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Multi-Lot Multi-Timeframe Position trading

  • #641
  • Jan 11, 2015 7:12pm Jan 11, 2015 7:12pm
Quoting setoeric12
Just want to share my analysis here after learning so much from Graviton So out of all the currencies that are "trending/ranging" I believe that USD CAD has the best trending potential (even tho it has already trended for 120 days - 4 months) Maybe if we can hop on and get more pips - we should. Here's the chart for USD CAD (The way I spot a trend is to use BB Band SD 1 on weekly and daily, if price is outside of the BB band then we have a trend) {image} After that, I zoom into H1 chart to see if it is actually above BB bands as well. As you can...
Nice technique setoeric. Impressive. :-)

EDIT: I saw your stop technique and have edited the post. Sorry 'bout that.
  • #642
  • Jan 12, 2015 9:27am Jan 12, 2015 9:27am
Quoting Pipskateer
{quote} I'm just reading the first few pages of your post and this is just EXCELLENT material... Exactly what I'm looking to do with my Millipede structure to cure the short term drawdown blues while building those long term legs. Thanks for detailing this!! EDIT: I just re-read this post. This is just so amazingly STUPID SIMPLE. I can't even begin to believe I've never seen this potential before. No more trading like a scared rabbit and getting OUT of a profitable trade IN FEAR when the market is moving in my favor. THANKS AGAIN for this HUGE paradigm...
Glad you found something useful here Pipskater. Thanks for the feedback. Best success to you.

G
  • #643
  • Jan 12, 2015 9:51am Jan 12, 2015 9:51am
Quoting Piquant
Hi Graviton, First of all, thanks for sharing your knowledge. I find it immensely valueable so are traders who stop by and ask questions. I have been reading your thread for a while now, haven't done just yet. There's so much to catch up still ! However thought I'd start asking questions instead of sitting on the sidelines. I have been using your method, I've tried it out mostly on lower TFs. Indicator wise, I use the exact same. 5ema, 10ema along with RSI (9). Thus far I have had more losers than winners. The only few positions that were able to...
Hi Piquant. I've had the same problem as you on the lower timeframes. News flash moves have the same impact on those lower timeframes as on the higher ones, but the underlying trend has less affect due to the shorter time that it has to move price. The result is as you say, a lot of chaos. My best trades now run 1 to 5 weeks. I'm using the shorter timeframes to aid in entries, but after that I'm mostly watching the H4 and Daily. As far as indicators go, I'm sure it's quite possible to trade this method without any indicators. The longer timeframe trends are very apparent on the daily, weekly and monthly charts. If you are trading with the longer term trend, then it's just a matter of balancing the need to stay with the trade long enough for it to pay off vs. cutting losses short to never have a large loss. For me, a large loss is around 100 pips, so I'll always bail before I hit what I call a "large loss". News flashes can easily pop price 30 to 50 pips, so you have to be able to ride those out long enough for the longer term trend to move price to survive. Good entries help a lot, but even the best entry can fail unexpectedly. I discuss multiple timeframes in several places in my posts and suggest using them as the best compromise for entries. Once you are able to make entries that survive the initial price chaos and hang in there long enough for the trend to affect price, you've made it. Feel free to ask more questions. Best success.

G
  • #644
  • Jan 12, 2015 9:57am Jan 12, 2015 9:57am
I said I'd update my UCad long trade taken a month ago, so here it is today. I've added a 6th lot on this trade at about 100 pip spacing. The first (bottom) lot is now +300 pips and I intend to take it off very soon for a nice profit and let the other 5 continue to run.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UCad 6-lot.PNG Size: 52 KB
  • #645
  • Jan 12, 2015 10:19am Jan 12, 2015 10:19am
Quoting ezcurrency
Now here is the same analysis, but lets say there is a fundamental bias of an upward trend, so now the probability of 1 (up) is 0.55, and probability of -1 (down) is 0.45. Nice uptrends! This supports the idea that we want to have the fundamentals behind the reason for our trade! :-) EZ
Excellent analysis EZ. Thanks for putting the time in to present this.

