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Geppy's Geppy Thread (GBP/JPY)

  • #16,981
  • Jan 15, 2015 12:28pm Jan 15, 2015 12:28pm
Quoting thegmann
{quote} Of course, I i'm not saying my way is better. I was just pointing out why someone would be buying here.
I appreciate it, gman.

The main reason I think most of us are here is to get a different perspective than our own way of thinking. Thanks!
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  • #16,982
  • Edited 1:23pm Jan 15, 2015 1:12pm | Edited 1:23pm
I couldn't resits... just sold again at 177.13 (evidence in trade explorer).
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  • #16,983
  • Jan 15, 2015 2:58pm Jan 15, 2015 2:58pm
Gotta love it when NY runs it for fresh daily lows before heading home
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  • #16,984
  • Jan 15, 2015 4:29pm Jan 15, 2015 4:29pm
First targets hit on GBPJPY, USDJPY, and EURJPY shorts:

http://www.forexfactory.com/geppy#88-list
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  • #16,985
  • Jan 15, 2015 4:35pm Jan 15, 2015 4:35pm
Quoting Geppy
First targets hit on GBPJPY, USDJPY, and EURJPY shorts: http://www.forexfactory.com/geppy#88-list
Nice.. I believe we will hit 115.56... possibly go lower.. what are your thoughts on how low we will go? I do believe the bottom is very near for USD JPY and US markets.
  • #16,986
  • Jan 15, 2015 4:43pm Jan 15, 2015 4:43pm
Quoting Ck87
{quote} Nice.. I believe we will hit 115.56... possibly go lower.. what are your thoughts on how low we will go? I do believe the bottom is very near for USD JPY and US markets.
You believe the bottom is near for US markets when we're still so close to all-time highs? That's crazy!

The shit is just starting to hit the fan, my friend
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  • #16,987
  • Jan 15, 2015 4:48pm Jan 15, 2015 4:48pm
Quoting Geppy
{quote} You believe the bottom is near for US markets when we're still so close to all-time highs? That's crazy! The shit is just starting to hit the fan, my friend
I think you're wrong man... you can be right.. but this is a very strong bull market. And volume is clearly bullish. There's way too much money being printed world wide for this bull mkt to end. I think the lows from December will hold once they're tested on the S&P. I personally see the Dow going to 25000 sometime over the next 10 years and definitely going higher for years to come. But that's me. I was in the "it's gonna crash" camp back when it was around 1500 levels but not long after that decided this is a bull market and will go way way higher.
Though I will say USD JPY hitting 120 is pretty epic and can definitely experience a massive sell off back down to 110 even 105 if things really went nuts, and it could happen really fast too, in a matter of days/weeks. But I still think that's going to 150+ and yeah i do think bottom is near..
  • #16,988
  • Jan 15, 2015 4:56pm Jan 15, 2015 4:56pm
Quoting Ck87
{quote} I think you're wrong man... you can be right.. but this is a very strong bull market. And volume is clearly bullish. There's way too much money being printed world wide for this bull mkt to end. I think the lows from December will hold once they're tested on the S&P. I personally see the Dow going to 25000 sometime over the next 10 years and definitely going higher for years to come. But that's me. I was in the "it's gonna crash" camp back when it was around 1500 levels but not long after that decided this is a bull market and will go way...
You're saying the market will go to 25,000 "sometime in the next 10 years"? HA!!!! That's easy to say, and I believe it. 10 years is a hell of a long time. Big deal. Nobody cares about 10 years out, that's historical terms and we know what the market does over historical periods.

What's going to happen in the next 12 months is what matters to most everyone, including myself. So if you want to speculate about the market in 10 years, I suggest you hop on a dividend growth investing forum instead of a forex trading one.

