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AUD/USD

  • #88,681
  • Jan 27, 2015 10:30pm Jan 27, 2015 10:30pm
Quoting lynex
any idea what is the over reaction?
I think people mis-reading or not understanding the trimmed CPI. A few vocal media economists have been tipping rate cut next week, I think this will see them quieten down at least for a month now anyway. This will start to have people keeping an eye out for an asset bubble as buying pressure is obviously still in the economy. The bulk of the population is largely ignoring the warning signs and continuing to spend, the RBA is not going to want to keep encouraging this. Having said that, I think a rate rise is still a way off, but the sooner people realise they may have bottomed out the better. I think you would still be looking short longer term, based more on USD strength than anything else.
  • #88,682
  • Jan 27, 2015 10:33pm Jan 27, 2015 10:33pm
Bullish flag on 1H and 15M
  • #88,683
  • Jan 28, 2015 2:55pm Jan 28, 2015 2:55pm
I hope someone shorted this yesterday and made money. I changed my mind about shorting it and end up shorting AUDCAD instead (thinking that would have been less risky), and only made a few pips.
  • #88,684
  • Jan 28, 2015 4:59pm Jan 28, 2015 4:59pm
Quoting mostafa54
aud usd http://analysis2014.blogspot.com/
What about the interest rate?
It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #88,685
  • Jan 28, 2015 5:02pm Jan 28, 2015 5:02pm
Quoting samgribbles
{quote} Ken A - does this mean you are of the view that those buying on the news are in error? For my mind, even trimmed mean, this is consistent with expectations, and does not change the general view that the RBA will not cut rates in Feb. Some in the press may speculate that a rate cut is coming, but the FX market is not pricing this in. AUD to continue down trend, and I took this opportunity to short again at 80.
AFTER 18 months of keeping its official interest rate unchanged, the Reserve Bank will almost certainly cut the rate at its first meeting back for the year next Tuesday.

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/business...-1227200091095
It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #88,686
  • Jan 28, 2015 5:36pm Jan 28, 2015 5:36pm
Quoting Erebus
{quote} AFTER 18 months of keeping its official interest rate unchanged, the Reserve Bank will almost certainly cut the rate at its first meeting back for the year next Tuesday. http://www.heraldsun.com.au/business...-1227200091095
I think this is a better indication than the herald sun: http://www.asx.com.au/prices/targetratetracker.htm

indicates only a 16% likelihood of rate cut next week

http://www.asx.com.au/data/trt/ib_ex...urve_graph.pdf - indicates that rate cut should happen in May at latest.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #88,687
  • Jan 28, 2015 6:06pm Jan 28, 2015 6:06pm
Hello traders,

I am new in this site. When I read the last posts can I get some tips about AUDUSD pair? If I must do short or long trades.

Thanks
  • #88,688
  • Jan 28, 2015 8:12pm Jan 28, 2015 8:12pm
Quoting dab
{quote} I think this is a better indication than the herald sun: http://www.asx.com.au/prices/targetratetracker.htm indicates only a 16% likelihood of rate cut next week http://www.asx.com.au/data/trt/ib_ex...urve_graph.pdf - indicates that rate cut should happen in May at latest.
Thanks for the links, so you think it is media beat up or the ASX data doesn't allow for human emotion?

It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #88,689
  • Jan 28, 2015 9:09pm Jan 28, 2015 9:09pm
Quoting Erebus
{quote} Thanks for the links, so you think it is media beat up or the ASX data doesn't allow for human emotion?
You're welcome. Whilst largely a media beat up (wanting to sell stories) it can also be good to listen to opposing opinions and weigh them for anything of value.

