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Help Me Establish The GbpUsd After Dinner Club 40 replies

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The Club!

  • #17,341
  • Jan 26, 2015 1:23pm Jan 26, 2015 1:23pm
greed at its best

this morning the FF shorts on EU had been a book-profit of over 54%

look where they are now

that is one of the reasons I am about to spit when I read the EU thread lately with some people ridiculing counter-trades, advertising trend-following and fundamental analysis
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  • #17,342
  • Jan 26, 2015 1:27pm Jan 26, 2015 1:27pm
Quoting janpec1000
Looks like Gatorinla was right again, EURAUD gona go up 4300 seems to be tested soon. EUR quite strong today, regardless of USD rise. 2890 looks nice short for EU.

do you really mean 2890, or typo?
  • #17,343
  • Jan 26, 2015 2:48pm Jan 26, 2015 2:48pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} do you really mean 2890, or typo?
I would say 1890... a reasonable target.

However last low still possible to be taken before true reversal, look like tomorrow will be violent.
  • #17,344
  • Jan 26, 2015 3:08pm Jan 26, 2015 3:08pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} do you really mean 2890, or typo?
Sory ye typo, as andexQ said, 1890.

We bounced there for 20 but weak bounce. What gives red alert is shorting proportion of FF sentiment, its getting close to 70%, and in terms of lots its actually in very extreme, so it all points we could get high break tomorrow and up. Considering chart it absolutely confirms this view as solid option:
http://prntscr.com/5xfv75

At same time dollar is hitting very important supply against CHF which should chip in to that view.

Damn need to trade UCAD tomorrow more, had no motivation for trading today, UCAD should be further climbing on rate cut weakness.
  • #17,345
  • Jan 27, 2015 3:15am Jan 27, 2015 3:15am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Sory ye typo, as andexQ said, 1890. We bounced there for 20 but weak bounce. What gives red alert is shorting proportion of FF sentiment, its getting close to 70%, and in terms of lots its actually in very extreme, so it all points we could get high break tomorrow and up. Considering chart it absolutely confirms this view as solid option: http://prntscr.com/5xfv75 At same time dollar is hitting very important supply against CHF which should chip in to that view. Damn need to trade UCAD tomorrow more, had no motivation for tradinghttp://cdncache-a.akamaihd.net/items...rrow-10x10.png...
Yep that worked well. EU broke higher. Shorts have a bit decreased from sentiment, making better longer term shorts better chances now.
  • #17,346
  • Jan 27, 2015 7:26am Jan 27, 2015 7:26am
http://ewminteractive.com/bitcoin-and-broken-dreams/

Bitcoin and broken dreams
  • #17,347
  • Jan 27, 2015 9:47am Jan 27, 2015 9:47am
Quoting infinitus
http://ewminteractive.com/bitcoin-and-broken-dreams/ Bitcoin and broken dreams
Meanwhile my mining rig sits in room, quiet for almost a year already

Regarding article and broken dreams, that was probably written by someone who doesnt follow what is going in crypto world, nor understands relation of long term backing vs speculation and price corelation in terms of movement. Fundamentally Bitcoin is better than it was before ever, considering chain of all coins put together and ecosystem it carrys trough them (credit cards, debt systems, loan system, Octopus possiblity, derivates etc), price can go down a lot, and rebound later, this is 80% correction atm, many coins had much more and have came back pushing higher. Btw those arent words of someone who is grabbing onto shitload of BTC, its as objective as it can be.
No crypto coin is guaranteed to exist, what is there to stay is blockchain, and thats what will carry trough more coins. If you catapult Bitcoin you open space for many new ones that would explode in price and repeat cycle. You cant undo miracle of blockchain.
Bad side is that technology is new and still very weak against hacking attacks. Every time major exhange is hacked much of wealth is destroyed trough it.

Meanwhile GU hitting resistance and FF shorts are poping almost trough 70%. If breaks would be nice to start longing it and using resistance as support.
  • #17,348
  • Jan 27, 2015 11:30am Jan 27, 2015 11:30am
Infin- was directed here by another member in search of a study you may have posted regarding the % of traders that fail. Would you happen to have a shortcut? I'm looking, but you might be able to save me time. Or anyone else that sees it

Thanks

subbed too- seems I've been missing out on a good thread
  • #17,349
  • Jan 27, 2015 12:13pm Jan 27, 2015 12:13pm
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Meanwhile my mining rig sits in room, quiet for almost a year already Regarding article and broken dreams, that was probably written by someone who doesnt follow what is going in crypto world, nor understands relation of long term backing vs speculation and price corelation in terms of movement. Fundamentally Bitcoin is better than it was before ever, considering chain of all coins put together and ecosystem it carrys trough them (credit cards, debt systems, loan system, Octopus possiblity, derivates etc), price can go down a lot, and...

Hi Jan,

I think that the article was simply referring to the Elliott Waves. Many Elliotticans, me too, have warned loud and clear when it rallied up to the highs.

