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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #51,401
  • Jan 13, 2015 7:11am Jan 13, 2015 7:11am
Quoting phil13
{quote} Hi fti You are far from being retarded my friend, all the great things you have achieved and you are the only one who has been able to show me and many others the way to make this work . that is a feat in itself considering i hardly ever went to school. . regards Phil.
oh i didn't mean retarded in mind.
retarded from profession.

great that you getting the pips.
keep collecting, wil become very useful when need risk.

regards
  • #51,402
  • Jan 13, 2015 7:21am Jan 13, 2015 7:21am
Quoting fti
{quote} what? plan b stuff were never discussed? anyway options positions cannot be bias, only user can become if they chose to. The options held is not reflect of the real exposure. The delta is. regards
hi fti, happy new year.

plan b stuff was discussed, but the lost of the opportunity cost is quite painful, well to me at least.

yes, the user is the one which the bias stems from, i feel that each mo is unique to the trader, which stems from their own experiences and their own scorpions and the mo crystallizes to become a way to cope with the markets, in essence to manage themselves better in the markets. and options are the tools in the trader's toolbox. the mo a trader gravitate to is a reflection of how he naturally inclines to trade.

the reaveraging process against the option is a way to balance the delta of the overall net position deltas.
  • #51,403
  • Jan 13, 2015 7:32am Jan 13, 2015 7:32am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} hi fti, happy new year. plan b stuff was discussed, but the lost of the opportunity cost is quite painful, well to me at least. yes, the user is the one which the bias stems from, i feel that each mo is unique to the trader, which stems from their own experiences and their own scorpions and the mo crystallizes to become a way to cope with the markets, in essence to manage themselves better in the markets. and options are the tools in the trader's toolbox. the mo a trader gravitate to is a reflection of how he naturally inclines to trade....

like i said many time.
It not benefits discuss corp strategies, in retail trading.
These long sword strategies is meant for sized books only.
Does nothing for small books.
Please excuse.

regards
  • #51,404
  • Jan 13, 2015 7:34am Jan 13, 2015 7:34am
Quoting fti
{quote} like i said many time. It not benefits discuss corp strategies, in retail trading. Please excuse. regards
hi fti, please do not apologize, i am sharing what i learnt as a way to give back to the thread, which helped me in learning to trade.
  • #51,405
  • Jan 13, 2015 7:35am Jan 13, 2015 7:35am
Quoting fti
{quote} oh i didn't mean retarded in mind. retarded from profession. great that you getting the pips. keep collecting, wil become very useful when need risk. regards
Hi fti

ooopps sorry my my friend .

looking at Yen now, still not sure what direction at the moment, but looks like it wants to move, i will carry on watching for now not trying to pinch bottoms this early in the year.

regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #51,406
  • Edited 7:52am Jan 13, 2015 7:39am | Edited 7:52am
Quoting phil13
{quote} Hi fti ooopps sorry my my friend . looking at Yen now, still not sure what direction at the moment, but looks like it wants to move, i will carry on watching for now not trying to pinch bottoms this early in the year. regards Phil.
noted.
Try trade normal as day to day livelihood.
Just beware if see large hedges creep into markets.
If range saucers around the zone too long, be mindful that hedgers may had creeped into markets invisible.
So be nimble and not get too hard in the arteries and marry the positions.
Just stay within self defined risk parameters , and function normally. Let the markets deal with the ABnomalities.
Only allow what you spotted market reactions, be your market strategy advantage.


regards
  • #51,407
  • Jan 13, 2015 7:54am Jan 13, 2015 7:54am
Quoting fti
{quote} noted. Try trade normal as day to day livelihood. Just beware if see large hedges creep into markets. If range saucers around the zone too long, be mindful that hedgers may had creeped into markets invisible. So be nimble and not get too hard in the arteries and marry the positions. Just stay within self defined risk parameters , and function normally. Let the markets deal with the ABnomalities. regards

Hi fti

thank you very much for the advice my friend.

of course as always you are right, if i have difficulty reading the situation i should wait for/find easier trades as i have been doing... too much thought = confusion.

regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #51,408
  • Edited 8:11am Jan 13, 2015 7:55am | Edited 8:11am
Quoting phil13
{quote} Hi fti thank you very much for the advice my friend. of course as always you are right, if i have difficulty reading the situation i should wait for/find easier trades as i have been doing... too much thought = confusion. regards Phil.

Good fortune.

regards

Oh, by the way. santana's prodigy.
wow very high voltage.

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  • #51,409
  • Jan 13, 2015 8:41am Jan 13, 2015 8:41am
just save but I try very hard to put my head in the mouth
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don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
  • #51,410
  • Jan 13, 2015 8:47am Jan 13, 2015 8:47am
couple of early scouts in, let see, starting to look like US may want some dollars.....

looking for further signs in other pairs.

regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #51,411
  • Jan 13, 2015 8:48am Jan 13, 2015 8:48am
ok mind scrambled, now need reset.