ASX data is based on ASX 30 Day Interbank Cash Rate Futures which my understanding of would be based on human emotion / expectation. I just find it a handy means of quantifying expectation as opposed to subjective articles. My own opinion would be that those trading futures are probably/possibly more informed than the spot market where there are lots of us little traders.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #88,690
  • Jan 28, 2015 10:03pm Jan 28, 2015 10:03pm
There are not enough indicators (CPI, unemployment, etc) lining up to support another rate cut. Still top of the RBA's wish list is a lower AUD, and that is happening now without a rate cut, so why cut? My view is the RBA will talk the AUD down rather than force is down with a cut
  • #88,691
  • Jan 28, 2015 10:20pm Jan 28, 2015 10:20pm
Quoting samgribbles
There are not enough indicators (CPI, unemployment, etc) lining up to support another rate cut. Still top of the RBA's wish list is a lower AUD, and that is happening now without a rate cut, so why cut? My view is the RBA will talk the AUD down rather than force is down with a cut
Bond markets have priced a 50bp drop within next 2 years. I reckon RBA will sit on the fence a little longer and keep the powder dry for when they really need it. AUD to hover in 7700 to 8100 range for now.
  • #88,692
  • Jan 28, 2015 10:44pm Jan 28, 2015 10:44pm
Quoting samgribbles
There are not enough indicators (CPI, unemployment, etc) lining up to support another rate cut. Still top of the RBA's wish list is a lower AUD, and that is happening now without a rate cut, so why cut? My view is the RBA will talk the AUD down rather than force is down with a cut
I agree too that this might be the scenario. Everybody wants their currency to be lower than the other, its the race to the bottom.

Both technically and fundamentally AUDUSD is bearish. There are no reason or indication of a reversal, the overall trend remains to the downside. The rejection at 0.8025 yesterday reinforce this point.
The true fact is market doesn't care, risk mgt is important.
  • #88,693
  • Jan 28, 2015 10:51pm Jan 28, 2015 10:51pm
Can't go down forever

http://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/int...2015/01/26/03/
It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #88,694
  • Jan 28, 2015 10:56pm Jan 28, 2015 10:56pm
Quoting samgribbles
There are not enough indicators (CPI, unemployment, etc) lining up to support another rate cut. Still top of the RBA's wish list is a lower AUD, and that is happening now without a rate cut, so why cut? My view is the RBA will talk the AUD down rather than force is down with a cut
That pretty much says it.
Some are constantly calling a lowering, particularly Bill Evans (Westpac), others have factored in no change for the year, for example Craig James ( CBA) . I would tend to agree with the latter.Whilst commodity prices continue to fall and USD strengthens, the RBA will probably just continue to jawbone it down. The last few rate cuts have in effect done nothing anyway, it wasn't until commodities and USD started to move that the AUD weakened. It will depend a bit on the Fed, if they move on rates sooner rather than later RBA won't need to do anything. It has become a bit of a false war anyway, as SSM says, it's a race, if everyone makes the same move nothing happens.
  • #88,695
  • Jan 28, 2015 11:07pm Jan 28, 2015 11:07pm
[quote=Erebus;8031195]Can't go down forever http://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/int...2015/01/26/03/[/quote
Some valid points, although if you look at the left hand side of the chart she is talking on it totally disproves the theory she is putting forward. As we know, markets do what markets do, we try and look at most likely probabilities, but sometimes new rules are written. Periods in one direction can extend. Have a look at this EUR chart to see how far a monthly trend can go, far more than the 8-10 she is talking of.

EURUSDFXFMonthly.png
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Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDFXFMonthly.png Size: 86 KB
  • #88,696
  • Jan 28, 2015 11:41pm Jan 28, 2015 11:41pm
Here Are Bank Of America Merrill Lynch's 10 Themes For The Australian Economy In 2015
http://www.businessinsider.com.au/he...in-2015-2015-1
  • #88,697
  • Jan 29, 2015 1:16am Jan 29, 2015 1:16am
Would it be good for a long?
Attached Image
  • #88,698
  • Jan 29, 2015 1:27am Jan 29, 2015 1:27am
Quoting diegosilva
Would it be good for a long? {image}

0.7835-40 is good place for long.
  • #88,699
  • Jan 29, 2015 2:04am Jan 29, 2015 2:04am
Quoting roger44
Here Are Bank Of America Merrill Lynch's 10 Themes For The Australian Economy In 2015 http://www.businessinsider.com.au/he...in-2015-2015-1
Good article, Saul Easlake has been pretty well on the money for a lot of years. At this stage other factors are doing the job for RBA. People need to get over the interest rate thing and realise that there are a whole lot of factors that can affect the dollar more directly than falsely adjusting rates, which in the scheme of things doesn't impact anywhere the number of dollars that it is generally perceived to.
  • #88,700
  • Jan 29, 2015 2:09am Jan 29, 2015 2:09am
Quoting diegosilva
Would it be good for a long? {image}
Brave call for a long here. IF the RBA does drop rates, look for a breakout south, if they hold them steady there may be a small retracement for a few pips, not sure if it will use the whole channel this time. Might be a prudent time to spectate for a few days.
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