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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #28,681
  • Jan 8, 2015 8:57am Jan 8, 2015 8:57am
EURJPY

Hi
Only my second post and thought I'd share my 4th trade (EURJPY) on Phillip Airways with real money after weeks of going through the fab posts (from post 1!). I'm upto post 3,500 and of course keeping upto date with the recent posts here.

My rationale for getting in:

a) Downward trend (sub 89)
b) Signal candle broke downwards between 8 and 21 on the 4H. TC signal.
c) Just a few minutes before 10am (my candle close time GMT) MACD turned red. 1H MACD was also red.
d) No hurdles or barriers to the lower TL.
d) Take Profit was to the trendline, Stop Loss just above the signal candle.
e) I therefore set a trailing stop of 65 pips and a TP of 89 at a RR of 1.27.

I'm now out of the trade.

I've been struggling with timing my exits while trying not to give anything back to the market.

How it worked out:
- Went into profit pretty quick.
- Price hovered at about +10 pips for about 3 hours up until US open.
- Then price dropped to +31 pips profit. I decided, on a whim, to bank 50% at this point as MACD turned green and was weary of a LH. I moved my trailing stop +15pips.
- The price moved up and the TS kicked in for a close of +16 pips at the remaining 50%.

I'm of course very happy that it ended positive but my concern is that I was prepared to risk 65 pips and settled for an average +25.5.
It will take 1 loss to wipe out 3 successful trades.

So did I enter correctly? Did others take this trade?
Was the Signal bar too big to enter?
Is this how most people would've exited?
Perhaps I should've moved my SL to break even?

Really look forward to hearing for you.

Much thanks
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #28,682
  • Jan 8, 2015 12:58pm Jan 8, 2015 12:58pm
Predprinimatel attempt to buy EURUSD.
The reason for the transaction:
1) the Price on the monthly level
2) On the Daily chart large shadows candles
3) MACD shows a double bottom
4) there is no important news.
the plan deals:
1) Stop under at least
2) the Profit will take 21 and 89 moving.
http://s020.radikal.ru/i704/1501/f7/66ccaf754a57.jpg
http://s009.radikal.ru/i309/1501/a5/178246925330.jpg
  • #28,683
  • Jan 8, 2015 2:57pm Jan 8, 2015 2:57pm
Quoting nic73
AUDUSD Spotted this - 3 little sister. Hopefully, I am correct and the 3rd sister will form.{image}
Well spotted. I am on it...I call your chart an "ALARM". Making pips becomes as well very easy if one can be early to spot a nice setup when it is still at the "ALARM" stage (that is when the setup is beginning to form), and get focused and start doing analysis based on what is in front of you and pulling the trigger when it is ripe to do so.

It is also very important to consider higher time frames in your analysis so as to know at what stage some interferences my build up against anticipated move. I have seen very nice setups, and every thing was just perfect in front of me, but eventually it failed...this is normally due to certain heavy barrier levels from the higher time frames that was not considered...

Thanks for posting.
  • #28,684
  • Jan 8, 2015 7:22pm Jan 8, 2015 7:22pm
Quoting naustingfx
{quote} Well spotted. I am on it...I call your chart an "ALARM". Making pips becomes as well very easy if one can be early to spot a nice setup when it is still at the "ALARM" stage (that is when the setup is beginning to form), and get focused and start doing analysis based on what is in front of you and pulling the trigger when it is ripe to do so. It is also very important to consider higher time frames in your analysis so as to know at what stage some interferences my build up against anticipated move. I have seen very nice setups, and every...
Hi Nau,

I am in it too but not looking good. Keeping my fingers cross and hope for the best. Contemplating perhaps I should sell off at BE or minimal loss. A few RED news on Friday including US unemployment claim. What do you say?
  • #28,685
  • Jan 8, 2015 9:03pm Jan 8, 2015 9:03pm
AUDUSD update from post 28680 and 28684:

