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  • #881
  • Jan 5, 2015 12:04pm Jan 5, 2015 12:04pm
It seems that even bad news (bombardments of Libyan oil tankers and infrastructure) don't bother sellers. It is a falling market and nobody knows where the turning point is located. Some commodities analyst point out that Oil will never go back to its previous levels, because market changed his structure. Currently OPEC controls only 30% of total oil supply and it was 50% 10 years ago. New suppliers and lower demand will play significant role in restructuring the market in the nearest future.
  • #882
  • Jan 5, 2015 2:51pm Jan 5, 2015 2:51pm
Quoting Spec_And
The latest commitment of traders report is pretty shocking. Hedge funds doubled down on their bets as oil prices continued to crash while the commercials continued to sell into the market, presumably to hedge their production. Looks like the US shale oil companies are prepared for a long drawn out war with OPEC, this is going to be very ugly, every single bounce will be sold, it will be that way until it no longer makes sense to sell i.e they'd lose money if they sold at that price. For now several shale oil producers are still profitable, I think...
Finally went under $50 today. The COT out today shows that hedge funds are beginning to capitulate though, they have cut net longs for 2 weeks in a row, the slide from $100 is probably too much to bear for them.

Commercials continue to sell into the market, looks like there won't be anyone to sell to very soon if both large specs and commercials are looking to sell crude oil. I will be looking for a reversal from current levels, probably a daily pin bar, engulfing bar or something.
"Where you want to be is always in control, never wishing, always trading.
  • #883
  • Jan 7, 2015 12:33am Jan 7, 2015 12:33am
Shale cant be cheap...
Dunno if US Shale can keep up with current prices.
  • #884
  • Jan 7, 2015 1:34am Jan 7, 2015 1:34am
Quoting jest1081
Shale cant be cheap... Dunno if US Shale can keep up with current prices.
Maybe it can't in the long run but this won't stop crude to fall further in the short besides a low price of the most important resource is a perfect boost for world economy, oil will find a bottom and will start to rise again it just needs some time
  • #885
  • Jan 7, 2015 2:28am Jan 7, 2015 2:28am
Naturally. Shale companies runs large % of US payrolls? Selling oil at loss. Demand falling due to eurozone weakness.
Lendings can get affected, subprime pt 2?
  • #886
  • Jan 7, 2015 5:29am Jan 7, 2015 5:29am
Quoting gnomoneey
a bounce soon...... I think $46 is the area ---what do you guys see? {image}
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...58#post7977958
updated chart
Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #887
  • Jan 7, 2015 5:31am Jan 7, 2015 5:31am

Quoting atom3
{quote} Maybe it can't in the long run but this won't stop crude to fall further in the short besides a low price of the most important resource is a perfect boost for world economy, oil will find a bottom and will start to rise again it just needs some time
Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #888
  • Jan 7, 2015 5:37am Jan 7, 2015 5:37am
Read this post ....

Quoting gnomoneey
now you ask when will production be breakeven to some of the drilling sites.... http://www.businessinsider.com/citi-...prices-2014-11 Here Are The Breakeven Oil Prices For Every Drilling Project In The World {image} Myles Udland Nov. 28, 2014, 11:21 AM 122,012 43 facebook...
Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #889
  • Jan 8, 2015 6:08am Jan 8, 2015 6:08am
Seems to me today we are having a correction for the last several days of downtrend which is not over yet in my opinion
  • #890
  • Jan 8, 2015 6:19am Jan 8, 2015 6:19am
np shorting
"I'm not answering stupid questions."
  • #891
  • Jan 8, 2015 5:18pm Jan 8, 2015 5:18pm
hmm some oil rally ... maybe i will add shorts higher
"I'm not answering stupid questions."
  • #892
  • Jan 9, 2015 11:21am Jan 9, 2015 11:21am
I think BCO will go down to 35-40 before bulls take in place.
  • #893
  • Jan 12, 2015 10:28am Jan 12, 2015 10:28am
No one is posting and i wonder why am i the only one who trades crude right now ? ok so today i had a short and just closed it at 46.10 because i feel like a correction should come since the market is quite a bit sold and i am looking for another shorting opportunity just above 47$ maybe
  • #894
  • Jan 12, 2015 10:46am Jan 12, 2015 10:46am
Quoting atom3
No one is posting and i wonder why am i the only one who trades crude right now ? ok so today i had a short and just closed it at 46.10 because i feel like a correction should come since the market is quite a bit sold and i am looking for another shorting opportunity just above 47$ maybe
Im eyeing the 161.8 extension of todays move to around 50-50.8 to reload shorts this week.
To live a successful life, we must lose our fear of being wrong
  • #895
  • Jan 12, 2015 11:20am Jan 12, 2015 11:20am
Quoting atom3
No one is posting and i wonder why am i the only one who trades crude right now ? ok so today i had a short and just closed it at 46.10 because i feel like a correction should come since the market is quite a bit sold and i am looking for another shorting opportunity just above 47$ maybe
47.04 is a good resistance to watch for reaction.
Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #896
  • Jan 13, 2015 4:55am Jan 13, 2015 4:55am
Quoting jest1081
Naturally. Shale companies runs large % of US payrolls? Selling oil at loss. Demand falling due to eurozone weakness. Lendings can get affected, subprime pt 2?
They will continue to sell oil at a loss because they need the cash to meet operating expenses. In the last COT (ending 6 Jan) they again sold a massive amount of oil futures, for them to lock in prices at such low levels is indicative of the fear thats in the market right now i.e most expect oil to fall further to perhaps $30.

I think capitulation is very near, but I've yet to see any strength on the daily chart that tells me the bottom is in, there is no engulfing bar, inverted hammer, nothing, only bear flags and breakdowns while the market continues to bleed.
"Where you want to be is always in control, never wishing, always trading.
  • #897
  • Jan 13, 2015 8:34am Jan 13, 2015 8:34am
Looking for a day or two of retracement back to the 49-50 zone at least...
To live a successful life, we must lose our fear of being wrong
  • #898
  • Jan 13, 2015 8:47am Jan 13, 2015 8:47am
Needs to trade within yesterday's range (>$46) before I will consider getting long.

Still looks weak now so this is probably a bull trap.
"Where you want to be is always in control, never wishing, always trading.
  • #899
  • Jan 13, 2015 9:01am Jan 13, 2015 9:01am
Quoting Spec_And
Needs to trade within yesterday's range (>$46) before I will consider getting long. Still looks weak now so this is probably a bull trap.
Im looking for closure above 46.40 before starting to enter long towards 49-50 however power seems to be there as little as it maybe.

It is due a retracement technically. Now or later who knows.
To live a successful life, we must lose our fear of being wrong
  • #900
  • Jan 13, 2015 9:03am Jan 13, 2015 9:03am
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To live a successful life, we must lose our fear of being wrong
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