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  • #88,641
  • Jan 24, 2015 11:06am Jan 24, 2015 11:06am
Aud/Usd looks like a sinking ship... I'm looking for a short opportunity at around 0.8084, stop loss would be just above the swing high @ 8134.
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  • #88,642
  • Jan 24, 2015 1:25pm Jan 24, 2015 1:25pm
Crazy week for sure. New poster here but been watching for quite a while. IMO, sometimes the technicals get tossed aside at the whims of the fundamentals. Support and resistance levels are good markers, but one crazy thing like the SNB pulled the other day and it all goes out the window. Look back at some of the posts here and some have been right on, while others have been completely whacked...just dependent on what happened that day or week in the life of the politicians, weather, terrorists, etc.

The posts about being careful are probably the best advice. I day trade myself with a pretty aggressive system, which has proven to be very effective as long as I am liquid at the end of each session. Basically more contracts for shorter targets. I have been bitten by longer term targets that seem good technically, but then get destroyed by one comment from some knucklehead politician or banker.

Good bunch of posters here and I have learned much from your advice...good and bad. I will only offer one thing based on my experience and it just is what it is from my viewpoint: We are not living in normal times at the moment. There are a number of powder kegs out there that could set a lot of different issues in motion. Look back at the weeks of Lehman, Bear Stearns, etc and see how technicals went out the window. Once normalized, the trends reset, but until then there was lots of money lost and lots of accounts go tits up. I think we are in a time period where things could happen again. The AUD at 79 may be nothing if something happens in Greece, Yemen, Israel, or God knows where else where people panic or decide to go risk off for a while. And we all know how artificial the equity markets are with the cheap money propping. Something somewhere at sometime will light the fuse. Technicals out the window. AUD dropped 13 cents in 5 days back in 08. Gooooooood money! I am in hopes that this forum can be a solid bunch of advice for both technicals and fundamentals.

True Peace to everyone and happy hunting!!
  • #88,643
  • Jan 24, 2015 1:50pm Jan 24, 2015 1:50pm
Quoting TheTopBloke
{quote} The RBA will NOT lower rates. You can count on that. They complained about a high dollar curbing exports and they got what they wanted. On the other side, they have a huge housing bubble and lowering rates certainly isn't going to curb that. If anything, they'll be raising rates, but the odds of a rise this time around, pretty low IMHO. While you make a great point about the level, there's nothing else to point toward a stronger AUD. From where I'm sitting there's a lot of uncertainty out there, and risk of coming off. Same old shit, different...
I agree with ya there. IMO, the US dollar could take just a bit of consolidation after some big move especially again all the commodity currency. The fact that lots of trader now pricing in RBA rate cut this year, and if it disappoints, I'd guess that AUD could regain some loss ground before the downtrend resume. The forex market now is the playground of all Central Banks with their different policies. And the fact is now every broker in US is raising the maximum margin requirement, it just makes it harder for small trader like us to make profits!
  • #88,644
  • Jan 24, 2015 4:47pm Jan 24, 2015 4:47pm
AUD/USD seems to have a big drop on Wed 28Jan15 for AUD Consumer Prices Index (YoY) (4Q).
  • #88,645
  • Jan 25, 2015 4:49am Jan 25, 2015 4:49am
Expecting a chance to make some fast money going long on this pair soon after opening this week. Odd direction given the main flow is toward the stronger dollar, but bulls violated one of the areas bears would have been expected to hold if they had serious intent of continuing down on the lower charts (shows on 15m or less). Furthermore price action structure is suggesting a preparation to rally after returning for one last dip to near the lows from Friday. May not be a multi-day hold but if played right offers a low risk / high reward scalping opportunity.
  • #88,646
  • Jan 25, 2015 4:51am Jan 25, 2015 4:51am
Quoting Kanzler
Expecting a chance to make some fast money going long on this pair not too long after opening this week. Odd direction given the main flow is toward the stronger dollar, but bulls violated one of the areas bears would have been expected to hold if they had serious intent of continuing down on the lower charts (shows on 15m or less). Furthermore price action structure is suggesting a preparation to rally after returning for one last dip to near the lows from Friday. May not be a multi-day hold but if played right offers a low risk / high reward scalping...
  • #88,647
  • Jan 25, 2015 6:23am Jan 25, 2015 6:23am
Quoting PariCovek
{quote} Am new to this thread, and I definitely think we'll get some swings in the AUD/USD pair in the next 7 trading days.
Great post. Welcome to the thread and thanks for sharing your thoughts and insights.

