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  • #17,001
  • Jan 15, 2015 7:02pm Jan 15, 2015 7:02pm
Quoting Temujin
{quote} If Syriza has the power and Greece leaves I read it will be like Lehman Brothers in 2008 X10. May God help us.
You always leave out the alien invasion. Isn't it time you gave them some consideration as well.
  • #17,002
  • Jan 15, 2015 7:07pm Jan 15, 2015 7:07pm
Quoting Temujin
{quote} If Syriza has the power and Greece leaves I read it will be like Lehman Brothers in 2008 X10. May God help us.
I'm not convinced a Greek exit (Grexit) would be catastrophic. It might be even viewed as positive. They are weighing down the Eurozone.

On the other hand, if it results in a domino effect (e.g. other EU countries follow suit), then it could get ugly.

Greece is just one cog in a wheel that could go very wrong.
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  • #17,003
  • Jan 15, 2015 7:11pm Jan 15, 2015 7:11pm
Quoting Mpt
{quote} You always leave out the alien invasion. Isn't it time you gave them some consideration as well.
LOL! Merkel and friends say a Grexit will be manageable but they are wrong and they know it. They are only bluffing. Syriza will take power on the 25th and then they will dictate what they want from the Troika. There will be no leaving the Euro Zone unless.................the unseen powers behind the central banks want a global economic crisis. These things are planned. There is no disorderly chaos.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #17,004
  • Jan 15, 2015 8:40pm Jan 15, 2015 8:40pm
Quoting Mpt
{quote} I agree. Whilst the 174.8 number is obvious, there would appear to be a convergence of possible support in the 174/174.4 area. From here (176.5) that suggests a further 200 ish pips to run, Whilst GJ is unclear, there is a little more obvious (and yet again - possible) support on EY about 140 or so pips down - so there may be some commonality between the pairs.
Of course, just as it approaches 174.5, it would be almost unbelievable if it didn't just dump straight through.
  • #17,005
  • Jan 15, 2015 8:45pm Jan 15, 2015 8:45pm
Ehhh. I'm eyeing 175 for my shorts to take profit and to consider loading longs. Is the small 10~30 pip difference in support at that area between several of us due to a variation in where we placed our fibonacci charts?
  • #17,006
  • Jan 15, 2015 8:51pm Jan 15, 2015 8:51pm
Quoting Vermillion
Ehhh. I'm eyeing 175 for my shorts to take profit. Is the small 10~30 pip difference in support between several of us due to a variation in where we placed our fibonacci charts?
Whilst it pays respect to fib levels, it seems to not care about them. The only fibs in this area that it gave a damn about came together in the 187/188/189 region.

And, wrt the other point/question, I use quite different methods to ascertain support/res. Fibs have hardly worked on GJ for three years.
  • #17,007
  • Jan 15, 2015 11:26pm Jan 15, 2015 11:26pm
Alright, all. Hold the fort tonight. I'll be up and at it again in the morning. Hopefully we have another eventful day
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  • #17,008
  • Jan 16, 2015 7:47am Jan 16, 2015 7:47am
Good morning, all. Ready to fight the good fight this Friday?
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  • #17,009
  • Jan 17, 2015 7:42pm Jan 17, 2015 7:42pm
Good article about the Yen here, all.

http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2015/0...-january-2015/
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  • #17,010
  • Jan 17, 2015 8:55pm Jan 17, 2015 8:55pm
UJ and GJ last week, on friday we got almost bullish candle in 1 day with lower low and lower high. but the high stil cant breach 117.9 which the strong resistance to pass. but on weekly chart, UJ seems not giving up easily for bear. i dont know if it is the continuation for bullish or probably just profit taking a week before big news (BOJ and ECB conference). anw, im shorting UJ and GJ, hopefully monday will start with the previous sentiment, down to 115.5 or even further for UJ and 175.5 for GJ
  • #17,011
  • Jan 17, 2015 9:34pm Jan 17, 2015 9:34pm
Quoting Sants
UJ and GJ last week, on friday we got almost bullish candle in 1 day with lower low and lower high. but the high stil cant breach 117.9 which the strong resistance to pass. but on weekly chart, UJ seems not giving up easily for bear. i dont know if it is the continuation for bullish or probably just profit taking a week before big news (BOJ and ECB conference). anw, im shorting UJ and GJ, hopefully monday will start with the previous sentiment, down to 115.5 or even further for UJ and 175.5 for GJ
It's hard to say, Sants. We're definitely at a decision point in Yen crosses. Hopefully we have some clarity next week, but it could be a volatile ride for the next two weeks with everything that's going on in Europe.
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  • #17,012
  • Jan 17, 2015 10:14pm Jan 17, 2015 10:14pm
Quoting Geppy
{quote} It's hard to say, Sants. We're definitely at a decision point in Yen crosses. Hopefully we have some clarity next week, but it could be a volatile ride for the next two weeks with everything that's going on in Europe.
any points you take into account to determine the bias? for UJ i got 117.9/95 as the 1st resistance (hopefully not breached next week) and 118.8 as the 2nd resistance (to be honest dont ever reach that). on the downside, i got the 116.3 the 1st support (i pray it doesnt hold and keep sliding) and the 115.5 as the 2nd support at the same time it is a major support from retracement 105.20 to 121.84 as the 38.2% level.

