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  • #35,141
  • Jan 26, 2015 6:13pm Jan 26, 2015 6:13pm
However, a short term rebound is likely based on AU D1 DBXLite below.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 012615-D-AU.PNG Size: 50 KB
daddybearforex. com
  • #35,142
  • Jan 26, 2015 6:23pm Jan 26, 2015 6:23pm
As such, the strategy of AU trading is to short from the top.
daddybearforex. com
  • #35,143
  • Jan 26, 2015 7:11pm Jan 26, 2015 7:11pm
If interested in DBXLite assisted trading,
please visit DBX Trading System - The Way The Winners Trade! .
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=512495
daddybearforex. com
  • #35,144
  • Jan 27, 2015 7:35am Jan 27, 2015 7:35am
I expect the technicals to catch-up soon


"The outlook for the year will remain challenging. Foreign exchange will reduce fiscal 2015 sales by 5% and net earnings by 12%, or at least $1.4 billion after tax. We have and will continue to offset as much of this currency impact as we can through productivity driven cost savings. And we will continue to invest in our businesses, brands and product innovation, because it is the right thing to do for the mid- and long-term, while we deliver another year of strong cash returns to shareowners. We are adjusting fiscal year earnings targets accordingly"

In other words, P&G will "offset" the surge in the USD with more layoffs. So when Jack Lew said "good" he really meant "bad."
Expect many more EPS misses and warnings in the coming days and months as the year end 2015 S&P consensus target crashes and burns and as the sellside penguins are finally forced to admit what we said in November: that 2015 earnings will be lower than 2014, which in turn were lower than 2013 on a GAAP basis. Not a pretty pattern.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-27/market-wrap-futures-slide-spike-strong-dollar-earnings-disappointments-and-profit-wa
  • #35,145
  • Jan 27, 2015 8:25am Jan 27, 2015 8:25am
Quoting DaddyBear
However, a short term rebound is likely based on AU D1 DBXLite below. {image}
AU D1 DBXLite indicates a rebound is underway.
Attached Image
daddybearforex. com
  • #35,146
  • Jan 27, 2015 8:32am Jan 27, 2015 8:32am
Quoting ArtVandelay
I expect the technicals to catch-up soon "The outlook for the year will remain challenging. Foreign exchange will reduce fiscal 2015 sales by 5% and net earnings by 12%, or at least $1.4 billion after tax. We have and will continue to offset as much of this currency impact as we can through productivity driven cost savings. And we will continue to invest in our businesses, brands and product innovation, because it is the right thing to do for the mid- and long-term, while we deliver another year of strong cash returns to shareowners. We are adjusting...
Thanks for your fundamental analysis.
Not sure about your outlook of AU.
Your view was a bottom is set but now seems to me your message indicates the opposite view.