If you can't look at the global economic and political risks right now and say "shit, something has got to give", then you've got your head in the sand.
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  • #16,989
  • Jan 15, 2015 4:58pm Jan 15, 2015 4:58pm
Quoting Geppy
{quote} You're saying the market will go to 25,000 "sometime in the next 10 years"? HA!!!! That's easy to say, and I believe it. 10 years is a hell of a long time. Big deal. Nobody cares about 10 years out, that's historical terms and we know what the market does over historical periods. What's going to happen in the next 12 months is what matters to most everyone, including myself. So if you want to speculate about the market in 10 years, I suggest you hop on a dividend growth investing forum instead of a forex trading one. If you can't look at...
Bull markets ignore bad news. There has been plenty of reasons why this market should have tanked and it always goes back and makes new highs. That's what makes a strong bull trend, correct? Next 12 months I believe we will be going higher but it will likely be sideways to higher and more volatile , just like we've been seeing in recent months. You're a smart guy and you clearly could be right about something big about to happen, not arguing with you at all brotha, just sharing my view, wish you the best!
  • #16,990
  • Jan 15, 2015 4:58pm Jan 15, 2015 4:58pm
Quoting Ck87
{quote} Bull markets ignore bad news. There has been plenty of reasons why this market should have tanked and it always goes back and makes new highs. That's what makes a strong bull trend, correct? Next 12 months I believe we will be going higher but it will be sideways and more volatile , just like we've been seeing in recent months.
I guess time will tell
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  • #16,991
  • Jan 15, 2015 5:04pm Jan 15, 2015 5:04pm
Quoting Geppy
{quote} I guess time will tell
Indeed my man. One thing that makes me a little cautious is that so many people are becoming bullish now on the US market... you could certainly be right.. something big may be under way...
Anyway, how ya been? You still been trading all this time?
  • #16,992
  • Jan 15, 2015 5:19pm Jan 15, 2015 5:19pm
Quoting Ck87
{quote} Indeed my man. One thing that makes me a little cautious is that so many people are becoming bullish now on the US market... you could certainly be right.. something big may be under way... Anyway, how ya been? You still been trading all this time?
- Greece potentially pulling out of Eurozone (now runs on banks: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-0...ity-assistance)

- Oil cratering... this is not at the bottom yet and we have yet to see supply cuts (in fact there have been increases, albeit small). What do you think happens when US drillers start going belly up? Who do you think holds that debt? Hint: everyone! Sound like the housing crisis yet?

- Russia, Iran, Iraq, Venezuela, and all other countries that are absolutely dependent on high oil prices. What happens when they start defaulting?

- US economy is not as rosy as painted. Job growth has been lower-end temp jobs for the most part. The emperor has no clothes, people just haven't noticed yet.

- This CHF craziness is just fuel to the fire.

- Oh, almost forgot... Bank of America whiffed on earnings this morning. They won't be the last.

- Oh, almost forgot this too... Copper is also cratering. Sure feels like the massive "deleveraging" that we went through in '08-'09, or at least the early parts of it (it gets much worse).

- Obviously, volatility is up and we're at near all-time highs in equities. All that means to me is that there's a long way to potentially drop.

No, haven't been trading all this time. Just recently back on the horse as I've been focused on my business the last 1-2 years pretty solid (and getting married and stuff like that).

