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Help Me Establish The GbpUsd After Dinner Club 40 replies

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  • #17,101
  • Jan 10, 2015 2:38pm Jan 10, 2015 2:38pm
GBPJPY

EW analysis

long term

can anyone show me a chart with price history as long back as possible? I have only data back to 1993

I found one old chart from Prechter, where he had labeled the 251 peak in 2007 as end of a wave 4.

Normally his long term charts are extremely good researched, so I trust him here.

According to that, the low @ 116.882 is the end of a wave 5.


The recent move up, when finished, can be labeled as wave 1 or A

Now it seems, that we have finished wave 3 (blue 3) of this wave 1 or A.

The following wave 4 should find support in the 175.5 to 164 area


Have never traded this pair. But I am astonished, how clear the waves are.


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  • #17,102
  • Jan 10, 2015 2:58pm Jan 10, 2015 2:58pm
http://www.federalreserve.gov/moneta...bl20141217.pdf


Economic Projections of Federal Reserve Board Members and Federal Reserve Bank Presidents, December 2014
  • #17,103
  • Jan 10, 2015 4:45pm Jan 10, 2015 4:45pm
Quoting infinitus
GBPJPY EW analysis long term can anyone show me a chart with price history as long back as possible? I have only data back to 1993 I found one old chart from Prechter, where he had labeled the 251 peak in 2007 as end of a wave 4. Normally his long term charts are extremely good researched, so I trust him here. According to that, the low @ 116.882 is the end of a wave 5. The recent move up, when finished, can be labeled as wave 1 or A Now it seems, that we have finished wave 3 (blue 3) of this wave 1 or A. The following wave 4 should find support...
here are u cowboy ( if u need any zoom or a modification let me know:
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  • #17,104
  • Jan 10, 2015 5:14pm Jan 10, 2015 5:14pm
Quoting tahshoon
{quote} here are u cowboy ( if u need any zoom or a modification let me know: {image} {image}

holy shit, is that high LOL


thank you very much

unfortunately, it is not long enough to make an educated guess
  • #17,105
  • Jan 10, 2015 5:32pm Jan 10, 2015 5:32pm
Another great reading:

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau.../picture-5.jpg
Oil Price Blowback: Is Putin Creating A New World Order?
  • #17,106
  • Jan 10, 2015 5:35pm Jan 10, 2015 5:35pm
http://www.takeoverworld.info/grandchessboard.html

Zbigniew Brzezinski

The Grand Chessboard

American Primacy And It's Geostrategic Imperatives


you can download the whole book there
  • #17,107
  • Jan 10, 2015 6:07pm Jan 10, 2015 6:07pm
Quoting chess king
{quote}
Thx Bro.

Quoting chess king
my lost .. {image}
Look like your loss might have a chance to turn profitable or at least minimized now
  • #17,108
  • Jan 11, 2015 2:53am Jan 11, 2015 2:53am
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-0...japans-economy

Princes Of The Yen - How Central Banks 'Transformed' Japan's Economy


Inserted Video
  • #17,109
  • Jan 11, 2015 6:36am Jan 11, 2015 6:36am
Gold

Many of the Elliotticans have the wave 5 down already finished. I am not convinced .

I would like to see Gold at least touch the 1100 support shelf, or beterthe 1000-900 area.

In case of an extended 5, quiet normal in Gold, targets could easily be in the 650-700 vicinity.

A break above 1292 will confirm, that the wave blue 5 was already in place.

A break above 1345 will confirm that the wave red 5 was already in place.
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  • #17,110
  • Jan 11, 2015 6:46am Jan 11, 2015 6:46am
Quoting infinitus
Gold Many of the Elliotticans have the wave 5 down already finished. I am not convinced . I would like to see Gold at least touch the 1100 support shelf, or beterthe 1000-900 area. In case of an extended 5, quiet normal in Gold, targets could easily be in the 650-700 vicinity. A break above 1292 will confirm, that the wave blue 5 was already in place. A break above 1345 will confirm that the wave red 5 was already in place. {image} {image}
Yeh agree, i am not convinced on this bottom either. Structure kinda is bullish more than bear but still wave wise i see maybe up fake break for 50ish bucks and then down very possible. But its very shallow speculation so i am not taking any kind of longer trades based of that view.
  • #17,111
  • Edited 8:38am Jan 11, 2015 8:27am | Edited 8:38am
Quoting infinitus
But I am astonished, how clear the waves are.
I have just admitted to myself I am a spammer, so If I start to bug too much on your peacefull thread, please let me know.