G
  • #646
  • Jan 12, 2015 10:25am Jan 12, 2015 10:25am
Quoting Copernicus
Great thread Graviton and a marvellous post ezcurrency. This forum is such a big beast and I am not sure why I didn't see this thread earlier. Your great examples ezcurrency clearly demonstrate the power that a subtle component of non-random bias has on an otherwise random price sample. I have been interested in this feature as on the long term timeframes, this bias cumulates to have a powerful effect on driving the longer term price moves. I suspect that this bias is not linear and is actually compounded due to the cause and effect nature of participants...
Welcome to the thread Copernicus. I support the use of fundamental analysis to help discern the difference between random price movements and a real trend. It's not hard to do these days given all the information on the web and it usually produces my very best long term trades. Best success to you.

G
  • #647
  • Jan 12, 2015 10:55am Jan 12, 2015 10:55am
Quoting IBreakOut
Hi Graviton, I got a suggestion from the other site you were before, to come here and read your thread, because it would suite to my trading style. I am an active member of that other site. I read your whole thread, from the very first post until the last. I started last December and read strictly 20 posts/day so I can think about the issues and digest it all I think I have a good overview how you trade it and what is your methodology. Hopefully I did not miss out any important points. Along the way I wrote down all my questions, thought about them...

Good question. There are several goals in this thread. I do believe that many minds are better than any one, and that by working together we can trade better than any one person could by themselves. I have on occasion seen trading ideas or methods recommended by others on this thread and profited from them, so I know it can be beneficial. I also use this thread to organize my thoughts about trading. Nothing organizes your thoughts like trying to write them down where others can understand them and question any inconsistencies. The feedback I get from readers is invaluable and often brings up subjects that I wouldn't have thought through completely on my own. Trading has always been a dynamic exercise for me. I don't have one single method for all situations in all trades in all markets. My trading evolves (slowly) in minor ways over time with the markets. I think that markets evolve slowly, and ones trading must evolve as well to continue to be effective. Of course, trading can be a solitary profession, so I do enjoy the social interaction of discussing a common interest with other traders.


I'm perfectly willing to consider opinions different from my own, and in fact I welcome them. Early on in this thread I did have a situation where I posted an example trade and someone accused me of recommending the trade after the price had already moved, essentially being dishonest with the readers. I recognized the poster as a troll and immediately put him on ignore. Other than that one case, everyone has been very positive and the contributions of the readers have been invaluable to the success of the thread. So feel free to present counter-arguments to any of my logic, point out inconsistencies or suggest any improvements. That all contributes to everyone's success. Next question?

G
  • #648
  • Jan 12, 2015 11:08am Jan 12, 2015 11:08am
Quoting setoeric12
Just want to share my analysis here after learning so much from Graviton So out of all the currencies that are "trending/ranging" I believe that USD CAD has the best trending potential (even tho it has already trended for 120 days - 4 months) ...Happy Trading. Eric
I agree with your analysis. This trend will probably end somewhere around the next s/r seen on the monthly chart, up 300 to 400 pips, but until then, it has good fundamental reasons (oil price) for making more pips. Best success.

G
  • #649
  • Jan 12, 2015 11:25am Jan 12, 2015 11:25am
Hi Graviton,

thanks a lot for your detailed answer. It answers for the question perfectly. I do believe I can soon contribute good to the thread. I would like to have 1 more thing clear before I kick off:

2. I did not read your original thread in the other forum. As I see it was also quite long (I checked it though). Did you present important information in the other thread that you did not present here?
If you suggest to read the other thread too, then I first work myself through that one too, before I start working here.

