Multi-Lot Multi-Timeframe Position trading | Page 34 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

building multi-pair multi-timeframe scanner 48 replies

Multi timeframe multi chart 13 replies

Timeframe inside current timeframe - is that possible? 2 replies

Seeing higher timeframe indicators on lower timeframe 4 replies

BUY run profit 1 lot, SELL LIMIT 2 LOT down again n BUY 1 lot - EA Reqd 5 replies

Attachments: Multi-Lot Multi-Timeframe Position trading
Exit Attachments

Multi-Lot Multi-Timeframe Position trading

  • #661
  • Jan 13, 2015 3:54pm Jan 13, 2015 3:54pm
Graviton..

Thank you very much for a very intelligent, easy to follow, logical and inspirational thread. So many threads are
a waste of time with just a lot a theory and no one making a dime. Its encouraging that you are doing something that works and are willing to share your thoughts and guidance. I hope all of us following can learn and then "pay it forward" as you so thoughtfully and generously have.
Lisa
  • #662
  • Jan 13, 2015 3:57pm Jan 13, 2015 3:57pm
Quoting Graviton
Here's a possible "sniper" entry in real time. I usually use real time examples just to show the reader that I am not cherry picking old charts to make my point. I don't expect anyone to actually take my example trades as they aren't selected for that purpose, they are only selected to make a point in real time trading. In the chart below, UCad retraces, then turns back up 1 pip below daily pivot. A possible entry point. Pivot points located here: http://www.dailyfx.com/technical_analysis/pivot_points Sometimes pivot points work. Often...
Very nice analysis. Especially I like the fact that you use live setups.
  • #663
  • Jan 13, 2015 6:53pm Jan 13, 2015 6:53pm
Quoting marypipins
Graviton.. Thank you very much for a very intelligent, easy to follow, logical and inspirational thread. So many threads are a waste of time with just a lot a theory and no one making a dime. Its encouraging that you are doing something that works and are willing to share your thoughts and guidance. I hope all of us following can learn and then "pay it forward" as you so thoughtfully and generously have. Lisa
Thanks for the kind words Mary. Feel free to ask any questions or make any comments you wish. Best success.

G
  • #664
  • Jan 13, 2015 6:55pm Jan 13, 2015 6:55pm
Quoting IBreakOut
{quote} Very nice analysis. Especially I like the fact that you use live setups.
Glad you liked it IBreakOut. Of course, I selected a pair that had ALL longer timeframes trending up. As you know from previous posts, those are the only ones I trade.
Have a good evening.

G
  • #665
  • Edited 9:21pm Jan 13, 2015 8:48pm | Edited 9:21pm
I mentioned earlier that the market would try to shake you out of good trades. There are technical reasons for that, so it's not a giant conspiracy by market demons, but the effect is the same. It takes rock solid determination to stay in a good trade when the market is shaking like a dog trying to take a bone away to try and get you to bail out of your trade. This happens about half the time or more, so expect it and hang tough. Once the shakeouts are over, the weak traders are gone and price can continue it's good move with the longer term trend. See the attempted shakeout points marked in the UCad trade below. After the last one, price pops up 30 pips into profit.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UCad Shakeout.PNG Size: 58 KB


This is a special trade. It was selected because it was special. It has strong fundamental backing (falling oil price) and every timeframe from 15M through Monthly is trending up with both the RSI above 50% and the 5 ema crossed above the 10 sma. Typically there are several of these each year and we want to make the most of them when we find one. Just a few of these can make good profits for the whole year. I entered it a little more than a month ago and now have 6 lots running long in it and it should run further.

I'm anticipating another such trade in the EU short and I have already established a position in that one a week ago. The fundamental driver behind that trade is the need for the ECB to implement QE to offset deflation in the European economy. This is something that the ECB has never done and some question if they even have the power to do it. I'm thinking that if they can pull it off, the EU could drop to parity with the USD, a drop of 1700 pips or so. I like to bet on the side of the guys who own the printing presses. I'll discuss this a bit more later. Time to get some sleep now. zzzzzzzzzzzzzz~~
  • #666
  • Jan 13, 2015 9:31pm Jan 13, 2015 9:31pm
Quoting IBreakOut
{quote} Hi setoeric, I like your setups. If I am right G said if we see many good setups he sticks with the best ones. Which ones did you choose? I liked mostly GU short and GN short. On my watchlist I have EU, AN and CN. The NZD may finish the retracements and give good signals. IBO PS: funny how many new people join the thread in the last days!
Hey IBreakOut,

My entry rules are slightly different than Graviton.