Kicking the rust off in a small account (http://www.forexfactory.com/geppy#88) until I feel I've "got my groove back" and then will put some real money in it.
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  • #16,993
  • Jan 15, 2015 5:25pm Jan 15, 2015 5:25pm
Quoting Geppy
{quote} - Greece potentially pulling out of Eurozone (now runs on banks: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-0...ity-assistance) - Oil cratering... this is not at the bottom yet and we have yet to see supply cuts (in fact there have been increases, albeit small). What do you think happens when US drillers start going belly up? Who do you think holds that debt? Hint: everyone! Sound like the housing crisis yet? - Russia, Iran, Iraq, Venezuela, and all other countries that...
Cool man, I do wish you the best!
Oil I was very firm on telling every single person I know that it was going to crash. Been saying this for a year and a half and even said it on here and it was my #1 call for 2014 (although we had fake out up moves) ... I was saying oil would crash to 50. It's here now. I do think the bottom is very near, if not already in, possibly for the rest of the year, although I'm not opposed to the view that it will go lower. But I do think it will become strong in the next few weeks/months and rally back to $65. $50-$65 seems like a reasonable range for it going forward. That CHF move was completely insane today. I was pretty sure they'd remove that 1.2 floor, but didn't have a clue it would be like what we saw today.. insane. I can't imagine USD/CHF isn't close to long term bottom. I expect USD strength to continue and EUR/USD to hit 1.0 in coming years.
  • #16,994
  • Jan 15, 2015 5:26pm Jan 15, 2015 5:26pm
Quoting Geppy
{quote} - Greece potentially pulling out of Eurozone (now runs on banks: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-0...ity-assistance) - Oil cratering... this is not at the bottom yet and we have yet to see supply cuts (in fact there have been increases, albeit small). What do you think happens when US drillers start going belly up? Who do you think holds that debt? Hint: everyone! Sound like the housing crisis yet? - Russia, Iran, Iraq, Venezuela, and all other countries that...
I am still awake, reading lots of articles on the madness ... even though I did not get hurt by all the bullets flying around today I cannot really sleep. Living in Europe, today will have an impact for sure. It was not so big on the news as far as I have seen and probably most people do not know about it while chatting on Facebook or whatever. When Greece will pull out of the Euro and next week we will have talks of the BOJ AND Draghi it could really become ugly. Leverage low and stops tight or best no trading at all until this gets to at least a bit like a normal market again ...
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #16,995
  • Jan 15, 2015 5:27pm Jan 15, 2015 5:27pm
Quoting Ck87
{quote} Cool man, I do wish you the best! Oil I was very firm on telling every single person I know that it was going to crash. Been saying this for a year and a half and even said it on here and it was my #1 call for 2014 (although we had fake out up moves) ... I was saying oil would crash to 50. It's here now. I do think the bottom is very near, if not already in, possibly for the rest of the year, although I'm not opposed to the view that it will go lower. But I do think it will become strong in the next few weeks/months and rally back to $65....
I don't see the oil mess being over (or near bottom) until at least there is massive carnage with drillers and OPEC states they're cutting production. No signs of either yet. I don't think $30 or $20 even is out of the realm of possibilities. We'll see.

Heck, you may have talked me into selling some S&P futures tomorrow. Maybe wait until Monday though
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  • #16,996
  • Jan 15, 2015 5:28pm Jan 15, 2015 5:28pm
Quoting Hickson
{quote} I am still awake, reading lots of articles on the madness ... even though I did not get hurt by all the bullets flying around today I cannot really sleep. Living in Europe, today will have an impact for sure. It was not so big on the news as far as I have seen and probably most people do not know about it while chatting on Facebook or whatever. When Greece will pull out of the Euro and next week we will have talks of the BOJ AND Draghi it could really become ugly. Leverage low and stops tight or best no trading at all until this gets to...
Yeah, lots to read Hickson.

I don't know that a Greece exit is a slam dunk yet. You just never know (until you know that is). All I can say to everyone is to stay vigilant if you're going to be trading.
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  • #16,997
  • Jan 15, 2015 6:35pm Jan 15, 2015 6:35pm
Good read here, all: http://ashraflaidi.com/forex-news/1-...-after-the-snb

Especially where he talks about Japan and the Yen.
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  • #16,998
  • Jan 15, 2015 6:40pm Jan 15, 2015 6:40pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #16,999
  • Jan 15, 2015 6:59pm Jan 15, 2015 6:59pm
Quoting Hickson
{quote} I am still awake, reading lots of articles on the madness ... even though I did not get hurt by all the bullets flying around today I cannot really sleep. Living in Europe, today will have an impact for sure. It was not so big on the news as far as I have seen and probably most people do not know about it while chatting on Facebook or whatever. When Greece will pull out of the Euro and next week we will have talks of the BOJ AND Draghi it could really become ugly. Leverage low and stops tight or best no trading at all until this gets to...
If Syriza has the power and Greece leaves I read it will be like Lehman Brothers in 2008 X10. May God help us.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #17,000
  • Jan 15, 2015 7:01pm Jan 15, 2015 7:01pm
Quoting Dano12
{image}
I agree. Whilst the 174.8 number is obvious, there would appear to be a convergence of possible support in the 174/174.4 area. From here (176.5) that suggests a further 200 ish pips to run, Whilst GJ is unclear, there is a little more obvious (and yet again - possible) support on EY about 140 or so pips down - so there may be some commonality between the pairs.
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