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  • #6,741
  • Jan 20, 2015 12:24pm Jan 20, 2015 12:24pm
TRIED to get filled on a USO call spread since the open, mm's not having my tiny debit. I looked at NFLX call condors, didn't want to tie up margin for the week. Good luck with it, SDog. In truth, I am not in a hurry to trade this week, would like to see what happens with plays I already have on, with big CB actions on tap, & also very little screentime....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,742
  • Jan 20, 2015 12:27pm Jan 20, 2015 12:27pm
Quoting StrayDog
... I usually make such trades in final hour of RTH....
And that is because IV can ramp up into the close... I usually do all (selling premium) ER's trades in final hour. On this NFLX trade, I could get like $0.50 credit more for call, and a few cents more for put. Plan is to close the trade early on open, like always. I don't expect two outlier moves in a row.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #6,743
  • Jan 20, 2015 12:33pm Jan 20, 2015 12:33pm
Quoting The Fool
TRIED to get filled on a USO call spread since the open, mm's not having my tiny debit. I looked at NFLX call condors, didn't want to tie up margin for the week. Good luck with it, SDog. In truth, I am not in a hurry to trade this week, would like to see what happens with plays I already have on, with big CB actions on tap, & also very little screentime....
Yeah, off course my friend... I had nothing on, except cash on my account, prior to this NFLX strangle, so trying to put one trade before THE BIG THING.

Ah, will VIX go to $40 or $12... ?
Will Draghi use the "considerable time" phrase?
Will he have blue or red tie, and what that means?
So many questions... and Winter is (not) coming....
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #6,744
  • Jan 20, 2015 1:14pm Jan 20, 2015 1:14pm
Quoting StrayDog
one trade before THE BIG THING..... Will Draghi use the "considerable time" phrase? Will he have blue or red tie, and what that means? So many questions... and Winter is (not) coming....
Draghi is gonna have to release the Kraken. If he does not, the euro will bounce. That's the best I can do....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,745
  • Jan 20, 2015 1:30pm Jan 20, 2015 1:30pm
Breeeaak, StrayDog! C'mon, good buddy! NFLX lookin for $400, I see $391, a 12% pop, hope it wavers there and falls back, c'mon?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,746
  • Jan 20, 2015 1:34pm Jan 20, 2015 1:34pm
Quoting The Fool
Breeeaak, StrayDog! C'mon, good buddy! NFLX lookin for $400, I see $391, a 12% pop, hope it wavers there and falls back, c'mon?
Ah, mofo... It will retrace until tomorrow open, probably into a EM area, under $380... That's from my broken crystal ball of prophecy...

I will just drink some nice tea, and play a game on tablet. Nothing I can do now.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #6,747
  • Jan 20, 2015 1:38pm Jan 20, 2015 1:38pm
I bet you'll be alright, good luck, mate.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,748
  • Edited 6:55pm Jan 20, 2015 4:58pm | Edited 6:55pm
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/austra...231315057.html

The solution to dilution is diminution. T. Boone Pickins says watch the rig counts, look for a bottom around 1,000, and that will coincide (roughly) with the floor for the price of crude.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,749
  • Jan 20, 2015 5:01pm Jan 20, 2015 5:01pm
Quoting The Fool
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/austra...231315057.html The solution to dilution is diminution. T. Boone Pickins says watch the rig counts, look for a bottom around 1,000, and that will conincide (roughly) with the floor for the price of crude.
Thx for link man.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #6,750
  • Jan 20, 2015 7:17pm Jan 20, 2015 7:17pm
Quoting The Fool
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/austra...231315057.html The solution to dilution is diminution. T. Boone Pickins says watch the rig counts, look for a bottom around 1,000, and that will coincide (roughly) with the floor for the price of crude.
...
Lol and in contrast.
http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php...86#post8010334

Now 7K jobs, thats heck of a boost of confidence huh?
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #6,751
  • Jan 20, 2015 10:36pm Jan 20, 2015 10:36pm
natgas gonna do what it do, regardless of the freakin CB's. /NGH5 is Mar, 35 dte....I can't see filling this vertical spread for $0.008, could take 5x that, but I will see what happens with it tomorrow
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,752
  • Jan 20, 2015 11:25pm Jan 20, 2015 11:25pm
ER's tomorrow AXP, EBAY, SNDK. I noticed something about AXP - already got a IVR drop today, maybe get another 5% drop after the ER
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,753
  • Edited 6:15am Jan 21, 2015 5:56am | Edited 6:15am
Quoting The Fool
Breeeaak, StrayDog! C'mon, good buddy! NFLX lookin for $400, I see $391, a 12% pop, hope it wavers there and falls back, c'mon?
With large portfolio margin accounts, if one thinks his short call will be ITM, than one just buy stock... Robyn from tt got away from difficult situations like that a couple of times. On Reg-T accounts, you get only 2x margin in AH, so you got to have 1/2 of the money needed.


Quoting The Fool
I bet you'll be alright, good luck, mate.
I will need all the luck in the world now, with NFLX at $414 in pre market.
Bunch of upgrades also...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #6,754
  • Jan 21, 2015 9:19am Jan 21, 2015 9:19am
Quoting StrayDog
... I made a strangle after all, just lowered put even more than my initial idea... I sold Jan23 265 put for $1.05 credit. So, position is now NFLX Jan23 265/400 short strangle for $3.25 credit.
Well, that is a realized loss of a bit over $900.

I was thinking about 2 scenarios:
1) I could leave it, and hope Draghi will fail, and markets to go down, dragging everything... and on Friday call is worthless.
2) OR he will say the magic words ("considerable time" ) and market will jump, and NFLX explode skyhigh...

Rolling the position was not an option. So, both is 50/50... It could be much bigger loss, or I can make my $300...
F... it. Closed. Another trade is just behind the corner. It would take like 4-5 small trades to cover this shit.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #6,755
  • Jan 21, 2015 9:34am Jan 21, 2015 9:34am
SPX

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waiting to see what will happen here... took only 2 points short...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #6,756
  • Jan 21, 2015 9:52am Jan 21, 2015 9:52am
my condolences, SDog. NFLX might continue up, I looked at bullish calendars or diagonals to $450 or so out in Feb, but I hate those $5 strike spreads.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,757
  • Jan 21, 2015 10:14am Jan 21, 2015 10:14am
Quoting The Fool
my condolences, SDog. NFLX might continue up, I looked at bullish calendars or diagonals to $450 or so out in Feb, but I hate those $5 strike spreads.
Yes, it could... if market continues to go up, and NFLX breaks trough $420, then next resistance is around $440...
It was possible to cover the loss with buying shares on a dip, and closing now... ($402 to $412) but easier said than done.
Water under the bridge now.
Stock is too expensive for me, I knew that some day I would get burned, pity that wasn't the case on some XYZ $50 stock.
Never mind, I will just be more careful next time, nothing else... Use defined risk on expensive stocks. Or avoid them.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #6,758
  • Jan 21, 2015 10:39am Jan 21, 2015 10:39am
SPX...

SPX500 Testing Key Resistance
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/spx500...175300166.html

Yeah, just stop stealing my charts...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #6,759
  • Jan 21, 2015 10:55am Jan 21, 2015 10:55am
I can't figure out what I want to trade. Prolly need to make some coffee....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,760
  • Jan 21, 2015 11:05am Jan 21, 2015 11:05am
So many opinions out there...

Why European QE is bearish for U.S. stocks

...... to late for me to drink more coffee... Next trade for me, after Draghi...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
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