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Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade

  • #11,881
  • Jan 14, 2015 5:33pm Jan 14, 2015 5:33pm
Quoting Wolves77
Got burnt three times today, going with short term order flow. Order flow is still my big area of confusion, never quite sure whether to go with long term or short term. Despite this still had a just over BE and one big winner, so even with three full losses still ended up only slightly down. The final trade was in the same vein as the other two, but was made out of stupidity and frustration. really need to cut that out. The chart is a fresh chart with just the basics of those 2 losers, can anyone suggest why these were not good to take, other...
I'm sorry I don't have the ability to pull up that chart so I can't help you.
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #11,882
  • Jan 14, 2015 9:29pm Jan 14, 2015 9:29pm
Hello Mr.Pips & all Traders,

Potential trade EurAud

ABCD, Gartley in progress
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  • #11,883
  • Jan 14, 2015 9:30pm Jan 14, 2015 9:30pm
First trade for day UJ. Took due to the amount of resistance in hrly chart, falling hrly TL (that can be seen) and a minor Fib level. I will probably cover this fairly aggressively due to bullish momentum.
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As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #11,884
  • Jan 14, 2015 9:51pm Jan 14, 2015 9:51pm
Quoting Wolves77
Got burnt three times today, going with short term order flow. Order flow is still my big area of confusion, never quite sure whether to go with long term or short term. Despite this still had a just over BE and one big winner, so even with three full losses still ended up only slightly down. The final trade was in the same vein as the other two, but was made out of stupidity and frustration. really need to cut that out. The chart is a fresh chart with just the basics of those 2 losers, can anyone suggest why these were not good to take, other...
I'm with Mr Pip in that I don't have the chart so can't give a concise answer but I did notice something. Prior to your trade there were 4 strong bearish candles so by the time it hit the Fib level there would have been some exhaustion that was reflected in the strong bull candle. Imo this shouldn't be taken as bull strength but rather a chance for the bears to take a breath. Unless there is a reason to trade aggressive such as strong confluence or confirmation of a pattern setup etc, then more confirmation is needed. Sure the bull candle was strong on the up swing but by the time it hit the Fib level on the way back down its gains were evaporated which can also be considered a bearish reversal sign.

