ETMA_The Evolution

Patience is an important part of the Job T., i practice patience in my everyday life like driving behind an old woman who is blocking the road for 20 - 30 Minutes ( Stay with the Trend) to see where is my limits and expanding it while the other cars behind us are screaming @ me and her (Aka = Market Noise).

Ooops... N° 4, 13 is gone.
And a quick D1 live chart to show how patience could pay off.

What is quantitative easing?

chart looks all good
how can do trade with your chart please explain us

manual trading where is entry -exit and stop loss ?
thank you
advance

U should read all the thread to get a grasp of my Methodology and system as there is a lot of discretion in it.

Although i did explain it in details 3 - 4 times i will post a resume in here .

My 3 General Rules are :
1 - Cut your losses .
2 - Let your profits run .
3 - Don't ever break the Number 1 and 2 rules .

The System :
1 - Markets - I trade a portfolio of 3 Asset classes that gives me a diversification edge as a trend follower with a total of 32 Highly liquid Markets.
a - Currencies.
b - Commodities.
c - Indices.
2 - Systems - i use 3 different well backtested systems for diversification purposes and that's why you see different charts on my thread, 2 are long term and one medium term which i use also to pinpoint my entries.
3 - Entry - As you can see in some of my charts i use a self coded like donchian or turtles channel with a backtested volatility based specific settings for every market, so long is taking @ the break of the Upper channels and vice versa for the short side, although i use an entry tactics that i won't mention here.
4 - Stops - My stops are dictated by the markets volatility measured by the ATR and ADR usually risking between 1 - 1.5 % of my equity sometimes 2 % for low pip value markets to distribute evenly the dollar value of risk through different markets.
5 - Position sizing - This goes hand in hand with stop Losses and measured with volatility and pip value of every market in mind, u can start with the lowest position sizing possible and build from there as soon as u master the system, taking in consideration the lowest leverage possible as a start 1:10 - 1:20.
6 - Exits - This is the most important part of the system, exit signals are issued usually when i get a candle that broke the channel on the other way on a closing basis, here also i have some profits squeeze exit tactics that i won't reveal.

Coupled with good expectation, risk of ruin parameters and a solid PSYCHOLOGY profile gained through 13 years of trading ups and downs, these systems had served me well and protected me through a lot of black swan events like the recent SNB Chaos which instead of taking heavy losses i was able to generate profits instead as you can see from the charts posted on this thread.

I usually post 10 % of my open positions charts, i currently have 21 positions open in my portfolio 10 Long and 11 shorts and thanks God all in unrealized profit, some as much as 8R but as all trend Following Strategies i expect to give back to the Market between 1 and 2R as per my Risk management rules Depends on each of the specific instrument market volatility.

This can serve as my Mini Trading Business plan Template.

Best,
B.R.

This can serve as my Mini Trading Business plan Template.
??
​please more explain manual trading system

thank you advance
notes: i am ready to upload your template some indicators missing i am try finished after i am upload TEMPLATE

Thank you for ur interest but this is all that i can share for now, read the thread and u will have a pretty good idea of my trading style.

Best,
B.R.

Nice position to be in B. My hat is off to you Sir :-)

thank you .thank you very much.
Possible our template use intrday means lower time farm m5,15m or h1 ?
And another option make ea
so explain more entry-exit -sl-tsl-be
thank you

Great Job, that prove to me that u are serious in doing your homework, congrats, now channel this desire and perseverance in learning how to trend follow the markets and to build a solid psychology profile to withstand big drawdowns that come hand in hand with this trading style.

Before asking about entries, exits and SL's learn everything u can about the turtles, Donchian channels and richard donchian the father of all Trend followers, Jesse livermore methods, John W. Henry, Ed Seykota, Paul Tudor Jones, Jerry Parker, Salem Abraham, Bill Dunn, David Harding, Larry Hite, Kevin Bruce, Bruce Kovner.

Ha "And Forgot to mention to study Van Tharp's methods and techniques, specially the position sizing and Risk and money management studies".

I'm not trying to Intimidate you or make it an impossible Job to do, but i did all this homework through 13 Years and still reading between 2-3 Hours / day to get where i am and i'm still in the beginning of the road.

Here is the proof that trend following works and a little bit maybe to encourage you, but do you have the perseverance to continue this Journeys to mastery or you are just another Newbie passerby flop on this thread, that depends on you, you got nothing to prove to anyone except yourself.

http://www.trendfollowing.com/performance/
One UCAD Chart to get you excited and to complete your template add this small indicator gift attached.

Best,
B.R.

p.s. I'm not interested in developing any of the projects that you mentioned, being there, done that and it doesn't work for a small time trader like me with limited resources.

Thank you C., but let's not exaggerate buddy, its business as usual, nothing special, you know and i know that its not all rosy, you should see my account statement to see how much tiny losses i incurred to get to this point but like with any trend following strategy let your profits run and they will outprofit your losses by miles, but do you have the tenacity, perseverance and patience to do so ? not to mention the enormous stress felt playing with real money, you will see the difference when you switch to live trading your own money, with OPM (Other People's Money) it's much easier even though you are accountable to your Investors.