Trade stopped out. Lost 30pips . Market is now above 89sma, the bull is on for now.
  • #28,686
  • Jan 9, 2015 7:14am Jan 9, 2015 7:14am
NFP in 15 mins
  • #28,687
  • Jan 9, 2015 12:05pm Jan 9, 2015 12:05pm
Quoting nic73
AUDUSD update from post 28680 and 28684: Trade stopped out. Lost 30pips . Market is now above 89sma, the bull is on for now.
Hi, have you seen how little sisters look in D1 chart? Seem price was resting around 0.8060 after major decline. Then move lost its force on D1 MACD and MACD H4 showed divergence at the same time.
Strange day today due to not clear NFP picture Have a nice weekend!
  • #28,688
  • Jan 9, 2015 12:10pm Jan 9, 2015 12:10pm
150107AUDUSD :
I had lost in that pair. I totally neglected the divergence in the macd, too cemented in a bearish mode, too bad!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 150207AUDUSD.png Size: 101 KB
Yvon
  • #28,689
  • Jan 10, 2015 7:48pm Jan 10, 2015 7:48pm
Quoting onarticus
EURJPY Hi Only my second post and thought I'd share my 4th trade (EURJPY) on Phillip Airways with real money after weeks of going through the fab posts (from post 1!). I'm upto post 3,500 and of course keeping upto date with the recent posts here. My rationale for getting in: a) Downward trend (sub 89) b) Signal candle broke downwards between 8 and 21 on the 4H. TC signal. c) Just a few minutes before 10am (my candle close time GMT) MACD turned red. 1H MACD was also red. d) No hurdles or barriers to the lower TL. d) Take Profit was to the trendline,...
Hi Buddy - I have gone over your chart & comments and offer my 2cents as follows:
The 8ma is controlling the speed recently so as per Phillip's rules, you have decided to use this as your signal. Personally I look for the 21 to give me my signal. Rythym says that when price breaks up thru the 21 from below in a downtrend, there is a strong chance that it will pull back to it before heading off to the 89. Price did not get to the 21 in your case so the Downtrend remains intact. There is nothing wrong with your entry & in fact it looks pretty strong. Price has taken a picnic lunch
( consolidation ) during its journey South and you have jumped onboard as it heads off again ( TC).
Your question of Candle size has been talked about often throughout the thread. It is a personal thing when setting R:R's and Stops etc. We all know that generally, price does retrace on most bars/candles. So the question then becomes - how much pain can you stand ? Again - for me personally, my pain thresh-hold is 30 - 40 max. So if the signal candle is very large, I will just set a 30pip Stoploss +/- and trust my signal and the anticipation of a good trade. Other traders use a Fib retracement of the signal bar so to each his own I guess.
I recall that there was a suggestion earlier in the thread that we quit 1/2 at a predetermined level & move the rest to B/E as soon as possible but this may have been during discussions on Countertrend trades ?? Your trade did experience some bumps but if you could handle the pain , there is a good chance that your lower T/Line Support target could get hit.
The only other things I pay attention to are the BRN"s. Your entry was sitting right above the 141.00 . You will need to look back in time at larger TimeFrames to see whether this level has played a significant part in history.

All I can say is " well done chum ". If this was your only trade last week, you did well. I have not entered anything since pre-xmas and that week was not too great.
3 Losses and a bit of a recovery with 1 reasonable win. Wrong time of year in hindsight - will know for later this year LOL.
Hope this helps buddy - sing out if I have confused the issue at all.

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  • #28,690
  • Jan 10, 2015 7:57pm Jan 10, 2015 7:57pm
Quoting trademin
150107AUDUSD : I had lost in that pair. I totally neglected the divergence in the macd, too cemented in a bearish mode, too bad! {image}
Happy New Year Yvon - isn't it great to see our new family members arrive . I bet this will bring a wee smile to Phillip.

I have been sitting watching this one too my friend - did not play though. My take is that we might see some more Bears come out to play but who knows?? All this news & turmoil around has really changed the way the markets move - certainly not nice & smooth the way we would like them.

