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Dragon Riders GBP/JPY

  • #2,761
  • Jan 15, 2015 1:12pm Jan 15, 2015 1:12pm
Quoting Hickson
{quote} Hello Hulk, looks like you finally found the right thread for Geppy
A good trader follows his rules, but great trader knows when to break them
  • #2,762
  • Jan 15, 2015 1:15pm Jan 15, 2015 1:15pm
Quoting Temujin
{quote} Harmonics? A crab, a bat or what is it? How do you draw those?
I have butterfly, butterfly extension, and deep crab.

Off the desk.
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File Type: pdf neoHarmonicsCheatSheet.pdf   5.8 MB | 1,062 downloads
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #2,763
  • Jan 15, 2015 1:41pm Jan 15, 2015 1:41pm
Ok, another SO BE, this time long LOL ... no fun trading atm, I will just close shop ... so glad I was not short CHF today. Gn8!
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #2,764
  • Jan 15, 2015 1:49pm Jan 15, 2015 1:49pm
Just for the records: Ok for a black swan event day:

Given the amount of pips made, I was clearly underleveraged on that trade ... something that rarely happens lol
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #2,765
  • Jan 15, 2015 4:19pm Jan 15, 2015 4:19pm
Quoting Hickson
Just for the records: Ok for a black swan event day: Given the amount of pips made, I was clearly underleveraged on that trade ... something that rarely happens lol {image}
Lost my option, almost but no cigar. Shorted near the close of N.Y. @ 176.95. Made 100 pips. Will close as soon as the spread tightens at the Tokyo open.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #2,766
  • Jan 15, 2015 4:26pm Jan 15, 2015 4:26pm
How low can she go . Can you smell the FEAR yet?? Markets are frea frea freaKING out. The risk off is making me giddy inside!

Fib level?
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  • #2,767
  • Jan 15, 2015 11:31pm Jan 15, 2015 11:31pm
Judging from RSI and MACD in H4 chart, there may be room from some upwards trend in the coming week, although the pair hit new lows at 175.75/77 MACD has failed to create new lows in H4. However it could easily hit 175 support and maybe 173.5 based on ECB and Japan's info next week being positive. Any thoughts on this?
  • #2,768
  • Jan 16, 2015 12:11am Jan 16, 2015 12:11am
Quoting cdcalva
Judging from RSI and MACD in H4 chart, there may be room from some upwards trend in the coming week, although the pair hit new lows at 175.75/77 MACD has failed to create new lows in H4. However it could easily hit 175 support and maybe 173.5 based on ECB and Japan's info next week being positive. Any thoughts on this?
Don't catch a falling knife. Especially when we've just recently had a black swan event. I wouldn't go long unless we see a clear signal. There's just too much volatility and panic over the the SNB opening the gates on the 1.24 floor. This also means that RSI and MACD are less accurate than usual as markets are run by sentiments (or more specifically, panic)

Overall trend is long. The only question is where do we get in to maximize profit. But overall, I don't think a breach of 173/172 is likely; if you've got a margin that can withstand a drop down to 168, you can go long right now, leave the charts, and come back in a month or two to profit.
  • #2,769
  • Jan 16, 2015 12:17am Jan 16, 2015 12:17am
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} Don't catch a falling knife. Especially when we've just recently had a black swan event. I wouldn't go long unless we see a clear signal. There's just too much volatility and panic over the the SNB opening the gates on the 1.24 floor.
Im just considering when to enter long, not sure if we would bottom to 2014 lows of 165/68, but I did miss a long term opportunity in October so I am trying to clean that mistake, what are your thoughts on bottoming around last year's lows? Or do you think a major support will be formed somewhere around 173/71?
  • #2,770
  • Jan 16, 2015 12:49am Jan 16, 2015 12:49am
Quoting cdcalva
{quote} Im just considering when to enter long, not sure if we would bottom to 2014 lows of 165/68, but I did miss a long term opportunity in October so I am trying to clean that mistake, what are your thoughts on bottoming around last year's lows? Or do you think a major support will be formed somewhere around 173/71?
For bottoming out at the most recent support/major rejection (168), I doubt it. Even after market makers sold the previous 180 top (which was done by speculation in the Scottish referendum), we saw a major rejection at 168. Moving below 168 would invalidate overall bullish trend, and unless we see another black swan like today's SNB (or to put it more succinctly, a clusterfuck of epic proportions), it is very unlikely.

