AUD/USD

Make or break

http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-n...5-3b13e6763bca

I think AUD is screwed! We are making new lows. RBA next CB to lower rates?

Im long from 0.7900. TP 0.8000, SL 0.7960. Fibo level - I hope that will be good support level.

I dont think that RBA will lower rates because AUD is going lower by help of strong dollar across the board. np need to lower rates and Australia's big trading partners are performing better than EUR or GBP partners. It is big chance for Australia I think. Better to buy AUD against EUR, GBP and JPY but not USD.

some micro analyses, bull flag in a larger bear flag, not sure what it wants......

AU M5:

Finally Wish FX-opinion was here

looks like a pump and dump now, long from .79 was good .. looking to tp at .7966 and 799 .. we'll see

That guy? I hear he trades with the number of ships at the harbour...

Trying baby short

He must have made a fortune from all the swap he made ...

Be caution with this! USD is stretched and AUD is at a level not seen since forever. If the RBA's maintaining its neutral bias, we could see it pops back up to .8500. The FED is up this upcoming Wednesday so any signal that they're worried about the dollars would trigger an unexpected correction.

Am new to this thread, and I definitely think we'll get some swings in the AUD/USD pair in the next 7 trading days.

I'm not convinced the RBA will cut rates in the next couple of months. I have a connection at a large Australian Home Construction Business and the word on the street is that they are selling new homes like "hot cakes". I also think the reduction in petrol prices is enough stimulus for the time being and that the RBA may sit on the fence to keep the "powder dry" for another day. I mean Australia already has a record low central bank rate.

It was only a couple of months ago that the RBA and OECD were warning about the risks of the Australian housing market:
http://www.afr.com/p/business/proper...iZFvP7tPuDjUHP
http://www.afr.com/p/national/oecd_t...nSSQOzMVuc9rKI

The RBA wants lower exchange rates, down to the USD0.75 level is the target, it has been able to get to USD0.79 without a hint of a single rate cut in the last 12 months.

Look what the AUD/USD pair did after January 2014? We have much lower commodity prices this time around from January 2014, but there is certain sense of Dejavu...

Having said that, most bank economists are predicting a rate cut sooner, and the Australian bond markets have priced a 50 basis point move south, which is a very good indicator of rate cuts.

Despite all this, behind BoC's rate cut, the Canadian economy has a much larger exposure to the Energy Sector (and oil prices) than Australia:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of...oil_production
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of...gas_production


The RBA meeting is 7 working days away, I think sentiment will swing in the interim, if Inflation on Wednesday is low (Eg Below 1%) then rate cut is more likely. I think the RBA may sit on the fence this month and observe Canada's rate decision and analyse the impact it has to their economy in months to come.

RBA may also drop rates sooner if the commodities prices fall further south (namely the main Aussie exports of Coal, Iron Ore, Bauxite, Gold, Liquefied Natural Gas). As LNG is linked to Oil prices, there is some talk that the price of LNG may be decoupled from Oil and its price subject to natural market forces, but this is probably several months to years away. Australia's banking exposure to LNG is not so large yet, so the main impact to the economy is that it may stall future projects, but there is limited banking downside.

I am bearish on the AUD over the next 12 months, but short term if the RBA makes no signal of rate cuts then I expect the AUD to head to the 8100-8200 range straight after the next RBA meeting.

If the RBA make a 25 basis point cut, I expect it to head to 7700.

The AUD looks like its on the knife edge, but no panic yet, I mean the BoC is not the RBA!

Also keen to understand how much has the market priced in the anticipated rate changes (Future RBA cash rate *Range of 2.5% to 2%* v Future Fed rates *Range of 0.25% to 0.4%*)?

AUD/USD has fallen 16.8% since July 2014 (0.95052 to 0.79095) based on sentiment and no rate changes.

It continued down in a downtrend. Gee, what a surprise.

It's still on track from the wave count done 3 weeks ago:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...93#post7972893

The RBA will NOT lower rates. You can count on that. They complained about a high dollar curbing exports and they got what they wanted. On the other side, they have a huge housing bubble and lowering rates certainly isn't going to curb that. If anything, they'll be raising rates, but the odds of a rise this time around, pretty low IMHO.

While you make a great point about the level, there's nothing else to point toward a stronger AUD. From where I'm sitting there's a lot of uncertainty out there, and risk of coming off. Same old shit, different day, and now everyone knows it.

Not exactly a downtrend. It was ranging for quite a lot of that period of time.

Starting Aug 2011 high, then lower high, ranging at a lower high through 2012, lower high, lower high.
Down trend. It might not be pretty, but that's what it is.