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Geppy's Geppy Thread (GBP/JPY)

  • #17,021
  • Jan 19, 2015 2:52am Jan 19, 2015 2:52am
Quoting Geppy
{quote} It could actually result in increased volatility since the markets are so thin any jabbering from Central Banks, etc. could see more dramatic moves. But hey, nothing we aren't used to.
If there are only half traders now? One half is ruined, the other half so rich they never have to trade again? LOL ...
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #17,022
  • Jan 19, 2015 6:49am Jan 19, 2015 6:49am
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Week: GJ maybe down to the lower of Bollinger Band
Trust yourself maybe will be wrong,doubt yourself absolutely will be wrong
  • #17,023
  • Jan 19, 2015 9:08am Jan 19, 2015 9:08am
Quoting hyt-tony
{image} Week: GJ maybe down to the lower of Bollinger Band
The bottom was already in. 220 EMA on the daily chart. When Draghi announces the scale of the bond buying program on Thursday it will be wildly speculated Europe will rise from deflation and The FTSE, CAC, DAX will rally. America will also rally. Risk on sentiment will resurface. GBP/JPY is the ultimate risk-on pair. 179 will be the next resistance it will take out.

When trading GBP/JPY one must surmise the global market as a whole and contemplate how the pair will be affected by macro economic drivers.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #17,024
  • Jan 20, 2015 2:08am Jan 20, 2015 2:08am
​I watch people on gj forums who enter with stops of 20 or 30 pips and just shake my head. Shit, with the best analysis I can muster I've never been inside 25. Unless you're running a 100 pip sl you're always going to lose. And wonder why.​
  • #17,025
  • Jan 20, 2015 2:11am Jan 20, 2015 2:11am
Quoting Mpt
​I watch people on gj forums who enter with stops of 20 or 30 pips and just shake my head. Shit, with the best analysis I can muster I've never been inside 25. Unless you're running a 100 pip sl you're always going to lose. And wonder why.​
Ahm, no?!
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #17,026
  • Jan 20, 2015 2:12am Jan 20, 2015 2:12am
​But then 100 used to be the Cable standard and gj was 200 to 500.
  • #17,027
  • Jan 20, 2015 2:47am Jan 20, 2015 2:47am
test resistance and back to supoport
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  • #17,028
  • Jan 20, 2015 2:49am Jan 20, 2015 2:49am
Quoting Mpt
​But then 100 used to be the Cable standard and gj was 200 to 500.
For the geppy, a SL of a few hundred pips is good if you want medium-short term trading. For intraday traders & scalpers, however, you can still consistently profit with a SL of 40~60 pips. But I agree that a 20-30 pip SL is a bit too thin unless you've bought at the best possible price (in your opinion)

Around 50 pips tends to work out fine for me for trades that get completed within 3 hours~2 days, unless I made my trade right on the edge of a major support/resistance (then I can drop my SL a bit)

And on that note, I have a short at 178.70. SL is only 30 pips (or break even, depending on chart movement). I just REALLY don't like 179.