Here is my 6pence worth - see what you reckon..

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  • #28,691
  • Jan 11, 2015 3:57am Jan 11, 2015 3:57am
Quoting onarticus
EURJPY Hi Only my second post and thought I'd share my 4th trade (EURJPY) on Phillip Airways with real money after weeks of going through the fab posts (from post 1!). I'm upto post 3,500 and of course keeping upto date with the recent posts here. My rationale for getting in: a) Downward trend (sub 89) b) Signal candle broke downwards between 8 and 21 on the 4H. TC signal. c) Just a few minutes before 10am (my candle close time GMT) MACD turned red. 1H MACD was also red. d) No hurdles or barriers to the lower TL. d) Take Profit was to the trendline,...

The Power of 1Hour Early Entry Strategy!


Hi, happy Sunday to you and family!

Here is my take on the post you had made on the EurJpy trade that you took. I have attached your chart to my own chart. I downloaded your chart and have used it as part of my explanation to your post or trade. I also zoomed a part of your chart which I used as part of my analysis in the explanation.

I think all details are clearly expressed in the comprehensive chart below. But if there is anything you still want me to clarify on, do come back to me. I an hopefully other here will for sure be of help.

God bless.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EurJpy Jan 8-ornaticus.png Size: 314 KB
  • #28,692
  • Jan 11, 2015 6:58am Jan 11, 2015 6:58am
Quoting nic73
AUDUSD Spotted this - 3 little sister. Hopefully, I am correct and the 3rd sister will form.{image}
Hi nic73,

I wanted to reply you earlier, but I needed to put up a detailed information of what actually happened in this trade that we took...how I got involved and how I got out at about -8pips loss. In fact, I just want to use this opportunity to touch certain things which I know is very important. I don't want to give just a "few words" reply. I have read through other nice contributions made by trademin, binnie,...

I am almost through with my charts and typing....I will post in less that an hour from now.

Thanks.
  • #28,693
  • Jan 11, 2015 2:05pm Jan 11, 2015 2:05pm
Quoting naustingfx
{quote} The Power of 1Hour Early Entry Strategy! Hi, happy Sunday to you and family! Here is my take on the post you had made on the EurJpy trade that you took. I have attached your chart to my own chart. I downloaded your chart and have used it as part of my explanation to your post or trade. I also zoomed a part of your chart which I used as part of my analysis in the explanation. I think all details are clearly expressed in the comprehensive chart below. But if there is anything you still want me to clarify on, do come back to me. I an hopefully...
Thankyou my friend,
The early entry technique is on my " to learn list " so I am watching with much interest. Looks simple when a good trader explains it like this.
  • #28,694
  • Jan 11, 2015 2:42pm Jan 11, 2015 2:42pm

COMPREHENSIVE ANALYSIS TO THE AUDUSD TRADE: JANUARY 8, 2015


Here comes my reply with very detailed charts and explanation and a microsoft word document of much more detailed explanation and analysis not only on the audusd trade, but more insight on how i weigh scenarios in the forex market. The post from a trader here "nic73" encouraged me to do this. Thanks to him for posting his anticipation on the pair above.

I pray that this whole work will make meaning to anyone that goes through them in jesus name!

