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Geppy's Geppy Thread (GBP/JPY)

  • #17,041
  • Jan 22, 2015 6:23am Jan 22, 2015 6:23am
Quoting js5020
Price action signal building on the current 4H, fail to obtain anything higher than 179.02 on the current 4H candle may lead us to lower prices in the upcoming days? But this is GJ so we could also run up to the moon and resume the long trend? They are already trying to shove price down, bit of a battle to keep it above .50s
Yes, I wouldn't be surprised to see a break up. Price compression is just a little extreme around the 178.3/5 area, but I guess we''ll see soon.
  • #17,042
  • Jan 22, 2015 8:40am Jan 22, 2015 8:40am
Hello, just joint in, Want to share on GBP/JPY.. Taking breakout on Short......at 178.339..here is visual
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  • #17,043
  • Jan 22, 2015 9:51am Jan 22, 2015 9:51am
Quoting Mpt
{quote} Yes, I wouldn't be surprised to see a break up. Price compression is just a little extreme around the 178.3/5 area, but I guess we''ll see soon.
Sweet little run very good RR, I had multiple signals from all my methods, went in full tilt small stops 25% increase on the account,, I can handle days like this.
  • #17,044
  • Jan 22, 2015 11:18am Jan 22, 2015 11:18am
Potential Gartley on GJ 1hr
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  • #17,045
  • Jan 23, 2015 1:12am Jan 23, 2015 1:12am
​One often leads the others. EJ out of it's present low may not portend well for GJ at 175.8.​ Uj often lags the most.
  • #17,046
  • Jan 23, 2015 3:31am Jan 23, 2015 3:31am
176.3/5 is possible breakdown
  • #17,047
  • Jan 23, 2015 3:47am Jan 23, 2015 3:47am
Quoting Mpt
176.3/5 is possible breakdown
Right now? With the extremely good UK retail sales? Do you think the bears can overcome that? Just curious.
  • #17,048
  • Jan 23, 2015 4:31am Jan 23, 2015 4:31am
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} Right now? With the extremely good UK retail sales? Do you think the bears can overcome that? Just curious.
Are you looking at the 1 minute or daily/weekly/monthly chart??? News means nothing. Honestly!
  • #17,049
  • Jan 23, 2015 4:34am Jan 23, 2015 4:34am
Quoting Mpt
{quote} Are you looking at the 1 minute or daily/weekly/monthly chart??? News means nothing.
Oh. Sorry about that. I usually trade intraday, so that's what I meant.

Overall, I do expect to see 176.20, 175.60, in that order with +/- 20 pips.

But for now, for some strange (and completely INSANE) reason, my gut is telling me that this recent retail sales news isn't enough to even avoid the geppy from falling in the INTRADAY standards. In other words, my gut seems to imply that it'll keep falling shortly. I know there's no logic behind it.

Nevertheless, I've taken shorts at 177.40. Lord knows why. I guess we'll see in 3-5 hours.

Has this happened to you? When your instincts tell you to do something against common sense for sake of your benefit?
  • #17,050
  • Jan 23, 2015 5:30am Jan 23, 2015 5:30am
Don't want to sound rude, but those numbers are the bottom of the weekly candle. News very rarely has any effect on direction, bar the occasional nfp -or some of our dick head mates in Switzerland . Otherwise, news is either in trend direction, or good for correction only. Simple rule, but time proven. Have a good weekend mate - I like your contributions.
  • #17,051
  • Jan 23, 2015 5:47am Jan 23, 2015 5:47am
Quoting Mpt
Don't want to sound rude, but those numbers are the bottom of the weekly candle. News very rarely has any effect on direction, bar the occasional nfp -or some of our dick head mates in Switzerland . Otherwise, news is either in trend direction, or good for correction only. Simple rule, but time proven. Have a good weekend mate - I like your contributions.
Don't worry about that; you weren't. And to be honest, I also agree with you about the value of news, albeit in a slightly different direction- news only has significance when markets are acting against it (excluding the initial bounce/spike/correction). I've long since given up on trading news except for major conferences (like the recent ECB), and I have the past failures as proof.
And thanks - hope you have a good one as well.
  • #17,052
  • Jan 23, 2015 6:29am Jan 23, 2015 6:29am
Wow. Look at where EJ now sits. Right at the top retest of the monthly ichimoku cloud -at long last - after 15 months since breakout.If it doesn't bounce soon, we're going to have another GU type drop on that pair.
  • #17,053
  • Jan 23, 2015 8:33am Jan 23, 2015 8:33am
taking a ride on the beast.. i don't know why but it's freakin dropping like a stone
  • #17,054
  • Jan 24, 2015 8:51pm Jan 24, 2015 8:51pm
Quoting allisonmagic
taking a ride on the beast.. i don't know why but it's freakin dropping like a stone
That's because the corrective waves haven't technically ended yet. Honestly, it's only when the market moves below 173 that the beast will have my attention. If it does punch below 170, then I'll consider it an unknown factor.