Thanks,
IBO
  • #650
  • Jan 12, 2015 12:11pm Jan 12, 2015 12:11pm
Quoting IBreakOut
Hi Graviton, thanks a lot for your detailed answer. It answers for the question perfectly. I do believe I can soon contribute good to the thread. I would like to have 1 more thing clear before I kick off: 2. I did not read your original thread in the other forum. As I see it was also quite long (I checked it though). Did you present important information in the other thread that you did not present here? If you suggest to read the other thread too, then I first work myself through that one too, before I start working here. Thanks, IBO
My other thread was more geared to novice traders and included lots of basic things like creating a trading plan. My trading has evolved since then and it has been greatly simplified. I will try to include all relevant points in this thread so I don't think reading the other thread will be of much benefit.

G
  • #651
  • Jan 13, 2015 1:31am Jan 13, 2015 1:31am
Quoting Graviton
{quote} I agree with your analysis. This trend will probably end somewhere around the next s/r seen on the monthly chart, up 300 to 400 pips, but until then, it has good fundamental reasons (oil price) for making more pips. Best success. G
Hey Graviton,

Thanks =) I also have been entering during this up trend. Currently 4-5 lots - just updating my status from my previous reply.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 70 KB


This is the hour chart - and after learning from you & adding a few elements of my own, trading becomes pretty simple =)

(I really enjoy taking the oldest lot and then adding the new one: this keeps me in the trend and realizing profit)

I also tried to put a lot on other currencies like EJ GJ & AJ but didn't get to build one that last.

but it seems like AU is starting to trend down - I got one lot in. ( I am also waiting for EU and GU to start trending again.
  • #652
  • Jan 13, 2015 2:36am Jan 13, 2015 2:36am
Hi Graviton and all the members participating in this great thread, just signed up, and wanted to say a big thank you , been reading this thread from the beginning, taken a while to get here and learned a lot along the way. Its been, long, detailed and very enjoyable like a good book. Had my first 100 pip day on EU short after 3 months of trading a micro account on Thursday, thanks to your post

Looking forward to participating in the discussion ahead. In the meantime its waiting waiting waiting.
  • #653
  • Jan 13, 2015 3:06am Jan 13, 2015 3:06am
Quoting setoeric12
{quote} Hey Graviton, Thanks =) I also have been entering during this up trend. Currently 4-5 lots - just updating my status from my previous reply. {image} This is the hour chart - and after learning from you & adding a few elements of my own, trading becomes pretty simple =) (I really enjoy taking the oldest lot and then adding the new one: this keeps me in the trend and realizing profit) I also tried to put a lot on other currencies like EJ GJ & AJ but didn't get to build one that last. but it seems like AU is starting to trend down - I got one...
Hi setoeric,

I like your setups. If I am right G said if we see many good setups he sticks with the best ones. Which ones did you choose? I liked mostly GU short and GN short. On my watchlist I have EU, AN and CN. The NZD may finish the retracements and give good signals.

IBO

PS: funny how many new people join the thread in the last days!
  • #654
  • Jan 13, 2015 3:17am Jan 13, 2015 3:17am
Good morning Gravitor,
I'm reading carefully all the thread but i'm at page 16 (full time job)

First of all thanks for your knowledge sharing, i'm impressed.
I have a question, i hope it has not been posted yet:

I have a huge problem in entries. I have an impressive rate of failures, such that i'm almost thinking of entry long when i want to short and the way around.

I'm interested in profiting consistently, maybe 5/6 % /month, but i can't see charts all the day. I'm willing to wake up half an hour earlier in the morning before job but i would like to trade only on H4+ timeframes. I can see charts early in the morning and in the evening so i was thinking:

Is there any way to adjust this system and find entries only on those timeframes? I would like not to use big stops, i prefer to be a sniper. Willing to wait the right moment but, still, an objective method is missing.

Do you have any advice for me?

Many thanks, please keep posting!!!

greetings from a 25 years old italian Young bank worker
  • #655
  • Jan 13, 2015 4:36am Jan 13, 2015 4:36am
Hi G,

here is the next question (unfortunately I forgot to write down the post numbers earlier. It is a pity, because I cannot exactly tell where you wrote the things I ask):

3. You said 1-2 times in the thread that you follow 24 pairs. Now if we combine the 8 major currencies traded then we get a combination of 28 pairs. This means you are not trading 4 of them. Why is that and which pairs don't you trade?
As your system is based on the trend, I suppose EUR/CHF is one of the 4 pairs you do not trade as it is mostly ranging in a tight range because of the peg. But I have no idea what are the other 3 pairs and what is the reason behind it.