But I have this theory regarding issue: We were already talking about my nonscence Tom waves. I still use them btw . Theory behind this is that the more market is traded, the more it evolves. Original EW count was made for equities in 30s. Though underlying behaviour of people doesnt evolve that fast, markets do. So the more evolved - traded - market, the more evolved EW, but still on the same base - behavioral finance. So, one could assume world investors dont care about GJ that much, so perhaps market moves more like it used to.

Could be nonscence tough, as I think whole FX market should be evolving at +- same speed. Doesnt have to. Who knows, not me.

edit: And btw, Tyler classics, I really like this guy. Nice article.
Quoting infinitus
Another great reading: Oil Price Blowback: Is Putin Creating A New World Order?
Tough as usually, Tyler heavily exagerrates. It is still fun and he almost always provides lots of data and - more importantly - different angle of view.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #17,112
  • Jan 11, 2015 8:35am Jan 11, 2015 8:35am
Long and intermediate term count of USDJPY

In October 2011 UJ has finished a long lasting impulse down.

Since then we are in an impulsive structure up.

Since the ongoing wave 5 has developed strong momentum, we can not rule out, that we have to switch the count to a more bullish 1-2, 1-2, 1-2 picture.

Sentiment for JPY is to date not that bearish, that we could bet on a more deeper correction.

Right now I think that UJ is tracing out a wave red 4. When this is finished we can calculate better targets to the upside. To date I think, that the wave red 5 may go to between roughly 125, extended 130

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  • #17,113
  • Jan 11, 2015 8:48am Jan 11, 2015 8:48am
Infinitus, please you think you could send me timeserie of that UJ? I got it only from 2002. .xls .csv .txt, doesnt matter. I would like to try putting it into that wave nonscence of mine .

Btw, perhaps you read here somwhere I ve made it back to school. And, guess, what I ve found out. Students got access to Reuters Eikon . Cant wait to learn how to use it properly.

edit: Ideal Daily, but not sure if you have Daily for such a long time back.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #17,114
  • Jan 11, 2015 8:49am Jan 11, 2015 8:49am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} I have just admitted to myself I am a spammer, so If I start to bug too much on your peacefull thread, please let me know. But I have this theory regarding issue: We were already talking about my nonscence Tom waves. I still use them btw . Theory behind this is that the more market is traded, the more it evolves. Original EW count was made for equities in 30s. Though underlying behaviour of people doesnt evolve that fast, markets do. So the more evolved - traded - market, the more evolved EW, but still on the same base - behavioral finance....

Hi Tom,

you can spam as much as you like - thats the purpose of Clubs LOL

You are welcome


Do not know if you have read my answers to questions related to HEW, Wolfe Wave etc. in the EURUSD forum yesterday.

Basically: what ever floats your boats. Or: I think that nearly any system can work, when money management is working.

But I told also, that I do not see advantages in the bastardized EW versions against traditional EW.

You wrote:


Though underlying behaviour of people doesnt evolve that fast, markets do

In my view a non-starter, because who is the market? The market are the people, their collective brain, we.......


When EW structures are not that clear, the first reason for it is always "corrective behaviour". Sometimes, on the first view, structures like big impulses, but in fact they are larger WXY pattern.

EW on currencies is a delicate topic, because it is not one currency we do trade, it is two, a pair.

This can lead to structures, which are not so clear as we would like to see.


Let us think for a moment:

EURUSD vs. USDEUR

when the first is in impulsive 1-2-3-4-5 mode, the second should be in corrective ABC-mode

Is that possible?


I am thinking about that for quite a long time, and the only solution for this problem seems to be, that we have to count currencies only in terms of corrective structures.


