james16 Chart Thread | Page 6682 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

Attachments: james16 Chart Thread
Exit Attachments

james16 Chart Thread

  • #133,621
  • Jan 19, 2015 9:16am Jan 19, 2015 9:16am
Quoting BigFisherman
{quote} Sound advice mike. I was lucky to be not in any CHF trade last night, would have catastrophic for anyone in it. A huge wake up call for every trader to rethink their risk management. Was wondering who were the big winners last night since so many millions were lost in those chf trades. The banks? hedge funds?

Just wanted to share this list of fixed currencies exchange rate for all to take note, and to avoid trading during their major news events. With DKK & HKD being more commonly traded.

http://www.investmentfrontier.com/20...xchange-rates/


Good Trading.
  • #133,622
  • Jan 19, 2015 12:06pm Jan 19, 2015 12:06pm
Quoting Dovilo
So this week I will definitely not trade on CHF pairs for obvious reason. There is also important ECB meeting where three situations can happen: - ECB will introduce big QE (~1 trilion EUR) - ECB will introduce normal QE (~500 bilion EUR) - ECB will not introduce QE at all yet. Markets are suspecting normal or even big QE and it is mostly in the price already but I'm not so sure it will happen so I will not trade EUR pairs in before ECB meeting. I see there is short time USD weakness, I will enter long on USD when I will see good price action. Pairs...
Hi Dovilo! if it's not difficult, explain few things.
How you trade breakout of S/R:you have breakdown S/R on D1 and wait PA on retracement on H4,H1)?
Why you draw level 0,8395 on AUDUSD and 1,53 on GBPUSD?
Thanks!
  • #133,623
  • Jan 19, 2015 12:28pm Jan 19, 2015 12:28pm
Quoting protuberanec
{quote} Hi Dovilo! if it's not difficult, explain few things. How you trade breakout of S/R:you have breakdown S/R on D1 and wait PA on retracement on H4,H1)? Why you draw level 0,8395 on AUDUSD and 1,53 on GBPUSD? Thanks!
Both. For normal S/R I use breakouts and retracement but for very important ones I use only retracement.

On AUD/USD:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDmicroWeekly.png Size: 53 KB


On GBP/USD:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDmicroWeekly.png Size: 64 KB
  • #133,624
  • Jan 19, 2015 1:49pm Jan 19, 2015 1:49pm
Quoting Dovilo
{quote} Both. For normal S/R I use breakouts and retracement but for very important ones I use only retracement. On AUD/USD: {image} On GBP/USD: {image}
Thanks. for breakout you use only BRC (Breakout-retrace-continuation) with PA or use and another technics?
  • #133,625
  • Jan 19, 2015 3:20pm Jan 19, 2015 3:20pm
I am testing how price behaves at important levels. I am going to use my practice account to test price levels. Once I confirm that levels influence the flow of price we can use them to add confluence to the trade setup. I am not comfortable to use more than 2 criteria to support PA as it may be an over kill. The most important thing in trading may be to keep it simple. Simplicity is one thing that I think trumps every other thing in trading. If someone comes to me and explains something and if it is too hard then I assume that something is wrong with that strategy. There are exceptions of course such as quantum mechanics which is complex and involves math but the basic principles even in this arcane subject are simple and based on the laws of symmetry.

And I have seen some trading videos by James in this thread and in the paid forum and I think he is the best.
  • #133,626
  • Jan 20, 2015 11:17am Jan 20, 2015 11:17am
I suddenly got a strange idea out of nowhere. I was thinking about the CHF spike and got an idea that if FIB is right then it should explain the spike or relate to it in some way. So I opened the charts and randomly selected one CHF pair and to my surprise found that the spike is expected on FIBS. Once the price broke the 23.6 and 7800 BRN the price went to the next expected destination according to FIBS and this is 0 percent level at 7000. The FIB even trumped the next support and resistance level at 7200. I think this is amazing....assuming SNB just removed the peg and the price settles down at the FIB level. The FIBS are drawn on the monthly chart.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 64 KB
  • #133,627
  • Jan 20, 2015 4:35pm Jan 20, 2015 4:35pm
I was following this trade with a pin bar on weekly but reluctant to take this trade because the price in running into a major ppz. Pin bar is good but the ppz may kill this trade. I have never traded this pair before but I am not focusing on pairs now but just looking for good setups. I would plan to enter this if it breaks 315 BRN as that may run giving me a break even.