Thanks,

IBO
  • #656
  • Jan 13, 2015 8:55am Jan 13, 2015 8:55am
Quoting setoeric12
{quote} Hey Graviton, Thanks =) I also have been entering during this up trend. Currently 4-5 lots - just updating my status from my previous reply. {image} This is the hour chart - and after learning from you & adding a few elements of my own, trading becomes pretty simple =) (I really enjoy taking the oldest lot and then adding the new one: this keeps me in the trend and realizing profit) I also tried to put a lot on other currencies like EJ GJ & AJ but didn't get to build one that last. but it seems like AU is starting to trend down - I got one...
Steady as she goes Setoeric. It takes a long time for the trend to have an effect on the trade. Best success.

G
  • #657
  • Jan 13, 2015 8:57am Jan 13, 2015 8:57am
Quoting McPoint
Hi Graviton and all the members participating in this great thread, just signed up, and wanted to say a big thank you , been reading this thread from the beginning, taken a while to get here and learned a lot along the way. Its been, long, detailed and very enjoyable like a good book. Had my first 100 pip day on EU short after 3 months of trading a micro account on Thursday, thanks to your post Looking forward to participating in the discussion ahead. In the meantime its waiting waiting waiting.
Congrats on the win McPoint and welcome to the thread.

G
  • #658
  • Edited 10:44am Jan 13, 2015 10:14am | Edited 10:44am
Quoting lemming78
Good morning Gravitor, I'm reading carefully all the thread but i'm at page 16 (full time job) First of all thanks for your knowledge sharing, i'm impressed. I have a question, i hope it has not been posted yet: I have a huge problem in entries. I have an impressive rate of failures, such that i'm almost thinking of entry long when i want to short and the way around. I'm interested in profiting consistently, maybe 5/6 % /month, but i can't see charts all the day. I'm willing to wake up half an hour earlier in the morning before job but i would...

Greetings Lemming78. If you are trading longer term you will have to be able to withstand the short term intrinsic volatility of the market to get a good entry. I can only give you some general guidelines and you can refine them to suit your trading style. If you are checking the markets twice a day, once in the morning before work and in the evening after work, a sl of about one Daily ATR is needed to keep you in the trade if it's a good entry. How much that is depends on the pair. For UCad it's 75 pips, but for GJ it's 162 pips. If you aren't comfortable with the risk, either reduce your position size or just don't take the trade. That's just a general number and it needs to be refined. Putting the sl well under the last major retracement is something I like to do. I also look at the .50 and .00 Big Round Numbers, like 1.1900 or 1.1950, as well as pivot points, fibs and 50, 100 and 200 period moving averages for clues as to where to set a stop loss. Often price will respect the same support over and over, but often it's not the same support from one trade to the next. So it might repeatedly respect a pivot point on one trade and the prior major retracement on another and a fib on the next. You can try plotting many different things to find out which one(s) it's currently respecting, then use that and ignore the rest.

Additionally, only trade pairs that you understand WHY the price is moving as it is. For instance, we have been following the long UCad trade here recently. We understand that as oil prices drop, most of the USA benefits due to lower fuel costs and most of Canada suffers due to lower revenues from oil exploration and exports. That means USD up and CAD down, or long UCad on both top and bottom pairs.

To snipe in the longer TF's, drop down to the M15. Look for solid uptrends in all timeframes above the M15, avoid any major financial announcement times in either the top of bottom pair. Wait until you get a fall in price (for a long trade) at least 1 X H4 ATR which should happen about once every day or two. Enter after price turns back up off a support. If that doesn't work for you, move up a timeframe to the M30 and try it, if that doesn't work, try the H1. As you move up, you'll get fewer entry opportunities, but they will be more reliable. Always make sure ALL higher timeframes are consistently trending in the direction of your trade. The market will play "chicken" with weak traders. It will try to shake them out of a good trade before moving higher. Usually the best entries occur just after the weakest traders have all been shaken out of the trade in a deep retracement.