When I warned in the "Bitcoin technical analysis" thread I was criticized hefty by some traders there. i can remember that I suggested not to buy before price hit 150 or so.
  • #17,350
  • Jan 27, 2015 12:15pm Jan 27, 2015 12:15pm
Quoting Pharm0r
Infin- was directed here by another member in search of a study you may have posted regarding the % of traders that fail. Would you happen to have a shortcut? I'm looking, but you might be able to save me time. Or anyone else that sees it Thanks subbed too- seems I've been missing out on a good thread

Hi Pharm0r,

you are welcome here

Attached is a file from Citi with very interesting data.


FXCM had also published an analysis years ago. Give me some minutes......
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Retail_FX citi study 2012.pdf   1.2 MB | 496 downloads
  • #17,351
  • Jan 27, 2015 12:21pm Jan 27, 2015 12:21pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Hi Pharm0r, you are welcome here Attached is a file from Citi with very interesting data. FXCM had also published an analysis years ago. Give me some minutes...... {image}
thank you
  • #17,352
  • Jan 27, 2015 12:22pm Jan 27, 2015 12:22pm
Quoting Pharm0r
Infin- was directed here by another member in search of a study you may have posted regarding the % of traders that fail. Would you happen to have a shortcut? I'm looking, but you might be able to save me time. Or anyone else that sees it Thanks subbed too- seems I've been missing out on a good thread

found it in my old thread Shangri-La

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...05#post6060005
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf fxcm-traits-of-successful-traders-guide.pdf   2.6 MB | 1,243 downloads
  • #17,353
  • Jan 27, 2015 12:24pm Jan 27, 2015 12:24pm
Exposed! The anti-German
plot behind the ‘euro’
by Elisabeth Hellenbroich


nice background reading
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf eirv25n19-19980508_004-exposed_the_anti_german_plot_beh.pdf   384 KB | 338 downloads
  • #17,354
  • Jan 27, 2015 12:34pm Jan 27, 2015 12:34pm
UJ

https://twitter.com/mtylcnr
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  • #17,355
  • Jan 27, 2015 12:38pm Jan 27, 2015 12:38pm
http://elliott.vo.llnwd.net/o18/pdf/1501EWF.pdf

Nice analysis of Bitcoin in it
  • #17,356
  • Jan 27, 2015 12:46pm Jan 27, 2015 12:46pm
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau.../picture-5.jpg
Greece's New FinMin Explains "This Is What Happens When You Humiliate A Nation & Give It No Hope"

  • #17,357
  • Jan 27, 2015 12:52pm Jan 27, 2015 12:52pm
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau.../picture-5.jpg
Austrian "Freedom" Party Demands Bailout For Swiss Franc Speculators (From "Monstrous Monetary Policy")




as we talked about already: it seems to pay to be a relentless debtor
  • #17,358
  • Jan 27, 2015 12:59pm Jan 27, 2015 12:59pm
Quoting infinitus
{image} Greece's New FinMin Explains "This Is What Happens When You Humiliate A Nation & Give It No Hope"
WowVaroufakis became fin min of Greece? Looks like i was too bear on new goverment, afterall there seem to be hope for something. Lets see Keiser and Varo had great ideas long before they were famous or in goverment as in one case, lets see how well could/will he implement it now. Might be interesting to see what he pulls out. One thing is for sure, going further bear on Greece bonds is a thing to happen hah.
  • #17,359
  • Jan 27, 2015 4:56pm Jan 27, 2015 4:56pm
Infinitus i was wrong last time i contacted you regarding FF sentiment. Winning percentage is much higher. It makes whole concept of 70% geared direction much less reliable as signal, becouse actually retailers are more time correct than wrong, that ofcourse only of that study on FF sentiment. This study is not very reliable becouse it only counts in extremes, but in general thats only reliable signal fron any sentiment indicator anyways.

Here is new stuff:

Term for being "correct" in this analysis i used was used as DD over 150-200 pips as wrong positioning.
http://prntscr.com/5xvzls
http://prntscr.com/5xw2oy
http://prntscr.com/5xw4xl
http://prntscr.com/5xw7dy
http://prntscr.com/5xwar4
http://prntscr.com/5xwd12
http://prntscr.com/5xwetb
http://prntscr.com/5xwhw2

Retailers are on avarage 63% correct acording to FF sentiment , mind however that data only counts for extremes of positioning 70% and above in one direction.
  • #17,360
  • Jan 27, 2015 9:01pm Jan 27, 2015 9:01pm
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Meanwhile my mining rig sits in room, quiet for almost a year already Regarding article and broken dreams, that was probably written by someone who doesnt follow what is going in crypto world, nor understands relation of long term backing vs speculation and price corelation in terms of movement. Fundamentally Bitcoin is better than it was before ever, considering chain of all coins put together and ecosystem it carrys trough them (credit cards, debt systems, loan system, Octopus possiblity, derivates etc), price can go down a lot, and...
Thx a lot man.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
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