It's easy to pick apart a trade in hindsight but when the market is moving it can sometimes be difficult to analyse and there's no "right or wrong", I may of well taken the same trade if I were in your shoes.
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #11,885
  • Jan 14, 2015 10:19pm Jan 14, 2015 10:19pm
Quoting Matts Micro
First trade for day UJ. Took due to the amount of resistance in hrly chart, falling hrly TL (that can be seen) and a minor Fib level. I will probably cover this fairly aggressively due to bullish momentum. {image}
I took a trade on the same pair, but I waited for a pullback to confirm weakness. It pulled back and failed just above the 50% fib, so looking at an AB=CD (shown on the Ninja Trader picture). On the long term order flow, this pull back was into the 61.8% as shown in the MT4 picture below.
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Damn The Torpedoes, Full Speed Ahead!
  • #11,886
  • Jan 14, 2015 10:20pm Jan 14, 2015 10:20pm
Quoting Matts Micro
First trade for day UJ. Took due to the amount of resistance in hrly chart, falling hrly TL (that can be seen) and a minor Fib level. I will probably cover this fairly aggressively due to bullish momentum. {image}
I wasn't as aggressive with my stop as I said I was going to be due to the strong move down however PA came back up sharply as I had first suspected and only took a small profit of 5 pips. I missed a lot of profit and not one of my finest moments. The reversal could however make a confirmation pattern with a H&S that would allow me to re-enter the trade.
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As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #11,887
  • Jan 14, 2015 10:36pm Jan 14, 2015 10:36pm
Quoting DizzleFX
{quote} I took a trade on the same pair, but I waited for a pullback to confirm weakness. It pulled back and failed just above the 50% fib, so looking at an AB=CD (shown on the Ninja Trader picture). On the long term order flow, this pull back was into the 61.8% as shown in the MT4 picture below. {image} {image}
closed position for +3. Bullish bar on the tick chart on was my sign to exit
Damn The Torpedoes, Full Speed Ahead!
  • #11,888
  • Jan 14, 2015 11:24pm Jan 14, 2015 11:24pm
Quoting DizzleFX
{quote} closed position for +3. Bullish bar on the tick chart on was my sign to exit
Yer it's a bit indecisive atm but I think PA is challenging the falling hrly TL for a bo topside.
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #11,889
  • Jan 14, 2015 11:27pm Jan 14, 2015 11:27pm
Quoting Matts Micro
{quote} Yer it's a bit indecisive atm but I think PA is challenging the falling hrly TL for a bo topside.
This is were the patience comes into play!
Damn The Torpedoes, Full Speed Ahead!
  • #11,890
  • Jan 15, 2015 2:09am Jan 15, 2015 2:09am
Quoting Wolves77
Got burnt three times today, going with short term order flow. Order flow is still my big area of confusion, never quite sure whether to go with long term or short term. Despite this still had a just over BE and one big winner, so even with three full losses still ended up only slightly down. The final trade was in the same vein as the other two, but was made out of stupidity and frustration. really need to cut that out. The chart is a fresh chart with just the basics of those 2 losers, can anyone suggest why these were not good to take, other...
Hopefully I am not offensive to anyone but this is how I see the Dax on 14 jan 2015 Hopes it will help you Wolve
If Mr Pip can verify one and another , I would be grateful . I know its not 100% conform his method , but plenty of possible trades to make (89 Tick chart German dax)
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  • #11,891
  • Jan 15, 2015 3:03am Jan 15, 2015 3:03am
Quoting Wolves77
Got burnt three times today, going with short term order flow. Order flow is still my big area of confusion, never quite sure whether to go with long term or short term. Despite this still had a just over BE and one big winner, so even with three full losses still ended up only slightly down. The final trade was in the same vein as the other two, but was made out of stupidity and frustration. really need to cut that out. The chart is a fresh chart with just the basics of those 2 losers, can anyone suggest why these were not good to take, other...
Hi Wolves77,

Regarding long term and short term order flow I use long term for overall expectation and short term for entry/exit points (areas of exhaustion) but I would also like to hear Mr. Pips thoughts on this.
Looking at your chart we can see that long term order flow is bullish but the bulls look exhausted (a very deep correction with a strong bear candle). From there bulls only managed to reach structure without making a NSH (9900 area) and then falled over. This tells me that we are in a area of exhaustion and most likely we will test the 9765 area again. Will we see a NSL? Perhaps but bulls found more support than I expected last time it was tested.

With that said I wanna second Matts Micro thoughts on exhaustion and this is also why we sometimes rather sacrifice a few pips and get a less than ideal entry for confirmation that price wants to reverse.
Rise and rise again until lambs become lions
  • #11,892
  • Jan 15, 2015 4:10am Jan 15, 2015 4:10am
On the sidelines after the big players going haywire on SNB news. Didn't think it would affect GBPUSD as it did but learned the hard way. -11 pips for the day. Will wait till things settle before I look for trades.
Rise and rise again until lambs become lions
  • #11,893
  • Edited 5:05am Jan 15, 2015 4:50am | Edited 5:05am
Quoting Mr. Pip
{quote} I want you all to post this years performance if you don't mind sharing. This will encourage and motivate everyone.
For results trading this style only...
Tuesday and first half of Wednesday on Demo to get back in the swing(!) of things +58 pips:
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Second half of Wednesday and today on Real +55 pips:
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  • #11,894
  • Jan 15, 2015 4:57am Jan 15, 2015 4:57am
Quoting Mr_Burns
On the sidelines after the big players going haywire on SNB news. Didn't think it would affect GBPUSD as it did but learned the hard way. -11 pips for the day. Will wait till things settle before I look for trades.
It certainly got my attention when the news hit!
  • #11,895
  • Jan 15, 2015 5:00am Jan 15, 2015 5:00am
Quoting Mr_Burns
On the sidelines after the big players going haywire on SNB news. Didn't think it would affect GBPUSD as it did but learned the hard way. -11 pips for the day. Will wait till things settle before I look for trades.
Yeah me too, keep just watching as the markets are a little crazy at the moment and I am struggling to pull the trigger. EURUSD is a little too volatile for me at the moment, think if I trade it will be a losing one so just watching for now.