Entry price doesn't matter as much because as long as the currency is trending, over time, I will make profit.
What really kills you is stop loss (that's why Graviton stresses that exit is important)

So in order to survive, I use wider stop and not break even as quickly (30 - 50 pips for UCad and 70 pips for JPYs)
(Previously, I was trying to break even whenever I earn 2 pips and looking back, it was really dumb because price always come back and take me out)

I would like to place my stop at a place where it would survive the short term fluctuations over time. Base on my research and observation, the market usually retraces over 80% for each swing (on an hour chart). So I place my stop loss underneath the previous dip.

If I can see a new dip has formed and price has retrace and starting to continue with the existing trend, then I enter.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 12 KB


So every new dip that forms on the hour chart, I enter one lot. So:

1. If the market is forming higher lows in an up trend, I would be adding more positions with a rising stop lossas the market forms new dips.

2. If the market is just ranging, I would notice and which I can choose between waiting for another dip or enter twice if it is forming a double top.

It's hard to pin point an entry price.
It's easier for me to place a stop underneath a DIP.

So I give room for my entry to be wrong.

Hope that helps =)

Eric
  • #667
  • Edited Jan 14, 2015 12:06am Jan 13, 2015 9:37pm | Edited Jan 14, 2015 12:06am
Quoting Graviton
So if it gives you a 5% edge, don't worry over the 45% of the time it doesn't work. Just get rich off the 55% of the time it does work A possible SL would be just below the 50% fib and S1 support level and just below the Big Round Number 1.1900, ...{image}
Great analysis Graviton !

I was away from my desktop during that time and an in depth analysis like yours. I just eye-balled it and like you said - if it will be rising more likely than not =), I will give it a shot.

I entered one trade anyways and UCad just went up and never came back. I guess that was pure luck!



For the past two days, I got to build two positions for GBP JPY.

Hoping that GU will start dropping now.

Happy Pipping.
Eric
  • #668
  • Jan 14, 2015 3:10am Jan 14, 2015 3:10am
Thanks for the answers Graviton and Eric!

As we are talking about live fundamental and technical factors, maybe a good topic would be the fall of the JPY, it can be a good opportunity to discuss loosing trades, where the SL was for the different long positions, or maybe you just want to sit through with some positions the retracement.

Besides that, I write a new question for Grav so I get some answers which I find important :-)

4. In the beginning of the thread you wrote you do not understand why at hedge funds traders are celebrated for their "great achievement" of a 25-30% yearly return when it is not that hard to do a lot better. Those return are not that huge of a performance (you wrote it with other words). Lately you talk more and more about how the best traders in the world make 25-30% ROI/year and they could a lot more, but they want to reduce their risk. So there is some contradiction. Although this part is not connected that much to the topic of the thread but maybe you can make it clear to me, what kind of a return do you find good and what is a great performance in your opinion.

Thanks and keep up the great work,

IBO
  • #669
  • Jan 14, 2015 10:20am Jan 14, 2015 10:20am
Hi G,

I have another question, it is not even on my list :-) Can you please look at the NAT GAS chart today? As we are looking from the technical perspective, the name of the commodity or currency doesn't matter. So I entered a trade yesterday and today I wanted to re-enter as it was going great into my direction. I wanted to wait for a 38.2% or 50.0% retracement but it never came! If you look at the chart, I wanted to have a re-entry today and the most of a retracement was 23.6% and in the end I chose to enter the trade on one of those as my original position is very far away from my second lot. If I wait for a large retracement in a such strong trend, it might never come and I miss it all. Without a retracement though it is hard to find the best entry. Can you tell me what you have done exactly on the commodity if you looked for a re-entry today?

Thanks,

IBO
  • #670
  • Jan 14, 2015 10:52am Jan 14, 2015 10:52am
I was looking at the xxx/JPY index this morning, and see the index has performed a 61% retracement from the big move up (around Oct lows to recent highs). This is the overall index ... individual pairs may be different. Now may be a time to enter some long xxx/JPY positions with SL below recent daily lows or a bit lower, for a long term holding period. xxx/JPY historically trends up from around now to mid April each year.

Regards,
EZ
  • #671
  • Jan 14, 2015 11:15am Jan 14, 2015 11:15am
EURUSD possible sharp rally here. If you have been reading the financial news, the USD is a very crowded trade with many hedge funds long. What everyone is typically on one side, occasionally many exit within a short period of time because of some catalyst, and the price reverses quickly for a few days (1-3 usually). I think this may happen in EU because:

(1) USD retail sales huge miss (bad for USD)
(2) European Court of Justice Ruling news out, but muted response for EUR falling (so news is priced in)
(3) Huge Option put volume at 1.17: http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/fx/o...rest/main.html

Look at Feb contracts, and put/call vol. With such a high put OI here at 1.17, the people that wrote the puts want to defend that level, so will buy on the spot market to defend it. Look at price action how it spiked up from above 1.17. This will continue till options expire. If that level breaches though to the downside before expiration, the folks that bought on the spot market now have a huge loss on those positions, and also they will need to also pay out on the options (so 2x losing), so they will exit the spot longs and it will really crater below 1.17.