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regards
  • #51,412
  • Jan 13, 2015 8:49am Jan 13, 2015 8:49am
Quoting phil13
couple of early scouts in, let see, starting to look like US may want some dollars..... looking for further signs in other pairs. regards Phil.
seems is euro crosses.

regards
  • #51,413
  • Jan 13, 2015 8:51am Jan 13, 2015 8:51am
Quoting priceaction1
just save but I try very hard to put my head in the mouth {image}

itchy backside? too good ka, life.


regards
  • #51,414
  • Jan 13, 2015 8:58am Jan 13, 2015 8:58am
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  • #51,415
  • Jan 13, 2015 9:01am Jan 13, 2015 9:01am
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  • #51,416
  • Jan 13, 2015 9:49am Jan 13, 2015 9:49am
killed my scouts.... G/U + N/U

regards

Phil.

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-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #51,417
  • Jan 13, 2015 9:50am Jan 13, 2015 9:50am
Quoting fti
{quote} noted. Try trade normal as day to day livelihood. Just beware if see large hedges creep into markets. If range saucers around the zone too long, be mindful that hedgers may had creeped into markets invisible. So be nimble and not get too hard in the arteries and marry the positions. Just stay within self defined risk parameters , and function normally. Let the markets deal with the ABnomalities. Only allow what you spotted market reactions, be your market strategy advantage. regards
Hi Chief,

how can I train myself to see hedgers creeping in like SWAT? Are there any visual cues that I can look for?

Also for EURGBP, can I understand that when GBP and EUR correlation drop means somebody probably buying selling cross instead of normal pair? When cross in play instead of the norm pair, is there anything to take note of? What difference does it make?

Thank you so much !
Wayne
  • #51,418
  • Edited 11:30am Jan 13, 2015 10:28am | Edited 11:30am
Quoting foobar
{quote} Hi Chief, how can I train myself to see hedgers creeping in like SWAT? Are there any visual cues that I can look for? Also for EURGBP, can I understand that when GBP and EUR correlation drop means somebody probably buying selling cross instead of normal pair? When cross in play instead of the norm pair, is there anything to take note of? What difference does it make? Thank you so much ! Wayne
Not something that can be trained. Can feel. Pay attention to change in market tempo and fast shades.
Is like watching fig releases.Observe change in feel, then respond test waters.
Can know only after the fact. So ability respond with position tests is key.
Only market makers can see the trucks coming. If they jump, you don't stand there looking at lights in tunnel, hoping is not an on coming train.

Do not be aggresive unless have lots $ dance find out. normally after the fiasco you can see double triple SS/RRs.

When hedgers comes into market, they huge, so they no want scutter markets. They do slow consistent pumps allow market satuarate.
You see long pins on charts, then is mostly some one trying to get out of their hits. esp at key levels.

remember, if market makers hit, its suicidal they tell anyone. Anyway, they would be too busy eascaping. You just need learn recognise their behaviours.


regards

what i do if i suspect something, is i put scouts out see how it fill.
is the checking the market process.
You know that if bid are given , you not get fills until offer overruns you order.
same with offers.you only get fills when bid overuns your offer.
Where they slow fill you means market makers standing in front of you there.

about crosses. in reality there is no cross markets. small market.
from cross market behaviours you can have educated guess which side the market makers got hit in the spot.
There no rules, you need keep observing for consistent actions and deviations from norm relationships.
always test waters few times before jump in. No one can kiss 1 frog and find prince charming.
  • #51,419
  • Jan 13, 2015 3:43pm Jan 13, 2015 3:43pm
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} hi fti, please do not apologize, i am sharing what i learnt as a way to give back to the thread, which helped me in learning to trade.
Noted.
But i like you to understand that i am not trying to be unkind.
You must understand that different Corps have different risk profiles.
Some are hedgers, some arbitragers and they have different risk portfolios.
Is best one train with one's managers in line with the risk outlook they wish undertake.

So is not wise i talk about any corp strategies as i do not know your corp risk profile.
Could be dangerous for me teach you create speculative risk portfolio which may not be in line with your managers objectives.
Moreover there myrid models each corp tailor for their dealers control their portfolios.
And like i mentioned. To do the synthetics, one need large books. Is very unproductive for small players to engage.

regards
  • #51,420
  • Jan 13, 2015 8:05pm Jan 13, 2015 8:05pm
Quoting fti
{quote} Not something that can be trained. Can feel. Pay attention to change in market tempo and fast shades. Is like watching fig releases.Observe change in feel, then respond test waters. Can know only after the fact. So ability respond with position tests is key. Only market makers can see the trucks coming. If they jump, you don't stand there looking at lights in tunnel, hoping is not an on coming train. Do not be aggresive unless have lots $ dance find out. normally after the fiasco you can see double triple SS/RRs. When hedgers comes into...

FTI, I really cant thank you enough for nuggets like this.

Gam Bei
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