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  • #6,721
  • Jan 18, 2015 8:29pm Jan 18, 2015 8:29pm
Quoting The Fool
What do RIG, GRMN, NE, and WFT have in common?
they are all Swiss, will be watching for neg effect from CHF value spike
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,722
  • Jan 18, 2015 8:57pm Jan 18, 2015 8:57pm
BABA ER's 1/29, DD below risks $0.09 to make $0.91
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,723
  • Jan 19, 2015 8:41am Jan 19, 2015 8:41am
ECB faces crucial test of 'whatever it takes'

So, basically, if Draghi don't deliver a full punchbowl, filled to the lid, any other version, like "QE-lite" would be disappointment... Markets already pricing in full QE.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #6,724
  • Jan 19, 2015 9:02am Jan 19, 2015 9:02am
Quoting StrayDog
ECB faces crucial test of 'whatever it takes' So, basically, if Draghi don't deliver a full punchbowl, filled to the lid, any other version, like "QE-lite" would be disappointment... Markets already pricing in full QE.
right, I guess...to be honest I wouldn't know how to judge....but the ECB announcement on QE is a "binary event"...yes, markets pricing in ECB QE and consequent euro devaluation - that was foretold by the SNB last week...ECB is going to be a bond buyer like the Fed, and that's going to push Eurozone sov bond yields down, with the (vain?) expectation that the result will be banks lending more, pushing money into the real economy, but stocks would benefit also....

"disappointment" would be market's interpretation that QE not big enough. Beyond that of course many pundits saying ECB QE will not have much effect, bond yields already rock bottom, another few short hairs down won't matter...but that judgement will play out over time.

So...maybe QE "priced in"...but worth a shot to short the euro & if you are scalping DAX, watch for big moves north....or reverse of those if the ECB surprises with watered down QE.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,725
  • Jan 19, 2015 9:15am Jan 19, 2015 9:15am
http://www.businessweek.com/news/201...arket-reversal

“Even if the ECB decides to introduce quantitative easing, a lack of details could send the euro back to levels before the Swiss move last week,” Ikeda said. “The euro could surge to $1.20 if the ECB only keeps repeating itself.”
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,726
  • Jan 19, 2015 7:44pm Jan 19, 2015 7:44pm
/CL down $1.30 early, if we are going to see a new push lower into low $40's (all else being equal) then I'd expect to see that Q1. If USD cranks up on ECB QE, timing maybe less dicey. Looking at USO vs /CL spreads. Why can't I set up /CL diagonals in ToS? Maybe a dumb question, but I don't know... Anyway, USO call calendars for credit are very high probability.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,727
  • Jan 19, 2015 8:04pm Jan 19, 2015 8:04pm
Quoting The Fool
... Anyway, USO call calendars for credit are very high probability.
Mar/Apr $1 diag spreads are all right around zero risk to the downside
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,728
  • Jan 19, 2015 8:11pm Jan 19, 2015 8:11pm
Quoting The Fool
expectation that the result will be banks lending more, pushing money into the real economy, but stocks would benefit also.
Hi man,
have bolded part which I find most funny . Always those expectations huh? Wonder how much of those yields down is gonna get to final consumer. Think he wont care if borrows for 5% or 4,7%. Private sector in South of Europe is overloaded with debt anyway, they dont need more . So its gonna get stuck in the banks as usuall.
Either case, am out of Europe with all trades for a while.
Btw, have you saw that discussion we had with Hatch bout banks in Eurozone spiking Eonia at end of month? Thats a funny one am gonna post it so you see.
Check this and have a laugh :
Quoting Mr Hatch
Here's the chart I just made, have to finetune it though. Looks, like we're onto something. On the month-2-month base, the spikes just aren't as pronounced. This definitely smells like trouble ahead. {image}
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Point is in the average thing. They can choose when to deposit. So it is possible they have drained liquidity out of CBs during whole december and needed to meet requirements on the last day so yet again drained liquidity out of market to CB.
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
I have already connected dots here. Banks are abusing hole in CBs reserve system beeing based on average to rob their clients. Sounds valid?
T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #6,729
  • Jan 19, 2015 8:25pm Jan 19, 2015 8:25pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} Hi man, have bolded part which I find most funny . Always those expectations huh?
Well, I did say "vain" expectations... anyway, Tom, I'll bet you are a better student of history than I am, and you're sitting right there in the midst of it, but the Eurozone looks to be poised precariously, I don't have a good feeling, not good at all.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,730
  • Jan 19, 2015 8:31pm Jan 19, 2015 8:31pm
Quoting The Fool
I was a fool. To go long natgas, that is.
So, with N. American winter projected to be on vacation in 2015 (where does Old Man Winter go for vacation?) and with gas producers not putting on the brakes fast enough, I gotta heed the drastic prognostications of various natgas gurus, that sub $2.50 is coming....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,731
  • Jan 19, 2015 8:33pm Jan 19, 2015 8:33pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Well, I did say "vain" expectations... anyway, Tom, I'll bet you are a better student of history than I am, and you're sitting right there in the midst of it, but the Eurozone looks to be poised precariously, I don't have a good feeling, not good at all.
Well although have skipped the vain word, we are on the same page here. Those expectations are vain.
Lol man I study monetary economy. Mostly numbers, CBs and stuff. I love history, but very bad as am pretty young and history takes time to learn. Think you are much better in looking at major fundamental flows, thats why I stalk you (sorry for that )
Well many have bad feeling, but thats normal, think it has something to do with that cold weather out there. EU is pretty rich block, can survive few shocks.
T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #6,732
  • Jan 19, 2015 8:41pm Jan 19, 2015 8:41pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} So, with N. American winter projected to be on vacation in 2015 (where does Old Man Winter go for vacation?) and with gas producers not putting on the brakes fast enough, I gotta heed the drastic prognostications of various natgas gurus, that sub $2.50 is coming....
am waiting for the Mar UNG options to value. Meanwhile, UNG call diagonals give credit out to $18/$19 Feb/Feb4 ($0.08)
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,733
  • Edited Jan 20, 2015 12:05am Jan 19, 2015 9:40pm | Edited Jan 20, 2015 12:05am
http://www.bloombergview.com/article...omy?cmpid=yhoo

