Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading

USDJPY

$US is strong, Japan not meeting economic and fiscal targets so JPY is weak which means USDJPY will rise but only when the stock market turns around and RISK is back ON.

BRNs 135 and then 145 are real possibilities in 2015

PASR

PASR in fine fettle on Dow Jones Industrial Average

Say... did anyone spot the Mantis?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

PASR

Affirmation in a PM from an on going member

Hello again Strat.
Thank you for your reply and advice. I'm glad to read that my analysis wasn't that far off. I decided to skip that trade until volumes return to normal thanks to your advice.

I wanted to share my view on the AUDJPY.
Currently I see price trap in the the Weekly Control Candle range. I believe a trader may decide to wait until price either close above resistance or below support provided by the extremes of this WCC. So for instance if price breaks support and the candle closes below 95.21, it will be time to switch to the Daily chart and look for sell opportunities.
As you have mentioned before, a trader could also decide to trade the range from extreme to extreme, provided there is a PA signal around those levels and the risk reward ratio is still acceptable. So if price gets to the upper extreme and then gives a PA signal, it would be a good time to sell given that the primary trend is down. Now, let's say price bounces from 95.21 to 98.01. This trade would also be a valid one, but counter trend, so probably should be left to more advanced traders.
Am I right Strat with this overview?

On a side note, I can see there was also a trade on that last bounce from 98.01 to 95.21, not only a resistance level, but also a Round Number, Strat Shadow and 38%Fib retracement. Certainly a very high probability trade ending pretty much at support.

Happy trading.

AUDJPY

You are correct in your analysis.

All 3 of our time frames are in a DOWN trend of one degree or another. On the BOSS, PRICE is supported by the Strat Shadow and confirmed by the Hammer of week ending December 19, 2014 in addition to being trapped inside our Weekly Control Candle.

There were 3 trades on the Worker as PRICE closed below the Strat Shadow to test recent support.

We are now WAITING to SEE where PRICE goes from here.

PASR

On reaching Lifetime Membership status, members have open access to The Forum any time. FXDrive's work commitments meant he had to take a sabbatical from trading but now he is back and welcomed with open arms.

USDJPY

A positive day so far for US stocks but is this the beginning of RISK ON or just a pull back? USDJPY shows the same recovery BUT PRICE is still trapped in our Weekly Control Candle confirming CONSOLIDATION. A break of the immediate resistance at 120.82 will challenge the resistance of the Weekly Control Candle. This will decide if the Market has moved to RISK ON or remains in RISK OFF. Failure to CLOSE above our Weekly Control Candle just puts PRICE back into consolidation.

AUDJPY

Last add on short stopped out at Break Even

Thank you for your quick reply, Strat.
That first trade you pointed out after the close below the Strat Shadow is a kind of trade I struggle a little bit still. I've noticed in previous posts an entry is in order when the close of a candle occurs above or below the Strat Shadow (provided we are trading in direction of the primary trend, etc). In this case, you do not wait for price action reversal candles to enter the trade once the candle has closed below the Strat Shadow, am I right? You just place a sell stop order at the low of the candle. I believe you are doing this due to price breaking the Strat Shadow support. Moreover, you are taking advantage of the Primary trend and the sentiment it is providing. My concern to that trade would have been the fact that price was at a level of support on the weekly, both static and dynamic. Reason why the following two days show indecision candles. I understand nobody know what price will do in the future, but is break of the the Strat Shadow on the Daily such a strong parameter for a trader applying PASR not to consider waiting how price will react at that support level? What am I missing?

I found some similarities of this on the EURAUD today, perhaps it may help me clarify this and also gives me the chance to compare notes with you.
The primary trend is DOWN although recent swings and the positive Strat Shadow shows an uptrend. Strat Shadow has just been broker by the close of the last candle by around 10 pips to the downside (to be honest, I'm not sure if 10 pips is enough to consider this break sufficient or if it is recommended for the close to be further down to be "strong enough"). Anyway, the graph is already showing that todays candle has indeed kept is move downwards, but I would think twice before placing a sell stop order as it is at a level of support, once again, static and dynamic.
As a personal thought, I believe this pair may follow its way down as it has created a Head & Shoulders pattern on the weekly, added to the downwards primary trend.

Thank you again Strat for you patience.

PASR

It seems that you are in some state of "paralysis of analysis" i.e. over thinking what your charts are telling you. If PASR tells us to sell, we sell, if PASR tells us to buy, we buy. We, and anyone else who trades, will never be right all the time and we have no idea of knowing which trade will be "right" and since trading is ONLY about probabilities, we have to, and must, take each trade.

My suggestion to you is analyse your charts, make a decision, put on the trade and leave your thinking for something else more important.

Trading Psychology

I hope this comment from one of our members helps:

AUDCHF

WAITING to SEE what PRICE does at CONFLUENCE of dynamic SR, static SR and 50% fibonacci

I did not have this chart up in my MT4. I will watch this one as well to see if we get and PA.

AUDUSD

Time for a ride up to the Strat Shadow

Looks like the weekly closed above the 50% fib. Think the 61.8% fib with confluence of the 63MA is the ticket to get this pair heading south? We shall see.

Thank you Strat. And thank you to Fxdrive too. I believe you are both right. I've develop my own Trading Plan and nothing more to do but to follow it. My questions were more intended for me to make sure I understand PASR properly.
I will go into practice mode and don't worry to get every single bit right. Just focus on the basic of PASR you have provided on The Path and this thread.
Have a good week.

Three headed Monster? *



*my version of PASR
- price struggled twice already at the 94 level
-sold, as close as possible to 94, on the third attempt


Now, obviously** I checked the higher order time frames first. (**it should be obvious to anyone who has actually READ and UNDERSTOOD this thread)



Lots of important candles on the boss in the weeks leading up to my entry: hangman/BEOB, doji, IB,SS, doji...... all screaming potential price failure at 94


And Mr BIG Boss?



Hangman preceding entry, price approaching pre 2008 highs, how long has this FLIGHTLESS kiwi previously spent in the rarefied, oxygen depleted stratosphere it is now attempting to soar in?

Yeah, yeah... you got the idea.

How long will we head south from here? I have no better idea than anyone else. All I know is that it was a relatively low risk trade with good RR from the start
AND,
I have half position off with the other half covered by profit already taken.

PA, show me the Way!

Question: Which way?



Answer: PA