Any opinions are more than welcome........
  • #17,115
  • Jan 11, 2015 8:55am Jan 11, 2015 8:55am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Infinitus, please you think you could send me timeserie of that UJ? I got it only from 2002. .xls .csv .txt, doesnt matter. I would like to try putting it into that wave nonscence of mine . Btw, perhaps you read here somwhere I ve made it back to school. And, guess, what I ve found out. Students got access to Reuters Eikon . Cant wait to learn how to use it properly. edit: Ideal Daily, but not sure if you have Daily for such a long time back. T

Welcome back in school

Should consider it, too. For a free Reuters ICON, and think of all the bloody young female students

Have to ask again D.P. for a job


Here we go for unlimited time series:

http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/engli...ch/historical/

Here you can decide for yourself what to get. Duka has one of the best historical feeds on the market (at least that is what I heard, read etc.)

my goes back to 1986
  • #17,116
  • Jan 11, 2015 9:08am Jan 11, 2015 9:08am
Over the next days I will long term count many instruments and publish the counts here and on my blog @ http://singulorum001.blogspot.de/

On my blog I have tagged the counts, so one is able to find them easily when needed
  • #17,117
  • Jan 11, 2015 9:09am Jan 11, 2015 9:09am
Quoting infinitus
Do not know if you have read my answers to questions related to HEW, Wolfe Wave etc. in the EURUSD forum yesterday.
Yes, I have read it. No, i did not understand, because your knowledge of EW is far above mine. I am just grabing pieces I like and learning.

Quoting infinitus
You wrote: Though underlying behaviour of people doesnt evolve that fast, markets do In my view a non-starter, because who is the market? The market are the people, their collective brain, we.......
They are, but the theory behind this is here (see, philosopher - not trader): The more market is traded, the more cash. The more cash, the more people, the more fear, the more greed. Also, the more technologies to reap huge profits. Also profits lurk in more people unaware of market conditions, coz it becomes wide known. The result is, that on the most liquid markets, like E/U, it is a) much easier for investment public to become investment herd and so herd behaviour is amplified b) technologies and bastards are taking advantage of it and work with the herd. Both of these will imo result in market overshots above traditional wave count.

Quoting infinitus
Let us think for a moment: EURUSD vs. USDEUR when the first is in impulsive 1-2-3-4-5 mode, the second should be in corrective ABC-mode Is that possible? I am thinking about that for quite a long time, and the only solution for this problem seems to be, that we have to count currencies only in terms of corrective structures. Any opinions are more than welcome........
Yes, thats a very valid point as well. I dont agree at all with 5 waves up and 3 down. Thats just weird. I agree herd moves in cerain waves and simmilar conditions will make simmilar waves. So all I do is am comparing wave structures with past scenarios in simmilar circumstances. At least I try, coz am unfortunately still not good enough in history.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #17,118
  • Jan 11, 2015 9:20am Jan 11, 2015 9:20am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} Yes, I have read it. No, i did not understand, because your knowledge of EW is far above mine. I am just grabing pieces I like and learning. {quote} They are, but the theory behind this is here (see, philosopher - not trader): The more market is traded, the more cash. The more cash, the more people, the more fear, the more greed. Also, the more technologies to reap huge profits. Also profits lurk in more people unaware of market conditions, coz it becomes wide known. The result is, that on the most liquid markets, like E/U, it is a) much...

Hehehe, I see we are basically in the same boat.

Very valid: the more an instrument is traded (or better: the more individual people an instrument trade), the better we can judge the herding behaviour.

Sometimes I see EW counts on thin traded instruments/stocks and can only shake my head.

EW is about the psychology of masses (or swarms, if you like)
  • #17,119
  • Jan 11, 2015 9:38am Jan 11, 2015 9:38am
Quoting infinitus
Long and intermediate term count of USDJPY In October 2011 UJ has finished a long lasting impulse down. Since then we are in an impulsive structure up. Since the ongoing wave 5 has developed strong momentum, we can not rule out, that we have to switch the count to a more bullish 1-2, 1-2, 1-2 picture. Sentiment for JPY is to date not that bearish, that we could bet on a more deeper correction. Right now I think that UJ is tracing out a wave red 4. When this is finished we can calculate better targets to the upside. To date I think, that the wave...
Uj this whole wave up structure to me says more up, but the question is where should retracement on downside end before more up comes. Gatorinla sees deep down to 114, and looking on weekly chart that defenetly seems very possible. I am at moment bear on it h1 and down but i have no idea how much further down, lower tfs tell me when to step aside.

GU this riding line should tell where to go next week break on upside should open up move, but significant bounce eg 40 pips would seriously mess up view.
http://prntscr.com/5r6jwj

Pepperoni has reached my target down line up to pip, now i wait for upper red line to give for longs otherwise i stay flat.
http://prntscr.com/5r6ksa

Brent above 51 is long but i dont long. I only wait to get bear again and short.
  • #17,120
  • Edited 12:50pm Jan 11, 2015 11:53am | Edited 12:50pm
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my view,talking about GBPJPY :
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