Quoting ArtVandelay
Did everyone give up on the aussie? Maybe the lack of interest in this thread indicates a bottom? My reasoning goes like this: If there is a top in place for the USD and the Euro can't go up much, then that's bullish for the AUD. BOC is cutting rates, BOE is back-peddling on rate hikes, and BOJ may not ramp QE anymore. I have a sneaking suspicion that the Fed will not raise rates. I'm sure the US companies are complaining about a strong USD. The US has a pop of 300 million compared to a global pop of 7 billion. Hence, most profits should come from overseas and a strong USD hurts sp500 companies. If sp500 companies are complaining, somebody is probably listening.
daddybearforex. com
  • #35,147
  • Edited 9:26am Jan 27, 2015 8:41am | Edited 9:26am
Quoting DaddyBear
{quote} AU D1 DBXLite indicates a rebound is underway. {image}
The second AU D1 DBXLite indicates GJ has had about 40 pips gain since last AU D1 DBXLite was posted.
This is the real proof that DBXLite is working.
daddybearforex. com
  • #35,148
  • Edited 9:26am Jan 27, 2015 8:45am | Edited 9:26am
Quoting DaddyBear
{quote} The second AU D1 DBXLite indicates GJ has had about 40 pips gain since last AU D1 DBXLite was posted. This is the real proof that DBXLite is working.
Although some FF members did not believe DBX is a good trading system,
the fact is DBX is working very well. This fact cannot be denied by any baseless hearsay.
Contrary to their ideology, there are different ways to "prove" that a system works.
daddybearforex. com
  • #35,149
  • Jan 27, 2015 8:57am Jan 27, 2015 8:57am
Quoting DaddyBear
{quote} Although some FF members did not believe DBX is a good trading system, the fact is DBX is working very well. This fact cannot be denied by any baseless hearsay. Contrary to their ideology, there are different ways to "prove" that a system works.
Using a live account won't prove a system works.
A system is to be used by many users. The results will vary.
In other words, some users will trade better than others even though they are using the same system.
This was the reason why I mentioned a system cannot be proved but an EA is another story.
daddybearforex. com
  • #35,150
  • Jan 27, 2015 9:16am Jan 27, 2015 9:16am
A fundamental analysis usually is subjective.
On the other hand, a technical analysis is more objective.
This is why a projection based on the technical analysis is more reliable most of the times.
daddybearforex. com
  • #35,151
  • Jan 27, 2015 9:42am Jan 27, 2015 9:42am
AU M30 DBXLite indicates the rebound is resuming.
Attached Image
daddybearforex. com
  • #35,152
  • Jan 27, 2015 10:48am Jan 27, 2015 10:48am
Quoting DaddyBear
DBXLite can be applied to the trading of FX pairs, commodity and SPX as well. XAU H4 DBXLite GREEN Trending Index indicates GOLD is in an upswing now. {image}
The followup of XAU H4 DBXLite
This is another solid "proof" that DBXLite works on commodity as well!

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1422377135
daddybearforex. com
  • #35,153
  • Jan 28, 2015 5:07am Jan 28, 2015 5:07am
Quoting DaddyBear
{quote} Thanks for your fundamental analysis. Not sure about your outlook of AU. Your view was a bottom is set but now seems to me your message indicates the opposite view. {quote}
No no, my view is that there will be political pressure by the world's most powerful companies to weaken the USD. Much of the AUD weakness is attributed to USD strength and the view that the RBA will cut rates. Glenn Stevens has said he wants the currency priced about where it is (75 ish) and he has said he expects inflation to run the 2-3% range for the next couple years.

"With spare capacity in labour and product markets likely to weigh on domestic inflationary pressures for some time, the inflation outlook remained consistent with the target of 2 to 3 per cent, notwithstanding some temporary upward pressure from the recent depreciation of the exchange rate." http://www.rba.gov.au/monetary-policy/rba-board-minutes/2014/02122014.html

At the time, AUD was above 85. Now it's considerably lower and further lowers the probability of a rate cut.

"On the information available, the Board judged that the current stance of monetary policy continued to be appropriate for fostering sustainable growth in demand and inflation outcomes consistent with the target. Members considered that the most prudent course was likely to be a period of stability in interest rates."

Australia hasn't had a recession in nearly a quarter of a century while the rest of the world can't seem to stay out of recessions. If there is any country that should be a model of monetary policy, it should be Australia. Why would anyone sell the AUD against the cesspool that is Europe?
  • #35,154
  • Jan 28, 2015 5:43am Jan 28, 2015 5:43am
Furthering my point:

Hounded by Evil Dollar & Collapsed Commodity Prices, Corporate America Clamors for Total Currency War http://wolfstreet.com/2015/01/28/hounded-by-evil-dollar-collapsed-commodity-prices-corporate-america-clamors-for-total-currency-war/

There are some pretty big companies on that page. Even Apple is complaining:

