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Geppy's Geppy Thread (GBP/JPY)

  • #17,061
  • Jan 27, 2015 6:13pm Jan 27, 2015 6:13pm
Hopefully today's the day when it proves it can get up (and it's not in a broader/deeper correction)
  • #17,062
  • Jan 27, 2015 6:35pm Jan 27, 2015 6:35pm
Quoting Mpt
Hopefully today's the day when it proves it can get up (and it's not in a broader/deeper correction)
Possibly. But I get the feeling that it'll try to retest the lower areas at least before moving back up; that seems to be the trend for the past 36 hours.

Specifically, I'm eyeing the area around 178.20 +/- 30 pips (177.90~178.50), with the center value being a swing area. If it bounces back up significantly, I expect to see 180~180.40 before starting another intraday correction. If not.....177.20/00 is on my mark. Edit: This assumes that we're decisively break below 178.80. We've had a breach, but I can't tell yet whether it's only a a fluke/shakeout or an actual signal.

I think there's a definite possibility that we finally bottomed out on 175.70. If not, it'll be one heck of a cruel joke to those who longed since that area. Also adjusted my trading system. Let's see if this one works in the current bullish(?) market.
  • #17,063
  • Jan 27, 2015 7:05pm Jan 27, 2015 7:05pm
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} Possibly. But I get the feeling that it'll try to retest the lower areas at least before moving back up; that seems to be the trend for the past 36 hours. Specifically, I'm eyeing the area around 178.20 +/- 30 pips (177.90~178.50), with the center value being a swing area. If it bounces back up significantly, I expect to see 180~180.40 before starting another intraday correction. If not.....177.20/00 is on my mark. Edit: This assumes that we're decisively break below 178.80. We've had a breach, but I can't tell yet whether it's only a a...
And with respect to your comment about the cruel joke, if it has not bottomed, the next low might be only a few pips below the prior.

Uj's obviously mucking around in the middle of what i still think is a large triangle. No surprises that GU broke up, but the question there remains - can get up further (as in over 1.53 or as far as 1.550 ) or is it peaking in its own correction?

I guess it's all irrelevant though, as GJ remains, plus or minus a few. The weekly candle still looks robust - if you look at anything lower all you see is a mess - but on the daily that mess MIGHT be drawing a reversal pattern in the shape of a diamond. Most such reversals don't usually have a double bottom structure, but I vaguely recall one in Jan 2012 as it started the climb to 133. So anything's possible right now.
  • #17,064
  • Jan 27, 2015 8:29pm Jan 27, 2015 8:29pm
Key point right now is 179. If price stays above 179, look for retest of previous daily high and beyond. If price falls below 179, we resume the downward trendzone shown on the 15 min chart, leading to another retest of 178.80, with a error margin of ten or so pips.

After that is further moment to previous resistance/support for each respective cases.
  • #17,065
  • Jan 27, 2015 10:18pm Jan 27, 2015 10:18pm
We have an ascending triangle on the 30min chart, resistance at 179.30 +/- 10 pips. It's going to blow soon; the only question being up or down.
  • #17,066
  • Edited 10:54pm Jan 27, 2015 10:27pm | Edited 10:54pm
It's a bleak wet afternoon here. The only action is the grass growing - and that's moving faster than this pair.

On a positive note, a daily candle has now closed and a new one (thus far) has opened inside the daily 'cloud' - albeit by about 30 pips. At the same time, a few hours ago the daily gann flipped, suggesting we sit just just above support and upside is possible. These daily 'indicators' ignore 4hr or lower tf variances. Unfortunately , we also sit just below good weekly resistance.

