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Dragon Riders GBP/JPY

  • #2,921
  • Jan 22, 2015 1:41am Jan 22, 2015 1:41am
Quoting ichimokulove
{quote} I agree with you but what concerns me is on mothly chart tenken sen is big support from ichimoku respective
yes true..hope it wil break
  • #2,922
  • Jan 22, 2015 1:51am Jan 22, 2015 1:51am
Quoting praviiii
this pair has to go down ..i learn ichimoku and wave analysis...here i am posting my thoughts on this... Ichimoku : its closed below the cloud and pull back however cloud become resistance and coming down so it will go down if its break recent low then it may go down furthur.... wave analysis : 2nd wave retrace more than 50% and 3rd wave rally 138.2% and 4th wave retrace 38.2% if this analysis is correct it should go down furthur let see whats going to happend............ {image}
Thanks mate.. your post acted as a very good confirmation for me.. quick +40 pips..

Happy Trades
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #2,923
  • Jan 22, 2015 8:37am Jan 22, 2015 8:37am
Wow, the yen is red hot and angry right now. Strongest of 8 majors.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #2,924
  • Jan 22, 2015 8:53am Jan 22, 2015 8:53am
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
{quote} Thanks mate.. your post acted as a very good confirmation for me.. quick +40 pips.. Happy Trades
good to hear ata-turkoglu that earn 40 pips...keep going....
  • #2,925
  • Edited 2:26pm Jan 22, 2015 12:50pm | Edited 2:26pm
Retested the 177.30 support four times, attempting to test the new resistance of 178. If it holds, we'll see a retest of 177.30, followed by 177/176.80, 176.20, and finally 175.40/60. If not, immediate resistance is at 178, 178.30/40, followed by 179 and 180 respectively.

Let's see how it plays out.

Edit: All of my points have a +/- 20pip zone.

Oh, and did anyone manage to catch the eur/usd collapse after Draghi announced his 60bn/month QE? I managed to short one at 1.16350, but I took profit early at 1.141. Anyone else sticking around for lower?
  • #2,926
  • Edited 5:55pm Jan 22, 2015 5:39pm | Edited 5:55pm
Strange other...we've went right through 178.30/40 without any struggle, and it's not even Tokyo session yet. Something seems off. Is there some reason for a mass purchase? Any major recent news? I'm leaning towards someone buying up the geppy.

Edt: I just launched several short at 178.30/40/50 respectively. This is too unnatural to just continue onwards to 179 without a small corrective bounce. I aim to nab a few dozen pips, with the primary target at 178.1/00.
  • #2,927
  • Jan 22, 2015 5:49pm Jan 22, 2015 5:49pm
Quoting Vermillion
Retested the 177.30 support four times, attempting to test the new resistance of 178. If it holds, we'll see a retest of 177.30, followed by 177/176.80, 176.20, and finally 175.40/60. If not, immediate resistance is at 178, 178.30/40, followed by 179 and 180 respectively. Let's see how it plays out. Edit: All of my points have a +/- 20pip zone. Oh, and did anyone manage to catch the eur/usd collapse after Draghi announced his 60bn/month QE? I managed to short one at 1.16350, but I took profit early at 1.141. Anyone else sticking around for lower?...
You're scaring me now. Long N.Y. at 177.62. Had a 36 pip draw and hung in there. Now a 70 pip profit. Wonder if I should take it and run or will the ECB QE take it higher? Fantastic trade on the Euro, very well done friend.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #2,928
  • Jan 22, 2015 5:56pm Jan 22, 2015 5:56pm
Quoting Temujin
{quote} You're scaring me now. Long N.Y. at 177.62. Had a 36 pip draw and hung in there. Now a 70 pip profit. Wonder if I should take it and run or will the ECB QE take it higher? Fantastic trade on the Euro, very well done friend.
Watch the attempt to test support. If 178 holds, keep it. If not, get ready to leave (but market might be 10-20 pips below 178 just to trigger stop losses)

As for the ECB QE, yeah, in the weekly-monthly basis, this'll increase the value of the gbp/jpy. I don't know about right now though, since much of the QE was expected thanks to news leak.

Keep in mind that we still technically haven't invalidated the current ongoing downtrend. OVERALL trend, as one would guess, is still bullish. And will continue to be bullish for the next year or two. There's NO way Japan can fix their economy right now.

Edit: As expected, we're getting a corrective bounce to test new potential support. I'm closing my 178.50 short at 178.10, and have my fingers on the other two just ready to take profit.
  • #2,929
  • Jan 22, 2015 7:15pm Jan 22, 2015 7:15pm
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} Watch the attempt to test support. If 178 holds, keep it. If not, get ready to leave (but market might be 10-20 pips below 178 just to trigger stop losses) As for the ECB QE, yeah, in the weekly-monthly basis, this'll increase the value of the gbp/jpy. I don't know about right now though, since much of the QE was expected thanks to news leak. Keep in mind that we still technically haven't invalidated the current ongoing downtrend. OVERALL trend, as one would guess, is still bullish. And will continue to be bullish for the next year or two....
Escaped with 20 pips instead of 70, that was dumb. Anyway, the euro looks very interesting at this level. Overdone?
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #2,930
  • Jan 22, 2015 7:34pm Jan 22, 2015 7:34pm
Quoting Temujin
{quote} Escaped with 20 pips instead of 70, that was dumb. Anyway, the euro looks very interesting at this level. Overdone?
Sorry about your loss. But I really couldn't say for certain as to whether we'll continue the bullish motion in the tokyo session, since 178 is a major source of contention. And really, although I'm leaning towards shorting from 178, we still might go up. We never know for sure.

