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Dragon Riders GBP/JPY

  • #2,961
  • Jan 26, 2015 11:00am Jan 26, 2015 11:00am
Hope everyone was long before London.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #2,962
  • Jan 26, 2015 11:03am Jan 26, 2015 11:03am
Quoting Temujin
Hope everyone was long before London.

Not long before, but I closed by shorts early and added longs. Still didn't get as much as I should have, but that's my fault for shorting prior.

Oh, and people should look at the eur/chf; it's being completely bought out to extremely overbought levels by the SNB intervention. I don't even know if it will drop below 1.01 for the foreseeable time being.
  • #2,963
  • Jan 26, 2015 11:16am Jan 26, 2015 11:16am
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} Not long before, but I closed by shorts early and added longs. Still didn't get as much as I should have, but that's my fault for shorting prior. Oh, and people should look at the eur/chf; it's being completely bought out to extremely overbought levels by the SNB intervention. I don't even know if it will drop below 1.01 for the foreseeable time being.
Awesome, good you gained from that huge move. I went long EUR/JPY, lots of pips. Syriza won Greece and of course the euro rallied. Exactly the opposite of what was supposed happen. Interesting how the strength of the Franc dropped to zero all night. Just started to shift in power a little as I'm typing.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #2,964
  • Jan 26, 2015 11:22am Jan 26, 2015 11:22am
Quoting Temujin
{quote} Interesting how the strength of the Franc dropped to zero all night. Just started to shift in power a little as I'm typing.
It's a bit complicated. There's recent news by Switzerland that the Swiss National Bank is trying to intervene and lower the strength of the swiss franc to help exporters. (swiss exports tend to be built using swiss francs but sold in euros, so eur/chf going down = bad for companies). Of course, there's no official announcement yet, but you can't really trust the SNB nowadays, can you?

But I can say this: the recent upwards movement is NOT supported by any trend or technicals, so using either of them to trade the eur/chf is not a good idea right now.

To put it more bluntly: Screw logic.
  • #2,965
  • Jan 26, 2015 1:02pm Jan 26, 2015 1:02pm
Trying a short here. SL 179.20 this seems extremely overbought and were at few important fib levels/support resistance zones. I still feel we are ranging here, and 174 area needs to be tested. Of course i'm usually wrong 85% of the time haha and knowing my luck we'll hit 182 in the next 24hrs.
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  • #2,966
  • Jan 26, 2015 2:11pm Jan 26, 2015 2:11pm
Quoting thegmann
Trying a short here. SL 179.20 this seems extremely overbought and were at few important fib levels/support resistance zones. I still feel we are ranging here, and 174 area needs to be tested. Of course i'm usually wrong 85% of the time haha and knowing my luck we'll hit 182 in the next 24hrs. {image} {image}
It's also possible to retest 179~179.550 before starting the corrective movement down from this bullish run. I recommend adjusting SL AT OR BEFORE 179, since 179 will be a point of contention for bears & bulls.

And if you want to see overbought, check out the 30min and 1hr chart for the eur/chf. MASSIVE buying that still doesn't seem to be over.

I'm leaning 55:45, 60:40 in favor of hitting 179/179.50 before going down.
  • #2,967
  • Jan 26, 2015 5:47pm Jan 26, 2015 5:47pm
Lovely location for a sell in early Sydney and Tokyo....178.95......the three pushes to take, even
  • #2,968
  • Jan 26, 2015 6:13pm Jan 26, 2015 6:13pm
Quoting Gbp/jpy
Lovely location for a sell in early Sydney and Tokyo....178.95......the three pushes to take, even
OK, that's what makes a market( buyers & sellers )
You go ahead and sell this rally and I'll ride it till 187.25
  • #2,969
  • Jan 26, 2015 6:21pm Jan 26, 2015 6:21pm
Quoting Ironman777
{quote} OK, that's what makes a market( buyers & sellers ) You go ahead and sell this rally and I'll ride it till 187.25
240 pips below the years high water mark........we think the same there!
  • #2,970
  • Jan 26, 2015 8:44pm Jan 26, 2015 8:44pm
long at 178.400 TP 179.260 SL 178.190 (80-90 pips TP, 20SL) 4R:R
Probably the worlds best currency trader.
  • #2,971
  • Jan 26, 2015 10:06pm Jan 26, 2015 10:06pm
Quoting Ironman777
{quote} OK, that's what makes a market( buyers & sellers ) You go ahead and sell this rally and I'll ride it till 187.25
If you going to 187 might as well take it to 195.
  • #2,972
  • Jan 26, 2015 10:09pm Jan 26, 2015 10:09pm
Quoting IveGotQuads
{quote} If you going to 187 might as well take it to 195.
Lol, that'll take at least the better part of a month. Much better to ride the current trend.
  • #2,973
  • Jan 26, 2015 10:25pm Jan 26, 2015 10:25pm
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} Lol, that'll take at least the better part of a month. Much better to ride the current trend.
so, around 192.xx or so, it should stall for months.....but I hope not. Last time it was through here, it took a year to get past 191.50....on the way up to 251.11
  • #2,974
  • Edited 11:33pm Jan 26, 2015 10:50pm | Edited 11:33pm
Price action is very weird around 178.355~178.60.