Thank you for all your huge contributions in this field.

Best,
B.R.

The Great Paul Tudor Jones Quotes.

"If you have a losing position that is making you uncomfortable,the solution is very simple: Get out, because you can always get back in ."
"Risk control is the most important thing in trading."
"Losers average down losers."
"I said, ‘Mr. Stupid, why risk everything on one trade? Why not make your life a pursuit of happiness rather than pain?"
"We learned just to go with the chart. Why work when Mr. Market can do it for you?"
"Markets have consistently experienced “100-year events” every five years."
"Usually, by the time that becomes self-evident, the move is already over."
"I see the younger generation hampered by the need to understand and rationalize why something should go up or down."
"At the end of the day,your job is to buy what goes up and to sell what goes down so really who gives a damn about PE’s?"
"If I have positions going against me, I get right out; if they are going for me, I keep them…"

Invaluable, Read and Memorise and then implement in your day to day operations.

Best,
B.R.

Hi B. Yes, eventually I am going to have to test my metal when I go live and I am fully aware of what to expect. With regards to your trading technique, your modesty does shine through however what is clear as day is that the postion you now find yourself in is not one of chance, but hard work, diligence and perserverance and for that I still tilt my lid to you. :-) You are just gonna have to accept the praise whether you like it or not!!!!!

.....anyway back to the grind we go.

C

William Eckhardt: The man who launched 1,000 systems

FM: You have a fascinating background. Tell us how you went from a PHD candidate at the University of Chicago to trading futures.
BE: My interest in futures trading dates back to high school, as does my first collaboration with Rich Dennis. At the University of Chicago I specialized in mathematical logic and had a great opportunity to pursue my interests in the philosophy of science and the history of ideas. The latter were influential in shaping my approach to trading. In 1973 my advisor and I were having disagreements about the direction my dissertation was taking, and Rich suggested I take a little time off and come down to the floor to trade. I didn’t go back [to school].

FM: Many of the turtles have gone on to great success as well as some of the C&D traders, even though their strategies have evolved into something quite different than the original. Was there something much more basic in the lessons that allowed so many to succeed and create new strategies?
BE: The turtles were stringently selected and highly talented. They also received training, practice, and guidance. They got a good start from us, but they deserve most of the credit for their ongoing success. The successful turtles have branched out widely, but my trading has also changed; it’s evolve or perish....
As I recall more than half the course revolved around developing the right attitude, guarding against debilitating emotions, how to think about risk, and how to handle success and failure. Teaching the turtle system itself doesn’t take very long. I was saying you need less than 12 degrees of freedom in a system; versions of the turtle system had three or four. We spent a lot of time talking about our theories on how to control risk; that was actually the bulk of the course. Attitude, emotional control, discipline; those things are harder to teach. All the turtles learned the system and learned the strategy; that was the easy part, but some of them brought the right attitude and right mental set to it and they prospered and became very rich. Others had a more halting career and did not succeed as well. They had the same training, but maybe they did not have the same emotional make-up.

FM: Talk a little bit about position sizing and risk management and the role they play in long-term success.
BE: When and where you initiate a trade is a lot less important than how large you trade and how you liquidate. Unfortunately, traders tend to put a great effort into trade initiation and let risk management stagnate. Small improvements in risk or volatility assessment may not be exciting, but they are among the most lasting and beneficial changes. One approach to avoid is to design the system first, then to tack on risk management. I compare this to Wells’ “The Island of Doctor Moreau,” because it’s like grafting the head of one creature onto the body of another. System and risk management should be developed together; the connection should be seamless.

FM: You and Richard Dennis made a bet on whether you could teach trading; can you teach pension managers and financial academics that markets aren’t always efficient?
BE: Various eyewitnesses to this episode disagree, a good example of the unreliability of this kind of testimony. I don’t believe I ever advocated that trading cannot be taught, but if my memory is faulty on this point, I freely admit that, like virtually any human activity, trading can be taught and practice can improve performance. All parties agree, however, there was no bet. Possibly an argument among hundreds of others, but no bet.

FM: That question was supposed to be funny. Basically I am curious about your opinion of why a strategy — trend-following — that has been utilized successfully by many managers over many years is still questioned, even dismissed, by many academics.
BE: For the last 20 years many academics have been critical of the random walk model of price change, although suggested changes are usually minor. A few commentators have even pointed out that the existence of profitable trading systems conflicts with the random walk model. However these same commentators take this as a sign that there is something wrong with their models; they do not analyze and improve trading systems which to them are only inconvenient details about price series.