FWIW, the gann was a simple indicator that was the big thing on GJ threads up until about three or four years ago.
  • #17,067
  • Jan 27, 2015 10:45pm Jan 27, 2015 10:45pm
Quoting Mpt
It's a bleak wet afternoon here. The only action is the grass growing - and that's moving faster than this pair.
I mean relatively speaking. I consider this to be "sooner" than the previous hours on this pair.
  • #17,068
  • Jan 27, 2015 10:59pm Jan 27, 2015 10:59pm
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} I mean relatively speaking. I consider this to be "sooner" than the previous hours on this pair.
Lets hope so. I'm sure we'll have the usual silly moves in about 2 hours, but it would be nice if it could get up.
  • #17,069
  • Jan 27, 2015 11:25pm Jan 27, 2015 11:25pm
I may well be wrong looking at the 4h but Im trying a small long 179.05 SL 178.50.
  • #17,070
  • Jan 28, 2015 12:12am Jan 28, 2015 12:12am
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} I mean relatively speaking. I consider this to be "sooner" than the previous hours on this pair.
Retesting trend support line. Let's see if it bounces or falls down.
  • #17,071
  • Jan 28, 2015 3:08am Jan 28, 2015 3:08am
​It hasn't failed yet, but it has feeling of failing a little further up. As per my chart of a few hours ago. Somewhat disappointing.
  • #17,072
  • Jan 28, 2015 3:18am Jan 28, 2015 3:18am
Quoting Mpt
​It hasn't failed yet, but it has feeling of failing a little further up. As per my chart of a few hours ago. Somewhat disappointing.
There was a universal pulldown on the USD in all currency pairs 2-3 hours ago. I dunno what caused it, but it was enough to derail the usual markets.
  • #17,073
  • Jan 28, 2015 3:22am Jan 28, 2015 3:22am
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} There was a universal pulldown on the USD in all currency pairs 2-3 hours ago. I dunno what caused it, but it was enough to derail the usual markets.
The Yen continues to be the problem. The bloody Pound stays up. Maybe one day the USD JPY won't just be the USD USD.
  • #17,074
  • Edited 3:50am Jan 28, 2015 3:27am | Edited 3:50am
looking at the resistance, if we can clear and close over 179.6 then 180.6/7 we might have a chance. Until then, ? Well, until then I think it has a chance. A small chance. The weekly is still pushing up.
  • #17,075
  • Edited 4:11am Jan 28, 2015 4:00am | Edited 4:11am
Price hits last high (179.325)= current bearish formation invalidated. Otherwise, shorting is the name of the game if we edge below 178.60.

178.20/177.90 = initial place to take partials/TP and wait to further action. If price edges lower, 177.20/00 is next. Final target is 176/175.70.

FOMC has a good chance of derailing whatever strategy put into place.
  • #17,076
  • Jan 28, 2015 4:05am Jan 28, 2015 4:05am
I was just about to write .... It is NOT a short. yet. It remains a frustrating long. At the moment it's a little like shorting at 174.6 a few weeks ago. It looked for all the world like a short.

Recommendation - wait. Just for a while.
  • #17,077
  • Jan 28, 2015 4:18am Jan 28, 2015 4:18am
Quoting Mpt
I was just about to write .... It is NOT a short. yet. It remains a frustrating long. At the moment it's a little like shorting at 174.6 a few weeks ago. It looked for all the world like a short. Recommendation - wait. Just for a while.
We'll see how it reacts around 178.70/60. Like I said, if we do edge below that, we'll likely see the next support somewhere around 178.20. The operative word being "if". I'm also worried but the previous bullish formation that's been slightly rejected. We may just jump right back into the ascending triangle, or it could be an actual breakdown.

I think the overlap hours between London and New York will clear things up. MM always make a move around that time.

NOTE: IF, and IF we do see movements encouraging further bearish action, then how the hell do we plan for FOMC? If we maintain bullish formation, the FOMC (at least for me) will be easier to plan out. But if the news is all good and well for the dollar while we try to head down......

*head explodes*
  • #17,078
  • Jan 28, 2015 4:45am Jan 28, 2015 4:45am
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} We'll see how it reacts around 178.70/60. Like I said, if we do edge below that, we'll likely see the next support somewhere around 178.20. The operative word being "if". I'm also worried but the previous bullish formation that's been slightly rejected. We may just jump right back into the ascending triangle, or it could be an actual breakdown. I think the overlap hours between London and New York will clear things up. MM always make a move around that time. NOTE: IF, and IF we do see movements encouraging further bearish action, then how...
These set-ups are the ones that test you the most. One thing to learn here is to wait. Should it fail, it will be obvious ( like 3 4hr candles that are red) . It ain't gunna collapse in one go. If you miss the top, so be it. Otherwise, just watch. If it's going to get bullish, there will be hints. For now, it holds. just
  • #17,079
  • Edited 8:31pm Jan 28, 2015 5:25pm | Edited 8:31pm
This may well be the Yen's last chance to turn (117.40). If so, GJ 179 then 180 . Otherwise, this downtrend resumes , probably below the previous low.
  • #17,080
  • Jan 28, 2015 8:20pm Jan 28, 2015 8:20pm
Hopefully, this bullish thrust will get to at least 180. At around 181.5/182, GJ is back again. FWIW, the possible reversal pattern I wrote about earlier suggested at least 180, but possibly 182 ish (height of pattern appled to breakout retest. Pattern height 460 pips. Retest was at 177.6.

Maybe it works that way ... maybe it doesn't.

At least it's not going down.
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