If you are having problems with entries, reduce your position size all the way down to 0.01 lot per trade until you are getting better ones over a long period of time. Expect that to take a good bit of practice and it can be very frustrating for a very long time until you find a method that perfectly suits your trading style. The top 100 hedge fund managers in the world averaged 17% return all of last year after fees. The top 10 averaged about 20% after fees. Your goal of beating their average returns will probably take years of study and practice. If you enjoy the effort, that's great, but if you'd rather spend the next 5 years with family and friends, then look for other investments that require less time and produce good long term gains with less frustration. Best success.

G
  • #659
  • Jan 13, 2015 10:25am Jan 13, 2015 10:25am
Quoting IBreakOut
Hi G, here is the next question (unfortunately I forgot to write down the post numbers earlier. It is a pity, because I cannot exactly tell where you wrote the things I ask): 3. You said 1-2 times in the thread that you follow 24 pairs. Now if we combine the 8 major currencies traded then we get a combination of 28 pairs. This means you are not trading 4 of them. Why is that and which pairs don't you trade? As your system is based on the trend, I suppose EUR/CHF is one of the 4 pairs you do not trade as it is mostly ranging in a tight range because...
Yes, you are correct. I have 28 pairs on my board and I don't trade EChf. I hadn't counted them in a long time and my old broker didn't carry a few crosses. Thanks for the correction!

G
  • #660
  • Edited 2:32pm Jan 13, 2015 11:24am | Edited 2:32pm
Here's a possible "sniper" entry in real time. I usually use real time examples just to show the reader that I am not cherry picking old charts to make my point. I don't expect anyone to actually take my example trades as they aren't selected for that purpose, they are only selected to make a point in real time trading. In the chart below, UCad retraces, then turns back up 1 pip below daily pivot. A possible entry point. Pivot points located here:
http://www.dailyfx.com/technical_analysis/pivot_points

Sometimes pivot points work. Often they don't. Usually something will work, but not the same thing all the time. Try lots of things for that particular trade and see what's been working for it. Large traders tend to use the same thing over and over, so if it works once, often it will work again, giving some indication of what price will do in the future. Past performance does not always indicate future results, but since traders are human and humans are creatures of habit, sometimes it will and we only need a small edge to make a big profit over time. So if it gives you a 5% edge, don't worry over the 45% of the time it doesn't work. Just get rich off the 55% of the time it does work

A possible SL would be just below the 50% fib and S1 support level and just below the Big Round Number 1.1900, say about 1.1870 for a sl of about 75 pips, or around 1 times daily atr.

Note that price turned back up one pip above the 61.8% fib and one pip below the daily pivot point, right in between those two supports, as if traders couldn't decide which to use, so they split the difference. Well...maybe. But if the large traders are using fibs or pivots to guide their trading in this particular pair at this very moment, then the next move up might go to the next fib extension, about 1.2061 at 161.8%, or the next R1 or R2 point at 1.2019 or 1.2065, as given in the table I linked to above, and it will be interesting to see if traders adhere to those resistance points.

I'm not saying that there is anything magic about fibs or pivot points, there isn't. I'm not saying they will always work or even work most of the time, they wont. I'm just saying that if, and perhaps that's a very speculative if, but if large traders are using them to make decisions on this particular trade, then they might have some value to us in this situation. Price could just as easily be bouncing off a 100 sma or some other support, but it isn't in this case. I'm certainly not saying this is the trade of the century. I'm just using it as an example to show how I'd logically try to create a trade setup. Almost half of the setups might fail and I have no idea how this one will work out, but just a small edge like this can generate a very nice profit over time.


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UCad Pivot Turn.PNG Size: 42 KB
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