So right now 1.17 is critical support ... but I anticipate a decent rally from here for the reasons above.

EZ
  • #672
  • Edited 4:18pm Jan 14, 2015 12:16pm | Edited 4:18pm
Quoting IBreakOut
Thanks for the answers Graviton and Eric! As we are talking about live fundamental and technical factors, maybe a good topic would be the fall of the JPY, it can be a good opportunity to discuss loosing trades, where the SL was for the different long positions, or maybe you just want to sit through with some positions the retracement. Besides that, I write a new question for Grav so I get some answers which I find important :-) 4. In the beginning of the thread you wrote you do not understand why at hedge funds traders are celebrated for their "great...
LOL, when I'm winning 30% return sounds like a very easy target, when I'm losing, I'd be very happy with 30%.

Really, risk management has a big effect on returns. When you are managing your own account, you can withstand a 15 to 20% drawdown to go on and make a 50% return in the end, accepting the risk. When managers are managing others funds, a 20% drawdown would cause a panic and a rush to the exits, probably forcing the managers to liquidate positions at the very bottom. In the end, if you are making 20 to 30% with very low drawdowns that's very good and as good as the best traders in the world. You don't have to accept totally unreasonable risk to achieve better returns, but probably more risk than most managed funds would be comfortable with. Out for meetings for a bit. I'll get to your other comments when I get back to my computer. Happy Trading.

G
  • #673
  • Jan 14, 2015 4:33pm Jan 14, 2015 4:33pm
Quoting IBreakOut
Hi G, I have another question, it is not even on my list :-) Can you please look at the NAT GAS chart today? As we are looking from the technical perspective, the name of the commodity or currency doesn't matter. So I entered a trade yesterday and today I wanted to re-enter as it was going great into my direction. I wanted to wait for a 38.2% or 50.0% retracement but it never came! If you look at the chart, I wanted to have a re-entry today and the most of a retracement was 23.6% and in the end I chose to enter the trade on one of those as my original...
You are going short? If so, once price has dropped well beyond my desired entry point and is still falling hard, I'd just go ahead and enter. You can drop way down to like the 15M or even 5M chart to try to help time your entry, but it probably wont make that much difference unless you are a super scalper. If price should happen to start a retrace just after entry, you have the option of quickly exiting and then waiting for the retracement to end to re-enter at a better price, or just ride it out and depend on the trend to kick back in and fix it. You need to decide which path you intend to take before you put the next lot on though.

G
  • #674
  • Jan 14, 2015 4:44pm Jan 14, 2015 4:44pm
Quoting Graviton
{quote} You are going short? If so, once price has dropped well beyond my desired entry point and is still falling hard, I'd just go ahead and enter. You can drop way down to like the 15M or even 5M chart to try to help time your entry, but it probably wont make that much difference unless you are a super scalper. If price should happen to start a retrace just after entry, you have the option of quickly exiting and then waiting for the retracement to end to re-enter at a better price, or just ride it out and depend on the trend to kick back in and...
Sorry G, good question, I forgot to mention I entered a long trade. I do accept if you give some critic because it is against the main trend. I watched this trade from many perspective when to enter long and the timing was good. The uptrend today was very strong and I did not find the right retracements to enter. I do not know how long the upside move holds but I am ready to get out if it is only a couple of days. I do not want to go very deeply where and how was the analysis of NAT GAS because it does not really belong to the topic here and it would create a bit spam content IMO.

So if you look at the 30M and 15M charts there are few retracements to the upside and if there are then they are either too close to my earlier position or the distance is too far between. For this I need a possible solution. You might have some ideas.