"Europe needs new rules -- to allow for coordinated fiscal policy and a more proactive central bank."

I don't really see the EMU hanging together. I don't really get the whole concept of the Eurozone. Whose idea was that, anyway? What is the glue binding all those people together? All those different languages, different cheeses. And why does Germany always seem to call the shots? I dunno, maybe if there was some common overarching cultural imperative...Hey, I know - how about a war against the Semites? Oh, right, can't go there, sorry. Well, bloody or not, I'll bet I live to see the shit fall apart.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,734
  • Jan 19, 2015 9:53pm Jan 19, 2015 9:53pm
Mr Copypaste
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Man dont be so sad. You are prolly older than me right? I promise my generation will fix it. Think older people - mean, guys who lived their young and adult age during Iron curtain, tend to overestimate those cultural differences. Unfortunately those are the people at power now and the result is what you see. None of those feckers is willing to sacrifice a bit for his fellow Europeans. But we young dont do that, we cooperate. I believe we can make it work say in 15 years or so, no worries .
Guys at power in EU just live in their young age in their heads. But I bet the´r gonna die one day.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #6,735
  • Jan 19, 2015 11:50pm Jan 19, 2015 11:50pm
Seriously?
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,736
  • Jan 20, 2015 12:07am Jan 20, 2015 12:07am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Mr Copypaste {quote} Guys at power in EU just live in their young age in their heads.
Is that really a thing - a European? I mean, really, do people actually self-identify that way?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #6,737
  • Jan 20, 2015 3:21am Jan 20, 2015 3:21am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Is that really a thing - a European? I mean, really, do people actually self-identify that way?
Yes mate, young Europeans do that, we are very cosmopolitan. Many young foreigner have jobs around me and many of my mates working in EU. Also, think this is the most important thing - many cross country relations between young people. See none of our parents could move out of country during communism. All young people are thrilled they can travel abroad and are meeting the world, but mosty Europe. And in the end, we all had simmilar issues and somehow feel we are not very different and should work together if we want to preserve our values.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #6,738
  • Jan 20, 2015 7:16am Jan 20, 2015 7:16am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Is that really a thing - a European? I mean, really, do people actually self-identify that way?
Yes, they do... younger people in developed EU countries.
But I don't feel like European just because my banana country is geographically in Europe, because we are decades behind any normal country.
To feel that way, one have to live in normal country, OR at least travel a lot.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #6,739
  • Jan 20, 2015 8:25am Jan 20, 2015 8:25am
Looking for some ER's plays... NFLX and IBM today AH.

Probably will do just one of those two...

Current EMs are:
NFLX: $34 or 10%
IBM: $6.3 or 4%...

Really juicy options on NFLX... thinking of some sort of my own SS a.k.a. a very very wide short strangle .
With larger account I would probably just hit the 1 SD SS (like Jan23 290/385) and pray, but on my current account, more likely a wider version...
Like Jan23 275/400... with $60+ room to short strikes.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #6,740
  • Edited 10:44am Jan 20, 2015 9:57am | Edited 10:44am
With NFLX @ ~$341.50, I shorted the Jan23 400 call, for $2.20 credit. POP 89%... I seriously doubt NFLX can jump over 15%.

Too early it seems... vol will ramp up some more, and price still climbs, but... I am already in. I usually make such trades in final hour of RTH.

I will think later about making a strangle or not... or something else.


addon:
I made a strangle after all, just lowered put even more than my initial idea... I sold Jan23 265 put for $1.05 credit.

So, position is now Jan23 265/400 short strangle for $3.25 credit.
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Never mind prices on pic... I took that because of POP, and individual option prob OTM...



Remember Voltron???
AND I WILL FORM THE HEAD... hahaha
Inserted Video
Hope is dangerous in this game.
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