I'm probably going to close all positions soon and just wait for a more actionable opportunity. This is just crazy.

Does anyone else think the price movements are a bit weird right now (for the past hour or two)?

Update: We rejected 178.50/60....again. I hope we're able to make some headway, bull or bear, before the news update comes for the U.K.
  • #2,975
  • Jan 27, 2015 1:22am Jan 27, 2015 1:22am
Quoting Vermillion
Price action is very weird around 178.355~178.60. I'm probably going to close all positions soon and just wait for a more actionable opportunity. This is just crazy. Does anyone else think the price movements are a bit weird right now (for the past hour or two)? Update: We rejected 178.50/60....again. I hope we're able to make some headway, bull or bear, before the news update comes for the U.K.
Quite an amazing game these black boxes play. Short from late Tokyo at 178.60. This is a very Risk-Off environment now with Syriza in power and the BOJ months from any new stimulus package. This time I think it will bust through the 220 EMA line on the daily chart. 60 pips so far.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #2,976
  • Jan 27, 2015 1:28am Jan 27, 2015 1:28am
Quoting Temujin
{quote} Quite an amazing game these black boxes play. Short from late Tokyo at 178.60. This is a very Risk-Off environment now with Syriza in power and the BOJ months from any new stimulus package. This time I think it will bust through the 220 EMA line on the daily chart. 60 pips so far.
Could be, Yen is finding some demand over the board.
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #2,977
  • Jan 27, 2015 1:38am Jan 27, 2015 1:38am
Quoting Temujin
{quote} Quite an amazing game these black boxes play. Short from late Tokyo at 178.60. This is a very Risk-Off environment now with Syriza in power and the BOJ months from any new stimulus package. This time I think it will bust through the 220 EMA line on the daily chart. 60 pips so far.
220 EMA....you referring to 175.70 area (+/- a few dozen pips)? Because that's what I got. Unfortunately, I don't use ema too often, so I could very well be wrong.

And on that note, I'm thinking about TPing right at 175.70 and loading shorts a bit higher from the bounce. Statistically, that would bring you more profit, since the only money you'd be losing (should the price go higher than your new loaded shorts) would be profit you've received prior. As long as the bonus pips from the new shorts are greater than the difference between the current price and your new shorts, you'd come out on top. And if the losses equal your bonus pips, then all you have to do is close the trade and still end up with full initial potential profit.

Is this new idea too ludicrous? It requires more downtime sitting on the charts, but I think it could work out.....I think.
  • #2,978
  • Jan 27, 2015 3:46am Jan 27, 2015 3:46am
Took early profit at 178.20 before the U.k. GDP news. GDP also happened to turn out negative and briefly went below 178,, but the charts seem to be ignoring it. All in all, it was a good move for me to leave early.
  • #2,979
  • Edited 7:01am Jan 27, 2015 4:12am | Edited 7:01am
with respect to UK data, I think price reverse yesterdays move and return to 176~176.50 area.
It would be my pleasure to have your ideas.
  • #2,980
  • Jan 27, 2015 9:23am Jan 27, 2015 9:23am
London's selling the 178.45 mark and so am I........fillin' our socks these days....
They could make it tougher if they wanted.....makes the case for a true untampered market...of which I was always doubtful....no one pullin' the strings, well every now and then, OK !!
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