For the euro, that depends-are you talking about euro/usd? eur/chf? eur/jpy?

For eur/usd, there's a good chance of retesting 1.1300, but adding shorts from now is risky given that the last bit of QE that wasn't priced in earlier has now been done so. I'm staying flat here.

For eur/chf, nothing new here-the QE didn't affect it as much since it was a drop in the bucket compared to the SNB shock. It's still hovering within 100-200 pips within the parity line, so there's room for temporary shorts but nothing too big. I would not go long though; there's been a number of major attempts to hit stop losses for bulls , and these spikes (or more accurately, "falls") are worth 100-300 pips.

For eur/jpy, I don't usually trade that because it's basically comparing the lesser of two evils: on one hand, Japan is fucked. Compared to the other major rival nations for the yen, Japan isn't doing so hot. Japan's in a recession, U.S. is not (for now). Japan had a surprise QE, the U.S. ended QE. On the other hand, Europe is even MORE fucked up, what with the potential Grexit over the weekend Greek elections and the 1trillion+ QE announcement today. Both sides are horrible, so it becomes difficult to determine which one would be better for the moment with economic data.

I'm leaning (but not certain) towards shorting the eur/jpy though with the current yen market. If the usd/jpy and gbp/jpy go down, other yen pairs often follow suit.

P.S. How does one go about trading the eur/jpy? I honestly can't trade currency pairs of countries whose economic conditions are in turmoil. At least during the recent financial crash a few years prior, it was easy to pin the U.S. as the weak link in a global recession since it was the lynchpin for global commerce & consumption.
  • #2,931
  • Jan 22, 2015 7:37pm Jan 22, 2015 7:37pm
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} Sorry about your loss. But I really couldn't say for certain as to whether we'll continue the bullish motion in the tokyo session, since 178 is a major source of contention. And really, although I'm leaning towards shorting from 178, we still might go up. We never know for sure. For the euro, that depends-are you talking about euro/usd? eur/chf? eur/jpy? For eur/usd, there's a good chancec of retesting 1.1300, but adding shorts from now is risky given that the last bit of QE that wasn't priced in earlier has now been done so. I'm staying...
EUR/USD is way overcooked. Long at 1.1365
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #2,932
  • Edited Jan 23, 2015 12:02am Jan 22, 2015 11:30pm | Edited Jan 23, 2015 12:02am
Manually closed all shorts for the gbp/jpy. It's getting caught up in a weird zone that I don't identify as a proper support/resistance/fib. Awaiting retest of 178 or further clearer move to the downside to make my move. I caught around 80 pips in total with them. It's a lot less than the retest of 177.30 I expected, but I'm not going to risk my money in this uncertain environment.

I'm going to try a small long for the eur/usd at 1.1300; it's risky, but it's mostly for kicks and giggles, and the r:r I set up isn't bad.

Edit: Wait. the USD/JPY seems to reverting back, as is the geppy. Awaiting short order.
  • #2,933
  • Jan 23, 2015 12:03am Jan 23, 2015 12:03am
Got a pretty big short at 177.540. We're definately going to test 177.10 now. The only question is whether it's only a scrape, or if we'll severely breach 177.30. For the latter, that opens up a new fibonacci level down to 175.40/60. If that's the case, hello, profit.

I'll probably add a long around the 175s and leave it there for a while; from the intermediate short term (3 months<t<1 year) perspective, that's a good place to stick a long.
  • #2,934
  • Jan 23, 2015 12:07am Jan 23, 2015 12:07am
if it can break 176.90,next target will be 176.20
  • #2,935
  • Jan 23, 2015 12:13am Jan 23, 2015 12:13am
Quoting mikok730
if it can break 176.90,next target will be 176.20
For the last target, mine is 175.70 +/- 20 pips

I don't really count 176.20, since it's just a "median" number that happens to be formed as a result of the bounce from breaching 176. At least, I'd aim closer to 176 to maximize profit, but that's my opinion. In the event that 177.30 holds, I'll close with whatever profits/losses at hand.
  • #2,936
  • Jan 23, 2015 12:38am Jan 23, 2015 12:38am
I am using Fibonacci 61.8 as reference
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #2,937
  • Jan 23, 2015 12:58am Jan 23, 2015 12:58am
Quoting mikok730
I am using Fibonacci 61.8 as reference {image}
Ah, the good ole' fibby. Good to have, and it works better than most so-called indicators and chart patterns. And while you probably know this already, but don't aim for exact numbers; fibonacci numbers can be off by 5-15 pips at times.

If 177.30 is broken, I'll add more shorts.
  • #2,938
  • Jan 23, 2015 1:21am Jan 23, 2015 1:21am
agree with you. however, if it is not break, big possibility it is the end of wave 2 and heading to north soon
  • #2,939
  • Jan 23, 2015 1:53am Jan 23, 2015 1:53am
Quoting mikok730
agree with you. however, if it is not break, big possibility it is the end of wave 2 and heading to north soon
177.30 fell. We're testing 177. If that breaks, then all hell breaks loose for intraday retail bulls.

And just as I type this, the geppy breached 177. Good luck to everyone with their trades.
  • #2,940
  • Jan 23, 2015 5:54am Jan 23, 2015 5:54am
Quoting praviiii
this pair has to go down ..i learn ichimoku and wave analysis...here i am posting my thoughts on this... Ichimoku : its closed below the cloud and pull back however cloud become resistance and coming down so it will go down if its break recent low then it may go down furthur.... wave analysis : 2nd wave retrace more than 50% and 3rd wave rally 138.2% and 4th wave retrace 38.2% if this analysis is correct it should go down furthur let see whats going to happend............ {image}
wow...200 pips down as of now......it may go down more.....
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