GBPUSD is looking more likely for a trade at the moment, very much in a range and looking for a NSL on the short term soonish, then I may be looking for a trade if the bulls can gather up some strength.
  • #11,896
  • Jan 15, 2015 5:53am Jan 15, 2015 5:53am
Quoting PipTrendz
{quote} EURUSD is a little too volatile for me at the moment, think if I trade it will be a losing one so just watching for now.
It certainly is difficult to read at the moment.
I left +40 pips on the table with a bullish move when I wasn't paying attention. I settled for a conservative +20 on the downside.
My apologies if I've introduced any concepts outside the scope of the thread - I'm happy to remove if necessary.
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  • #11,897
  • Jan 15, 2015 6:22am Jan 15, 2015 6:22am
Okay so I just lost connection on my charts when about to make a demo trade so the charts had to load up. When they did they almost looked like different charts!! I am running with an FXCM demo account on NT and on 233 ticks. When it reloaded there were loads more candles than before.

So why is this happening? Is it because it is a demo account so the data is not as good, is it my internet (which is okay but slow at times)?

Is anyone else seeing this or having this kind of problem?

Really frustrating as a trade I took this morning and lost 10 pips would have been a BE trade as I would have got in earlier.
  • #11,898
  • Jan 15, 2015 6:29am Jan 15, 2015 6:29am
Quoting PipTrendz
Okay so I just lost connection on my charts when about to make a demo trade so the charts had to load up. When they did they almost looked like different charts!! I am running with an FXCM demo account on NT and on 233 ticks. When it reloaded there were loads more candles than before. So why is this happening? Is it because it is a demo account so the data is not as good, is it my internet (which is okay but slow at times)? Is anyone else seeing this or having this kind of problem? Really frustrating as a trade I took this morning and lost 10 pips...
A speculative guess because I don't know the inner workings of NT, but it could be something to do with how NT generates the tick charts from the data it receives from FXCM.
There must be a tick that it considers to be #1, and if NT is redrawing the charts then the start point could be significantly different particularly given today's events.
  • #11,899
  • Jan 15, 2015 6:43am Jan 15, 2015 6:43am
Yeah I was thinking it was to do with my internet mainly. Thinking the ticks are broadcast and if for whatever reason my internet misses them then NT will only process the data it receives. Although when loading a new chart it loads all the historic data meaning it doesnt miss any pips.

Anyway here is my first losing trade of the day, down 10 pips.

Initially I missed an earlier trade to the upside and resisted the urge to get in later, even though it would have paid off it is against my rules for entry. If I miss then I wait until it completes.

Then the trade I took was in an area where price had a strong reaction earlier in the day and I entered at the red line to sell. My chart at the time only showed all the 4 bearish candles leading up to my entry as 1 and as per my rules I waited until the candle completed. If I got in earlier I would have had my stops to BE, possibly BE+2.

Looking to manage it really tight I was going to move my stop to -5 and probably should of done so would have only lost 5.
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Edit: I might just move to the 5 min chart to try to eliminate this issue as candles will not rely on ticks.
  • #11,900
  • Jan 15, 2015 6:52am Jan 15, 2015 6:52am
Well, a painful day for me after all despite dodging the SNB fiasco.
On my real account I have an emergency SL lodged with my broker. It is well out the way because I close my trades manually.
Internet went down while the trade was slightly in profit, shortly after entry.
When the internet came back again, the emergency SL had been hit.
-36 pips rather than the -5 if I had been able to manage the trade myself.
But without the emergency SL, and if the internet had been down for longer, it could have been far worse.
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