Thanks,
IBO
  • #675
  • Jan 14, 2015 4:44pm Jan 14, 2015 4:44pm
Quoting ezcurrency
I was looking at the xxx/JPY index this morning, and see the index has performed a 61% retracement from the big move up (around Oct lows to recent highs). This is the overall index ... individual pairs may be different. Now may be a time to enter some long xxx/JPY positions with SL below recent daily lows or a bit lower, for a long term holding period. xxx/JPY historically trends up from around now to mid April each year. Regards, EZ
Yes, I've been watching it. My concern is the BOJ has said they will implement more QE this year. If they do, I could get caught on the wrong side of central bank action. I'm just watching it for now. If you do decide to take it and BOJ does make a QE move, I'd advise to just bail out as fast as you can regardless. In my opinion, there is no future in trading against a central bank.
  • #676
  • Edited 5:26pm Jan 14, 2015 4:55pm | Edited 5:26pm
Quoting IBreakOut
{quote} Sorry G, good question, I forgot to mention I entered a long trade. I do accept if you give some critic because it is against the main trend. I watched this trade from many perspective when to enter long and the timing was good. The uptrend today was very strong and I did not find the right retracements to enter. I do not know how long the upside move holds but I am ready to get out if it is only a couple of days. I do not want to go very deeply where and how was the analysis of NAT GAS because it does not really belong to the topic here...
Yes, it's a counter-trend trade, but if you are going to take it, put a fairly tight sl on and exit manually before it hits the stop if it retraces just as you enter. It will either go up or down right after entry. If it goes up you have some breathing room. If it goes down cut your loss very short so you can try again after the retracement ends. If you do bail out with a small loss, try to get back in after the retracement ends with a better price than you had last time. Try dropping to a shorter TF to time your entry. That's about all I have. I've won on some counter trend trades, but my long term record isn't good on them. Perhaps you should look at the recent deep retracement against the longer term downtrend as just giving you a good entry opportunity into the main trend, when this deep retracement ends?

Looking at the chart. It looks like an exponential retracement against the main trend. There are some very small pull backs in the rise, sometimes that's all you get. Be careful though. All exponentials must fail.
  • #677
  • Edited 5:16pm Jan 14, 2015 5:05pm | Edited 5:16pm
Quoting ezcurrency
EURUSD possible sharp rally here. If you have been reading the financial news, the USD is a very crowded trade with many hedge funds long. What everyone is typically on one side, occasionally many exit within a short period of time because of some catalyst, and the price reverses quickly for a few days (1-3 usually). I think this may happen in EU because: (1) USD retail sales huge miss (bad for USD) (2) European Court of Justice Ruling news out, but muted response for EUR falling (so news is priced in) (3) Huge Option put volume at 1.17: http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/fx/o...rest/main.html...
LOL, I'm short 4 lots EU. I don't see any good reason why the Euro will improve. Perhaps the USD will fall though. That's a possibility.
  • #678
  • Jan 14, 2015 5:15pm Jan 14, 2015 5:15pm
Yes, for EU long, I don't see a huge rally ... maybe 200 - 300 pips at the most. At that point I'd reshort.

As for xxx/JPY trades, I looked at the 61% retracement, and saw US stock market was getting clobbered today, but at the time xxx/JPY pairs holding up ok. I longed for some long term holds (till April or so), and currently up on the following xxx/JPY longs:

AJ 60 pips
CJ 35 pips
CHFJ 60 pips
EJ 75 pips
GJ 120 pips
NJ 30 pips
UJ 60 pips

As it starts an uptrend, I'll add on retraces ... these are the first of many positions ... I think JPY is fundamentally going to go down, so xxx/JPY up . Monthly trend is up also.

EZ
  • #679
  • Jan 14, 2015 5:27pm Jan 14, 2015 5:27pm
Quoting Graviton
{quote} Yes, it's a counter-trend trade, but if you are going to take it, put a fairly tight sl on and exit manually before it hits the stop if it retraces just as you enter. It will either go up or down right after entry. If it goes up you have some breathing room. If it goes down cut your loss very short so you can try again after the retracement ends. If you do bail out with a small loss, try to get back in after the retracement ends with a better price than you had last time. Try dropping to a shorter TF to time your entry. That's about all...
Ok, thanks for the help. As I have already more positions, I use your rules and cannot lose with the trade. However at my broker I cannot have different exits for the different parts of the trade (!!stupid thing!!) so I have to exit them all together or one-by-one but manually. Most trades are exited when I am not at a computer so this gives me the only possibility to exit it at the same price but it will be no loss. I will see tomorrow morning how this upward movement works. Although the main trend is down but commodities are so cheap, I do not like to go short on them.

I like the thread a lot,

IBO

PS: question will be still coming from tomorrow :-)
  • #680
  • Jan 14, 2015 5:58pm Jan 14, 2015 5:58pm
Quoting ezcurrency
Yes, for EU long, I don't see a huge rally ... maybe 200 - 300 pips at the most. At that point I'd reshort. As for xxx/JPY trades, I looked at the 61% retracement, and saw US stock market was getting clobbered today, but at the time xxx/JPY pairs holding up ok. I longed for some long term holds (till April or so), and currently up on the following xxx/JPY longs: AJ 60 pips CJ 35 pips CHFJ 60 pips EJ 75 pips GJ 120 pips NJ 30 pips UJ 60 pips As it starts an uptrend, I'll add on retraces ... these are the first of many positions ... I think JPY is...
Oh, I see. You were talking about JPY pairs going up. Not Yen going up. Yea, I could see that.
2 traders viewing now