot). UJ has fallen back half way into its small triangle mess and sits on its own weekly pivot. GJ is still teetering about the weekly pivot, 50% retracement and the FOMC low. Maybe it is still bearish and will go lower, but the creeping moves down thus far appear more corrective than impulsive. Until proven otherwise, I remain of the view that GJ completed at the 61.8 retracement area. (which is odd for GJ as it...
Yes what he said,, its pretty much a mess. From my weekly mess of a chart I see GJ resting on support area in the 176.20/.50 for 3 weeks now and if the current daily doesn't get above 179.50 ish we will have 3 weekly candle lower highs and they are progressively lower, but I don't consider bear yet, it hasn't gotten and held below the 50 ema on my chart, But they broke below the 25ema and have tried for 3 weeks to go above and have failed to hold and clear. Last game which resulted in a run for the current weekly top started just below that 50ema,,, Id say for longs risk is immediately down to 175 ish should the 176 area fail, should fail then 173 then mid 160s,, risk for shorts is a close above 179.25 ish. What will happen,,,, If I knew that Id be buying an island right now LoL
  • #17,111
  • Jan 29, 2015 11:24pm Jan 29, 2015 11:24pm
as per elliot wave it has to go down ..if break 175.70
  • #17,112
  • Jan 30, 2015 2:23am Jan 30, 2015 2:23am
Quoting praviiii
as per elliot wave it has to go down ..if break 175.70
Your elliot wave differs from mine
  • #17,113
  • Edited 2:53am Jan 30, 2015 2:25am | Edited 2:53am
OK, it hit 177. Now it all comes to whether its REALLY bullish or not. It floats above support now - so the market has control. The next technical support now is at 176.

And Mr creosote - I promise I will post. This MAY be a damned good example. Otherwise, better bring a bucket
  • #17,114
  • Jan 30, 2015 2:31am Jan 30, 2015 2:31am
Quoting Mpt
{quote} Your elliot wave differs from mine
  • #17,115
  • Edited 4:45am Jan 30, 2015 3:57am | Edited 4:45am
Quoting praviiii
{quote}
No need to be embarrassed. You could be right. My view here is that wave 1 to the upside has completed and these moves over the past 24 hours or so are wave 2 .... meaning that 3 is about to start (or has now started). But in any event should it now break under 175.7 i was wrong. As simple as that. Of course, it could still be a wave 4 correction and these moves gives the appearance of 1/2 etc.

As of now, I reckon technical analysis is over until it proves itself, one way or another.
  • #17,116
  • Jan 30, 2015 4:43am Jan 30, 2015 4:43am
Quoting Mpt
OK, it hit 177. Now it all comes to whether its REALLY bullish or not. It floats above support now - so the market has control. The next technical support now is at 176. And Mr creosote - I promise I will post. This MAY be a damned good example. Otherwise, better bring a bucket
Yes I was just a tourist admiring that beautiful bounce from 177...
Don't worry about me , I'm just rummaging around for one more waaaaferrrrr thinnnn minnntttt....
used to be undecided but nowadays can't make my mind up
  • #17,117
  • Jan 30, 2015 4:43am Jan 30, 2015 4:43am
Quoting Mpt
{quote} No need to be embarrassed. You could be right. My view here is that wave 1 to the upside has completed and these moves over the past 24 hours or so are wave 2 .... meaning that 3 is about to start (or has now started). But in any event should it now break under 175.7 i was wrong. As simple as that. Of course, it could still be wave 4 correction and these moves gives the appearance of 1/2 etc.
yes what you said is correct....the beauty of elliout wave is we can count in different way..as long as rules not break every count is correct..

you took wave count from the down so your count is valid till wave 1 low not broke..i took my wave count from top as per me wave 4 ( c wave or else wave 2 in with in wave 5...

i am using both ichimoku and wavecounting ( i am not expert in these to yet..still learning)

here i am attaching which i already posted couple of days back...its not new one...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy.jpg Size: 296 KB
  • #17,118
  • Jan 30, 2015 5:05am Jan 30, 2015 5:05am
Quoting praviiii
{quote} yes what you said is correct....the beauty of elliout wave is we can count in different way..as long as rules not break every count is correct.. you took wave count from the down so your count is valid till wave 1 low not broke..i took my wave count from top as per me wave 4 ( c wave or else wave 2 in with in wave 5... i am using both ichimoku and wavecounting ( i am not expert in these to yet..still learning) here i am attaching which i already posted couple of days back...its not new one... {image}
Yes, I'm only too well aware of the two alternatives ... and this having been wave 4 is probably right. As I wrote here earlier, what I have going against me here is the 175 /61.8 area, which is not too common with GJ. At the same time, I see no need to 'test' down further .... or much further anyway. Breaking into the cloud would also be 'so' wave 3 ish. You've probably read some of my ramblings here, but the third thing that determines my view is the new month next week, and GJ now above 177/176.9 the monthly 200 simple moving average. Lastly, the fact that C waves do not always have an extension 5th wave. Those are the ONLY things that influence my view - otherwise I'd be in favour of wave 4, seeking a new low. Which probably is and always has been the correct view.
  • #17,119
  • Jan 30, 2015 5:28am Jan 30, 2015 5:28am
Quoting Mpt
{quote} Yes, I'm only too well aware of the two alternatives ... and this having been wave 4 is probably right. As I wrote here earlier, what I have going against me here is the 175 /61.8 area, which is not too common with GJ. At the same time, I see no need to 'test' down further .... or much further anyway. Breaking into the cloud would also be 'so' wave 3 ish. You've probably read some of my ramblings here, but the third thing that determines my view is the new month next week, and GJ now above 177/176.9 the monthly 200 simple moving average....
which time frame did you start count ?

please keep post your views it will help for me for better understanding.....
  • #17,120
  • Jan 30, 2015 6:35am Jan 30, 2015 6:35am
Wow guys did you see that? Touched last weeks close to the pip :nerd:
used to be undecided but nowadays can't make my mind up
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