I too can see an 'on the table IR cut but perhaps not yet'. I do follow the AU fundies at times but it isn't where my energy is focused at present so can't share too much only what I'm hearing on local news. Technically however, imo the weekly break below .8050 is important and down to .77 is vulnerable to a bear push. A break back above this zone may see further buying especially if the RBA stay on hold.

Regards, Matt.
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #88,648
  • Jan 25, 2015 6:38am Jan 25, 2015 6:38am
A possible Bullish Gartley seen on the 15 mins chart... lets see how the week starts.
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  • #88,649
  • Jan 25, 2015 7:07am Jan 25, 2015 7:07am
Quoting MJBhinder
A possible Bullish Gartley seen on the 15 mins chart... lets see how the week starts. {image}
C a fraction shallow on my broker but if D can get that full 78% (XA) pullback could be a good setup.
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #88,650
  • Jan 25, 2015 1:02pm Jan 25, 2015 1:02pm
Quoting Matts Micro
{quote} C a fraction shallow on my broker but if D can get that full 78% (XA) pullback could be a good setup.
By coincidence (don't believe in harmonic patterns) I agree.

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  • #88,651
  • Jan 25, 2015 4:13pm Jan 25, 2015 4:13pm
Price gapping down, still think this is a buy. Have a catastrophic stop loss but will keep an eye on how this performs manually, as this outcome was a small possibility.
  • #88,652
  • Jan 25, 2015 4:22pm Jan 25, 2015 4:22pm
Quoting Kanzler
Price gapping down, still think this is a buy. Have a catastrophic stop loss but will keep an eye on how this performs manually, as this outcome was a small possibility.
Mate I aint trading AUD, but aint you concerned with that slumping Oil price? Last week I ve heard they closed another factory laying of 7K workers. Think Australia getting heavy hits. Thats why they tried to calm down investors last week with some positive consumer sentiment numbers, but think AUD not good long term investment.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #88,653
  • Jan 25, 2015 4:29pm Jan 25, 2015 4:29pm
.........

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  • #88,654
  • Jan 25, 2015 5:01pm Jan 25, 2015 5:01pm
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break below ?? line attraction
  • #88,655
  • Jan 25, 2015 9:51pm Jan 25, 2015 9:51pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} Mate I aint trading AUD, but aint you concerned with that slumping Oil price? Last week I ve heard they closed another factory laying of 7K workers. Think Australia getting heavy hits. Thats why they tried to calm down investors last week with some positive consumer sentiment numbers, but think AUD not good long term investment.
Long term yes just taking this one on technical signals scalp.
  • #88,656
  • Jan 25, 2015 10:37pm Jan 25, 2015 10:37pm
Ozzie Ozzie Ozzie... 'av a Tru Blu Australia Day
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #88,657
  • Jan 25, 2015 11:44pm Jan 25, 2015 11:44pm
The pair confirmed a very weak closing on Friday in the daily as well as in the weekly chart suggesting further downside pressure. Possible a direct drop toward 0,7300/ 0,7200, next support area! I waiting for a decent rebound to sell for a drop toward s/t target at 0,7703.
  • #88,658
  • Jan 26, 2015 12:26am Jan 26, 2015 12:26am
Given public holiday in Australia, we may see limited demand for the currency, it may just continue to creep lower today.
  • #88,659
  • Jan 26, 2015 12:27am Jan 26, 2015 12:27am


Australian dollar drops below 79 US cents on RBA rate cut bets

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/marke...#ixzz3PuFfyCxC
It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #88,660
  • Jan 26, 2015 1:02am Jan 26, 2015 1:02am
hard to say but it will go to 0.7500 soon.
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