We're approaching the price levels when BoJ just announced a surprise QE out of nowhere (it was back in Oct 30 or something like that depending on your time zone). That was around 175. All shorts right now should take a majority of their profits at that level or lock in their profits, because we'll see a bounce on that area. The only question is whether things bottom out there or from below.

After that, the next major, major support should be around 173. It was a former resistance that was tested several times over the course of the past year and became established support. Definitely some support on 173. I can't imagine the prices simply ignoring that area after lurching past the BoJ announcement price of 175 (which kickstarted most of the major bullish movement forward). We'll definitely see a bounce there at the very least; enough to scalp a long.

Remember: Japan just sank into recession. That'll always be on people's mind for the overall term, since Japan's current economic pitfall isn't one that the country can dig itself out in one or two years.

If we see anywhere near 173, I'm taking a decent long. It's a good place to hedge bets.
  • #2,771
  • Jan 16, 2015 12:54am Jan 16, 2015 12:54am
I can't tell whether 177 is going to get rejected or not...technically, anything below 178 is still bearish for me....but we've got a LOT of sellers at 177 (specifically 177.1), and I don't want to miss a 200 pip drop to 175.

I'll probably sideline GBP/JPY unless major decision points are triggered. Next week, all eyes are on the ECB decision with the QE. I get a really bad feeling about it, given that the SNB sank the eur/chf floor right when ECB meetings are on the horizon. It will definitely move the entire forex market, not just the euro pairs.

If the Swiss's decision to abandon the euro is any indication, then we just might see a similar thing for euro.......or maybe not. Who knows.
  • #2,772
  • Jan 16, 2015 1:02am Jan 16, 2015 1:02am
Quoting Vermillion
I can't tell whether 177 is going to get rejected or not...technically, anything below 178 is still bearish for me....but we've got a LOT of sellers at 177 (specifically 177.1), and I don't want to miss a 200 pip drop to 175. I'll probably sideline GBP/JPY unless major decision points are triggered. Next week, all eyes are on the ECB decision with the QE. I get a really bad feeling about it, given that the SNB sank the eur/chf floor right when ECB meetings are on the horizon. It will definitely move the entire forex market, not just the euro pairs....
Thanks a lot, I'm pretty familiar with this pair as I've been trading it and following for over a year and a half now, so couldn't agree more with you, I just like asking in the forum to see what people think in the mid term, always like a good comment/discussion so thanks a lot for that, hopefully it bottoms at 173 so we can all get a decent long and also that there is no major clusterfuck lol. Being honest so far into the year, there have quite a few surprises already. Happy trading!
  • #2,773
  • Jan 16, 2015 2:18am Jan 16, 2015 2:18am
Pending SHORT GJ 177.790 SL a few above TP open
A good trader follows his rules, but great trader knows when to break them
  • #2,774
  • Jan 16, 2015 3:15am Jan 16, 2015 3:15am
Quoting ill_be_back
Pending SHORT GJ 177.790 SL a few above TP open
Hi, are you trading this mess? What do you think about next week when BOJ and ECB will probably add to the craziness?
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #2,775
  • Jan 16, 2015 3:32am Jan 16, 2015 3:32am
Quoting Hickson
{quote} Hi, are you trading this mess? What do you think about next week when BOJ and ECB will probably add to the craziness?
Big Boys to bring this DOWN More before BIG UP
A good trader follows his rules, but great trader knows when to break them
  • #2,776
  • Jan 16, 2015 3:40am Jan 16, 2015 3:40am
Quoting ill_be_back
{quote} Big Boys to bring this DOWN More before BIG UP
Seems likely ... did you sell EUR/CHF yesterday?
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #2,777
  • Jan 16, 2015 3:43am Jan 16, 2015 3:43am
Quoting Hickson
{quote} Seems likely ... did you sell EUR/CHF yesterday?
No, Did u
A good trader follows his rules, but great trader knows when to break them
  • #2,778
  • Jan 16, 2015 3:48am Jan 16, 2015 3:48am
I wonder if it's gunning for 178 before going down to 175 and lower.
  • #2,779
  • Jan 16, 2015 4:04am Jan 16, 2015 4:04am
Quoting ill_be_back
{quote} No, Did u
Are you crazy?

But seriously: Thought about this, since everyone was betting the opposite direction - just with spread widening, thin liquidity and stuff you can probably also toss a coin whatever position you have there lol
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #2,780
  • Jan 16, 2015 4:04am Jan 16, 2015 4:04am
Quoting Vermillion
I wonder if it's gunning for 178 before going down to 175 and lower.
Waiting for some U/J pump ...
Fix up, trade sharp ...
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