another things:
-days to ECB conference, a rally for EU is possible even has low probability. the EU rise will help UJ and GJ down <<<low probability UJ down
-news from ForexLive there is a say inside the BOJ starting to worry if QE really helping to boost the inflation while yen keep depreciating which hurt some business such as insurance company. neutral tone from BOJ this week may delay the UJ bullish <<<firm probability UJ down
-as previous news says that Yen is 6 over 24 drove by fundamental reasons and the other by speculative trading <<<high probability of going nowhere

  • #17,013
  • Jan 17, 2015 11:36pm Jan 17, 2015 11:36pm
Quoting Sants
{quote} any points you take into account to determine the bias? for UJ i got 117.9/95 as the 1st resistance (hopefully not breached next week) and 118.8 as the 2nd resistance (to be honest dont ever reach that). on the downside, i got the 116.3 the 1st support (i pray it doesnt hold and keep sliding) and the 115.5 as the 2nd support at the same time it is a major support from retracement 105.20 to 121.84 as the 38.2% level. another things: -days to ECB conference, a rally for EU is possible even has low probability. the EU rise will help UJ and...
UJ and GJ will probably go up next week, buy the rumor sell the fact. I would expect an up week going into BOJ then either a very big breakout upwards or huge drop as BOJ dissapoints. Either way It's going to go up to shake out shorters that have been accumulating the past week or two and also those who were short will be scaling out of positions especially going into this next week to help limit risk. No free rides from the big boys, they'll push the price up so no one will know what to think (continuation of upward trend?,bottom in place?, breakout to the downside? reversal???) All the different news sites will be spewing every different angle and what ifs?. Just my outlook for the week ahead, of course we will see what happens once markets open.
  • #17,014
  • Jan 18, 2015 9:31am Jan 18, 2015 9:31am
Quoting Sants
{quote} any points you take into account to determine the bias? for UJ i got 117.9/95 as the 1st resistance (hopefully not breached next week) and 118.8 as the 2nd resistance (to be honest dont ever reach that). on the downside, i got the 116.3 the 1st support (i pray it doesnt hold and keep sliding) and the 115.5 as the 2nd support at the same time it is a major support from retracement 105.20 to 121.84 as the 38.2% level. another things: -days to ECB conference, a rally for EU is possible even has low probability. the EU rise will help UJ and...
What bias is that, Sants? I don't have a bias in Yen crosses at all right now, and I'll be posting my thoughts on the week ahead on my blog at 12:00pm PST today.
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  • #17,015
  • Jan 18, 2015 10:50am Jan 18, 2015 10:50am
Quoting Geppy
{quote} What bias is that, Sants? I don't have a bias in Yen crosses at all right now, and I'll be posting my thoughts on the week ahead on my blog at 12:00pm PST today.
i mean the key levels to determine wether go up or go down

Quoting thegmann
{quote} UJ and GJ will probably go up next week, buy the rumor sell the fact. I would expect an up week going into BOJ then either a very big breakout upwards or huge drop as BOJ dissapoints. Either way It's going to go up to shake out shorters that have been accumulating the past week or two and also those who were short will be scaling out of positions especially going into this next week to help limit risk. No free rides from the big boys, they'll push the price up so no one will know what to think (continuation of upward trend?,bottom in place?,...
hm, EUR qe issue has been hovering inside of many traders and even big boys for even months. supposed to be this is not going to be easy drop for EU. big boys has planned it. when the qe announced, retail trader just straighly sell the EUR in big amount. IF IN CASE, big boys all over the world gathered and make a deal to face the whole market, EU is not going to be down for very short term but going up enough to blown shorts account and thats gonna be a big party for all big boys if they think they are high enough to reposition into short, double profit. anw, if it is true, mind-blown level 999

edit: awts sorry we're talking about UJ and GJ not EU, my bad

yea on friday, JPY has kicked so hard straight to the head. EU up, UJ up, CHFJPY up, GJ up, the cash flows to chf mostly in fact, UCHF and ECHF down hundreds. IMHO, last friday is profit taking from the urgent cash. but what bother my mind is, why the trader doesnt pick JPY as the safe haven instead of USD now. if its JPY, uj and gj supposed to be fall, but not CHFJPY
  • #17,016
  • Jan 18, 2015 6:56pm Jan 18, 2015 6:56pm
Hey all, got my weekly outlook posted for this week: http://www.forexmademillionaire.com/...iew-1-18-2015/
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  • #17,017
  • Jan 18, 2015 7:38pm Jan 18, 2015 7:38pm
Too early to say, but gj now is down. Perhaps 174.7 passed and rally upward continue
  • #17,018
  • Jan 18, 2015 7:49pm Jan 18, 2015 7:49pm
Quoting Sants
Too early to say, but gj now is down. Perhaps 174.7 passed and rally upward continue
Definitely weak on the open, but liquidity is thin. Also, tomorrow is a US banking holiday so it will probably be thin until Tuesday.
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  • #17,019
  • Jan 18, 2015 8:03pm Jan 18, 2015 8:03pm
Yeah less volatility is on. For me, the next 4h chart creating lower low and lower high or even close below 177.08, positive to 174.7
  • #17,020
  • Jan 18, 2015 8:05pm Jan 18, 2015 8:05pm
Quoting Sants
Yeah less volatility is on. For me, the next 4h chart creating lower low and lower high or even close below 177.08, positive to 174.7
It could actually result in increased volatility since the markets are so thin any jabbering from Central Banks, etc. could see more dramatic moves. But hey, nothing we aren't used to.
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