Question: Has anyone noticed that 179 never seems to really hold as either a support/resistance? Instead, it seems to act as a catapult to whatever trend is running the market. Other points such as 177 & 178 get respected at least.
  • #17,029
  • Jan 20, 2015 3:08am Jan 20, 2015 3:08am
Quoting Temujin
{quote} The bottom was already in. 220 EMA on the daily chart. When Draghi announces the scale of the bond buying program on Thursday it will be wildly speculated Europe will rise from deflation and The FTSE, CAC, DAX will rally. America will also rally. Risk on sentiment will resurface. GBP/JPY is the ultimate risk-on pair. 179 will be the next resistance it will take out. When trading GBP/JPY one must surmise the global market as a whole and contemplate how the pair will be affected by macro economic drivers.
1H and 4H are fall trend, I have moved SL at 179.7. If break this level, I will wait to look. about economic, I no any idea.
Trust yourself maybe will be wrong,doubt yourself absolutely will be wrong
  • #17,030
  • Jan 20, 2015 3:17am Jan 20, 2015 3:17am
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} For the geppy, a SL of a few hundred pips is good if you want medium-short term trading. For intraday traders & scalpers, however, you can still consistently profit with a SL of 40~60 pips. But I agree that a 20-30 pip SL is a bit too thin unless you've bought at the best possible price (in your opinion) Around 50 pips tends to work out fine for me for trades that get completed within 3 hours~2 days, unless I made my trade right on the edge of a major support/resistance (then I can drop my SL a bit) And on that note, I have a short at 178.70....
Traditionally most people did not trade GJ on short TFs. It really is not that sort of product - albeit 'sold' by people who promote it as the next best thing ... and ever so exciting. This seems a new occurrence ... and folks get done over. I would be surprised if it gets over 179 on this pass.
  • #17,031
  • Jan 20, 2015 4:03am Jan 20, 2015 4:03am
Back in RE tard mode. Fact is, if it doesn't get rejected down soon to below 178.8, it could travel a long way north
  • #17,032
  • Edited 5:01am Jan 20, 2015 4:44am | Edited 5:01am
HOWever, should 179.5/6 hold, it follows a H&S style pattern down to where ever......... probably down under 173 to 170/169. Whether a bounce from there can break 189 is in the lap of the Gods. That would be about 4 weeks hence.
  • #17,033
  • Jan 20, 2015 10:02am Jan 20, 2015 10:02am
Quoting thegmann
{quote} UJ and GJ will probably go up next week, buy the rumor sell the fact. I would expect an up week going into BOJ then either a very big breakout upwards or huge drop as BOJ dissapoints. Either way It's going to go up to shake out shorters that have been accumulating the past week or two and also those who were short will be scaling out of positions especially going into this next week to help limit risk. No free rides from the big boys, they'll push the price up so no one will know what to think (continuation of upward trend?,bottom in place?,...
Well pretty predictable price jump (didn't expect this much up though prior to the news). But price should drop back below the 100 day MA on the daily and probably sit around that area until news. Seems heavy short covering and buying going into the news as expected. This sudden pump up of course leads you to not know wtf to expect. UP or DOWN could go either way Daily shows bounce off 200 MA and a break above the 50% fib retrace. Depending on this daily close could make the case to go long, however below 182 could still make the case for further continuation of this downward move. Ahh the perils of the market.
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  • #17,034
  • Jan 20, 2015 10:09am Jan 20, 2015 10:09am
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} And on that note, I have a short at 178.70. SL is only 30 pips (or break even, depending on chart movement). I just REALLY don't like 179. Question: Has anyone noticed that 179 never seems to really hold as either a support/resistance? Instead, it seems to act as a catapult to whatever trend is running the market. Other points such as 177 & 178 get respected at least.
179 failed to put any form of significant resistance, as expected. BE When there was a slight move down, and my short at 180.100 was triggered. Current short SL is at BE.


let's see how far this pair goes down from its daily peak.
  • #17,035
  • Jan 20, 2015 10:55am Jan 20, 2015 10:55am
Quoting thegmann
{quote} Well pretty predictable price jump (didn't expect this much up though prior to the news). But price should drop back below the 100 day MA on the daily and probably sit around that area until news. Seems heavy short covering and buying going into the news as expected. This sudden pump up of course leads you to not know wtf to expect. UP or DOWN could go either way Daily shows bounce off 200 MA and a break above the 50% fib retrace. Depending on this daily close could make the case to go long, however below 182 could still make the case for...
Back below it at least for time being.
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  • #17,036
  • Jan 20, 2015 11:48am Jan 20, 2015 11:48am
Hey guys, I'm staying out of GBPJPY trades for the time being. The trend rules I have are just too muddled to give a signal. We're at an interesting junction having bounced hard off the daily 200-ema, but the 4-hour is still caught in a (temporary?) downtrend. I'd need to probably see us above 182/183 before taking any longs or new lows before taking on shorts.

For me, we're in no-man's land for now.
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #17,037
  • Edited 7:38am Jan 21, 2015 3:47am | Edited 7:38am
GU out of major support. GJ support 176.8. Then 174.8.
  • #17,038
  • Jan 21, 2015 8:39am Jan 21, 2015 8:39am
G/J Short, Free risk level hit targeting 173.00
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80% effort, 20% luck
  • #17,039
  • Edited 1:05am Jan 22, 2015 12:51am | Edited 1:05am
Some odd price action.

IF the move down into 175.8 was the 5th wave (only of a large C wave) is it possible that the move up from there up to 180.2 was wave 1 (of 1) of a new uptrend? The subsequent run down 24 hours ago was wave A of 2 (of 1)? Should price not go any higher on this run,maybe this was wave b of 2 .... then should the next move down (c of 2) equal the A wave length , all it does is retest 175.8/9 ???????

OK, a break of 175.8 takes it down further, but should it not do so, then a good bounce out of 175.7/8 could mean that, not only has it finished, but it then gets taken up for wave 3 of 1???????????????????????

Stuffed if I know.
  • #17,040
  • Jan 22, 2015 1:32am Jan 22, 2015 1:32am
Price action signal building on the current 4H, fail to obtain anything higher than 179.02 on the current 4H candle may lead us to lower prices in the upcoming days? But this is GJ so we could also run up to the moon and resume the long trend? They are already trying to shove price down, bit of a battle to keep it above .50s
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