But until then, I'm just dying for an optimal place to reload a long and hold it up to 189.
  • #17,055
  • Edited 11:13pm Jan 24, 2015 10:45pm | Edited 11:13pm
It is slightly possible that it is nearing completion. In the event it only makes a double bottom at 175.8 (or runs slightly short), a bounce from there MAY get it far enough back over the 178.7/179 pivot (like 182.5 ish), with any resultant decline from higher up maybe finding support at 179. This is just a possible scenario.

With a new month approaching, I'm not sure whether it wants to open up a new monthly candle under 177/176.9, being the monthly 200 sma.

A drop out of about 173 right now would have it heading for 171, but my personal view is that it remains corrective only and still potentially bullish to new highs. The weekly is heading towards being a little stretched and the monthly has had its best period of losing its overbought status since the drop out of 133.4 to 118.6 in April/May 2012. Lastly, on that note, the 189.6 place it stopped was only the 118.6/174.8 fib extension of 1.27. Traditionally (and it really has been a while now) GJ either pauses at the 1.27 or falls back towards the 'zero' point which in this case is circa 174.8. But there's no rule and 171 would work just as well.
  • #17,056
  • Jan 26, 2015 5:36am Jan 26, 2015 5:36am
It keeps chugging up the hill. They say it's overbought. They haven't looked at the weekly - it hasn't moved yet.
  • #17,057
  • Jan 27, 2015 12:49am Jan 27, 2015 12:49am
​As expected the 179 pivot has held it. It will no doubt attempt to get up soon. Either back to around 180 in a consolidation or a furious break up. We will see. Soon.
  • #17,058
  • Edited 1:13am Jan 27, 2015 12:59am | Edited 1:13am
Quoting Mpt
​As expected the 179 pivot has held it. It will no doubt attempt to get up soon. Either back to around 180 in a consolidation or a furious break up. We will see. Soon.
Where do you see it falling to? My bets are in favor of bears, with initial target support to be at 177.

Honestly though, my indicators and systems point out that we'll have "support" areas that will be given respect/acknowledged at every 50 pips or so. I don't expect anything above 177 to last for very long, however.

The exception to this would be 176.20 +/- 50pips. All bets are off on that region, and I'm definitely taking profit at upper 175s for my shorts.

I've waited nearly 4 hours for this bearish movement to come to fruition ever since we had a noticeable breach of 178.50. It's about goddamn time.

Stiil,, the upcoming U.K. news could rattle things up. I guess I'll just wait and see how the market reacts.
  • #17,059
  • Jan 27, 2015 1:34am Jan 27, 2015 1:34am
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} Where do you see it falling to? My bets are in favor of bears, with initial target support to be at 177. Honestly though, my indicators and systems point out that we'll have "support" areas that will be given respect/acknowledged at every 50 pips or so. I don't expect anything above 177 to last for very long, however. The exception to this would be 176.20 +/- 50pips. All bets are off on that region, and I'm definitely taking profit at upper 175s for my shorts. I've waited nearly 4 hours for this bearish movement to come to fruition ever...
Hi mate. UJ picked up from where it should have right now, so I view this down draught as a minor correction. GJ under about 177.3 or so might not be so cool though. 179 is the underside of the daily cloud, so I guess it'll get hit again. If UJ holds here, I still EXPECT it to run back to 119/120 (taking GJ back to 180). The question mark would be GU, as you pointed out.I think it has the potential to shock and surprise.

I never get excited about moves at this precise time of day as they're usually corrective.

But as i said, a drop back below 177 x would suggest the correction is over prematurely.
  • #17,060
  • Jan 27, 2015 6:52am Jan 27, 2015 6:52am
179 sits below or right on the the red line. Whenever price has broken above that line it's been due to major news, either related to GU or Yen (plus one FOMC), but never both. Even an intervention in 2011 couldn't do it.

To get back up, I suspect we would need both pairs running uphill in correlation. Failure to secure over 180 or maybe even 181 would probably have it fall out again to a new low. We need a strong run straight to 182. Sadly, everything looks weak right now - so much so that it looks more as if it wants to turn around and go the other way.

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