"On a profitability standpoint, our hedging program partially mitigated the impact from the volatility in currencies. As we look forward, and we look into particularly the March quarter, the foreign exchange headwinds will be stronger in Q2 than they were in Q1 for two main reasons. The first one is the fact that the US dollar has continued to appreciate against foreign currencies during the last few weeks. And the other one is the fact that our existing hedges expire."
  • #35,155
  • Jan 28, 2015 7:57am Jan 28, 2015 7:57am
Quoting ArtVandelay
{quote} No no, my view is that there will be political pressure by the world's most powerful companies to weaken the USD. Much of the AUD weakness is attributed to USD strength and the view that the RBA will cut rates. Glenn Stevens has said he wants the currency priced about where it is (75 ish) and he has said he expects inflation to run the 2-3% range for the next couple years. "With spare capacity in labour and product markets likely to weigh on domestic inflationary pressures for some time, the inflation outlook remained consistent with the...
Do you think those big companies can move the USD?
The USD is moved by the market not by a few companies.
The strength of the USD has been due to the stronger economy compared to other major economies.
daddybearforex. com
  • #35,156
  • Edited 8:37am Jan 28, 2015 8:15am | Edited 8:37am
Quoting turnip15
{quote} Do you need special anti-glare and bull-excrement resistant spectacles to read DB's drivel (bet I get banned now -soon he will be talking to himself and a small group of the afflicted)
http://assets.forexfactory.net/nfs/c...tar18121_5.gif
Did you talk to yourself?
What is your problem?
I have nothing to do with you.
Why are you so obsessed with a distorted mindset?
Does bashing others make you happy?
How old are you now?
Are you an old woman who likes gossips?
Do you live in a mental hospital?
Are you unable to post anything a little bit more constructive than your nonsense?
Do you have nothing to do all day long?
How about come to clean up my toilet?

http://assets.forexfactory.net/nfs/c...ic168114_3.gif
daddybearforex. com
  • #35,157
  • Jan 28, 2015 8:49am Jan 28, 2015 8:49am
Quoting ArtVandelay
Furthering my point: Hounded by Evil Dollar & Collapsed Commodity Prices, Corporate America Clamors for Total Currency War http://wolfstreet.com/2015/01/28/hounded-by-evil-dollar-collapsed-commodity-prices-corporate-america-clamors-for-total-currency-war/ There are some pretty big companies on that page. Even Apple is complaining: "On a profitability standpoint, our hedging program partially mitigated the impact from the volatility in currencies. As we look forward, and we look into particularly the March quarter, the foreign exchange...
Is it possible that you post your outlook of AU in plain English with a few sentences only?
daddybearforex. com
  • #35,158
  • Jan 28, 2015 9:18am Jan 28, 2015 9:18am
Quoting DaddyBear
{quote} Do you think those big companies can move the USD? The USD is moved by the market not by a few companies. The strength of the USD has been due to the stronger economy compared to other major economies.
I think they can put pressure on those who CAN move the USD. Also, If the strongest companies in the US are hurting due to the strong USD, then won't that mean they won't be making as much profit and the relative bias will be tilted to those with weaker currencies?
  • #35,159
  • Jan 28, 2015 9:24am Jan 28, 2015 9:24am
Quoting DaddyBear
{quote} Is it possible that you post your outlook of AU in plain English with a few sentences only?
It is possible, but didn't you say...

Quoting DaddyBear
This thread is mainly focusing on Aussie trading. Whether you are bulls, bears or something in between, please feel at home here. This thread is based on the principle of the freedom of speech.
I figured there would be more discussion about the aussie. What is the point of this thread if we're to say as little as possible?
  • #35,160
  • Jan 28, 2015 11:08am Jan 28, 2015 11:08am
Quoting ArtVandelay
{quote} I think they can put pressure on those who CAN move the USD. Also, If the strongest companies in the US are hurting due to the strong USD, then won't that mean they won't be making as much profit and the relative bias will be tilted to those with weaker currencies?
May be.
Bear in mind, the Fed is independent from the interventions by any companies.
daddybearforex. com
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