Just looked at the monthly chart for this and jeez looks like a classic J16.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 59 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot2.png Size: 53 KB
  • #133,628
  • Jan 21, 2015 10:37am Jan 21, 2015 10:37am
started my new year with two small losses but today was nice and well made up for them

Key is always keeping those losses small!

Here are a couple of my closed trades today

touch trade on massive support area after false break in major PPZ

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1-19-2015 9-07-49 PM.gif Size: 28 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1-21-2015 11-00-55 AM.png Size: 54 KB


1hr beob breakout on clean support. Traded it to the Daily channel

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1-21-2015 11-16-59 AM.png Size: 31 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1-21-2015 11-28-16 AM.png Size: 26 KB
  • #133,629
  • Jan 21, 2015 11:41am Jan 21, 2015 11:41am
Quoting mbqb11
{image} {image} 1hr beob breakout on clean support. Traded it to the Daily channel {image} {image}
Hi, mbqb
Why small take profit?
  • #133,630
  • Jan 21, 2015 12:50pm Jan 21, 2015 12:50pm
Quoting bleur
{quote} Hi, mbqb Why small take profit?
Hey Bleur

Small is all relative. This trade gave me a little over 1% gain on my account. That's nothing to call small in my eyes. Just a few of these and a couple of runners and you can build a very healthy account.

In terms of technicals we can see the beob is trading right back into a strong support of massive divergence on the daily channel. So it's more of a matter of taking profit at smart areas then looking at things any other way. My risk on this one was very small too so it offered a nice opportunity

Hope that helps
Mike
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1-21-2015 1-47-12 PM.png Size: 38 KB
  • #133,631
  • Jan 21, 2015 1:53pm Jan 21, 2015 1:53pm
Quoting mbqb11
{quote} Hey Bleur Small is all relative. This trade gave me a little over 1% gain on my account. {image}
Thanks Mike
What would you do if the price went against you? your SL ~100 pips
  • #133,632
  • Jan 21, 2015 2:53pm Jan 21, 2015 2:53pm
Quoting bleur
{quote} Thanks Mike What would you do if the price went against you? your SL ~100 pips
Hey B

My initial stop loss to get my position size is based on the entire bar. But then I moved my stop immediately above the retrace high at 7630 which gave me a risk of about 20 pips in this case

This is crucial for my trading and I call it dynamic risk:reward as you will see in this thread

Best
Mike
  • #133,633
  • Jan 21, 2015 6:01pm Jan 21, 2015 6:01pm
Hi.

I trade equities and use a swing low reversal pattern ie low, lower low, higher low. I enter when price is at support and is showing strong divergence.
I'm just wondering why this thread doesn't contain this reversal pattern is in essence it is almost the definition of a perfect swing point.


All thoughts appreciated. Thanks
  • #133,634
  • Jan 21, 2015 8:02pm Jan 21, 2015 8:02pm
It seems like I missed out on a good trade on EUR/USD. The price broke the major PPZ 1.20000 on this chart and before that it posted a bearish engulfing so there was some PA support. It is not easy for the price to bounce back into a major PPZ such as this and thus gives the room for the trade to run and when it establishes a new step we can move the stop loss to break even. Probably some of them might have taken this trade. I dont see much of an impact though euro has announced quantitative easing.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 54 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot2.png Size: 54 KB
  • #133,635
  • Jan 21, 2015 8:20pm Jan 21, 2015 8:20pm
Quoting mbqb11
{quote} Hey Bleur Small is all relative. This trade gave me a little over 1% gain on my account. That's nothing to call small in my eyes. Just a few of these and a couple of runners and you can build a very healthy account. In terms of technicals we can see the beob is trading right back into a strong support of massive divergence on the daily channel. So it's more of a matter of taking profit at smart areas then looking at things any other way. My risk on this one was very small too so it offered a nice opportunity Hope that helps Mike {image}