FM: Some academics still do not believe trend-following works.
BE: They are flying in the face of a lot of data. Forget me; there are dozens of managers with a long track record. A few people — a very few out of a large sample — can profit even in a random market, but that is very few; 1 in 500, 1 in 1,000. Trend-following has had a much better track record than that. But whenever they are confronted with this, the track records of trend followers, they say these people are making money some other way. That is not impossible. When I was in the pit, there were good traders who used these numbers based on three-day moving averages, they were totally pointless numbers and I knew it back then, but they were given out as support and resistance levels and these traders were among the best traders I knew who used these numbers and they would swear by them. I watched their trading and after a while I noticed that the numbers didn’t make any difference, maybe they were trading on the numbers but they were always buying on the bid and selling on the offer. So I guess it is possible that somebody could make money and not know how they are doing it, but that was on the floor where you are getting edges. Trend followers, like myself, are trading off the floor where we are giving up edges so our expected performances should be negative in a random walk. In the face of all that empirical evidence they should be reassessing their position but I have discovered that a lot of academics never change their position and the only way [it will change] is when the older academics die.
Part of the problem is that estimators don’t show every divergence from randomness. Let’s say you have a system and it goes long corn. Let’s say it is a model that says corn goes up 2¢. If corn goes up 8¢, by the normal way of measuring, it was off by 6¢ so it was a bad prediction. It was a good trade but a bad prediction. You simply can’t treat trades and prediction the same way and the academics all are focused on prediction. Now superficially it seems like trading is a form of prediction but it really isn’t. If you design your system where you are trying to predict the market, then it doesn’t work. You have to concentrate on projecting losses, risk management and finding something that works, but if you are directly looking for prediction that tends to be self-stultifying.

FM: But isn’t that the point of trend-following — that you are not predicting, just defining a trend and taking advantage of it?
BE: That’s right. And if you look at me as a predictor instead of as a trader—as a trader I am way ahead, as a predictor I am scoring about 35%, so I am not very good as a predictor. Those are different skills. But still even with trend followers you will hear people say, “Where do you think the market is going?” It is just human nature to try and approach this in terms of making a prediction.

FM: After watching managers for more than a decade, it seems to me that there is more diversity within what is loosely defined as the medium- to long-term trend-following space than most people give it credit for.
BE: That is right. People look too much at the correlation between traders. The fact of the matter is [that] correlations tend to overstate the relationship. The reason being, whatever kind of a trader you are — let’s say you are a medium- to long-term trader — if you are a fundamentalist, if you are countertrend—you know you try and buy the bottom and sell the top — or if you are a trend follower, at that time frame you are going to make money and everyone makes money in the trends. They do it in different ways, they get in at different places, they have different approaches but they make money in the trends. So when you look at the performance they correlate more than they should. So now if you narrow your scope to just trend followers, they are really going to correlate more than they should. So that gives the impression that they are really all just doing the same thing, which they're not. So there is more diversification among trend followers than one would expect. There really are different varieties of trend-following and they really do have different properties.

FM: There are signs this industry that you have been involved in for more than 30 years is moving into the mainstream. What do you see as the future?
BE: Well, it is well overdue. I don’t have to tell you that they were trading futures in the 19thcentury and this is the 21st. People talk about futures as derivatives and that might be technically true but the fact is these have been around for a long time. For all that time futures have had the reputation of being really risky. It took people to lose several fortunes over and over again in the stock market to finally figure out that it is the stock market that is really risky. Futures are only as risky as you want [them] to be because you can leverage [them] down so easily. I don’t understand why futures had the bad reputation for all of those years, and if it is coming into the mainstream it is long overdue.

FM: We know you are more of a technician than a fundamentalist but give us your outlook on the investing landscape. Is it a good time to be in managed futures? Is it a good time to be a trend follower?
BE: I can’t predict the direction of the economy, but it’s a safe bet that it’s going to be a roller coaster ride. In the past such periods have been good for the trend follower. This is, however, a flimsy argument – it’s impressionistic and rests on a small sample. The real reason to participate is that futures trading has been beneficial in general, and now is likely to be as good a time as any.

The Man himself talking about Trend Following and the Turtles.

Awesome post. This is why I have you in my feed, Bass. I do wonder some times if a trader needs a basic knowledge of the business to fully appreciate some things?

You know and i know that any trader should start his education long before he makes his first trade, execution is just a small part of this huge business and no one ever succeeded without understanding the basics, now to be really successful you have to master all the elements like our Friend Eckhardt did and keep on evolving like he did also.

By the way his Fund Performance Eckhardt Trading YTD is 16.08 % .

Best,
B.R.

Hey B.. Thanks for the link, where did you get the YTD stats from ? Cheers..

Every end of the Month i post a Trend Following performance stats for the biggest Hedge Funds In the Industry, here is the Link of the Site.

http://www.automated-trading-system....owing-wizards/

The Complete Turtle Rules.

http://www.myplaniq.com/LTISystem/js....action?ID=330

Hi bass, good day I just want to say thanks for everything u have ever done for me and in this thread may God continue to bless u with more knowledge. I've always been around and will always stick by u. How is ur family? Greetings. Jnr

J., Buddy, hope that life is treating you well .

Best,
B.R.