God bless you all!
God bless phillip!!
Happy trading to everyone!!!
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD initial trend lines for the 3 sisters H4 1.png Size: 109 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD 3 little sister trendline adjusted H4 2.png Size: 107 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD-The Real direction 3.png Size: 101 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD COMPREHENSIVE-reason for price reversal 4.png Size: 111 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD DAILY and 4HOUR side-by-side-5.jpg Size: 99 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: docx THE 3 LITTLE SISTERS TRADE ON JAN 8. WHY IT DID NOT WORK OUT.docx   599 KB | 731 downloads
  • #28,695
  • Jan 11, 2015 6:58pm Jan 11, 2015 6:58pm
Quoting naustingfx
COMPREHENSIVE ANALYSIS TO THE AUDUSD TRADE: JANUARY 8, 2015 Here comes my reply with very detailed charts and explanation and a microsoft word document of much more detailed explanation and analysis not only on the audusd trade, but more insight on how i weigh scenarios in the forex market. The post from a trader here "nic73" encouraged me to do this. Thanks to him for posting his anticipation on the pair above. I pray that this whole work will make meaning to anyone that goes through them in jesus name! God bless you all! God bless phillip!! Happy...
great post Nausting,
I used the longer trendline in my expectation of it being a strong resistance and possible turn down to continue the Downtrend. Not to be ( Just yet LOL ). In the short term, my view has changed to bullish for a wee bit longer - or at least an attempt on the 200ma before a possible rollover and continuation South.
I have got this pair on a close watch now and am just preparing PlanA & PlanB.
If there is a pullback to the shorter term T/Line and the BRN 0.8200, we could have a look at playing towards the 200. Not many pips but 50 - 60 with a small Stop just back under the confluence at the 8200 so might be a nice chance here.
My PlanB remains the Macd trigger - a Nice RT from the overbought level would convince me to play Short & get back in with the overall DAILY Trend.

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  • #28,696
  • Jan 11, 2015 9:39pm Jan 11, 2015 9:39pm
Nau, saw your post 28694. I was thinking hard on this loss trying to figure out where I have gone wrong. Your reply answered my question. I guess I have done my bit to analysis the chart which I saw the possibility of a 3 little sisters pattern. Again it's only a possibility for forex is about probability. So in this case the 3rd sister didn't quite make it for there was to be a change in direction for a short time. i could have made up for the losses by observing the pullback to the trend line and move away and take the trade from there. Thanks for your insight on this. I now for know how else to make up for losses in the future. You make my day.
  • #28,698
  • Jan 12, 2015 8:35am Jan 12, 2015 8:35am
Quoting naustingfx
{quote} The Power of 1Hour Early Entry Strategy! Hi, happy Sunday to you and family! Here is my take on the post you had made on the EurJpy trade that you took. I have attached your chart to my own chart. I downloaded your chart and have used it as part of my explanation to your post or trade. I also zoomed a part of your chart which I used as part of my analysis in the explanation. I think all details are clearly expressed in the comprehensive chart below. But if there is anything you still want me to clarify on, do come back to me. I an hopefully...
Thank you very much Binnie and nausingfx for your most excellent reply and analysis.
  • #28,699
  • Edited Jan 14, 2015 6:43am Jan 13, 2015 3:20pm | Edited Jan 14, 2015 6:43am
well , guys! you have been doing a lot of work over there!---I'll take time to read it. At first sight, looks well explained!
here I just saw a possibility in EURGBP, that I have seen late but still some meat taken out already and could have some more left in it!

. But again, there is a break of 21ema( A), then a pull back (B) and a move away (C)
While there is a HS: price broke the neckline, then a weak pull back to it, then a move away.
25 pips secured
partial closed : gain 25 pips

and the 4hrs view on the second chart

150113EURGBP
I took the Trade on a pull back to the 8 ema (red), while the price made his pull back to the 89sma(purple)
About 60 pips gain total
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Yvon
  • #28,700
  • Jan 14, 2015 11:18pm Jan 14, 2015 11:18pm
Hi everyone,

Just like to say thanks to everyone and phil for the great information, I'm a few hundred posts in and plenty more to go.
Just started learning this new strategy. Opened up a demo account that I'm going to run with for a few months to see how i go.

EURGPB first trade. Looks like we should see a retrace to the 8 EMA
not looking for a big pip return on this trade. still reading and just wanting to see if the retrace to the 8 EMA is correct.

-trade- 0.77280
-stoploss- 0.7713

edit- must note, i went into this trade as its at a resistance level shown with the red line thats stands on the 1D and 1W charts.
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