Mike

1% increase on trades is really good and when you consider compounding the account grows quickly. Now my question is did you use PA on the hourly chart to enter the trade on Daily channel. Because I dont see the beob on the Daily.
  • #133,636
  • Jan 21, 2015 10:33pm Jan 21, 2015 10:33pm
Hi Mike,

Sometimes I can see the good story in Chart pattern and have a confident that price will reach the expected level, but during that period PA bar not formed as expected even though in lower time frame also.. The decision based on factors like S/R line, Fib, breakout..Most of times price reached my expected level.

So, i may say that primarily focus on story and if i am have confident, PA bar is not part of it.

My guessing is right?? i expect your input.

Adhav
  • #133,637
  • Jan 22, 2015 2:30am Jan 22, 2015 2:30am
Quoting Adhavan
Hi Mike, Sometimes I can see the good story in Chart pattern and have a confident that price will reach the expected level, but during that period PA bar not formed as expected even though in lower time frame also.. The decision based on factors like S/R line, Fib, breakout..Most of times price reached my expected level. So, i may say that primarily focus on story and if i am have confident, PA bar is not part of it. My guessing is right?? i expect your input. Adhav
Hi Ad,

Not Mike, but that's a question I've had for quite some time.
It bugged me to wait for a PA at a specific level, PA that never came while price reacted the way I forecasted.

My change in mind came from some remarks made by others in this thread.
Basically, I stopped considering these as missed opportunities, but as a way to enhance my learning and understanding (it's rewarding to see price behaving the way you expected, and it's a major plus to understand why price did not act the way I thought), while I maintained trading only price reaction where a PA setup would confirm my forecast. Price action bars are "only" this in my eyes: a confirmation of price reacting at a level, so another piece of the story - but not the story in itself.

Just my way of trading, of course. As they say, we all trade our beliefs, and mine are in no way better than anybody elses
There is nothing wrong in trading touches of levels, it just doesn't work for me...

Take care
Slow & steady
  • #133,638
  • Edited 8:51am Jan 22, 2015 4:18am | Edited 8:51am
Hi everyone

I'm sort of new - last time I properly looked in to this thread was over 5 years ago when I was thinking about starting to trade. After waiting a little bit , I have now set up to start trading small, and I'm planning on learning via J16 and Mike.

Just marking up some charts and this popped up on gold - daily pin:

Edit: I'm in this one - sold at 1302 - decided to fade the ECB reaction after waiting it out for a while. Obviously, I have a tight stop above 1306.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Gold 220115.png Size: 34 KB


Interestingly, I also noticed a DBHLC on the 4 hr around the same time as the daily pin when I looked again.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Gold 220115A.png Size: 26 KB
  • #133,639
  • Jan 22, 2015 4:49am Jan 22, 2015 4:49am
Also looking for some PA on AUD/USD for a buy if it presents itself (not sure I'd sell a break of 0.7960) - looks like a small daily pin may be forming at a significant level.
  • #133,640
  • Jan 22, 2015 5:46am Jan 22, 2015 5:46am
I have netted 60 pips on this one so far but not enough to move my stop to break even. It seems like the spread is too large for unconventional pairs and this makes it hard to take them unless the setup is really good

Without PA it can be very treacherous to trade because without one being aware of that trading can easily turn into gambling. That means you can lose your shirt. It may take years before the intuition and expertise can be honed to a level where one can take touch trades. Definitely not for the beginner in my opinion.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 60 KB
49 traders viewing now