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Geppy's Geppy Thread (GBP/JPY)

  • #17,081
  • Edited 9:11pm Jan 28, 2015 8:57pm | Edited 9:11pm
Quoting Mpt
Hopefully, this bullish thrust will get to at least 180. At around 181.5/182, GJ is back again. FWIW, the possible reversal pattern I wrote about earlier suggested at least 180, but possibly 182 ish (height of pattern appled to breakout retest. Pattern height 460 pips. Retest was at 177.6. Maybe it works that way ... maybe it doesn't. At least it's not going down.
If 178.70/60 gives way, we're back to pivot point 178.35/45. We'll probably establish further proof of either direction.

If it holds, the 179.30/00 could be a resistance, but I imagine it won't hold, and we're probably see 180.10/00 before any significant pause in the bullish momentum followed by a temporary correction down. It would also add further support to 175.70 being the end of the correction.

Update 1: We're back down with a breach of 178.70/60. Let's see which scenario plays out.
  • #17,082
  • Jan 28, 2015 9:13pm Jan 28, 2015 9:13pm
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} If 178.70/60 gives way, we're back tp pivot point 178.35/45. We'll probably establish further proof of either direction. If it holds, the 179.30/00 could be a resistance, but I imagine it won't hold, and we're probably see 180.10/00 before any significant pause in the bullish momentum followed by a temporary correction down. It would also add further support to 175.70 being the end of the correction. Update 1: We're back down with a breach of 178.70/60. Let's see which scenario plays out.
With this thing, you can only do your best analysis and expect to be pleasantly surprised or, as has been the norm of late, disappointed.

UJ has returned to the apex of it's small 8 day old triangle and when price returns to the middle it either goes one way the other. For our collective sanity, I hope it moves up.
  • #17,083
  • Jan 28, 2015 9:26pm Jan 28, 2015 9:26pm
Quoting Mpt
{quote} For our collective sanity, I hope it moves up.
Oh god, NO. You just said the H-word. That which must never be spoken in Forex. If we stay in a price range limbo until tomorrow, I'm blaming you.
  • #17,084
  • Jan 28, 2015 9:36pm Jan 28, 2015 9:36pm
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} Oh god, NO. You just said the H-word. That which must never be spoken in Forex. If we stay in a price range limbo until tomorrow, I'm blaming you.
Does 'pray' work for you then?? I only 'hope' because I'm so peeved off with it. Since we fell out of 180 the first time, it's been nigh on 400 trading hours.
  • #17,085
  • Jan 28, 2015 9:38pm Jan 28, 2015 9:38pm
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} Oh god, NO. You just said the H-word. That which must never be spoken in Forex. If we stay in a price range limbo until tomorrow, I'm blaming you.
oh good now we have someone to blame,,, honestly I don't care up or down just get out of this range stuff!
  • #17,086
  • Edited 10:01pm Jan 28, 2015 9:46pm | Edited 10:01pm
It would appear that 178.50, a previous support for a breakout, is now being held as a support. We might be resuming bullish momentum sooner than I expected.

I didn't notice that support because the price just pushed right past through it. Bull power, maybe?

........Didn't the price just jump past this former resistance (178.50)? Why is it acting as such a stubborn support?
  • #17,087
  • Jan 28, 2015 11:19pm Jan 28, 2015 11:19pm
Quoting Vermillion
It would appear that 178.50, a previous support for a breakout, is now being held as a support. We might be resuming bullish momentum sooner than I expected. I didn't notice that support because the price just pushed right past through it. Bull power, maybe? ........Didn't the price just jump past this former resistance (178.50)? Why is it acting as such a stubborn support?
I'm on the opposite side. What I'm seeing is that GJ will continue trending lower and will eventually break 175.7 double bottom area. Worst case scenario is that it will form a triple bottom and start ranging again. What do others say?
  • #17,088
  • Jan 28, 2015 11:25pm Jan 28, 2015 11:25pm
We have indeed broken through that unexpected (and annnoying) 178.50 support and have tested through the pivot point 178.35/45 as well. If we break below the initial resistance turned support of this bull run (178.20),we will likely see 177.80 +/- 10 pips once more.

Kudos to those who have shorted the gbp/jpy while it was temporarily above its key resistance (178.70/60). I hope your pockets are satisfied. Mine isn't, but it's gotten a bit of a taste.
  • #17,089
  • Jan 29, 2015 12:56am Jan 29, 2015 12:56am
Quoting Vermillion
We have indeed broken through that unexpected (and annnoying) 178.50 support and have tested through the pivot point 178.35/45 as well. If we break below the initial resistance turned support of this bull run (178.20),we will likely see 177.80 +/- 10 pips once more. Kudos to those who have shorted the gbp/jpy while it was temporarily above its key resistance (178.70/60). I hope your pockets are satisfied. Mine isn't, but it's gotten a bit of a taste.
Hi Vermillion,
I would like to know how did you identify the S/R at 178.5 ? I don't think this level is significant enough for us to decide to go long or short. However, if you take a look at the Daily chart, you can see that its clearly in a downtrend and there's no sign showing the bull is taking over yet. It is now indeed ranging, but forming a "descending triangle" to the downside (Daily chart). In my opinion, we need to see a break above 180.15ish to see a possible long term long recovery. Or else the price will just be ranging between 180.15 - 175.7
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  • #17,090
  • Edited 1:33am Jan 29, 2015 1:02am | Edited 1:33am
It's in a complex (so what's new) formation with a current centre pivot at 177.7 (also weekly pivot).

It all now depends on what happens if it falls below that pivot and if so into about 177/176.9 ish (the 61.8 retracement of the move up from 175.7). A bounce from there and back over the 178.5 area and clearing 179.4 would suggest bullish - at least to 180 and maybe 181 or above.

A drop out below 176.8 ish suggests this has all been a correction and it's heading for a new low (but maybe only around 174/5) before the up trend begins with the power to clear 179 properly.

So, in summary, it has already completed and is waiting for the market to take it over 179, it's about to complete a correction a little further down (177 ish) or it has more downside. Easy to snigger about that (might go up or might go down ) summation, but the type of formation it's in only proves itself when it climbs up or drops out.

The more time it spends above 177.7, the more likely it is to be bullish.

Edit - the fact that it did not climb back to 180 dispels the argument that it's in a 180/175x correction before new lows. Therefore it is simply bullish or bearish in it own right. I suspect that, after 400 hours of stupidity, the new hour or four will provide an answer.
  • #17,091
  • Jan 29, 2015 5:12am Jan 29, 2015 5:12am
Quoting js5020
{quote} oh good now we have someone to blame,,, honestly I don't care up or down just get out of this range stuff!
Hey men how are you doing !!! long time right, hows trading treating ya.
  • #17,092
  • Jan 29, 2015 5:16am Jan 29, 2015 5:16am
Yeah no momentum at the moment... definitely a lot of break even trades in the pipes. We should talk later, and guys listen to js5020 and MPT both strong traders with tons of experience in this pair. goodluck
  • #17,093
  • Edited 6:02am Jan 29, 2015 5:24am | Edited 6:02am
Quoting IveGotQuads
{quote} Hey men how are you doing !!! long time right, hows trading treating ya.
Hi mate. All is well. You could argue that this move up from 175 is analogous with the September move from 169.5 ... and we're sitting on Sept 17. From the equivalent point to where we sit today it got up - slowly at first - just as NY came on line. If history repeats, ............
  • #17,094
  • Edited 6:29am Jan 29, 2015 6:12am | Edited 6:29am
Yeah. If it stays this high by the NY session time, there's a good chance it'll move up. Unfortunately, I've pretty much already closed my shorts when it refused to go below 178 on several occasions.

I wonder if we will ever retest 177.70/80; it keeps getting caught up by the previous 178 support.

USD/JPY managed to touch its hourly 117.20 support, but maybe the geppy had to rise because there was no more room for the usd/jpy to fall down with.

Edit: It seems like every time an ascending triangle from 175.70 is invalidated, we simply move to another one. It's quite funny when you look at it form the hourly chart; he price movements seem to follow that to a tee. So while we might test 178 once more (if 179 holds as resistance), I can't say with certainty as to whether 177.80/70 will be touched.
  • #17,095
  • Jan 29, 2015 6:30am Jan 29, 2015 6:30am
Quoting Vermillion
Yeah. If it stays this high by the NY session time, there's a good chance it'll move up. Unfortunately, I've pretty much already closed my shorts when it refused to go below 178 on several occasions. I wonder if we will ever retest 177.70/80; it keeps getting caught up by the previous 178 support. USD/JPY managed to touch its hourly 117.20 support, but maybe the geppy had to rise because there was no more room for the usd/jpy to fall down with.
Yeah, Uj was getting heavily compressed - and I kept watching GU support, which it touched to the pip. UJ above 118.1 and in the climb. Now to see if it can continue up.
  • #17,096
  • Jan 29, 2015 6:40am Jan 29, 2015 6:40am
Long again - let's see if support will hold.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...0&d=1422535146
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #17,097
  • Jan 29, 2015 6:40am Jan 29, 2015 6:40am
Quoting Mpt
{quote} Yeah, Uj was getting heavily compressed - and I kept watching GU support, which it touched to the pip. UJ above 118.1 and in the climb. Now to see if it can continue up.
Not right now. We've only got 50 minutes until unemployment claims comes up, so if anything, we're going to see a slight movement down for now. But I don't know whether the USD will follow in the direction of the sentiment of the unemployment claims, or simply end up ignoring it.
  • #17,098
  • Jan 29, 2015 6:45am Jan 29, 2015 6:45am
Quoting Mpt
{quote} Yeah, Uj was getting heavily compressed - and I kept watching GU support, which it touched to the pip. UJ above 118.1 and in the climb. Now to see if it can continue up.
GU support at 1.5117?
used to be undecided but nowadays can't make my mind up
  • #17,099
  • Jan 29, 2015 6:49am Jan 29, 2015 6:49am
Quoting mrcreosote
{quote} GU support at 1.5117?
1.5108 is what I had and it stopped at 1.5109- so I guess it must have some value - for now at least.

But then the way i determine S R is, well, different to any other way I've seen
  • #17,100
  • Jan 29, 2015 6:58am Jan 29, 2015 6:58am
Quoting Mpt
{quote} 1.5108 is what I had and it stopped at 1.5109- so I guess it must have some value - for now at least. But then the way i determine S R is, well, different to any other way I've seen
yes the wicks in that area were interesting as well....
lol, pray tell more about your S&R methodology.....
used to be undecided but nowadays can't make my mind up
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